What are you buying today?

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

ROE/ROIC + yuge revenue growth = profit 5-10 years from now?

 

Both are global software and advertising businesses.

 

ASOS 10-year median ROE (20%), ROIC (20%), and revenue growth (31%), P/E ~20 seems "OK", price seems low if if we extrapolate from past numbers:

https://quickfs.net/company/ASC:LN

 

NTM EV/EBIT multiple ~16 near a ten year low.

 

BOO growing faster and is more expensive: https://quickfs.net/company/BOO:LN

 

Nick Sleep.

 

Problems: ESG, inflation and labor costs, competition, management (BOO).

 

 

This may be an incredible stupid question but after looking a bit in this space (and particularly Boo. L) what is the ESG concern here?

[formthirteen]

12 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

This may be an incredible stupid question but after looking a bit in this space (and particularly Boo. L) what is the ESG concern here?

 

Ultra-fast fashion is not environmentally friendly. Automation and minimizing labor costs is not socially responsible (according to socialists). BooHoo might have some governance issues according to Shadowfall's short report: https://t.co/Ejhc1DbCv9?amp=1

 

[ERICOPOLY]

BABA calls.

[BG2008]

2 hours ago, ERICOPOLY said:

BABA calls.

What duration? How much of a position size?  

[ERICOPOLY]

2 minutes ago, BG2008 said:

What duration? How much of a position size?  

 

5% position.  June 2022.

[BG2008]

7 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said:

 

5% position.  June 2022.

Thanks Eric!  Is that 5% of capital at risk?  Also what strike? I really appreciate you sharing the details. 

[ERICOPOLY]

19 minutes ago, BG2008 said:

Thanks Eric!  Is that 5% of capital at risk?  Also what strike? I really appreciate you sharing the details. 

 

Yes.  Potential for 5% of capital vaporized.  

 

Strikes are $70, $110. $140.

 

 

 

Edited October 6, 2021 by ERICOPOLY
deleted $115 due to misremembering

[LC]

Eric, I assume given the deep ITM/ATM options, you would like to hold BABA for the long term? Otherwise, why not buy further OTM calls for more leverage?

[Gregmal]

LOL Meanwhile, a good percentage of folks are scared to go 5% on a single, non controversial STOCK! Not to mention the numerous financial literature and textbooks that tell you 5% is too risky. Just shows how the system is designed to keep people poor and reliant on financial services. 

[ERICOPOLY]

9 minutes ago, LC said:

Eric, I assume given the deep ITM/ATM options, you would like to hold BABA for the long term? Otherwise, why not buy further OTM calls for more leverage?

 

I might do that yet.  This is my first purchase of a Chinese stock ever.

[fareastwarriors]

Picked up some INDT sub 64.

[Monsieur_dee]

16 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

ROE/ROIC + yuge revenue growth = profit 5-10 years from now?

 

Both are global software and advertising businesses.

 

ASOS 10-year median ROE (20%), ROIC (20%), and revenue growth (31%), P/E ~20 seems "OK", price seems low if if we extrapolate from past numbers:

https://quickfs.net/company/ASC:LN

 

NTM EV/EBIT multiple ~16 near a ten year low.

 

BOO growing faster and is more expensive: https://quickfs.net/company/BOO:LN

 

Nick Sleep.

 

Problems: ESG, inflation and labor costs, competition, management (BOO).

 

 

Take a look at revolve if you like the industry.

 

 

Also more wix

[ERICOPOLY]

7 hours ago, Gregmal said:

LOL Meanwhile, a good percentage of folks are scared to go 5% on a single, non controversial STOCK! Not to mention the numerous financial literature and textbooks that tell you 5% is too risky. Just shows how the system is designed to keep people poor and reliant on financial services. 

 

Anyways, it isn't risky because I'm ticking the bottom on an Alibaba lifetime PE basis.  This is the first time it has gone to 17x.  This is the only year out of the past 5 where the stock hasn't traded up to a 40x PE for at least a small while.  LOL.  

