what are you selling today?

[Rainier]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Got a decent that out of that one. QLYS isn’t expensive and that sort of software (system of record, cybersecurity ) won’t be replaced that easily, I think I would go for something faster growing like ZS here. Cybersecurity is going to be a big issue with AI because it is much easier to create malicious agents to do all sorts of things with AI. 

I've got a basket of these cybersecurity companies that I think will be hard for AI to replace (or at least hard for audit/risk/cyber committees inside big companies to justify switching from). My basket is currently ZS, DT, FTNT and I added QLYS this week. I sold off a position in PANW a few weeks ago to buy something else. Turned out to be good timing, but I'll likely buy back into it this year.

 

ZS, DT, and PANW have been getting pounded like all other software stocks. FTNT has held up fairly well.

 

In my opinion,free cash flow is extremely strong in these companies and I don't see how that really erodes. If anything, AI tools will speed up the development of malicious software.

[thowed]

I haven't looked at these for a while, as felt were too expensive & I didn't know enough.  I can't beleive QLYS is flat over 5 years now!

 

Agree that these products won't go away - the only question would be - at some point will these become Utility-like companies, and if so, when (I imagine not for a while).

 

[Spekulatius]

We might benefit from adding a cybersecurity  thread. The company I work for is very concerned about cybersecurity (due in needing to be  ITAR complaints and being on China‘s black list ) and IT is clamping down on all sorts things like remote access. They also seems to make an effort to get rid of most if not all open source software after vulnerability were detected with some of them. I think cyber security become bigger deal as AI opens up entirely new attack vectors.

Edited February 8 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

Sold all of a small NVO position on Tuesday 3^rd February 2026 [to buy it back, as Novo Nordisk shares, listed in Copenhagen, [NOVO B.CPH shares].

 

[In a tax deferred account, to avoid US withholding taxes].

[Spekulatius]

Sold $MOH following  my rule to sell if unexpected events (in this case very negative earnings) happen). I might buy this stock back, but it’s my iron rule not to do thesis creep.

[Saluki]

21 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Sold $MOH following  my rule to sell if unexpected events (in this case very negative earnings) happen). I might buy this stock back, but it’s my iron rule not to do thesis creep.

 

This is a good rule to have and I struggle with it. Last week I sold out of Paypal (for a loss) on a midsize position. I knew the turnaround would take time, but when they fired the CEO, that wasn't on my BINGO card so I sold. 

 

One thing that has helped prevent thesis drift for me in the past is printing out a 1 page sheet from Value Line. I highlight the numbers I think are important and I write on the back in a few bullet points what I like about it, what I expect to happen and when. That's contemporaneous with my investment and does a lot to keep from talking myself into staying when the story changes. I think COBF can serve a similar function. 

 

The few times I have talked myself into thesis drift did not work out well. I remember specifically, several years back, with Smith and Wesson, I made a multibagger investment but lost about half of the gains because I didn't sell when the Pentagon announce that the $800mm pistol contract went to their competitor. I held on because of other things they had going on which looked positive, but it was a mistake. Luckilly, I learned my lesson and I recognized the thesis drift when I decided to sell Enphase (White House cancelling renewable credits), and it went from $100 to $25 recently. Yes, they still had positive things going on, but it was an unexpected thing that completely changed the thesis.  It's come back from the bottom tick, but tying up that cash and letting it dwindle for a year would be painful when everything else was going up. 

 

 

[dipod]

19 hours ago, Saluki said:

 

This is a good rule to have and I struggle with it. Last week I sold out of Paypal (for a loss) on a midsize position. I knew the turnaround would take time, but when they fired the CEO, that wasn't on my BINGO card so I sold. 

 

One thing that has helped prevent thesis drift for me in the past is printing out a 1 page sheet from Value Line. I highlight the numbers I think are important and I write on the back in a few bullet points what I like about it, what I expect to happen and when. That's contemporaneous with my investment and does a lot to keep from talking myself into staying when the story changes. I think COBF can serve a similar function. 

 

The few times I have talked myself into thesis drift did not work out well. I remember specifically, several years back, with Smith and Wesson, I made a multibagger investment but lost about half of the gains because I didn't sell when the Pentagon announce that the $800mm pistol contract went to their competitor. I held on because of other things they had going on which looked positive, but it was a mistake. Luckilly, I learned my lesson and I recognized the thesis drift when I decided to sell Enphase (White House cancelling renewable credits), and it went from $100 to $25 recently. Yes, they still had positive things going on, but it was an unexpected thing that completely changed the thesis.  It's come back from the bottom tick, but tying up that cash and letting it dwindle for a year would be painful when everything else was going up. 

