Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted

Well, Icahn was somewhat right about ETFs.

Totally right, as he usually is.  VIG is like megacap AAA companies, not junk (even UST) bonds, can't wait to see what happens to those under similar duress.

Posted

Should have implemented this:

 

The late Sir John Templeton had a great strategy for managing volatility and taking his emotions out of the equation. He would make a list of stocks that he would love to own if only they sold for a substantially cheaper price. He would then place limit orders to buy them at those prices. If a wave of panic swept the market, Sir John would not be paralyzed by indecision because the decision had already been made for him.

 

Looks like this would be a good strategy for some ETFs too?

Posted

Should have implemented this:

 

The late Sir John Templeton had a great strategy for managing volatility and taking his emotions out of the equation. He would make a list of stocks that he would love to own if only they sold for a substantially cheaper price. He would then place limit orders to buy them at those prices. If a wave of panic swept the market, Sir John would not be paralyzed by indecision because the decision had already been made for him.

 

Looks like this would be a good strategy for some ETFs too?

 

Harder to do with ETFs IMO since you are looking at discount to NAV vs a set price. An ETF could really represent or track anything. Some of them employ leverage, some of them use futures. 

 

I saw that VIG was down 18% and the market was down 6% and based on the top holdings of VIG it seemed it should be highly correlated and was out of whack so I rolled the dice. But hard to have a set price at which I would buy VIG because I would need to know the value of the underlying.

 

Posted

Should have implemented this:

 

The late Sir John Templeton had a great strategy for managing volatility and taking his emotions out of the equation. He would make a list of stocks that he would love to own if only they sold for a substantially cheaper price. He would then place limit orders to buy them at those prices. If a wave of panic swept the market, Sir John would not be paralyzed by indecision because the decision had already been made for him.

 

Looks like this would be a good strategy for some ETFs too?

 

Might work. Some markets (and brokers?) don't allow limit orders >10% (20%? - can't find reference) below market price.

Posted

Should have implemented this:

 

The late Sir John Templeton had a great strategy for managing volatility and taking his emotions out of the equation. He would make a list of stocks that he would love to own if only they sold for a substantially cheaper price. He would then place limit orders to buy them at those prices. If a wave of panic swept the market, Sir John would not be paralyzed by indecision because the decision had already been made for him.

 

Looks like this would be a good strategy for some ETFs too?

 

Might work. Some markets (and brokers?) don't allow limit orders >10% (20%? - can't find reference) below market price.

 

When the flash crash happened, I had some limit orders on PG (which crashed a lot that day), but my orders did not execute since it fell > 20% [ not sure if it's broker specific- I use wellsfargo].

 

Posted

Really? After a market that has gone straight up for so many years, we get a relatively small decline like this and everyone is excited about getting a deal!

 

Depends on a stock. Some stocks are down 20+% this year. BRK is down >15%. Oil stocks are down... censored.

 

Nobody thinks it will go lower?

 

Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Are you an oracle?

Posted

Really? After a market that has gone straight up for so many years, we get a relatively small decline like this and everyone is excited about getting a deal!

 

Nobody thinks it will go lower?

 

I'm fairly ambivalent.  Might go higher or lower.  I don't feel particularly gutsy at the moment.  Pass.

Posted

Really? After a market that has gone straight up for so many years, we get a relatively small decline like this and everyone is excited about getting a deal!

 

Nobody thinks it will go lower?

 

Nobody knows of course if things will go lower or even much lower, the only thing is if you are paying a reasonable price for what you are buying today. Things are flopping all around today but currently the S&P 500 at 1882 is trading at roughly 16X 2015 earnings (according to Cap IQ) which in the interest rate environment we're in seems reasonable. Apple at $99 this morning I think was trading at 6.4X TEV/LTM FCF. That seems more than reasonable even given the risks there.

Posted

Really? After a market that has gone straight up for so many years, we get a relatively small decline like this and everyone is excited about getting a deal!

 

Nobody thinks it will go lower?

 

I think there's a chance (but who knows?). Decreased my liquidity by <15%. Still sitting on some cash to deploy. Actually thinking about harvesting some liquidity from a name that has a reasonable valuation, MKL.

 

Bought: TV and LILA. These have been a little crushed from the highs.

Posted

I do. I added FFH.

Really? After a market that has gone straight up for so many years, we get a relatively small decline like this and everyone is excited about getting a deal!

 

Nobody thinks it will go lower?

Posted

Really? After a market that has gone straight up for so many years, we get a relatively small decline like this and everyone is excited about getting a deal!

 

Nobody thinks it will go lower?

 

The hope is it goes down more....

but the fear is like all these years, the relatively puny deals we might have now also might not last long or go deep enough...

the 52 week lows set today will be staring at us for a long time even though it was virtually impossible to take advantage of those lows this morning.

 

I hope china doesn't do anything again tonight...another 10-20% or so of decline there and names like BABA,BIDU etc are in deal territory.

Posted

Really? After a market that has gone straight up for so many years, we get a relatively small decline like this and everyone is excited about getting a deal!

 

Nobody thinks it will go lower?

 

The hope is it goes down more....

but the fear is like all these years, the relatively puny deals we might have now also might not last long or go deep enough...

the 52 week lows set today will be staring at us for a long time even though it was virtually impossible to take advantage of those lows this morning.

 

I hope china doesn't do anything again tonight...another 10-20% or so of decline there and names like BABA,BIDU etc are in deal territory.

 

 

well the market is nearly back to this morning's levels at the moment, and could obviously continue to go lower - especially with the enormous amount of machine-based trading out there.

Guest Schwab711
Posted

Burn, Baby! Burn!

 

I found nothing to buy today (though I was reading while firesales were going on). We really should drop a lot more to get to fairer values overall. One idiot's opinion.

Posted

Really? After a market that has gone straight up for so many years, we get a relatively small decline like this and everyone is excited about getting a deal!

 

Nobody thinks it will go lower?

I don't know whether it'll go lower or not. My guess is that it will. Still some stuff became decently priced so I picked up some. while still keeping a lot of dry powder.

 

I think one way for one to gauge whether they know or not what the market will do is how the felt today around lunch if they weren't quick on the trigger this morning.

Posted

Really? After a market that has gone straight up for so many years, we get a relatively small decline like this and everyone is excited about getting a deal!

 

Nobody thinks it will go lower?

 

I'm fairly ambivalent.  Might go higher or lower.  I don't feel particularly gutsy at the moment.  Pass.

 

Same for me. That's my point. I'm just trying to ensure we keep balanced here.

Posted

Really? After a market that has gone straight up for so many years, we get a relatively small decline like this and everyone is excited about getting a deal!

 

Depends on a stock. Some stocks are down 20+% this year. BRK is down >15%. Oil stocks are down... censored.

 

Nobody thinks it will go lower?

 

Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Are you an oracle?

 

Jurgis, Jurgis, Jurgis. Now did I say I was an oracle? No I didn't Jurgis.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...