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Posted

Potash Corp.  - POT - Its funny.  On this board or its predecessor in 2007/08 Potash was at an all time high and I got into it with a couple of board members who were claiming it was good value.  Now it's good value. 

 

Recent Hr.un : Biggest Cdn. REIT - been hammered for some reason

 

nvu.un : Cdn REIT - multiresidential mostly in small towns that aren't Fort Mcmurray

 

All recent positions - we are in the getting to know you phase - so small.

Posted

I guess POT will cut div?

 

Potash Corp.  - POT - Its funny.  On this board or its predecessor in 2007/08 Potash was at an all time high and I got into it with a couple of board members who were claiming it was good value.  Now it's good value. 

 

Recent Hr.un : Biggest Cdn. REIT - been hammered for some reason

 

nvu.un : Cdn REIT - multiresidential mostly in small towns that aren't Fort Mcmurray

 

All recent positions - we are in the getting to know you phase - so small.

Posted

TBE.DB

 

Another debenture not for the faith of heart either! No kidding!

 

Actually just found this:

 

http://boereport.com/tag/twin-butte-energy/

 

If you scroll down to the bottom of that report, it appears that the entire operation is for sale based on the acreage amount: both heavy and medium oil.

 

The medium oil production at Provost or just over half the company should sell for a good price. The other half at Lloydminster which is heavy will sell for less. However, keep in mind that with the advent of horizontal drilling, heavy oil in that area has turned economic even at low oil prices: cost per well is low, little sand in the oil and lower royalties on horizontal drilling vs conventional.

 

For the heavy oil portion it is the same story as for Gear Energy wells. They also have $700+ millions of tax loss carryforwards which must have some value.

 

Cardboard

Posted

I guess POT will cut div?

 

Potash Corp.  - POT - Its funny.  On this board or its predecessor in 2007/08 Potash was at an all time high and I got into it with a couple of board members who were claiming it was good value.  Now it's good value. 

 

Recent Hr.un : Biggest Cdn. REIT - been hammered for some reason

 

nvu.un : Cdn REIT - multiresidential mostly in small towns that aren't Fort Mcmurray

 

All recent positions - we are in the getting to know you phase - so small.

 

I bailed on Pot the next day, after doing something of a risk assessment that I should have done first.  Kept the Reits though. 

 

There will be a time to buy Pot, but not likely for a couple of years.  If I have learned anything from commodities its that they take longer to adjust than I think. 

Posted

Sold all of my SBLK and IBM this week.

 

SBLK is because with China slowing down and the Fed hiking rates, I'm concerned to be involved with leveraged entities in an oversupplied, unprofitable industry when demand may start collapsing.

 

IBM was sold to reduce leverage in the portfolio so I could use the margin to increase my short to the SPY.

 

I just have a hard time of making sense of anything bullish about raising rates as profits fall. And it's not just that profits are falling, margins have begun to contract too. If the $ continues to rise and we actually see wage pressures that everyone was talking about this year, then it will only get worse. Removing liquidity from a system on elevated multiples with declining profits/margins seems like it's a disaster scenario. God forbid you get deflationary CPI prints on top of it.

 

Bearishness aside - I sold some bond funds in my passive low P/B portfolio that were there for liquidity purposes. Proceeds were dumped into various energy and commodity companies now that prices have cratered again.

 

Purchased Jan 2017 SPY puts @ 170 for $6.84.

 

Now straight short about 7% of my portfolio and synthetically short with puts another 17% for ~25% total notional exposure. Fairfax is also about an 8-9% position for me to and I include that with my "bearish" bets even though it's much more than that and could decline in a market sell-off.

 

Sold the JAN 2017 SPY puts @ 170 for $9.45 - about a 38% profit.

 

Purchased JAN 2017 SPY puts @ 140 for $3.75. (~2x the number of contracts as the initial trade)

 

I understand most of you don't think a 50+ percent decline is likely, but that's is what I'm buying protection. It doesn't bother me that prices have to fall so far for the puts to be in the money. Recognizing my inability to predict Fed and market moves, I booked some profits to remove cash on the table while still increasing my ability to profit from a large decline - profits will actually be greater from this trade if the S&P goes below ~1100.

Posted

Bought some Under Armor yesterday on the selloff at $70.00

Will be held briefly for the slight rebound and will continue to hold cash on the sidelines while I occasionally pickup more shares of BAC and CMG.

 

Funny; I actually put on shorts on UA and CMG recently.

 

8)

Posted

Bought some Under Armor yesterday on the selloff at $70.00

Will be held briefly for the slight rebound and will continue to hold cash on the sidelines while I occasionally pickup more shares of BAC and CMG.

 

Funny; I actually put on shorts on UA and CMG recently.

 

8)

 

Nice pop for UA today. Are you going to hold or sell?

 

 

 

Posted

Bought some Under Armor yesterday on the selloff at $70.00

Will be held briefly for the slight rebound and will continue to hold cash on the sidelines while I occasionally pickup more shares of BAC and CMG.

 

Funny; I actually put on shorts on UA and CMG recently.

 

8)

 

Nice pop for UA today. Are you going to hold or sell?

 

Sell UA tomorrow morning at open. Amazon looks tempting now with it's nice drop. Will likely purchase more BAC.

Guest Grey512
Posted

Bought some Under Armor yesterday on the selloff at $70.00

Will be held briefly for the slight rebound and will continue to hold cash on the sidelines while I occasionally pickup more shares of BAC and CMG.

 

Funny; I actually put on shorts on UA and CMG recently.

 

8)

 

Both shorts are going against me so far, but I sized it at 0.5% of the portfolio (it is after all Kevin Plank!) so now it's just 0.6% of the portfolio.. I'm leaving the short on.

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