What are you buying today?

[Gregmal]

On 8/19/2021 at 10:12 AM, Gregmal said:

shorted a few CLF $22 puts for 8/27

The gift that keeps on giving. Another round of 

 

[hasilp89]

10 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The gift that keeps on giving. Another round of 

 

thank you, jumped in on that one. 

[fareastwarriors]

More $JBGS at 30. 

[Gregmal]

4 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

i think strong market is propping up PTON today. I was expecting/hoping for a bigger drop. 

What also interesting, is I could totally see one of those smash and grab firms like Muddy Waters or whatever targeting this now too. It would be the typically sensational, exaggerated, largely fabricated narrative BS, but all of the ingredients are there now for a bombastic short raid. If I was involved in the type of work I did awhile ago I'd probably spend the weekend creating a 30 page report about the Peloton Death Machine: Potential Bankruptcy Risk....with accelerating losses, major accounting concerns and potential fraud, goosed engagement metrics, huge price cuts on their keys products while still offering junk financing to anything with a pulse, and the botched recall with unprecedented liability. None of which IMO is really "that" dire, but you could absolutely make that presentation and I'd be surprised if some number centric finance douche doesnt try to capitalize on it. 

[lnofeisone]

Greg - I'd like to see that scenario. I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if PTON dips sub $100 and genuinely shocked if it touches May lows. Waiting for people to turn rational has been a fool's game for the last 10 years.

[CorpRaider]

On 8/26/2021 at 1:29 PM, fareastwarriors said:

Added more CLPR

 

BG got me hyped!

Did he post something or publish a letter?

[Spekulatius]

17 minutes ago, CorpRaider said:

Did he post something or publish a letter?

 

[CorpRaider]

Thx!

[Gregmal]

On 8/27/2021 at 1:52 PM, Gregmal said:

^thats kind of the angle I'm trading here. I dont think anyone buying a stock like PTON really knows what theyre doing anymore than the folks buying GME and AMC type stuff, but having the ER Thursday into the Friday of Jackson Hole and market rallying perhaps props things up, along with the absolutely bizarre loyalty today from all the bullish analysts.... my hunch is the weekend pause and any sort of possible pullback next week maybe a catalyst for the bottom to come out. You can buy $105s for 2.70 and $100s for $1 and if it revisits some of the after hour prints from yesterday you make several times your money.  

Flipped the 105s which now pull the basis there and cover the majority of the outlay on the 100s. Basically a free play now. 

[Spekulatius]

On 8/4/2021 at 7:45 PM, Spekulatius said:

NTDOY / Nintendo (starter) and a tracker in ATVI.

Adding just a few more shares to my $ATVI tracker.

[Gregmal]

On 7/19/2021 at 3:15 PM, Gregmal said:

Just put another 3/2 waterfront townhome under contract. 30 year fixed FTW. YOLO. 

Just closed on this recently. Ironically enough, more anecdotal evidence for the @BG2008 NY revival thesis...the seller was a PGRE exec who got called back to the office in Manhattan, starting in September. Fun times. 

[BG2008]

35 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Just closed on this recently. Ironically enough, more anecdotal evidence for the @BG2008 NY revival thesis...the seller was a PGRE exec who got called back to the office in Manhattan, starting in September. Fun times. 

 

@Gregmal You are a beast with those private purchases.  We should probably create a CLPR thread.  Generally, people get to buy NYC at a discount every 10 years or so.  9/11, GFC, and Covid.  Rhythm is about right. 

[gary17]

my friends from the US are telling me an unemployed person with all the federal support, etc is getting about $4000 - $5000 USD / month for not working - is that true?

[lnofeisone]

46 minutes ago, gary17 said:

my friends from the US are telling me an unemployed person with all the federal support, etc is getting about $4000 - $5000 USD / month for not working - is that true?

The general answer to your question is no. The average unemployed person gets nowhere near that. $4-$5k represents the top amount someone can receive in State + Federal support. Keep in mind, the range is from $0 to $5k and to get to $5k, you have to lose a job that would be paying more than that. Most unemployment insurance (UI) programs also have a limit on number of weeks you will be supported. 

 

To more nuanced answer to your question is - it will depend on the state/commonwealth where you are. Massachusetts has the highest rate for UI - up to $800/week or so but you have to lose a 85k/year job to get it. If you lose 50k/year job, you'll get about $500 or so. With CARES act Federal "bonus" was $600 but is now down to $300  so if you lose a $100k job, you will get about $1.1k/week or about $60k in unemployment. Arizona is bottom of the barrel when it comes to UI. I think they pay something like $250/week. With CARES act addition, you get to $550/week or about $26k/year, if you lose a $100k/year job.

[cubsfan]

Buying Tenneco @ $15.90

[Mephistopheles]

14 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

The general answer to your question is no. The average unemployed person gets nowhere near that. $4-$5k represents the top amount someone can receive in State + Federal support. Keep in mind, the range is from $0 to $5k and to get to $5k, you have to lose a job that would be paying more than that. Most unemployment insurance (UI) programs also have a limit on number of weeks you will be supported. 

 

To more nuanced answer to your question is - it will depend on the state/commonwealth where you are. Massachusetts has the highest rate for UI - up to $800/week or so but you have to lose a 85k/year job to get it. If you lose 50k/year job, you'll get about $500 or so. With CARES act Federal "bonus" was $600 but is now down to $300  so if you lose a $100k job, you will get about $1.1k/week or about $60k in unemployment. Arizona is bottom of the barrel when it comes to UI. I think they pay something like $250/week. With CARES act addition, you get to $550/week or about $26k/year, if you lose a $100k/year job.

 

Don't forget the free rent with the eviction moratorium. If you're a middle class person working hard, it may be better to get fired and live rent free with supplemental income from the government.

 

Edit: just make sure to sign a very expensive lease before doing that

Edited August 31, 2021 by Mephistopheles

[fareastwarriors]

more BRK.B

[Gregmal]

PTON $95 puts expiring 9/10

[lnofeisone]

5 hours ago, Gregmal said:

PTON $95 puts expiring 9/10

Those are the puts I hold 

[lnofeisone]

6 hours ago, Mephistopheles said:

 

Don't forget the free rent with the eviction moratorium. If you're a middle class person working hard, it may be better to get fired and live rent free with supplemental income from the government.

 

Edit: just make sure to sign a very expensive lease before doing that

The original question was how much $ was someone getting. Rent is an expense so not paying rent it would need to be recast as "money not spent." 

[gary17]

1 hour ago, lnofeisone said:

The original question was how much $ was someone getting. Rent is an expense so not paying rent it would need to be recast as "money not spent." 

 

thanks, was just trying to gauge if the whole stock market is basically gambling with free money from government.   

 

  hard to figure out when the music chair will stop.

[fareastwarriors]

1 hour ago, gary17 said:

 

thanks, was just trying to gauge if the whole stock market is basically gambling with free money from government.   

 

  hard to figure out when the music chair will stop.

 

for that, go here

 

 

[fareastwarriors]

added a bit to WFC after the news 

 

[UK]

 

 

Edited September 1, 2021 by UK

[Gregmal]

13 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

Those are the puts I hold 

Oh yea..the read has been spot on and the short term puts have worked, but part of me wishes we'd have one or two bad trading days so this can fully puke. Nasdaqs been up solidly this week and PTONs still down $7 a share. Would probably be down double if the market wasn't so strong. As such I think its also currently a suitable short term market hedge.