finetrader Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 Quote MSGE calls A bet on the NY Giants ? ( to finally win a game and prop up MSG Network membership)
ERICOPOLY Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, finetrader said: A bet on the NY Giants ? ( to finally win a game and prop up MSG Network membership) Delta wave is going to be over like clockwork by February.
fareastwarriors Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 (edited) More $JBGS under $30. Edited September 30, 2021 by fareastwarriors
oscarazocar Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, finetrader said: A bet on the NY Giants ? ( to finally win a game and prop up MSG Network membership) The Giants have nothing to do with MSGE. That's the Rangers & Knicks.
Mephistopheles Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 BTI @ 8.5% yield. Easy when borrowing at 1-2% from IBKR
thepupil Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, Gregmal said: CLI clearly for sale, but what px? BTIG says $26 NAV on not entirely bearish assumptions. 101 sale de-levers office to virtually no debt, MF is levered but all non-recourse / asset specific (plus the pref), what are your thoughts here?
finetrader Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 (edited) Quote The Giants have nothing to do with MSGE. That's the Rangers & Knicks. NY Giants are broadcasted by MSG Networks , which is part of MSGE now. but I agree, Giants don't have much to say about MSGE stock performance They are just... well.. heu... my favorite team Edited September 30, 2021 by finetrader
Gregmal Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, thepupil said: clearly for sale, but what px? BTIG says $26 NAV on not entirely bearish assumptions. 101 sale de-levers office to virtually no debt, MF is levered but all non-recourse / asset specific (plus the pref), what are your thoughts here? Not a whole lot that you probably dont already know. They're done for the most part with office...I hate office, so thats mainly what I was waiting for. Whats left there will move. Beautiful waterfront buildings. Otherwise you just have some really good assets on the MF side. I actually like it quite a bit more than CLPR here for the simple reason that governance seems in check, the properties are better, and again, where's your downside now? One of the better ways historically to play any sort of bullishness on NYC has been to buy certain types of NJ assets. Jersey City is the new Hoboken. Lease ups have been strong as well. Lotta different things could go right and not too much from what I can see that can go wrong at this stage of the game. Whats your realistic risks on this? Mine were total disdain for office and especially suburban office. Those are no more.
thepupil Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 I think CLI's balance sheet risk is gone completely. they can (as you say) sell the remaining office and inject a boat load of capital into the multifamily. so I'd say CLI has none of the "omg 15x EBITDA debt" risk that Jim Chanos was tweeting about anymore. the biggest risk i see is simply execution and valuation on the multifamily side. you can drive a truck through the run rate NOI and the pro-forma NOI that gets you to an okay cap rate, and the disclosure on the land bank/land options is dogshit. I have little clue as to the credibility of the "$XXK / unit / site" they throw out in their NAV buildup. I think it gets sold, low $20's to $30. I've considered it as a replacement for some CDR/LAACZ exposure that I think is gone before year end ( in each I'm holding despite 70-100%+ appreciation this year as I expect them to transact above the current prices). as far as catalyst/clarity of incentives, to me it seems like one of the better things out there. just a question of what to pay/what worth.
Gregmal Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 Ya. Probability wise, I see low 20s as a reasonable and highly likely target and I see mid teens as a safe place to back into a bigger position if you get that downside. Not really much impairment risk, IMO. Either way, its fun playing the discount to NAV games when a company is actually selling assets. One of the easier event driven type trades out there, especially since covid shook everything up.
fareastwarriors Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Mephistopheles said: BTI @ 8.5% yield. Easy when borrowing at 1-2% from IBKR Added recently as well.
Spekulatius Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 14 hours ago, fareastwarriors said: Added recently as well. I am also adding to BTI. Might add to MO as well. Owning tobacco stocks means getting constantly screwed over while cashing in ever increasing dividends.
Spekulatius Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 (edited) Small adds to BTI, MO, BMY, NTDOY, MXCT MEGACPO.MX and a starter in ALSN. Edited October 1, 2021 by Spekulatius
cubsfan Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 More MSGE - 70.35 should have gotten up earlier!
Castanza Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 1 hour ago, ERICOPOLY said: ATCO calls Go big or go home?
Spekulatius Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Small adds to BTI, MO, BMY, NTDOY, MXCT MEGACPO.MX and a starter in ALSN. Picked up a few FRFHF shares at the close.
kab60 Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 10 hours ago, Spekulatius said: I am also adding to BTI. Might add to MO as well. Owning tobacco stocks means getting constantly screwed over while cashing in ever increasing dividends. Yes. It has been 40 years of bad headlines and ever increasing FCF/share for Altria. I think the current valuation look almost too good to be true, not least considering the broader market and potential for inflation, but I feel like I might be missing something big. It's almost too easy if it's just headline risks and ESG turning investors away. I often find those two points to be bad excuses for underperformance, but I can't really figure out a scenario where one loses money on MO longterm from these levels (I think the biggest risk is dumb capital allocation, and even that seems to have been derisked with some sounds decision recently - selling wine biz, launching (small) buybacks).
KPO Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 3 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Picked up a few FRFHF shares at the close. Same. Limit filled one minute before close.
Spekulatius Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, KPO said: Same. Limit filled one minute before close. Yeah, mine filled literally in the last few seconds, I believe. I paid $393 and a few pennies. Someone really wanted to get rid of shares before the weekend.
KPO Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Yeah, mine filled literally in the last few seconds, I believe. I paid $393 and a few pennies. Someone really wanted to get rid of shares before the weekend. That was my thought as well. I always throw lowball limit orders out late in the day when I see things like this cratering on no news. This has happened a few times recently with Fairfax.
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