tinhb

Thanks for sharing. I like this warning about over-detailed analyses.

Hi sculpin, thank you for your posts. I'm just curious about your return last year since your stock picks have performed very well. If it's ok with you, can you tell us about your last year return and how do you normally size your bets on cases like Dundee?

Just bought put options on LL. I mean if you watch the 60 minutes and search for lumber liquidators on carb website, you will find this is a screaming short. This situation is similar to fairfax during financial crisis when its portfolio including cds made money but the market seemed to be too lazy to reflect that. From a report dated 20 Nov 2013(!) on CARB website: "The Lumber Liquidators flooring which tested as unfinished HWPW failed the CARB emissions standard tested at 0.17 ppm. This proposal would still have it non-compliant even at 0.11 ppm, but did CARB enforce against Lumber Liquidators? My members have incurred costs to be in compliance which our competitors can avoid. They have and this proposal is an invitation produce and ship higher emitting products. We found and submitted 4 cases of plywood claimed to be PS-2 and CARB certified which failed the formaldehyde emission standard. To our knowledge no enforcement occurred either by CARB or U.S. Customs. If the current regulation is not enforced, then allowing higher emissions, no testing and no certification makes a mockery of the whole regulatory framework." The report is attached. I may even speculate further that CARB is corrupted and deliberately ignored warnings from whistleblowers. hpva112013.pdf

I'm not sure it's relevant here but I happened to buy put on FXY(Japanese yen) yesterday. I've traded in and out of this for a while but what got me into the position yesterday was tbat 5000 contracts of 85 Jan 16 was traded. This large volume somehow lowered the price. 5000 contracts = US$1 mil. Somebody frontrunning?

Just bought YHOO Jan16 $50 Call. I think the risk reward is attractive for a small position. The implied volatility is not too high. Alibaba IPO is coming soon with a valuation of US$130 bil (rumored to be a low-ball offer). Yahoo will also sell a smaller than expected stake of Alibaba.

DSWL