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Posted (edited)

XEQT. This is a broad based ETF based in C$ (so appropriate for a Canadian investor). My cash is down to 35%. 
 

My view is stock picking is getting more difficult with Trump - he will now be picking the winners and losers (industries/stocks). So another variable has been added to the purchase decision. The beauty of an index fund is over time it will constantly rebalance - add more of the winners and subtract the losers. 
 

This particular ETF is also global (42% US, 25% Canada, 33% Europe/Asia), which I also like given the current set-up.

 

XEQT is currently trading down 13% from its recent highs - that is a pretty steep drawdown for a broad based ETF.
 

I wanted to start buying stocks earlier today… but I did not know what to add. I felt a little like a deer in the headlights. And then I got a blinding glimpse of the obvious… just buy a broad based index. Problem solved. Thank you John Boggle (although the ETF I bought is not a Vanguard product). 

Edited by Viking
Posted
10 minutes ago, Viking said:

XEQT. This is a broad based ETF based in C$ (so appropriate for a Canadian investor). My cash is down to 35%. 
 

My view is stock picking is getting more difficult with Trump - he will now be picking the winners and losers (industries/stocks). So another variable has been added to the purchase decision. The beauty of an index fund is over time it will constantly rebalance - add more of the winners and subtract the losers. 
 

This particular ETF is also global (45% US, 25% Canada, 30% Europe/Asia), which I also like given the current set-up.

 

XEQT is currently trading down 13% from its recent highs - that is a pretty steep drawdown for a broad based ETF.
 

I wanted to start buying stocks earlier today… but I did not know what to add. I felt a little like a deer in the headlights. And then I got a blinding glimpse of the obvious… just buy a broad based index. Problem solved. Thank you John Boggle (although the ETF I bought is not a Vanguard product). 

Good strategy for a lot of folks but don't go all in at once.  As an aside, someone needs to explain to me why most stocks growing 5-10%/year with not much optionality are worth 20-30x earnings.  Call me old fashioned.

Posted

“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.”

Shelby Cullom Davis
 

What is going on right now is a gift for investors, especially those who are younger. 

Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Why? Less to lose. 

But bigger potential impact at this point in time. Many of the multi millionaire early retirees here will be fine losing a million, no impact on lifestyle. But those still grinding to build that nest egg to retire early on, can get set back quite a bit on a 100k drop, potentially postponing retirement with multiple years.

 

Not the worst thing in the world though.😋 however they also stand more to gain on the rebound.

Edited by Paarslaars
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Why? Less to lose. 

My net worth is not even six figures but I am all in on BRK and FFH. I suppose the red figures do have an impact on ones psychology after all. Independent of how much you are worth. But I trust the management and keep adding monthly.

Edited by adventurer
Posted
1 minute ago, Paarslaars said:

But bigger potential impact at this point in time. Many of the multi millionaire early retirees here will be fine losing a million, no impact on lifestyle. But those still grinding to build that nest egg to retire early on, can get set back quite a bit on a 100k drop, potentially postponing retirement with multiple years.

 

Not the worst thing in the world though.😋 however they also stand more to gain on the rebound.

 

yes but it's soooo much easier to supplement a small young portfolio with savings. if your portfolio is 2x your annual savings you can have a -50% investment return and still be flat in $$ at end of year. if you have 10x your annual savings then you lose 5 years in a 50% decline. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, adventurer said:

My net worth is not even six figures but I am all in on BRK and FFH. I suppose the red figures do have an impact on ones psychology after all. Independent of how much you are worth. But I trust the management and keep adding monthly.

Yea I mean you can sit around trying to protect small amounts of money, which is basically anything you have if you’re under 30, or you can take some risk to better your future.

 

In a theoretical world the idea of me working at 50 or 60 or 70 who gives a fuck. It’s all the same and my objective was always to not be doing anything unless by choice at those ages, or at least die trying lol

Posted
4 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

But bigger potential impact at this point in time. Many of the multi millionaire early retirees here will be fine losing a million, no impact on lifestyle. But those still grinding to build that nest egg to retire early on, can get set back quite a bit on a 100k drop, potentially postponing retirement with multiple years.

