rainman Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Most likely MONT is a fraud. But with PDSTI acquisition, shorting it may be too dangerous ? PDSTI could acquire it and IPO in Chinese stock market. MONT Jan 2015 20 - 15 put spreads at 55 cents Tilson Right, Chinese company is a fraud buyout not real: 8 Profit Tilson Wrong, Chinese company is a fraud but buyout real: -1 Loss http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MONT?s=mont Why I Just Made Montage Technology Group My Largest Short Position Whitney Tilson • Today, 12:30 PM • 2 Comments China Orders Montage Technology To Cease Production And Sale Aristides Capital • Today, 8:13 AM • 25 Comments Montage's stated set top box revenue is not consistent with its reputation as a very minor player; other brands dominate Montage by 10:1 to 35:1 among suppliers and finished goods. Montage produces the majority of chips in a 5 million chip per month black market; China's government recently ordered them to "stop illegal production and sales activities immediately". Excluding illegal chips, Montage trades at roughly 10x revenue. Neither PDSTI nor anyone else is likely to buy MONT at this price. Any of numerous catalysts could drop MONT precipitously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aberhound Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 SC on speculation that the lower earnings are due to the conservative reserving while the credit portfolio is improving due to the Chrysler deal. I think the new Chrysler/Fiat vehicles are great so they are likely to grow market share. This means at least 9 more years of good growth. I agree with SD that the company is in a position from its scale and expertise from Santander to bleed the competitors such as Ally white. We are mid cycle and I expect more jobs as manufacturing moves back to US primarily due to cheap energy and faster innovation adoption. Good interest margins like this are likely to become scarce. People love their cars keeping margins fat. Finally car sharing technologies will help the poor increase the utilization of cars so they are better able to afford the payments. Can't make your payment? Sign up with Uber as a driver and work during peak hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Most likely MONT is a fraud. But with PDSTI acquisition, shorting it may be too dangerous ? PDSTI could acquire it and IPO in Chinese stock market. MONT Jan 2015 20 - 15 put spreads at 55 cents Tilson Right, Chinese company is a fraud buyout not real: 8 Profit Tilson Wrong, Chinese company is a fraud but buyout real: -1 Loss http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MONT?s=mont Why I Just Made Montage Technology Group My Largest Short Position Whitney Tilson • Today, 12:30 PM • 2 Comments China Orders Montage Technology To Cease Production And Sale Aristides Capital • Today, 8:13 AM • 25 Comments Montage's stated set top box revenue is not consistent with its reputation as a very minor player; other brands dominate Montage by 10:1 to 35:1 among suppliers and finished goods. Montage produces the majority of chips in a 5 million chip per month black market; China's government recently ordered them to "stop illegal production and sales activities immediately". Excluding illegal chips, Montage trades at roughly 10x revenue. Neither PDSTI nor anyone else is likely to buy MONT at this price. Any of numerous catalysts could drop MONT precipitously. Yep that's why I bought put spreads that pay you $5 if it's fraud for the premium of 55 cents. I also would t short this for fear of halt risk and borrow risk. Some guys who successfully identified frauds got destroyed by borrow when share were halted for months. Anyways, the base case is obviously thT the deal goes through and I lose my money, but when you see a company that has delayed SEC filings announce a buyout 20 minutes after a seeking alpha article cries fraud and the acquirer is some state owned thing, I think it's a decent bet to taken given the odds the options market is giving you. Obviously to be done in small size. I know people have mixed feelings about tilson, but I think I agree with him that betting against this thing is a good risk reward , and the put spreads make it more appealing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 this is a 50c dollar - and the value can be realized immediately: https://www.groupon.com/deals/starbucks-2-2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Interesting gary.. it doesn't exactly scale though, does it? :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Interesting gary.. it doesn't exactly scale though, does it? :) Also it is not liquid, I don't think there is a secondary market for it :)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Interesting gary.. it doesn't exactly scale though, does it? :) Also it is not liquid, I don't think there is a secondary market for it :)) Actually....there is. ;) http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_odkw=starbucks+gif&_osacat=0&_from=R40&_trksid=p2045573.m570.l1311.R1.TR12.TRC2.A0.H0&_nkw=starbucks+gift+card&_sacat=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Interesting gary.. it doesn't exactly scale though, does it? :) Also it is not liquid, I don't think there is a secondary market for it :)) Actually....there is. ;) http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_odkw=starbucks+gif&_osacat=0&_from=R40&_trksid=p2045573.m570.l1311.R1.TR12.TRC2.A0.H0&_nkw=starbucks+gift+card&_sacat=0 Limit 1 per person. Can't scale :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Create a few more accounts and use different names! There's money to be made here, you just gotta do the work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 Gift cards going for curious prices: http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=231251221870 And seller is charging $2.32 for email delivery... