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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

Sold my PKX stake and bought more SEC.TO. I want more exposure in businesses that i can hold for the long term and short term prospects for SEC look more promising, too. Munger, Pabrai selling PKX have influenced me and its possible that their low cost advantage is eroded by the currency wars. I feel that my insight/edge into SEC is a lot better than in PKX. SEC is now a 20% position.

Posted

Not all today - but recent purchases.

 

Buys:

EGFEY - began accumulating

SAN - finished accumulating

FRFHF - doubled position in January at $500

OGZPY/LUKOY/SBRCY - have been accumulating over the last 3 months.

IBM - following Buffett/Watsa on this one, small position

Puts on the SPY @ 190 for March 2016

 

Sells:

1/3 of my position in WFM

Rolling calls against 60-100% of my FCAU position

These "sells" are simply profit taking to reduce my leverage. I was at about 115% exposure previously and want to get down below 100%. I have about another 10% to go.

 

 

Watching with potential to add:

SB/SBLK/GLBS

ATUSF

PKX

FRFHF if it stays around $500-$525

Guest notorious546
Posted

Followed Klarmen into BXE.  But let me be clear, my position is peanuts (and I've learned some lessons about following gurus before)!  But I've always wanted to understand the oil/gas industry better.  Owning something will give me further incentive to do so.

 

this one will be tough.

Posted

More bac

I think ubs analyst is obtuse. He cut price from 20 to 16 because of capital levels.

I didn't think it was worth 20 but certainly 18.

Bac will probably pass on div increase but I bet they get at least 3 billion share buyback.

Thanks ubs "analyst" for giving me the 15.70 print.

Posted

Ive been in YPF for a year, its been a wild ride, but it's dirt cheap on a NAV basis.

 

LL

 

Scared me, I thought you were buying Lumber Liquidators.

 

I would be scared to be short. one of the smartest stock pickers in the world just bought a big position.

 

I saw that, and everyone's favorite whipping boy Tilson has made a very loud short case. I don't have a position, but if I had to initiate one here it'd be short. Gross margins at all time highs, bulk of the remodeling done by the Blackstone's of the world to build the world's largest rental pool, and the business still only generates $40 MM in FCF (less than 2% FCF yield). I just don't see how you get significantly much more upside in the stock.

 

Sorry for digging this comment chain up from the grave, but 60 Minutes apparently did a piece on Lumber Liquidators confirming they have been selling flooring with levels of formaldehyde above legal limits: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/lumber-liquidators-linked-to-health-and-safety-violations/

 

I actually looked into the company but passed for this reason (although it was only a rumor at the time - but my carpenter neighbor confirmed LL sold the cheapest "wood" he had ever seen).

Posted

Ive been in YPF for a year, its been a wild ride, but it's dirt cheap on a NAV basis.

 

LL

 

Scared me, I thought you were buying Lumber Liquidators.

 

I would be scared to be short. one of the smartest stock pickers in the world just bought a big position.

 

I saw that, and everyone's favorite whipping boy Tilson has made a very loud short case. I don't have a position, but if I had to initiate one here it'd be short. Gross margins at all time highs, bulk of the remodeling done by the Blackstone's of the world to build the world's largest rental pool, and the business still only generates $40 MM in FCF (less than 2% FCF yield). I just don't see how you get significantly much more upside in the stock.

 

Sorry for digging this comment chain up from the grave, but 60 Minutes apparently did a piece on Lumber Liquidators confirming they have been selling flooring with levels of formaldehyde above legal limits: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/lumber-liquidators-linked-to-health-and-safety-violations/

 

I actually looked into the company but passed for this reason (although it was only a rumor at the time - but my carpenter neighbor confirmed LL sold the cheapest "wood" he had ever seen).

 

Thanks for reminding me of trades I should've held with conviction!

Posted

Just bought put options on LL. I mean if you watch the 60 minutes and search for lumber liquidators on carb website, you will find this is a screaming short. This situation is similar to fairfax during financial crisis when its portfolio including cds made money but the market seemed to be too lazy to reflect that.

 

From a report dated 20 Nov 2013(!) on CARB website:

 

"The Lumber Liquidators flooring which tested as unfinished HWPW failed the CARB emissions

standard tested at 0.17 ppm. This proposal would still have it non-compliant even at 0.11 ppm,

but did CARB enforce against Lumber Liquidators?

My members have incurred costs to be in compliance which our competitors can avoid. They

have and this proposal is an invitation produce and ship higher emitting products.

We found and submitted 4 cases of plywood claimed to be PS-2 and CARB certified which failed

the formaldehyde emission standard. To our knowledge no enforcement occurred either by

CARB or U.S. Customs. If the current regulation is not enforced, then allowing higher emissions,

no testing and no certification makes a mockery of the whole regulatory framework."

 

The report is attached.

 

I may even speculate further that CARB is corrupted and deliberately ignored warnings from whistleblowers.

hpva112013.pdf

Posted

Unable to short LL, I sold some calls on it the last three days creating a synthetic short. Trying not to get too greedy, but agree with tinhb that it is the biggest no-brainer short in a long time. Huge liability and token cash on hand so who will lend them money? I don't like shorting. Too easy to get squeezed. So I sold the calls a bit out of the money, to sleep better. I think even hedge funds who specialize in squeezing shorts may think twice about touching this one. Hope I don't get squeezed!!!

Posted

Bought some Fastenal and a little more Gilead yesterday.

 

 

Ross, if you don't mind sharing, what prompted you to buy FAST?  I see the valuation has come down a bit in recent quarters, but I haven't followed the business for quite some time.  Do you think the shares have undeservedly been punished?  Still at ~22x fwd EPS if I'm not mistaken.

 

Thanks!

Posted

I also established a large position in Amaya at $27 but will likely add pre-earnings report due to the strength of the US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar impacting the price more than recognition of underlying value.

 

This is the only case I know of where I fairly confident the stock will double within 1 year. And as a result I am establishing a huge position.

Posted

Bought GREK and EGFEY.  Shorted CFR, FFIN, LQ, PB and TCBI.

 

Thanks

Lance

 

I've got limit orders for EGFEY in at 0.0425. Whoever picked it up at .045 today was lucky - I'm just angry they got their order filled and not mine :/

 

 

As for the thread topic:

I sold a bunch of calls today.

For background: A few weeks back I started a P/B portfolio that will be more passive than my main one with about a quarter of my assets in it. I simply took a list of the lowest P/B stocks in the U.S. and a few ones that I can easily pick up abroad and selected the 10 that had the lowest values with the caveat that they had to have recent insider buying. This portfolio is very, very heavily energy dominated. Today, a large number of those energy names spiked double digits allowing me to sell 1 month calls with strikes at 5-10% premiums to the current price for premiums the size of 5% of the underlying notional. Seemed like a great deal so I went short a ton of 1 month calls.

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