What are you buying today?

[sleepydragon]

2 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

 

Yesterday was a great day for THRX, was able to pick up shares for only $3.70 and shares traded as low as $3.68. Unfortunately bouncing back up today.

 

Everytime I open my account screen in interactive brokers and it's down near two month lows I get depressed, then snap out of it and realize it's opportunity I'm smelling (er I mean "money" Mr Vannett) and find something like THRX inexplicably in the dumper.  Now when my account is up near two week highs it’s starting to depress me.

Every time I boost to my wife that I am making money on stock market , she will ask me why it’s still below the last high point….  

[Luke]

Added to EVO, bit late to the drop party but still value

[throw123]

Starting position in HSY

[maplevalue]

Added to Scottish Mortgage Trust

[Ross812]

Added to JCI and bought a 1% position in HUM.

[Luke]

Will sell my full Nintendo position later when Tokyo opens, tax loss harvest Lufax against 10% gain on Nintendo position to not be forced to pay capital gains and rebuy the entire Nintendo position on 1.5% margin. There are no tax loss wash sale rules in germany so will rebuy entire lufax position immediately. 

 

Will put the equity of Nintendo into EXOR, OXY, CEIX and some BRK. 

 

Portfolio will be on 10% margin then, which is acceptable to me.

 

 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Luca

[dipod]

JOE, GENGF, OBE, PFE

[ValueArb]

THRX dumped off again late in session, picked up shares as low as $3.67.

[KJP]

18 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

THRX dumped off again late in session, picked up shares as low as $3.67.

 

Me too at $3.69

[valueventures]

Starter position in Strathcona (STHRF). Canada's 5th largest oil company. Waterous owns 90% of the business, and it's traded down since its recent reverse merger of Pipestone.

 

 

[ValueArb]

Today I bought a 2020 Audi Q5 "45 TFSI Quattro Titanium" whatever that is. At 190,000 miles my Cayenne basically has become a mechanics dream, a permanent annuity for their kids college fund. The Audi is certified in perfect condition, still has a year left on its warranty and cost barely half its sticker price from three years ago. Electronics are a bit dated, but I care a lot more about the price than I do wireless CarPlay.

 

And I financed it 100%, even better than a margin loan;)

[Spekulatius]

11 hours ago, Ross812 said:

Added to JCI and bought a 1% position in HUM.

I added to my JCI position recently as well. I also got a first lot of HUM last night and will try to get more in my other accounts.

[Ross812]

11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I added to my JCI position recently as well. I also got a first lot of HUM last night and will try to get more in my other accounts.

 

I talked with my neighbor who is a salesman for JCI. He works with HVAC engineering firms who spec JCI equipment and said JCI is really the only game in town when it comes to campus wide HVAC control and the products sells itself. His job as a "salesman" is maintaining relationships and introducing new products. I asked about potential competitors, but he said engineering firms are not going to risk their reputation on new entrants and the controls are a small component of the overall price tag. 

 

I think Humana is getting hit by sector rotation, tax loss selling, loss of the Cigna deal, and employee RSUs just vested. They dressed themselves up for sale to Cigna and I have a feeling the next year or two are going to look good. Its on sale for at least 10% under fair value and is a good/great company.  

 

[sleepydragon]

On 12/19/2023 at 12:58 PM, ValueArb said:

 

 

Yesterday was a great day for THRX, was able to pick up shares for only $3.70 and shares traded as low as $3.68. Unfortunately bouncing back up today.

 

Everytime I open my account screen in interactive brokers and it's down near two month lows I get depressed, then snap out of it and realize it's opportunity I'm smelling (er I mean "money" Mr Vannett) and find something like THRX inexplicably in the dumper.  Now when my account is up near two week highs its starting to depress me.

deal announced. This is my first liquidation play. Wow, I must say this can become quite addictive. 5% for me on this stock in less than 2 weeks. 

Edited December 22, 2023 by sleepydragon

[lnofeisone]

2 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

deal announced. This is my first liquidation play. Wow, I must say this can become quite addictive. 5% for me on this stock in less than 2 weeks. 

I'm in the same boat. It's a very small position. I like the CVR component as a free option. The other one that clicked for me was MRTX. I should probably stop as I have 0 expertise in this field. 

