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what are you selling today?


muscleman

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  • 3 weeks later...

I don’t have a position , but I would need to swallow crazy pills before pushing the buy button for $CVNA at $81.5

 

Indeed, but this is what happens when people begin revolving their investment decisions around "IM STAYIN HOME 4 GOOD!". I mean look at even what some folks here are saying... NFLX, CVNA, TDOC, NVAX, all you need to outperform for the next decade!

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Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...

 

Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket...

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html

 

I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider.

 

The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM.

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Yea....SAM is basically a value short. I am typically against these, however cash is trash and I want to remain invested in ideas I think are compelling on the long side. So I'm looking for a lot of "if this, then that" ideas. If this is bad economically, then that happens. SAM is a good shot at downside protection, if things go south. Either via sales declines or multiple contraction.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Exited all but one GOOG $1500 Jan 2022 leaps I bought about a little over month ago at 5.5 for 16.9

 

F&^k me....could I have missed out on more? Almost certainly! But damn, how can I pass this up in the short term?

 

options = increased risk/reward and emotions

 

Would you have taken profits?

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Exited all but one GOOG $1500 Jan 2022 leaps I bought about a little over month ago at 5.5 for 16.9

 

F&^k me....could I have missed out on more? Almost certainly! But damn, how can I pass this up in the short term?

 

options = increased risk/reward and emotions

 

Would you have taken profits?

 

I think you sold way too soon. I would held past 2020.

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Exited all but one GOOG $1500 Jan 2022 leaps I bought about a little over month ago at 5.5 for 16.9

 

F&^k me....could I have missed out on more? Almost certainly! But damn, how can I pass this up in the short term?

 

options = increased risk/reward and emotions

 

Would you have taken profits?

 

I think you sold way too soon. I would held past 2020.

 

Probably right, but from the other perspective I generated a lot of free cash flow for myself and there are plenty of other opportunities out there trading at bargain bin prices. In a covid free world there is no doubt I sold too early.

 

If (I know, I know) the market takes another leg down and GOOG hits 1100 again I would be kicking myself for not selling out earlier an having the cash flow to buy shares.

 

I feel good about it so I'm gonna go with that  ;D

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Exited all but one GOOG $1500 Jan 2022 leaps I bought about a little over month ago at 5.5 for 16.9

 

F&^k me....could I have missed out on more? Almost certainly! But damn, how can I pass this up in the short term?

 

options = increased risk/reward and emotions

 

Would you have taken profits?

 

I think you sold way too soon. I would held past 2020.

 

Probably right, but from the other perspective I generated a lot of free cash flow for myself and there are plenty of other opportunities out there trading at bargain bin prices. In a covid free world there is no doubt I sold too early.

 

If (I know, I know) the market takes another leg down and GOOG hits 1100 again I would be kicking myself for not selling out earlier an having the cash flow to buy shares.

 

I feel good about it so I'm gonna go with that  ;D

 

Totally understandable. I guess the other question I would ask is, was your initial plan to always sell once the stock hit $1500? I mainly ask due to the duration, as you have a run way of almost 20 months but only held for 1 month.

 

You're right that the market could have taken a leg down. Though my thinking would have been that sure, things going still go down and we may have another wave of corona, but I've still got a 20 month runaway in a tech company that is generally resilient. I have similar leaps in a variety of tech companies and its hard not to cash in those unrealized gains but I'm going to wait it out till next year, unless something material changes about the actual businesses.

 

Anyway enjoy the profits!

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