what are you selling today?

[Hektor]

On 7/23/2025 at 6:43 PM, Spekulatius said:

Sold $BAH (profit)

@Spekulatius Curious, why sell so soon. From the release this morning, I feel they seem to be doing ok, given the environment.

[Spekulatius]

20 minutes ago, Hektor said:

@Spekulatius Curious, why sell so soon. From the release this morning, I feel they seem to be doing ok, given the environment.

Indeed. However i made ~15% without any risk due to earnings miss in a short period of time. Works OK for me.

[Hektor]

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Indeed. However i made ~15% without any risk due to earnings miss in a short period of time. Works OK for me.

[brobro777]

Sold all my S&P 500 futures

 

 

[WayWardCloud]

Sold my ~5% Amazon position last week at $230 after a nice 30% return in about 3 months. I still think it's a long term winner but it was my stock I liked the least and I wanted to free up a little cash for the next draw down. It seems to trade between EV/EBITDA ~12 and ~16 quite reliably for the past few years and I've been lucky to do this back and forth thrice already.

 

Below is my reasoning.

 

Being the number 1 e-commerce and cloud platform in the US is a beautiful position to be in. However it feels like retail is mature and that as the incumbent cloud is theirs to lose. I believe Microsoft in particular is showing their teeth and could take over AWS within the next 3 years. It is Day 2 which doesn't have to be a bad thing. They could reap what Bezos sowed and print money without innovating much. In fact margins are set to massively improve in '26 and '27 but I think they're in denial about being Day 2 which is dangerous in itself (more below) and that Jassy feels much more like Ballmer than like Cook.

 

The OG team is gone. When Bezos left, most of his lieutenants left as well. Jassy's letters are an uninspiring snooze fest. Their AI strategy is non existent (revive Alexa which no one wants). Their latest projects have been stupid : they should be deep in self driving cars for delivery (zoox is lost at sea), robotics AI for the warehouses (buying solutions from Nvidia), have included Amazon Music for free in Prime to increase stickiness (Spotify won), and most importantly be making the big push towards consumer healthcare they've been tiptoeing around for the last 10 years (please!). Instead they went physical groceries stores (why??), terrifying cashier-less panopticon supermarkets with thousands of cameras, face recognition and fingerprint readers (creeps out everyone except maybe the Chinese government), doubling down on completely useless Alexa (tens of billions invested to get : turn on the lights, play something, tell me a joke) and even opened a freaking hair salon (OK that was a tiny project but doesn't it say something?). For a company claiming to be the world's most client-centric they don't seem to have any idea what people want or who they are and what they're good at.

 

OK this was all very negative because it's a "why I sold" essay but for anyone who owns this I also stand by : Number 1 e-com and cloud platform in the best market + margins about to increase a lot = reaping what Bezos sowed for many more years. So I will happily be back in this if it dips around EV/EBITDA 12 again. Just wanted to derisk my tactical allocation a bit for the next volatility event and the other stuff I own is much more promising 

Edited July 28, 2025 by WayWardCloud

[brobro777]

Oh man it would be so cool if I could buy back my Dec 2025 ES contracts around 6000 this fall

 

That would be totally awesome

 

[sleepydragon]

Sold UBER, LVMUY, META, COIN, NVDA put

[Jan]

Sold IBKR

[villainx]

Is it because it went up a lot?

 

 

[Jan]

@villainx yes, I was worried about valuation, and I needed cash to buy into some other ideas. I keep the stock on my watchlist and could buy back in when valuation looks better again. 

[Saluki]

Yesterday I got assigned 500 shares of VG from $15 puts that I sold, and I sold 300 of them today for a small profit (plus the premium). Seems like a decent risk/reward at this price, but I don't want to trade on margin right now. 

 

Sold some SWBI ATM puts for 2027 for $1.60.  At that price, if I get exercised, it would be at what they were trading at in 2012. 

 

Sold a small position that I had in SFL for about 10% profit plus dividends. It's still cheap enough that it's paying a 10% dividend, but with a couple of offshore ships that are still waiting for contracts, I think it may get a dividend cut if they stay idle any longer. And it generally trades between $10-14 so it's a trading sardine that I can come back to. 

[Milu]

22 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

Sold UBER, LVMUY, META, COIN, NVDA put

Why so many? Do you generally buy and sell multiple positions each day, or just deciding to get out of everything for some reason?

[sleepydragon]

47 minutes ago, Milu said:

Why so many? Do you generally buy and sell multiple positions each day, or just deciding to get out of everything for some reason?

yeah, I bought a lot of high PE stocks last month, overstretched a bit on margin. so I can cleaning up a bit and sold some of the underperformers. 

[Spekulatius]

Reduced $VNT a bit.

[Paarslaars]

Sold a bit of Nintendo today... Hurts but 3350 got so cheap. Still over 10% position.

[thepupil]

On 3/3/2025 at 3:11 PM, thepupil said:

I sold 100% of my ELME, realizing a 36% return since 10/2023, slight underperformance to SPY (+42%).

