Viking Posted March 28 Posted March 28 (edited) The war in the Persian Gulf is old news. Time to move on to what its impacts are going to be on the global economy. I think it is pretty obvious that over the next year inflation will be ticking higher and growth will be ticking lower. Of course, the critical question is how much (inflation/slower growth)? Do we see stagflation? That will depend on how long the war goes on and how governments and financial markets respond. Bottom line, this is probably a good time for investors to brush up on stagflation. Or is your perspective that it doesn't matter - thinking about it will simply mess most investors up? Below is a very crude AI generated overview to get the discussion started. 1) What is Stagflation? Definition (precise): Stagflation is a macro regime characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of: Low or negative real economic growth Elevated inflation Deteriorating real incomes / demand From an investor’s lens, stagflation is fundamentally: A negative supply shock colliding with a demand-constrained economy This is what makes it structurally different from typical inflationary environments (which are often demand-driven and growth-positive). Key economic mechanics Cost-push inflation dominates (energy, food, inputs) Central banks face a policy trade-off (tighten vs support growth) Profit margins compress (input costs ↑ faster than pricing power) Financial assets re-rate due to: Higher discount rates (inflation) Lower earnings expectations (growth) 2) What is War-Induced Stagflation? War-induced stagflation is a specific subtype driven by geopolitical conflict. Transmission channels Energy shock Supply disruption (oil, gas) Sanctions / trade fragmentation → Immediate inflation impulse Commodity shock Food, metals, fertilizers → Broad-based cost pressure Supply chain fragmentation Re-routing, redundancy, inefficiency → Structural inflation Fiscal expansion Defense spending, subsidies → Supports nominal demand while supply is constrained Risk premium expansion Equity risk premium ↑ Credit spreads ↑ Net effect: Inflation rises while growth deteriorates → classic stagflation setup 3) Asset Class Behavior in Stagflation (A) Equities Aggregate outcome: Poor (especially in early phase) Why: Margins compress Discount rates rise Earnings visibility deteriorates Relative winners: Energy producers Commodity-linked businesses Select defensive sectors with pricing power (utilities, staples—conditionally) Relative losers: Long-duration growth (tech, high multiple) Consumer discretionary Capital-intensive cyclicals (without pricing power) (B) Bonds Aggregate outcome: Poor initially Why: Inflation erodes real returns Yields rise (especially real yields later) Nuance: Nominal bonds: worst early Inflation-linked bonds (TIPS / RRBs): relatively better Credit: deteriorates (spreads widen) (C) Commodities Best-performing asset class (early phase) Why: Direct beneficiaries of supply shock Pricing set at the margin Hierarchy: Energy (oil, gas) Industrial metals Agriculture (D) Precious Metals Mixed but generally positive Gold: hedge against: inflation geopolitical risk monetary instability Sensitive to real rates If real rates rise aggressively → headwind If financial repression dominates → tailwind (E) Real Estate Ambiguous / bifurcated Positive: inflation linkage (rents) Negative: higher interest rates, weaker demand Outcome: Early stagflation → negative (rates dominate) Later (if inflation persists, rates stabilize) → mixed recovery 4) Optimal Positioning: Beginning of War-Induced Stagflation This is the highest-alpha window—before markets fully price the regime shift. Core principle: Position for inflation first, growth deterioration second Asset Allocation (Early Phase) 1. Commodities: Overweight (core position) Direct exposure (futures / ETFs / producers) Energy bias is critical 2. Equities: Selective / defensive tilt Overweight: Energy Materials Neutral to underweight: Staples (valuation dependent) Underweight: Growth / tech Consumer discretionary 3. Bonds: Underweight duration Avoid long-duration nominal bonds Prefer: Short duration Inflation-linked bonds 4. Precious Metals: Moderate overweight Gold as: geopolitical hedge policy error hedge 5. Cash / Optionality: Elevated High optionality has value in regime transitions 6. Real Estate: Underweight initially Interest rate shock dominates early 5) What to Avoid (Early Phase) This is critical. 