 

Not the worst thing in the world though.😋 however they also stand more to gain on the rebound.

 

I'd argue that multi millionaire early retirees have far more to worry about, but I guess it depends how many multi-millions you've had. I'd be sweating if I was retired at 45 with $ 4 million in a high cost of living state and kids still living at home. At $10 million it wouldn't be such a big deal. 

 

About 5 years ago it felt like $80-$100k of income a year with a paid off home would be plenty to live an upper middle class type lifestyle, today it would be VERY tight with health premiums and rapidly increasing property tax and homeowners insurance costs. And that's before any tariff uncertainty. 

Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

 

I'd argue that multi millionaire early retirees have far more to worry about, but I guess it depends how many multi-millions you've had. I'd be sweating if I was retired at 45 with $ 4 million in a high cost of living state and kids still living at home. At $10 million it wouldn't be such a big deal. 

 

About 5 years ago it felt like $80-$100k of income a year with a paid off home would be plenty to live an upper middle class type lifestyle, today it would be VERY tight with health premiums and rapidly increasing property tax and homeowners insurance costs. And that's before any tariff uncertainty. 

My perspective (also practiced) is while you're young, focus more on your earnings potential  - do something that interests you and provides growth opportunities if at all possible.  Adjust your lifestyle so your earnings always exceeds what you spend and save/invest the rest.  The young folks I see and try to help often are either good investors but spend too much or have plenty of disposable income but shy away from taking adequate risk.  Find a proper balance to suit your own capabilities but living below your means requires mostly just discipline.  When you're young and market downdrafts scare you it is primarily because you lack the means to invest at the right times, i.e., during scary periods.

Edited by 73 Reds
spelling
Posted
19 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

But bigger potential impact at this point in time. Many of the multi millionaire early retirees here will be fine losing a million, no impact on lifestyle. But those still grinding to build that nest egg to retire early on, can get set back quite a bit on a 100k drop, potentially postponing retirement with multiple years.

 

Not the worst thing in the world though.😋 however they also stand more to gain on the rebound.

 

Do you get upset when the big pack of toilet paper at Costco goes on sale? The earlier and the cheaper you can accumulate assets the better. 

 

“The stock market is the only market where things go on sale and all the customers run out of the store.” Cullen Roche

Posted
19 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

In a theoretical world the idea of me working at 50 or 60 or 70 who gives a fuck. It’s all the same and my objective was always to not be doing anything unless by choice at those ages, or at least die trying lol

 

The line I heard recently was - "you've made it when you choose what time to wake up every day"

 

Well I schedule all my work shit for post-12pm, so I'll say I'm halfway there.

 

Trump tariffs are knocking down my portfolio a bit, but I've skiied more days post-Jan 20 than Trump has golfed, so he can go screw off 🙂

 

Buys today include:

SPY (in some limited trading accounts)

Fairfax & Fairfax India

MGM

NVO, RGEN

MSGE

CASH

CPNG

Ollamani (sold), CNC (sold)

Posted
7 minutes ago, thepupil said:

 

yes but it's soooo much easier to supplement a small young portfolio with savings. if your portfolio is 2x your annual savings you can have a -50% investment return and still be flat in $$ at end of year. if you have 10x your annual savings then you lose 5 years in a 50% decline. 

True but you are referring to someone very young.. I am 37 and still consider myself you but my portfolio is like 20x annual savings.

 

But reading Red Lion's post does remind me of the difference between countries. Savings here are much less than in Canada or US because of the 45% tax rate. Then again costs are much lower...

Posted
9 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

Do you get upset when the big pack of toilet paper at Costco goes on sale? The earlier and the cheaper you can accumulate assets the better. 

