what are you selling today?

[Gregmal]

GRBK

[KJP]

Rosetta Stone

 

I've now sold essentially all of my Rosetta Stone.  A press release saying that they're exploring alternatives has increased the enterprise value of the business by 60%.  I think that says alot about both the value of the Lexia and perceptions about of current management.

[kab60]

WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside

[jschembs]

Any thoughts on CTAS as a short? Stock hitting ATHs on a surprisingly strong quarter, but given their customer base, I have to imagine the core business is going to really struggle over the next couple of years.

[Broeb22]

Trimmed TRRSF and CARR

[benchmark]

WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside

 

it's still has a 8.23% yield at the current price. W/o doing anything, it's not a shabby return.

[benchmark]

WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside

[benchmark]

WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside

[writser]

Rosetta Stone

 

I've now sold essentially all of my Rosetta Stone.  A press release saying that they're exploring alternatives has increased the enterprise value of the business by 60%.  I think that says alot about both the value of the Lexia and perceptions about of current management.

 

Well done on what seems like a good, original idea working out nicely.

[kab60]

WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside

 

it's still has a 8.23% yield at the current price. W/o doing anything, it's not a shabby return.

Nope, I think that it's very favorable in this environment, but I see more upside elsewhere. There are still some pockets where I think the market is overly focused on the short term. I'm pretty big in auto dealerships and while Asbury in the US is up 150 pct since its low, Cambria Automobiles in the UK is only up like 30 pct after dropping back lately - despite fine results and updates from peers. So just a relative valuation call, WMB looks good here and probably have more juice. With rates at these levels their assets are extremely attractive.

[Libs]

Shorted TSLA at the open. 1% position. Willing to lose 100%; i.e. will cover at $3200 / share but otherwise will be sticky.

 

I just couldn't take it any more!

[Spekulatius]

Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...

 

Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket...

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html

 

I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider.

 

The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM.

 

I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters.

[Gregmal]

Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...

 

Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket...

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html

 

I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider.

 

The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM.

 

I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters.

 

Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over.

 

Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider.

[Spekulatius]

Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...

 

Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket...

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html

 

I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider.

 

The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM.

 

I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters.

 

Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over.

 

Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider.

 

I didn’t even realize the stock is up ~25% today until now , my comment was solely based on business performance. In my opinion, they have done a great job with the Dogfish acquisition and now with Truly Selters, which at least here near their. Home base (MA) seems to be winning over White claw in terms of display. They are also grabbing market share in beers (call it craft beer or not).

Anyhow, as a consumer and just an observer how they do on retail or just looking at their financial performance, they do a great job.I can see them using their stock to roll up region craft beer producers (maybe Sierra Nevada to get a west coast stronghold) and growing organically with new products. They are clearly better operators than TAP or BUD. Eventually, they may get into spirits too.

 

The stock is overvalued, but so what. Overvaluation alonein my opinion is almost never a good reason to short something.

[jschembs]

Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...

 

Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket...

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html

 

I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider.

 

The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM.

 

I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters.

 

Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over.

 

Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider.

 

I didn’t even realize the stock is up ~25% today until now , my comment was solely based on business performance. In my opinion, they have done a great job with the Dogfish acquisition and now with Truly Selters, which at least here near their. Home base (MA) seems to be winning over White claw in terms of display. They are also grabbing market share in beers (call it craft beer or not).

Anyhow, as a consumer and just an observer how they do on retail or just looking at their financial performance, they do a great job.I can see them using their stock to roll up region craft beer producers (maybe Sierra Nevada to get a west coast stronghold) and growing organically with new products. They are clearly better operators than TAP or BUD. Eventually, they may get into spirits too.

 

The stock is overvalued, but so what. Overvaluation alonein my opinion is almost never a good reason to short something.

 

Wow, I hadn't looked at this name in a couple of years. What a ride.

 

I think they are at risk of being squeezed on both ends of the spectrum. BUD and TAP may not be the greatest operators, but their influence over retailers via their distribution heft is incredible. Just look at how BUD blows out distribution of regional microbrews they acquire. Hard for SAM to compete on that basis.

 

On the other end of the spectrum, you have the proliferation of local / regional microbreweries that will never be able to compete with SAM or BUD on distribution, but have sufficient regional name recognition that they can muscle out mediocre national brands.

 

Sam Adams is not a beer anyone I know ever talks about. You're either drinking really good local brands when you want a beer or two, or drinking the Coors Lights of the world when you're on the golf course for the day. I know SAM isn't just Sam Adams, but I just don't see how these guys have a compelling market position over the long term, and certainly wouldn't touch the equity at ~80x FCF.

[Gregmal]

Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...

 

Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket...

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html

 

I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider.

 

The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM.

 

I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters.

 

Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over.

 

Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider.