1. Long-duration equities High P/E, future earnings-dependent Most sensitive to rising discount rates 2. Long-duration bonds Guaranteed real return destruction 3. Rate-sensitive assets REITs (early phase) Infrastructure proxies 4. Weak balance sheets Refinancing risk increases Credit spreads widen 5. Demand-sensitive cyclicals Autos, retail, housing-linked 6) How Positioning Evolves Over Time Stagflation is not static. It evolves through phases: Phase 1: Shock (War onset / supply disruption) Characteristics: Inflation spikes Growth still appears resilient Markets underreact initially Positioning: Max overweight commodities Reduce duration aggressively Rotate out of growth equities Phase 2: Recognition Characteristics: Growth weakens visibly Margins compress Central banks tighten Positioning: Maintain commodity exposure Increase defensives (cash, quality equities) Begin accumulating: inflation-linked bonds selective high-quality equities Phase 3: Policy Response / Demand Destruction Characteristics: Recession risk rises Inflation peaks (but still elevated) Financial stress emerges Positioning shift: Reduce commodities (they peak early) Increase: high-quality bonds (duration starts to work again) defensive equities Phase 4: Stabilization / Post-Stagflation Characteristics: Inflation falls Growth stabilizes Policy eases Positioning: Re-risk: equities broadly duration Reduce: commodities gold 7) Strategic Framework (Condensed) Think in three layers: Layer 1: Inflation hedge (early) Commodities Energy equities Gold Layer 2: Survival / capital preservation (mid) Cash Quality equities Inflation-linked bonds Layer 3: Recovery positioning (late) Duration Broad equities Key Insight (Most Investors Miss This) Commodities are a trade, not a long-term hold in stagflation. They perform best early They peak when: demand destruction begins policy tightening bites By the time stagflation is widely recognized, the easy money in commodities is often already made. 9) Final Synthesis War-induced stagflation is fundamentally a sequencing problem, not just an allocation problem. Early: Inflation dominates → own real assets Middle: Growth deteriorates → protect capital Late: Policy shifts → re-risk into financial assets The highest-quality investors: Recognize the regime early Rotate before consensus Avoid static “inflation hedge” thinking Edited March 28 by Viking
Blake Hampton Posted March 28 Posted March 28 ^ Powell could probably be replaced with Warsh there ^ Also, I do not think you're an idiot. I thought it might be funny.
Blake Hampton Posted March 28 Posted March 28 See the problem I fear with the United States is I fail to see a scenario where inflation doesn't spin out of control. I don't think the system as it currently stands leaves the Federal Reserve any real options to address it. They call that fiscal dominance. I call it an increasingly braindead electorate.
Viking Posted March 28 Author Posted March 28 Stagflation in the 1970s: A Brief Investment History 1) Macro Setup: Why the 1970s Were Different The 1970s represent the canonical stagflation regime: high inflation, weak real growth, and repeated policy errors. Two defining shocks: 1973–74 Oil Shock (Arab oil embargo following the Yom Kippur War) 1979 Oil Shock (triggered by the Iranian Revolution) Oil prices increased ~4x in the first shock and doubled again in the second. These were classic negative supply shocks. Compounding factors: Collapse of Bretton Woods (end of gold convertibility in 1971) Loose monetary policy early in the decade Wage-price spirals (union strength, cost-of-living adjustments) Stop-go policy cycles (tighten → recession → ease → inflation resurges) By 1980: CPI inflation: ~13–14% Fed funds rate (under Paul Volcker ~20% Real GDP growth: volatile and weak 2) Asset Class Performance Equities (Broad Market): Poor Real Returns Nominal returns: modestly positive Real returns: negative over the decade Two major drawdowns: 1973–74 and 1979–80 Drivers: Margin compression (input costs ↑) Valuation compression (P/E multiples fell materially) Inflation distorted accounting (earnings overstated vs economic reality) Commodities: The Clear Winner Energy, metals, agriculture all surged Oil: ~3 → ~40 USD/barrel across the decade Broad commodities massively outperformed financial assets Mechanism: Direct beneficiaries of supply shocks Pricing set at the margin (inelastic demand) Gold: Exceptional Performance ~$35/oz (1971) → ~$800/oz (1980) One of the best-performing assets globally Drivers: Monetary instability (post-Bretton Woods) Negative real rates (for much of the decade) Loss of confidence in fiat regimes Bonds: Catastrophic Real Returns Long-duration bonds were destroyed in real terms Yields rose from ~6% to ~15%+ Key point: The 1970s were one of the worst bond bear markets in modern history. Real Estate: Mixed, but Generally Positive in Nominal Terms Benefited from inflation (replacement cost ↑, rents ↑) But: Financing costs surged Real returns varied widely by geography and leverage 3) What Worked vs. What Didn’t Worked (Especially Early–Mid Decade) Commodities (energy in particular) Gold / precious metals Resource equities Real assets