 

....

 

I don't expect ELME to get more than $19-$20 in a sale so upside of 15% or so + divvies from here just didn't seem quite enough reward to own mediocre apartments where 10-20% of tenants are feds or contractors. 

 

 

 

 

not a bad sale. in line with projected liquidation amount. guess i should have re-bought when it fell after i sold, but can't win em all..

[Saluki]

Sold some frph, Tayd and oxy. The ancient curse will probably make me regret it, but market feels weird right now so I don't mind building up a little Cash. 

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, Saluki said:

Sold some frph, Tayd and oxy. The ancient curse will probably make me regret it, but market feels weird right now so I don't mind building up a little Cash. 

Dont think so. Reading the FRPH release today I cant help but think what a shame it is, the direction theyve chosen to go. 

[sleepydragon]

2 hours ago, Saluki said:

Sold some frph, Tayd and oxy. The ancient curse will probably make me regret it, but market feels weird right now so I don't mind building up a little Cash. 

I also sold all my remaining oxy commons and warrants 

[oscarazocar]

13 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Dont think so. Reading the FRPH release today I cant help but think what a shame it is, the direction theyve chosen to go. 

 

Exactly what direction have they chosen to go that you don't like?  Haven't dug in on this one in awhile.  Thanks.

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, oscarazocar said:

 

Exactly what direction have they chosen to go that you don't like?  Haven't dug in on this one in awhile.  Thanks.

They went from what I viewed as really savvy, nimble operator whom largely allocated capital were the best returns were, whom mainly did bolt on type projects that complemented the existing base, to now more or less what resembles a private REIT or secondary market fee generator platform thats just looking to grow the headline numbers and size of the asset base. 

[thepupil]

from my perspective, they're more or less doing what they've always done. 

 

they made a bad investment in Bryant Street. Otherwise they are long term / development oriented RE firm w/ a legacy position in a very cash generative and valueable aggregate royalty asset. 

 

after selling in low $30's and high $20's I think it's becoming compelling oncemore at around $25. 

 

as discussed ad nauseum, I think their NAV ranges are reasonable and you're approaching 70 cents on the lower end which seems like a nice entry. 

 

you also have the benefit of 2 more Q's of DOGE impact (or lack thereof). I still think it may come, but I think the worst of the downside nodes have been eliminated. 

Edited August 7, 2025 by thepupil

[Marco Van Basten]

23 minutes ago, thepupil said:

from my perspective, they're more or less doing what they've always done. 

 

they made a bad investment in Bryant Street. Otherwise they are long term / development oriented RE firm w/ a legacy position in a very cash generative and valueable aggregate royalty asset. 

 

after selling in low $30's and high $20's I think it's becoming compelling oncemore at around $25. 

 

as discussed ad nauseum, I think their NAV ranges are reasonable and you're approaching 70 cents on the lower end which seems like a nice entry. 

 

you also have the benefit of 2 more Q's of DOGE impact (or lack thereof). I still think it may come, but I think the worst of the downside nodes have been eliminated. 

I disagree.  It's not just Bryant Street.  They also sat on a pile of cash for seven years if I am not mistaken, with nothing to show for it.  The SG&A burn is quite a bit for the size of the business.  Also, there is no dividend or other return of capital to shareholders.  

[ourkid8]

sold CP (small tracker position) and used the proceeds to buy LULU.  

[thepupil]

41 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I disagree.  It's not just Bryant Street.  They also sat on a pile of cash for seven years if I am not mistaken, with nothing to show for it.  The SG&A burn is quite a bit for the size of the business.  Also, there is no dividend or other return of capital to shareholders.  

 

Ya this has been argued on this board a few times. Ultimately no one can agree on the facts, much less the interpretation, and that's what makes a market.

 

they've got $162 million at share of off balance sheet debt and $31 million of OZ tax debt due in the near term. That's $191 million of debt that doesn't show up as consolidated on sheet mortgages. I don't think they have that much excess cash. 

 

subtract $31mm for the OZ, 

maybe another  $30mm to bail out Bryant Street again. 

 

they have plenty of investments in the hopper with equity financing commitment. i think they deployed a fair bit of capital over last seven years, and harvested a fair bit, but that it's been 100% the right move to keep a warchest (and consistent with their ethos for a long time). 

 

i think they have a ton to show for it...the income producing estate is more developed than ever. 

 

the first red line is gross PP&E, you can see it frop from $300mm--low $200's then rise to $485mm. you an see their investement in JV's increase from $24mm to $153mm. 

 

they grew the asset base and redeployed the cash without issuing a share, by investing /recycling / and putting on (for the most part) great debt. which is why NOI keeps growing.

 

they also destroyed several tens of millions of value at Bryant Street. from my perspective, you put that in the numbers and move on...mistakes happen. cap rates blow out. you stretch your underwriting a little for the OZ bennies.. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 7, 2025 by thepupil