[Gregmal]

11 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said:

 

Anyways, it isn't risky because I'm ticking the bottom on an Alibaba lifetime PE basis.  This is the first time it has gone to 17x.  This is the only year out of the past 5 where the stock hasn't traded up to a 40x PE for at least a small while.  LOL.  

Yea but it’s 5% and it’s call options, bruh! 
 

I’m with you though(just not on BABA, I don’t have a high level opinion there). A lot of times options are a better risk management strategy than stock. And 5% is not a big deal. 

[ERICOPOLY]

1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

Yea but it’s 5% and it’s call options, bruh! 
 

I’m with you though(just not on BABA, I don’t have a high level opinion there). A lot of times options are a better risk management strategy than stock. And 5% is not a big deal. 

 

Yes but in a sense it's risk-free because in a parallel universe where leverage doesn't exist neither does a parallel version of me in possession of said 5%.

[Gregmal]

14 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said:

 

Yes but in a sense it's risk-free because in a parallel universe where leverage doesn't exist neither does a parallel version of me in possession of said 5%.

In my universe where you already have what you need to live life on your own terms everything else is just having fun!

[Mephistopheles]

@ERICOPOLYclutch move. I also happened to buy BABA options yesterday $300 strike Jan 2023

[maplevalue]

NTDOY (adding some comments in the thread)

[ERICOPOLY]

29 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

@ERICOPOLYclutch move. I also happened to buy BABA options yesterday $300 strike Jan 2023

 

Yes, for what I bought yesterday.  

 

However.... when I sell common stock to raise cash, my Roth IRA rules at IB won't allow me to trade until the following day.  So I HAD to wait until this morning to purchase the rest of the call options. 

[Gregmal]

flipped some JBGS into AIV leaps

[formthirteen]

Boohoo, I bought more $BOO.L and $ASC.L.

Edited October 8, 2021 by formthirteen

[formthirteen]

On 10/8/2021 at 1:29 PM, formthirteen said:

Boohoo, I bought more $BOO.L and $ASC.L.

 

I'm crying even more today. $ASC.L down -14.53%. Bought a bit more shares.

Edited October 11, 2021 by formthirteen

[Gregmal]

Added a little bit to the crude oil futures call options and XLE calls. Credit to Kuppy again on the futures calls.....clearly the best way to play a big spike without the company specific risk. Another shoutout to the genius president and his fans for making it all happen. No better way to redistribute the wealth the high energy prices. $100 oil here we come!

[JRM]

5 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Added a little bit to the crude oil futures call options and XLE calls. Credit to Kuppy again on the futures calls.....clearly the best way to play a big spike without the company specific risk. Another shoutout to the genius president and his fans for making it all happen. No better way to redistribute the wealth the high energy prices. $100 oil here we come!

 

Don't assume malice for that which can be explained by ignorance.

 

What is the expiration on the calls\futures?  If *feels* like we're due for an in-flight correction vs a straight line to $100.

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, JRM said:

 

Don't assume malice for that which can be explained by ignorance.

 

What is the expiration on the calls\futures?  If *feels* like we're due for an in-flight correction vs a straight line to $100.

Theyre somewhat illiquid so I dont wanna give an exact date and strike, yet, cuz the trade is still in progress. But go out a few years and up 20-50%. So figure $100-125 strike on the CL. Pick your date accordingly but it doesnt really matter if you give yourself some time. You dont need a bee line. As we saw with the last correction, it just washes out the wimps and then resumes whats inevitable. We dont have the infrastructure for all these alt energy dreams and theyre killing what we do have. Its a basic supply and demand trade and globally theres places even worse than we are here. Wait til places like India start their "covid recovery"....demand....up. Joe will be gasping for a ventilator due to the sheer horror of what he's created. And we'll just laugh and count our dollars and smile while filling our cars with $6 gas.