randomep Posted December 4, 2015 Posted December 4, 2015 David's Tea (DTEA). Built up a ~10% position in it. Think it's a potential triple over 2-3 years. May start a thread on it in investment ideas if people are interested. Do it! I think this forum lacks more breadth in investment ideas..... thanks
intothebreach Posted December 4, 2015 Posted December 4, 2015 Bought into KMI following the blood bath, and increased positions into common and some preferred of Fannie and Freddie.
PatientCheetah Posted December 5, 2015 Posted December 5, 2015 Bought into KMI following the blood bath, and increased positions into common and some preferred of Fannie and Freddie. I bought some in the mid 20's, got stopped out very quickly with a $2 loss, high leverage scares me, good luck!
gary17 Posted December 7, 2015 Posted December 7, 2015 hi Lance what's your thesis on Lancashire ? why did it have a large 25% correction over last few days , aside from the nice dividend it just sent out ? am i reading correctly it paid about 1 pound of dividends in 2015 alone ?
TwoCitiesCapital Posted December 7, 2015 Posted December 7, 2015 hi Lance what's your thesis on Lancashire ? why did it have a large 25% correction over last few days , aside from the nice dividend it just sent out ? am i reading correctly it paid about 1 pound of dividends in 2015 alone ? 5 seconds on google provided the below: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-07/lancashire-slumps-on-report-cathedral-capital-ceo-cfo-dismissed
LowIQinvestor Posted December 7, 2015 Author Posted December 7, 2015 ODP- OFFICE DEPOT (45% Merger Arb Spread) FTC ruling by tomorrow----ODP price implies no chance of merger with Staples. Staples willing to divest assets to make deal happen. Downside of 10-15% if deal blocked...upside of 45%. Essendant Inc and Office Depot a likely merger pairing if Staples fails.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted December 7, 2015 Posted December 7, 2015 Sold VALE 11/20/15 PUTS @ 4 for $0.25 Doubled my SPY short today. Also sold FCAU 11/20/15 PUTS @12 for $0.60. Sold BBRY 11/20/15 PUTS @ $7 for $0.67. sold WFM 11/20/15 CALLS @ 35 for $0.45 Sold ACI 11/20/15 PUTS @ 2 for $0.30 Last set of puts worked out pretty well. Sold 10/16 puts @ 4 for $1.00 when it was at $6+. Incredible that the stock can fall 50% and you still make 25% in a month by selling puts. Bankruptcy is a real risk here but selling puts is more attractive to outright equity exposure which is what my passive P/B strategy would have me doing. I think the puts are a better option for exposure at this point until the bankruptcy/debt swap issues are worked out and then I'll probably roll the exposure into equity. Sold more FCAU options. 12/18/2015 PUTS @ 15 for $0.85. Also sold CHK 12/18/2015 PUTS @ 5 for $0.21 Purchased more ATUSF on Friday at $7.80. Purchased more FNMAJ today at $3.30.
Lance Posted December 8, 2015 Posted December 8, 2015 hi Lance what's your thesis on Lancashire ? why did it have a large 25% correction over last few days , aside from the nice dividend it just sent out ? am i reading correctly it paid about 1 pound of dividends in 2015 alone ? Hi Gary - other than the dividend I think the correction was due largely to the news out of Cathedral regarding the CEO/CFO dismissal. Initially I thought perhaps a potential acquisition was called off, but have not seen anything - i.e. the upward move seemed to be partly due to thoughts that Lancashire was going to be acquired. Thanks, Lance
scorpioncapital Posted December 8, 2015 Posted December 8, 2015 I'm buying some IILG. It looks cheap with maybe a 16 to 17% initial yield on purchase price and approaching a 3.5% dividend rate, after effect of the merger. Insiders have been buying too.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 Bought more HERO today This is a tiny fraction of a position for me in my passive P/B account. This decision wasn't entirely "passive", but if I were to rebalance the account today then it would be an equal weight position so I figured I could reinvest some portfolio dividends to begin rebuidling the position a little early. 3% of post-bankruptcy re-org book value just seems a little ridiculous even if the industry is in shambles and there is no clear road to recovery.
