Casey Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 bought some BRK calls. That 5% of Apple keeps getting bigger.
Castanza Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 AFL starter - seems cheap, divy looks solid, Q1 looked pretty good This sector does make me a bit nervous right now. Premiums collection could get hammered if unemployment remains high for a long time. Anyone else look at this lately?
DooDiligence Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 AFL starter - seems cheap, divy looks solid, Q1 looked pretty good This sector does make me a bit nervous right now. Premiums collection could get hammered if unemployment remains high for a long time. Anyone else look at this lately? I like AFL a lot too. I owned it a long time ago & sold for a nice gain, then forgot about it until recently. A decade ago, they were getting nearly 80% of their pre-tax earnings from Japan. They made their bones selling supplemental cancer insurance policies in the only country to have 2 nukes dropped on it. For years, I was perplexed by the fact that they've bombarded the US with TV ads & didn't seem to be making inroads but the geographic revenue mix has started skewing towards the US market. I also like that their payouts are fixed & non-negotiable, unlike P & C & health insurers (correct me if I'm wrong here) & they do cover payouts for covid. Most premiums are made through payroll deduction so yeah, the threat to near term earnings is real. They could also experience problems with their investment portfolio in a serious deflationary environment. As per the March 2020 conference call: "we have identified approximately $1.4 billion of middle market loans, most exposed in the current environment and have stress tested $1.3 billion of transitional real estate. While this economic crisis is unprecedented and predicting the trajectory of the economy and recovery is difficult, we have taken a pretty bearish view in our credit stress test. For instance, we have assumed an extremely severe second quarter drop in economic activity of 30% to 50% with just a modest pickup through year-end; revenue declines of 30% to 80%, depending on the specific sector and company; losses on our most sensitive below investment-grade and middle-market loans of up to 20%; oil prices staying below $20 for most of the year as demand slowly recovers. Let me emphasize that the impacts to the global and U.S. economy are going to be highly volatile and very difficult to predict. We will continue to evaluate as more economic information becomes available, along with the impacts to the sectors and companies in our portfolio. Our loss analysis estimates approximately $680 million in pre-tax potential losses. This equates to approximately 100 basis points of potential losses on our total fixed maturity and loan portfolios, of which fixed maturity corporates are 72 basis points." --- Here's a very good report from 2012 that lays out every aspect of how they operate(d). https://www.aflac.com/us/en/docs/investors/fabbook2012_06222012.pdf
Castanza Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 AFL starter - seems cheap, divy looks solid, Q1 looked pretty good This sector does make me a bit nervous right now. Premiums collection could get hammered if unemployment remains high for a long time. Anyone else look at this lately? I like AFL a lot too. I owned it a long time ago & sold for a nice gain, then forgot about it until recently. A decade ago, they were getting nearly 80% of their pre-tax earnings from Japan. They made their bones selling supplemental cancer insurance policies in the only country to have 2 nukes dropped on it. For years, I was perplexed by the fact that they've bombarded the US with TV ads & didn't seem to be making inroads but the geographic revenue mix has started skewing towards the US market. I also like that their payouts are fixed & non-negotiable, unlike P & C & health insurers (correct me if I'm wrong here) & they do cover payouts for covid. Most premiums are made through payroll deduction so yeah, the threat to near term earnings is real. They could also experience problems with their investment portfolio in a serious deflationary environment. As per the March 2020 conference call: "we have identified approximately $1.4 billion of middle market loans, most exposed in the current environment and have stress tested $1.3 billion of transitional real estate. While this economic crisis is unprecedented and predicting the trajectory of the economy and recovery is difficult, we have taken a pretty bearish view in our credit stress test. For instance, we have assumed an extremely severe second quarter drop in economic activity of 30% to 50% with just a modest pickup through year-end; revenue declines of 30% to 80%, depending on the specific sector and company; losses on our most sensitive below investment-grade and middle-market loans of up to 20%; oil prices staying below $20 for most of the year as demand slowly recovers. Let me emphasize that the impacts to the global and U.S. economy are going to be highly volatile and very difficult to predict. We will continue to evaluate as more economic information becomes available, along with the impacts to the sectors and companies in our portfolio. Our loss analysis estimates approximately $680 million in pre-tax potential losses. This equates to approximately 100 basis points of potential losses on our total fixed maturity and loan portfolios, of which fixed maturity corporates are 72 basis points." --- Here's a very good report from 2012 that lays out every aspect of how they operate(d). https://www.aflac.com/us/en/docs/investors/fabbook2012_06222012.pdf Thanks for sharing your thoughts
Gregmal Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 Bought some SPAQ warrants. No reason other than I felt like gambling. Come on now RobinHooders, do your thing!
york Posted July 13, 2020 Posted July 13, 2020 ITP - Intertape Polymer Steady business... Should get back to the $17 range pretty easy from here ($13.50)
SHDL Posted July 13, 2020 Posted July 13, 2020 SDS. yup. x2 (joke intended) Probably good timing, though I’m no fan of inverse/levered ETFs.
Maple Fun Posted July 14, 2020 Posted July 14, 2020 Bought more GDC.TO today... Genesis is a land owner and home developer in Metro Calgary.. Calgary detached house price as well as the volume are bouncing back quickly.. https://www.creb.com/Housing_Statistics/Daily_Housing_Summary/?tab=2
sleepydragon Posted July 14, 2020 Posted July 14, 2020 BRK twice per week during the last four weeks. Today added to WFC (it’s now 10% lower than the CEO’s $5m purchase) Also bought back MTB, SLG
LC Posted July 14, 2020 Posted July 14, 2020 WFC and V. Getting to a self-imposed limit on WFC (currently 3.75%; would go up to 4%), so maybe one more opportunity to average down and then we let it ride.
fareastwarriors Posted July 14, 2020 Posted July 14, 2020 WFC and V. Getting to a self-imposed limit on WFC (currently 3.75%; would go up to 4%), so maybe one more opportunity to average down and then we let it ride. Why V now?
LC Posted July 14, 2020 Posted July 14, 2020 Lack of compelling investment alternatives, I would say is the largest factor.
writser Posted July 14, 2020 Posted July 14, 2020 2222.HK: I initially bought this at 20c a month or so back and then have been adding at 22-28c. Discovered accidentally when KKR bought a majority stake in one of their companies and i saw it in the paper. Just the residual 30% stake in that venture is worth more than the current market cap at that transacted value. Significant net cash plus their remaining biz which is growing well would be worth atleast twice that residual stake. I reckon NAV to be around ~50-60c. Very interesting idea. Obviously the whole company is somewhat of a shit show, it was even featured as a case study in 'Due Diligence in China: Beyond the Checklists (link). Nevertheless, it's not a fraud and the dubious founder has been arrested. The company still owns a minority stake in the business bought by KKR, worth ~800m RMB given what KKR paid for the rest. The endgame seems to be a relisting, FWIW. Then there's a lot of excess cash, and a significant, growing operating business (international lighting) with a book value of ~2000m RMB or whatever and not too much debt. Yet the market cap is only about ~500m RMB. In any sane capital market this would be trading 4x to 5x higher. I couldn't resist buying a few shares.
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