Lance Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 Added to BTI, RGLD and UTG Wrote puts on MMP, MO and TSM Thanks Lance
formthirteen Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 Bought ASC.L and BOO.L a couple of weeks ago. So far, not good. In ten years, let's see. At least I seem to have enough conviction to hold both stonks through this drawdown.
Spekulatius Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 16 hours ago, kab60 said: Yes. It has been 40 years of bad headlines and ever increasing FCF/share for Altria. I think the current valuation look almost too good to be true, not least considering the broader market and potential for inflation, but I feel like I might be missing something big. It's almost too easy if it's just headline risks and ESG turning investors away. I often find those two points to be bad excuses for underperformance, but I can't really figure out a scenario where one loses money on MO longterm from these levels (I think the biggest risk is dumb capital allocation, and even that seems to have been derisked with some sounds decision recently - selling wine biz, launching (small) buybacks). While we could be missing something as far as business is concerned, I think the likely explanation that fund flows into tobacco equity is negative because ESG and investment mandates exclude more and more investors from owning them. I know quite a few investors who would never own tobacco /nicotine stocks (for ESG or other reasons) and actually Berkshire is one of them. I actually think it is possible that this changes when Buffett is not around any more.
Pistachio_Lawyer Posted October 4, 2021 Posted October 4, 2021 Anyone else hoping BABA will drop below PE 15 so they load up on some more?
Gregmal Posted October 4, 2021 Posted October 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, Pistachio_Lawyer said: Anyone else hoping BABA will drop below PE 15 so they load up on some more? People have been clamoring about how cheap BABA is for $100 a share now. BABA as an investment has nothing to do with the company's PE at this point in time.
Pistachio_Lawyer Posted October 4, 2021 Posted October 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Gregmal said: People have been clamoring about how cheap BABA is for $100 a share now. BABA as an investment has nothing to do with the company's PE at this point in time. I write this half hoping you’re capable of reading comprehension, but my original statement had to do with people on this forum buying more as it gets cheaper
longlake95 Posted October 4, 2021 Posted October 4, 2021 (edited) ^ yikes Edited October 4, 2021 by longlake95
Gregmal Posted October 5, 2021 Posted October 5, 2021 Oh hello there AIV 23 and 24 leaps. I feel like we're gonna have some fun together soon.
lnofeisone Posted October 5, 2021 Posted October 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Gregmal said: Oh hello there AIV 23 and 24 leaps. I feel like we're gonna have some fun together soon. Ha - just saw someone getting 100 (looks like a 90 and another 10 contracts) 7.5C at 1.90. I'm assuming it was you. Curious who is selling these though.
Gregmal Posted October 5, 2021 Posted October 5, 2021 ^Haha Im not going in hard yet cuz Ive found when a new set pops up it takes a short while for the spreads and market for them to firm up. But these are absolutely, exactly what I want. Wish APTS had these. 2024 is the year the board de-staggers as well. Basically, by then the company will be up for grabs and free and clear to the highest bidder if shit does play out properly. Current NAV is likely mid teens.
kab60 Posted October 6, 2021 Posted October 6, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 7:58 AM, formthirteen said: Bought ASC.L and BOO.L a couple of weeks ago. So far, not good. In ten years, let's see. At least I seem to have enough conviction to hold both stonks through this drawdown. Can to put some words on your thesis?
formthirteen Posted October 6, 2021 Posted October 6, 2021 (edited) 6 hours ago, kab60 said: Can to put some words on your thesis? ROE/ROIC + yuge revenue growth = profit 5-10 years from now? Both are global software and advertising businesses. ASOS 10-year median ROE (20%), ROIC (20%), and revenue growth (31%), P/E ~20 seems "OK", price seems low if if we extrapolate from past numbers: https://quickfs.net/company/ASC:LN NTM EV/EBIT multiple ~16 near a ten year low. BOO growing faster and is more expensive: https://quickfs.net/company/BOO:LN Nick Sleep. Problems: ESG, inflation and labor costs, competition, management (BOO). Edited October 6, 2021 by formthirteen
Spekulatius Posted October 6, 2021 Posted October 6, 2021 5 hours ago, formthirteen said: ROE/ROIC + yuge revenue growth = profit 5-10 years from now? Both are global software and advertising businesses. ASOS 10-year median ROE (20%), ROIC (20%), and revenue growth (31%), P/E ~20 seems "OK", price seems low if if we extrapolate from past numbers: https://quickfs.net/company/ASC:LN NTM EV/EBIT multiple ~16 near a ten year low. BOO growing faster and is more expensive: https://quickfs.net/company/BOO:LN Nick Sleep. Problems: ESG, inflation and labor costs, competition, management (BOO). This may be an incredible stupid question but after looking a bit in this space (and particularly Boo. L) what is the ESG concern here?
formthirteen Posted October 6, 2021 Posted October 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: This may be an incredible stupid question but after looking a bit in this space (and particularly Boo. L) what is the ESG concern here? Ultra-fast fashion is not environmentally friendly. Automation and minimizing labor costs is not socially responsible (according to socialists). BooHoo might have some governance issues according to Shadowfall's short report: https://t.co/Ejhc1DbCv9?amp=1
BG2008 Posted October 6, 2021 Posted October 6, 2021 2 hours ago, ERICOPOLY said: BABA calls. What duration? How much of a position size?
ERICOPOLY Posted October 6, 2021 Posted October 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, BG2008 said: What duration? How much of a position size? 5% position. June 2022.
BG2008 Posted October 6, 2021 Posted October 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said: 5% position. June 2022. Thanks Eric! Is that 5% of capital at risk? Also what strike? I really appreciate you sharing the details.
ERICOPOLY Posted October 6, 2021 Posted October 6, 2021 (edited) 19 minutes ago, BG2008 said: Thanks Eric! Is that 5% of capital at risk? Also what strike? I really appreciate you sharing the details. Yes. Potential for 5% of capital vaporized. Strikes are $70, $110. $140. Edited October 6, 2021 by ERICOPOLY deleted $115 due to misremembering
LC Posted October 6, 2021 Posted October 6, 2021 Eric, I assume given the deep ITM/ATM options, you would like to hold BABA for the long term? Otherwise, why not buy further OTM calls for more leverage?
Gregmal Posted October 6, 2021 Posted October 6, 2021 LOL Meanwhile, a good percentage of folks are scared to go 5% on a single, non controversial STOCK! Not to mention the numerous financial literature and textbooks that tell you 5% is too risky. Just shows how the system is designed to keep people poor and reliant on financial services.
ERICOPOLY Posted October 6, 2021 Posted October 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, LC said: Eric, I assume given the deep ITM/ATM options, you would like to hold BABA for the long term? Otherwise, why not buy further OTM calls for more leverage? I might do that yet. This is my first purchase of a Chinese stock ever.
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