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 Gift cards going for curious prices: http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=231251221870 And seller is charging $2.32 for email delivery... buying using stolen credit cards? I was curious why there were so many gift cards on sale at 80-90 face value. Then I learned hackers were laundering stolen gift cards using these gift cards reselling sites. The discount is warranted because any stolen cards have some possibility of being cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 Gift cards going for curious prices: http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=231251221870 And seller is charging $2.32 for email delivery... buying using stolen credit cards? I was curious why there were so many gift cards on sale at 80-90 face value. Then I learned hackers were laundering stolen gift cards using these gift cards reselling sites. The discount is warranted because any stolen cards have some possibility of being cancelled. That makes it clear why cards should sell at a discount, but the one I linked was selling at a premium. The face value was $50. It sold for $162.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 Most likely MONT is a fraud. But with PDSTI acquisition, shorting it may be too dangerous ? PDSTI could acquire it and IPO in Chinese stock market. MONT Jan 2015 20 - 15 put spreads at 55 cents Tilson Right, Chinese company is a fraud buyout not real: 8 Profit Tilson Wrong, Chinese company is a fraud but buyout real: -1 Loss http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MONT?s=mont Why I Just Made Montage Technology Group My Largest Short Position Whitney Tilson • Today, 12:30 PM • 2 Comments China Orders Montage Technology To Cease Production And Sale Aristides Capital • Today, 8:13 AM • 25 Comments Montage's stated set top box revenue is not consistent with its reputation as a very minor player; other brands dominate Montage by 10:1 to 35:1 among suppliers and finished goods. Montage produces the majority of chips in a 5 million chip per month black market; China's government recently ordered them to "stop illegal production and sales activities immediately". Excluding illegal chips, Montage trades at roughly 10x revenue. Neither PDSTI nor anyone else is likely to buy MONT at this price. Any of numerous catalysts could drop MONT precipitously. Yep that's why I bought put spreads that pay you $5 if it's fraud for the premium of 55 cents. I also would t short this for fear of halt risk and borrow risk. Some guys who successfully identified frauds got destroyed by borrow when share were halted for months. Anyways, the base case is obviously thT the deal goes through and I lose my money, but when you see a company that has delayed SEC filings announce a buyout 20 minutes after a seeking alpha article cries fraud and the acquirer is some state owned thing, I think it's a decent bet to taken given the odds the options market is giving you. Obviously to be done in small size. I know people have mixed feelings about tilson, but I think I agree with him that betting against this thing is a good risk reward , and the put spreads make it more appealing. I cloned the exact trade today, but only got 11 contracts filled at $0.55 spread. Like the risk-reward. In China, "only the fakery is real". Thanks for the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 Gift cards going for curious prices: http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=231251221870 And seller is charging $2.32 for email delivery... buying using stolen credit cards? I was curious why there were so many gift cards on sale at 80-90 face value. Then I learned hackers were laundering stolen gift cards using these gift cards reselling sites. The discount is warranted because any stolen cards have some possibility of being cancelled. That makes it clear why cards should sell at a discount, but the one I linked was selling at a premium. The face value was $50. It sold for $162.50. That is crazy for that premium. but i buy a ton of gift cards online and often times see ppl pay for more than face value and in my mind I'm just what.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Bought EUPIC:ATH, European Reliance General Insurance SA http://bovinebear.blogspot.com/2014/06/why-i-bought-european-reliance.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jouni1 Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 i found out they were giving out 2.15 on germany beating portugal today. it's a no-brainer based on the definition of football: two teams play for 90 minutes, germany wins. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Wrote June 125-strike puts on BRK/B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 PKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 PKX Switched ALS.TO+cash to PKX. Looks really good, PKX is now my biggest bet after BP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buylowersellhigh Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Anybody look at CBI recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 SINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonaut Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 @buylowersellhigh I have not looked at CBI since it rose last year...but I should look again as its dropping, see why and if it makes sense to buy back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Switched ALS.TO+cash to PKX. Looks really good, PKX is now my biggest bet after BP. Anything specific made you sell ALS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Switched ALS.TO+cash to PKX. Looks really good, PKX is now my biggest bet after BP. Anything specific made you sell ALS? Margin of safety is a lot higher in PKX and i didn`t really like the news gamble. But i wish everyone good luck with ALS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Dufresne Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Switched ALS.TO+cash to PKX. Looks really good, PKX is now my biggest bet after BP. Anything specific made you sell ALS? Margin of safety is a lot higher in PKX and i didn`t really like the news gamble. But i wish everyone good luck with ALS. frommi - can you elucidate what you believe is the MoS in Posco exactly? Thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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