What are you buying today?

[John Hjorth]

33 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

It is a bitch, but a very smart move John!

 

Thank you, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Yeah, it's also about trying to relate to the issues at hand discussed in in the JOE Investment Ideas forum, especially related to time horizon.

 

The plan to execute on going forward presented at the JOE AGM looks good to me.

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Thank you, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Yeah, it's also about trying to relate to the issues at hand discussed in in the JOE Investment Ideas forum, especially related to time horizon.

 

The plan to execute on going forward presented at the JOE AGM looks good to me.

 

Hey if Berkowitz wants to hand you cheap stock, all you need to do is hang on. 

 

The historical migration to Florida will go on for years.  It's the happiest state I know!

[Cod Liver Oil]

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tencent-ramps-buybacks-share-rout-002809157.html
 

This is best price/quality thing I see now alongside Nintendo. The flaws of both are well-known. Pick your poison. 

[Malmqky]

5 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tencent-ramps-buybacks-share-rout-002809157.html
 

This is best price/quality thing I see now alongside Nintendo. The flaws of both are well-known. Pick your poison. 

Are you buying via Prosus or the ADRs/HK listed shares?

 

I’m buying via Prosus for a few reasons, but dislike the company outside the Tencent investment..

[Cod Liver Oil]

@Malmqky I prefer my Tencent undiluted. The Prosus guy is a nuisance. He is more of a threat to Prosus than the CCP is to Tencent.

[dipod]

CVRX common. Don't say any reason for the big drop today so increased my position by about 40%. Now the 2nd largest in my portfolio.

[EgonKuhn]

New starter position in HONA (Honeywell Aerospace spin off)

[aws]

I'm a glutton for punishment so I've been nibbling on some Volkswagen

[John Hjorth]

9 hours ago, aws said:

I'm a glutton for punishment so I've been nibbling on some Volkswagen

 

HaHa!  - You just made my morning, @aws! 

 

Let's hear what you think! ...- Great deep value investment in a ... shiny turd

Edited 19 hours ago by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

15 hours ago, aws said:

I'm a glutton for punishment so I've been nibbling on some Volkswagen

Volkswagen is too dysfunctional even for my taste.I think there are plays in the German industrial sector that are more straightforward in terms of chance of success. MTX was the last one that I bought in decent size.

[Gregmal]

Bought a bunch of SSG. Seems pretty clear we re at the phase of the rally where “AIs gonna be big” is all the DD you need and any dumb bartender or grade school teacher is willing to give you that advice. 

[thepupil]

Just now, Gregmal said:

Bought a bunch of SSG. Seems pretty clear we re at the phase of the rally where “AIs gonna be big” is all the DD you need and any dumb bartender or grade school teacher is willing to give you that advice. 

 

curious why this vs shorting an unlevered ETF? or puts or something else. not straightforward at all to me to do it this way. 

[Gregmal]

50 minutes ago, thepupil said:

 

curious why this vs shorting an unlevered ETF? or puts or something else. not straightforward at all to me to do it this way. 

Options are for suckers at these implied vols. Didn’t wanna deal with actually shorting stuff. Tripled levered too much decay, single levered too boring. That’s about all the thought that went into it after for like the 8th time in 2-3 days hearing some mid 20s kids talking about which AI stocks they were buying while online at the store. 

[Paarslaars]

5 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Bought a bunch of SSG. Seems pretty clear we re at the phase of the rally where “AIs gonna be big” is all the DD you need and any dumb bartender or grade school teacher is willing to give you that advice. 

That shit scares me, 2x leveraged funds can wipe you out. Largest short position you have by owning this is on Micron which is trading below 8x forward PE. Sure forward PE can be optimistic but still...

 

Purely a sentiment feel on my part but I think you might be too early on this one which can be fatal on 2x leveraged funds.

[Mephistopheles]

Ya, I've been burned a few times trying to short the market via puts or buy vix calls/futures. I have an inclination that the best way to bet against this stuff is to buy far OTM puts, either long dated or continuous rolling of short dated. You'd lose on anything but massive drops, but if we do think this is a bubble, then we should bet on massive drops only.

[sleepydragon]

I’ve been through 2000. But I don’t think this is a bubble that will burst soon. Might just be the beginning 

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, Paarslaars said:

That shit scares me, 2x leveraged funds can wipe you out. Largest short position you have by owning this is on Micron which is trading below 8x forward PE. Sure forward PE can be optimistic but still...

 

Purely a sentiment feel on my part but I think you might be too early on this one which can be fatal on 2x leveraged funds.

It’s a bit under a 3% position so if it’s a wipeout it’s nbd. An 8x a generational EPS run is stupid expensive, not cheap. Didn’t we see that with Zoom not long ago? And yes, video meetings were gonna be big and still are big. 

[Eldad]

Yeah you sell chips at a low PE and buy at a high one. The lower the PE the closer to the peak probably. Oh yeah they aren’t cyclical anymore I forgot. 

[raveslayer]

Mostly a lurker so far, but this seems to be where the action is — so, recent adds, small slugs each:

 

EQT — flat YTD while everything AI-adjacent went vertical. The buildout's binding constraint is electrons, not chips, and the demand behind EQT is now contracted, not narrative. Breaks on Henry Hub: the volume is de-risked, the price isn't.

 

VICI — gaming triple-net at ~9x, high-6s yield. The rate de-rated, not the business: AFFO still growing, full occupancy, CPI-linked escalators. I'm paid ~7% to wait out a rate cycle. Breaks on tenant rent coverage, not on the 10-year.

 

ISRG — the installed base is the razor blade; instruments and procedures recur, the robot is almost incidental. Cheaper this year for a legitimate reason — credible competition — and I paid up knowing it. Breaks if procedure growth decelerates while instrument pricing compresses: two lines, same filing.

 

Common thread: things this tape left behind. Not advice — small discretionary book, sell-discipline keyed to business KPIs, and a ledger that will report back when one of these makes me look foolish.