 

I didn’t even realize the stock is up ~25% today until now , my comment was solely based on business performance. In my opinion, they have done a great job with the Dogfish acquisition and now with Truly Selters, which at least here near their. Home base (MA) seems to be winning over White claw in terms of display. They are also grabbing market share in beers (call it craft beer or not).

Anyhow, as a consumer and just an observer how they do on retail or just looking at their financial performance, they do a great job.I can see them using their stock to roll up region craft beer producers (maybe Sierra Nevada to get a west coast stronghold) and growing organically with new products. They are clearly better operators than TAP or BUD. Eventually, they may get into spirits too.

 

The stock is overvalued, but so what. Overvaluation alonein my opinion is almost never a good reason to short something.

 

Yea, I definitely brought it on myself. I dont care to look back on the posts, but this was/is a pure valuation short/hedge. I added a bit more today around $800. I've got a stop at $1050 and will cost myself about 250 bps if hit. I actually did a reasonably amount of work on this some years back when the stock was trading around $175. Figured upside on a sale was $4.5B or so. Was long for a little bit. Hard to imagine Truly is a $6B brand, but who knows in todays market. I dont think this is a "great" company. But its definitely not a bad one. In relation to one of your other posts on shorting, Chanos often mentions the 3 Fs. Frauds, failures, and fads. Ive found the first two are reliable, but fads are highly subjective. One of my best longs in recent years was Sodastream, a 7x trade(left a bunch of upside on the table selling too soon) even though many thought it was an obvious fad. Fads are fads until theyre not. Will probably be the case here. Just another case of "dont short on valuation alone".

 

An acquaintance sent me an email today on this. Made a rather funny remark about how given the market, you'd think the only thing people did during lockdown was eat Wingstop and drink Sam Adams...

[lnofeisone]

Sold 60/70 bull verticals on LMND going out to march. Small tracker position.

[wisowis]

Sold OPT.TO

(Figured all the shenanigans would lead to a pop sooner rather than later. For more info on the story, I found this post: https://chaptertwelvecapital.com/post/optiva-the-perils-of-a-controlling-shareholder/ ).

[lnofeisone]

sold some UNG 9/12 Jan 22 bull spreads.

[Spekulatius]

PDLI ( thanks to wabuffo for the idea)

[Lance]

Sold calls on HL

 

Thanks

Lance

[benchmark]

PDLI ( thanks to wabuffo for the idea)

 

Why selling it now? there should still be some room to run.

[Gregmal]

sold some EDIT

[sleepydragon]

I am tempted to short Eversource.

My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.

The regulator is also pissed.

 

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/

 

 

 

[Cigarbutt]

I am tempted to short Eversource.

My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.

The regulator is also pissed.

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/

First and foremost: Good luck and i hope that 'energy' is restored rapidly. In my quarters, losing WiFi access for a few seconds has the potential to trigger an uproar and it's easy to think of the real consequences when the outage lasts more than a few hours.

This is interesting (utilities as investment targets, utilities risk management strategy for power outages, both as prevention and response and the models behind the thought process; one of my daughter's summer job is to help build a mathematical model that may be sold to the utility monopoly in my jurisdiction and that tries to assess the best strategy to deal with heavy rainfalls in relation to the distribution infrastructure).

Just skip below for a poorly substantiated comment about Eversource.

--o--

We (developed countries) take low outage rates for granted and the number of outages has been convincingly going up including (and especially?) in your great country. There is no need to believe that weather-related events are on the rise since even keeping that number constant, the growing and densifying distribution network will make sure this 'problem' is not going away. And of course, there's the elephant in the room that the American Society of Civil Engineers keeps on depicting (and quantifying): the ageing patchwork of the distribution infrastructure. The US is a large place and is submitted to an unusual array of severe meteorological phenomena, but evidence is building up that the exceptional energy setup has entered a phase of decrepitude.  Also, European countries (and my province) typically have a single regulatory body which is responsible for reliability of the entire nation’s power system which is a nagging feature but seems to be a net positive factor for 'reliability' at large. Anyways, 'public' investments will happen but i bet that private players like BRK will successfully resist the crowding out which may recede if budget constraints become fashionable again. Long term thinking may be required but tomorrow starts today in a way. It's interesting to recall that Eisenhower, during his presidency, was inspired to develop the interstate highway system as a result of an attempt (painful) to cross America by jeep decades before as an army man.

--o--

After spending just a few minutes on Eversource (market, network, policies and financials), it's possible that the stock price goes down from a momentum point of view especially if investigations reveal gross mismanagement but these episodes inevitably force politicians to 'strategically' respond in order to temper public outrage and people may realize that it can be hard to put a standard deviation on an Act of God. The fact that a smaller competitor looks good is a compounding factor though. Interestingly, the most effective short term restoration tool for the company may lie in its communications skills, a skill that is hard to assess prospectively. Typically, the long term value of utilities is rarely dented significantly by an isolated and disturbing power outage. Also, i wonder if it's a good idea to short a stock you're mad at..