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Posted
On 5/15/2026 at 8:36 PM, KPO said:

First of all I like companies that make tangible necessities, so no concern around AI displacement. Second I like market share leaders in a business that’s a near duopoly. Third they’ve grown free cash flow at an ~8%CAGR over 25 years, have raised the dividend for 30 years straight, bought back 2-3% of their shares per year over the last 13 years, and have done all this with a balance sheet that has had net cash more years than not. It’s currently trading at a 25% discount to its 20 year average P/E and EV/EBITDA.

 

I’ve wanted to own it for years as it’s a very well run company that still has a trustworthy family as significant shareholders, but it’s always been expensive, which is why I’m averaging in now.  I’m not particularly worried about the results in the last few or next few quarters. 

Thanks. Helpful. This was my thesis when I held it a year or so ago and I took a loss at 65 or so. Might restart. 

Posted
7 hours ago, valueinvesting101 said:

I saw some posts about buying options for Berkshire. Does anyone prefer longest duration available right now of Dec 2027 or does shorter one is more preferred?


Mixed bag! You just need to be willing to aggressively trade the shorter term ones. Every now and then, Berkshire has a big up day, which justifies the low IV. And you can sell some puts, even longer dated ones, to help finance it. For the most part you’re losing or break even and then on any given day you make it all back and then some.

Posted

I'm selling Universal Music to buy Tencent in my Roth IRA. 

 

I got lucky on timing and UMG worked out very well returning 33% in just a bit under two months. I see no reason to linger into it. I love the asset but it's pretty low growth and I despise management, meanwhile Tencent is at an all time valuation low.

Posted

Finally pulled the trigger on AutoNation. 

 

Small position, will probably add as it drops (figure the war/gas prices will temporarily hurt the business). 

Posted
1 hour ago, backtothebeach said:

Was the juice worth the squeeze? (pun intended)

 

No, not really. I mean I took 9 points, shorting at 180 and covering at 171, so it's not bad but I felt this funboy should have broken down harder and it didn't. Yesterday was a good set up - sold off to 167 and then... reverse uno card, big bids come in and rips back to 178. Sure it sold off again but meh, I didn't get good vibes

 

Way easier to make money going long, shorting gives you da heebie jeebies

 

Posted

In a few accounts, I am creating an ETF of the greatest companies in the world so I am adding to Tencent even though they can circumcise the VIE without anesthesia or prior warning.

Posted
28 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

In a few accounts, I am creating an ETF of the greatest companies in the world so I am adding to Tencent even though they can circumcise the VIE without anesthesia or prior warning.

 

What else do you have in your greatest companies ETF? 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

In a few accounts, I am creating an ETF of the greatest companies in the world so I am adding to Tencent even though they can circumcise the VIE without anesthesia or prior warning.

 

Add some Philip Morris for health purposes!

 

haha

 

Posted
5 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

In a few accounts, I am creating an ETF of the greatest companies in the world so I am adding to Tencent even though they can circumcise the VIE without anesthesia or prior warning.

Thats why I like Prosus better. That extra layer between me owning the asset directly is actually reducing tail risk, imo.

Posted (edited)

@Spekulatius you are right but I can't stand the perversity of the Prosus set up with them selling a GOAT and creating a massive overhang, in order to build a shitty venture fund, create jobs for themselves and argue "Math."  Simplicity, even with the risk of circumcision, is better than a janky Rube Goldberg sex doll.  I know you, @Luke and @MMM20 legitimately disagree. TME is also cheap.

Edited by Cod Liver Oil
Posted (edited)

Prosus CEO has seen the light and cut way back on the Tencent sales FWIW. They wrote about that shift a quarter or two ago... selling Delivery hero, Meituan, other non core stuff. Still bought back $100mm last week, and we still get more Tencent per Prosus share. But it’s far from perfect and I’ll flip to Tencent if it trades at a premium.

 

Edited by MMM20
Posted
1 hour ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

@Spekulatius you are right but I can't stand the perversity of the Prosus set up with them selling a GOAT to build a shitty venture fund, create jobs for themselves and argue "Math."  Simplicity, even with the risk of circumcision, is better than a janky Rube Goldberg sex doll.  I know you, @Luke and @MMM20 legitimately disagree. 

I calculated  this and pound for pound , you more Tencent/ share than a few years ago. The beauty of trading below NAV and doing large buybacks.

Posted
On 4/1/2026 at 9:57 AM, lnofeisone said:

BUG, PANW, ZS, SKYH, NU - some starters, some restarters. 

sold PANW and ZS. 50% in 2 months is wild. Recycled gains into JOE, TCEHY, GEHC, and SMMNY. 

Posted

small adds daily to my "software is not dead bucket" : TYLER, ADBE, CSU, Lumine, Topicus, VRRM, NTDOY, ZETA.

 

Sold some puts on CPNG.

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