[ValueArb]

5 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

deal announced. This is my first liquidation play. Wow, I must say this can become quite addictive. 5% for me on this stock in less than 2 weeks. 

 

I thought I was struggling to build a position because I didn't want to pay more than $3.70, but actually reached a 13% position yesterday so this was nice news. Looking at their balance sheet I'm fairly confident they'll be able to pay out the additional 15 cents for $4.05 at closing. No idea on value of CVR.

[keegomaster]

On 12/20/2023 at 6:36 AM, throw123 said:

Starting position in HSY

I have also started looking at HSY recently, similarly with PFE. These are the companies that one wishes to own for the long term but are usually expensive. So when they start to trade around 52w lows I start to consider them... Especially when most positions in my current portfolio seem to be fairly valued and not attractive for the next marginal investment. 

 

For HSY the narrative around the price decline seems to be Ozempic and other related weight loss drugs. To me those fears seem overblown, and I plan to continue reading and understanding HSY's financials and probable future performance. 

 

Is there anything else to consider as potential threats or concerns to HSY? 

 

Cheers! 

[ValueArb]

5 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

I'm in the same boat. It's a very small position. I like the CVR component as a free option. The other one that clicked for me was MRTX. I should probably stop as I have 0 expertise in this field. 

 

I started to sell at $4.09 a share but then stopped when I dug into the CVR. As usual it's extremely hard to value, but it's unlike almost all of the CVRs I've seen. Typically you get a percentage of IP sales of dubious marketability, or payouts based on successful test results years in the future, and we got the first case here. But they also added a payout for 50% of some undescribed cost savings in the first 6 months. That seems to me to be a clause that THRX management only would negotiate for if they thought it was low hanging fruit that was very likely to happen. 

 

But again, I can't value it, I'm just not going to give it up without a substantial premium to the $4.05 I'm increasingly regarding as the minimum payout. Otherwise I expect them to close in February and only have to wait until September to find out if it was a worthwhile gamble.

[lnofeisone]

15 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

I started to sell at $4.09 a share but then stopped when I dug into the CVR. As usual it's extremely hard to value, but it's unlike almost all of the CVRs I've seen. Typically you get a percentage of IP sales of dubious marketability, or payouts based on successful test results years in the future, and we got the first case here. But they also added a payout for 50% of some undescribed cost savings in the first 6 months. That seems to me to be a clause that THRX management only would negotiate for if they thought it was low hanging fruit that was very likely to happen. 

 

But again, I can't value it, I'm just not going to give it up without a substantial premium to the $4.05 I'm increasingly regarding as the minimum payout. Otherwise I expect them to close in February and only have to wait until September to find out if it was a worthwhile gamble.

I'm of the same mind. No idea how to value the CVR so I assume it's just an cool option with a savings kicker. I got 10% for waiting 3 months for this thing to close. I could do worse. 

[longlake95]

GIL

[dipod]

TSLA 2025 LEAP puts about 20% OTM partly as a speculative instrument but also as a portfolio hedge.

 

Working thesis: losing the EV subsidy on most of their cars next year, declining prices on most of their models which will hurt margins/profits, recalls/bad press on many of their vehicles with reliability issues, profitability for the second half of this year has not been great but still > 100% rise YTD, increasing competition within the EV space.

[50centdollars]

14 hours ago, longlake95 said:

GIL

what are your thoughts on this? I'm not sure what to make of this circus. 

[longlake95]

4 hours ago, 50centdollars said:

what are your thoughts on this? I'm not sure what to make of this circus. 

 

https://thecobf.com/forum/topic/5569-gil-gildan-activewear-inc/page/5/#comment-544625

 

[Luke]

Have a buy order in for the 27th to buy the Prosus dip on Euronext! 

[aceskc]

On 12/22/2023 at 10:34 AM, keegomaster said:

I have also started looking at HSY recently, similarly with PFE. These are the companies that one wishes to own for the long term but are usually expensive. So when they start to trade around 52w lows I start to consider them... Especially when most positions in my current portfolio seem to be fairly valued and not attractive for the next marginal investment. 

 

For HSY the narrative around the price decline seems to be Ozempic and other related weight loss drugs. To me those fears seem overblown, and I plan to continue reading and understanding HSY's financials and probable future performance. 

 

Is there anything else to consider as potential threats or concerns to HSY? 

 

Cheers! 

Beastables