 

“The stock market is the only market where things go on sale and all the customers run out of the store.” Cullen Roche

When I just bought a bunch at double current price and I am out of money, yeah kinda. 😅

Posted
10 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

My perspective (also practiced) is while you're young, focus more on your earnings potential  - do something that interests you and provides growth opportunities if at all possible.  Adjust your lifestyle so your earnings always exceeds what you spend and save/invest the rest.  The young folks I see and try to help often are either good investors but spend too much or have plenty of disposable income but shy away from taking adequate risk.  Find a proper balance to suit your own capabilities but living below your means requires mostly just discipline.  When you're young and market downdrafts scare you it is primarily because you lack the means to invest at the right times, i.e., during scary periods.

This seems like solid advice, and I agree even though I'm less practiced than you. I've certainly reached a net worth where I would have thought pre-covid I could retire (at 40), and I realize now that I'd need to tighten the belt, and I'd really be sweating if we had a REAL market downturn (which will certainly happen several times before I qualify for social security/medicare). 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

When I just bought a bunch at double current price and I am out of money, yeah kinda. 😅

 

lol I hear you, but cost basis is your friend. Have a capital allocation plan to average in and stick with it. 

Posted
7 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

This seems like solid advice, and I agree even though I'm less practiced than you. I've certainly reached a net worth where I would have thought pre-covid I could retire (at 40), and I realize now that I'd need to tighten the belt, and I'd really be sweating if we had a REAL market downturn (which will certainly happen several times before I qualify for social security/medicare). 

Well, retirement is another one of those things that is different for everyone.  I always hated the thought of doing nothing productive so if "retirement" still involves some sort of money-making activity, don't sweat it as much.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

But reading Red Lion's post does remind me of the difference between countries. Savings here are much less than in Canada or US because of the 45% tax rate. Then again costs are much lower...

 

Most of my savings have occurred at a ~45% tax rate due to swings in earnings. Retirement accounts help, but if you have a variable income and have a big year there's not that many good places to invest a significant percent pretax. 

 

One of the biggest differences country to country I suspect is the ability to get social healthcare upon early retirement. If you're 40 and want to pull $100,000 a year you might want an investment portfolio of $3-$4 million depending on risk tolerance. But if you have a family in the USA you can expect to spend $30-$35k in health insurance premiums. Then probably $20k in property taxes and insurance (assuming you've managed to payoff a home in one of the coastal states). Then another $15-$20k in groceries assuming you're cooking healthy food at home. Then you'll be paying capital gains and dividend taxes on your investment portfolio. Probably about another $10k. Since you're a multimillionaire your kids are going to get hit with full price on college education which you either need to pay yourself, or set your kids up at a significant disadvantage to the 70% of kids that get huge subsidies. You could obviously reduce these numbers if you didn't have a family or if you want to live in Oklahoma. 

 

Anyway, in the above scenario, I'd be sweating a $500k unrealized loss not to mention a $million. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

 

Most of my savings have occurred at a ~45% tax rate due to swings in earnings. Retirement accounts help, but if you have a variable income and have a big year there's not that many good places to invest a significant percent pretax. 

 

One of the biggest differences country to country I suspect is the ability to get social healthcare upon early retirement. If you're 40 and want to pull $100,000 a year you might want an investment portfolio of $3-$4 million depending on risk tolerance. But if you have a family in the USA you can expect to spend $30-$35k in health insurance premiums. Then probably $20k in property taxes and insurance (assuming you've managed to payoff a home in one of the coastal states). Then another $15-$20k in groceries assuming you're cooking healthy food at home. Then you'll be paying capital gains and dividend taxes on your investment portfolio. Probably about another $10k. Since you're a multimillionaire your kids are going to get hit with full price on college education which you either need to pay yourself, or set your kids up at a significant disadvantage to the 70% of kids that get huge subsidies. You could obviously reduce these numbers if you didn't have a family or if you want to live in Oklahoma. 

 

Anyway, in the above scenario, I'd be sweating a $500k unrealized loss not to mention a $million. 

@Red Lion Even the scenario you posted requires context.  How much of the $3-$4 million portfolio is comprised of capital gains?  How long did it take you to build that portfolio?  If you're still "young", why can't you do it again (and again)?   If you're competent, both your income level and investment skills will likely continue to improve over time.  

Posted
58 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

C leaps 

 

Welcome to Fraser-alley. Cheap prices but a sketchy neighborhood.

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