LowIQinvestor Posted December 9, 2015 Author Posted December 9, 2015 BEN & FRFHF BEN is buying back a ton of shares, large inside ownership (family), potential special dividend on the way, trading at 8 PE
SmallCap Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 Sold all my shares of PWE (still held options) back in Nov for 1.25 Yesterday I bought the same number of shares back for .81 Why the same number of shares, good question for which I have no reasonable answer. I have often wondered how our past purchase price anchors our future thinking and biases our appraisal of the present value. I make too many decisions based not on the present situation but based on what the present situations is relevant to my purchase transaction.
Lance Posted December 11, 2015 Posted December 11, 2015 FFXDF (Fairfax India Holdings Corporation) Thanks, Lance
sculpin Posted December 16, 2015 Posted December 16, 2015 Maxim Power (MXG -TSX) $2.85 Canadian Maxim Power (MXG – TSX) currently $2.85/share is one that we have been holding onto for several years waiting for the value in its various assets to be realized. Following discussions with management and other holders it appears that value realization should begin to take place in 2016. Catalysts Upcoming Sale of Comax – our 100% owned independent utility in France is expected by early Q1. Settlement of FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) lawsuit should be close. This is what led to the cancellation of the previous sale of Maxim’s US assets (MUSA). Expected settlement is small compared to the value of this asset. Once this is resolved Maxim US can be sold. Settlement of Alberta Line Loss lawsuit should bring in substantial cash (see below in NAV) by Q2 2016. Once MUSA & Comax are sold Maxim will hold significant cash and its Alberta assets which can then be sold. Valuation To properly value Maxim, it is necessary to do a SOTP valuation. Currently the Company has 54MM shares out for a market cap of $150 million. Debt only resides in its French & US subsidiaries and will be extinguished upon their divestiture. Book value is currently $5.09 or close to double the current share price. Management has consistently stated that investors will see at least book value upon sale of the Company. Comax assets – Potentially $45MM after debt repayment. Line Loss Settlement – gross loss to be repaid to Maxim is $35MM - 40MM – with penalties, interest and legal fees going back 10 years the final amount Maxim may recoup is up to $70MM. Maxim USA – the value of this asset has appreciated strongly with EBITDA expected to hit over $40MM in 2018 as electricity capacity payments triple and NE US coal & other power plants are retired. Management now believes the value of this asset is close to $200MM after debt ($3.70 per share alone). This is confirmed by a recent analysis by Industrial Alliance: “Recent gas asset transactions indicate substantial potential value for MXG’s US fleet relative to the current stock price. In Q3 we witnessed a trio of transactions for merchant natural gas-fired capacity in the US Northeast, with implied multiples in the 7-10x EV/EBITDA range. Although no two assets (or two transactions) are directly identical, if we apply the multiples from the recent transactions to MXG’s US fleet, we arrive at a valuation range of US$140-200M (US$115-175M, net of ~US$25M in associated debt). After currency conversion, the valuation range implies $2.75-4.20/share (compared with MXG’s $2.58 share price). In other words, MXG is trading below the market value of its US assets alone (assuming nothing for France or Alberta). ” Totaling the expected proceeds from above nets approximately $280 to $315MM in cash to the Canadian holding company which has substantial tax loss carry forwards in place. Per share this amounts to $5.15 to $5.80 per share prior to the value of the Canadian power and development assets. The Canadian assets include: Summit Metallurgical coal with 18.9 million tons of high quality met coal with a book value of $25MM Emission credits recently sold for cash of $5MM with an additional $15MM at the same pricing Milner coal/NG generating plant with approval for a new 520MW NG fired plant in the same location with all electrical connections, water license, fuel delivery infrastructure and ops team. Milner can currently run as a peaker plant on either coal or NG until 2019 generating up to $20MM Ebitda/annum Construction ready 190 MW NG fired peaking station approved in Bruderheim Alberta Approved 200 MW wind generation project in SW Alberta waiting on improved Alberta pricing and NDP driven wind power purchase agreements to allow for economic operation. Maxim should hold in excess of $5 per share in cash along with the above listed Alberta assets at some point in the next year. The entire Company could then be sold (hopefully into an improving Alberta power market) by sometime in 2017 at the cash level plus the value resident in the Alberta assets. This value could be substantial given the Alberta NDP & federal governments’ desire to see faster retirement of coal gen capacity (50% of current Alberta generation) and replacement with cleaner NG and wind generation.
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