 

 

Thank you. This is quite instructive. Made this mistake many times myself. Running through this same process in my brain with CPNG (have a large stake here). But from my analysis, the business moat is extremely strong and the current issues are temporary. For NVO, I expect them to do decently well given how beaten down the stock is but there's really no way I feel confident in their super long term future given how the GLP-1 story has changed over time (more competition, "grey market", LLYs products just doing much better on pretty much every metric except orfoglipron, Most Favored nation issues driving down their profits, etc). Makes a great swing trade candidate though.

[brobro777]

Oh man I wanna short Amazon so bad, short AMZN

 

too many funboys are flapping their gums about "Amzn lowest PE ever!!!" Like way too many funboys

 

will I get squeezed out for a loss like my short silver??? Hoo boy! 

[Saluki]

Trimmed a few shares of BRK (it's still my 2d biggest position) and a little KRKNF on the pop today. 

[Saluki]

I sold some Jan 27 call options that I bought on SWBI last year. I wasn't convinced enough to buy the common (i discussed it on the SWBI post), but I thought it would come back. About 20% gain, so it wasn't bad, but I bought too soon, and in hindsight should have bought a lot more when it bottomed out if I really believed in that thesis. Trying to learn from my mistakes, I've been buying a CPNG option here and there since it's a similar story (something that looks terrible in the short term, but probably won't matter in a year or two). 

[Spekulatius]

Reduced $RELY in my tax deferred accounts. One Fintech that actually worked , but I think I switch some proceeds into something else in that space.

[dealraker]

Selling BUD.  Bought on the freak-out and just kept buying on the way up.  Didn't find a single person to interact with on this one.

[gfp]

just piddling around the edges

 

[adventurer]

15 hours ago, gfp said:

just piddling around the edges

 

Are you a fund manager or do you manage your private funds? 

[gfp]

6 hours ago, adventurer said:

Are you a fund manager or do you manage your private funds? 

 

These trades are personal.  I don't manage a "fund" as in a pooled investment vehicle.  But I do manage the "funds" of a few other people/entities.  Mostly for free but a couple not.

[Saluki]

Kraken Robotics hit another all time high today, so I trimmed a little to take it back down to the portfolio weighting I want. 

[coffeecaninvestor]

Sold AJG and FND. Both still trade at premium multiples and just have a weird feeling about the market punishing these compounder’s further.  

[Spekulatius]

Sold remainder of HII. That one worked really well. It’s not a great business either.

[LC]

Sold about half of my position of 1662 - Japan Petroleum. 

[Libs]

SSD. Reluctantly. To buy SKYH.

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, Libs said:

SSD. Reluctantly. To buy SKYH.

 

I love SSD!  Now I feel bad about answering in the sky harbour thread 

Edited March 2 by gfp

[Libs]

25 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

I love SSD!  Now I feel bad about answering in the sky harbour thread 

LOL. I hope you don't own / love AMRZ, because it's (reluctantly!) next on the block.

[Saluki]

Sold my small VG common position but kept the LEAPs I have on it. I'm trying to move to positions that I don't have to monitor, but even if it's a company that I like, 20% up moves in one day are rare, so I might sell something and buy it back cheaper on a day like today. 

[Libs]

20 hours ago, Saluki said:

Sold my small VG common position but kept the LEAPs I have on it. I'm trying to move to positions that I don't have to monitor, but even if it's a company that I like, 20% up moves in one day are rare, so I might sell something and buy it back cheaper on a day like today. 

Trimmed 8% off of my beloved PSYTF, TRRVF, GLASF, and NNI. The gun is fully loaded for SKYH. 

[Eng12345]

21 hours ago, Saluki said:

Sold my small VG common position but kept the LEAPs I have on it. I'm trying to move to positions that I don't have to monitor, but even if it's a company that I like, 20% up moves in one day are rare, so I might sell something and buy it back cheaper on a day like today. 

I sold my vg position today. Looks like they had another arbitration win which pumped it another day 7%.

 

I want it to be a long term but with the vol I think I can snag it a fair bit cheaper.