with pricing power Did Not Work Long-duration bonds (worst asset class) Broad equities (negative real returns) Growth stocks (valuation compression) Fixed-income proxies 4) The Best Way to Navigate (With Hindsight) A. Recognize the Regime Shift Early The critical error most investors made: Treating inflation as transitory rather than structural. The winners recognized: Bretton Woods collapse = monetary regime change Oil shocks = persistent supply constraints B. Own Real Assets Early The highest-return positioning: Overweight commodities and energy Allocate to gold as monetary hedge Timing mattered: Most gains occurred before inflation peaked C. Avoid Duration Bonds were structurally mispriced for inflation “Income investing” failed in real terms D. Rotate as Policy Tightens By the late 1970s (Volcker era): Real rates turned sharply positive Commodities peaked Financial assets eventually reset The optimal transition: Reduce commodities near peak inflation Gradually add: high-quality equities fixed income (once real yields became attractive) 5) Key Lessons for Professional Investors 1. Stagflation is a sequencing problem Early phase: inflation shock → real assets dominate Late phase: policy tightening → financial assets recover 2. Inflation destroys both sides of the 60/40 portfolio Equities: margin + multiple compression Bonds: real return destruction 3. Real assets outperform—but only temporarily Commodities are front-loaded trades They peak when demand destruction begins 4. Policy credibility is the turning point The regime only ended when: Paul Volcker forced real rates sharply positive Inflation expectations were broken 6) Bottom Line The 1970s demonstrate: In a true stagflation regime, traditional financial assets fail simultaneously, and only real assets provide protection—until policy credibility is restored. The highest-quality investors: Identified the regime early Overweighted commodities and gold before consensus Avoided duration Rotated into financial assets only after real rates turned positive
Gregmal Posted March 28 Posted March 28 (edited) I think investors would be wise to avoid overreacting to flavor of the month buzz words. I think investors would be wise to realize these same forecasts were made about Ukraine, Fed tightening, and also Liberation Day. I think if it’s so obvious anyone can type this shit into an AI page and get “the playbook”, that said “playbook” isn’t how one should be positioned. I don’t know shit, though, just worrying about my business and clearing 30% annualized since the Ukraine war stagflation, Rate Hike Regime, and Liberation Day Doom thesis crowd start its attention seeking yap campaigns… Edited March 28 by Gregmal
Blake Hampton Posted March 28 Posted March 28 I think investors would be wise to stop listening to Trumpers. The difference between now and the 1970s is that the country that holds the world reserve currency is facing a fiscal crisis.
Castanza Posted March 28 Posted March 28 3 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: I think investors would be wise to stop listening to Trumpers. The difference between now and the 1970s is that the country that holds the world reserve currency is facing a fiscal crisis. Who should we be listening to? What’s their investment track record? How should we be positioning?
Gregmal Posted March 28 Posted March 28 3 minutes ago, Castanza said: Who should we be listening to? What’s their investment track record? How should we be positioning? Blakey poos kryptonite…how has your brilliance rewarded you on the investment front?
Castanza Posted March 28 Posted March 28 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Blakey poos kryptonite…how has your brilliance rewarded you on the investment front? Classic spreadsheet guy imo. Probably great at breaking down balance sheets and looking at charts or 50 year macro environments but has no nuance for business and investment decisions. Like you said he will be right eventually but the opportunity cost lost is too high to overcome. It’s like listening to a sports nerd lecture you on every baseball stat out there, but when it comes time to play they’re a liability on the field. Derek Jeter, not so great on paper when stacked against other shortstops….but there isn’t a team out there that wouldn’t have wanted him in their starting lineup. I’m an A’s fan…Billy Beane was great on paper, but it never won them any World Series… Edited March 28 by Castanza
Gregmal Posted March 28 Posted March 28 4 minutes ago, Castanza said: Classic spreadsheet guy imo. Probably great at breaking down balance sheets and looking at charts or 50 year macro environments but has no nuance for business and investment decisions. Like you said he will be right eventually but the opportunity cost lost is too high to overcome. It’s like listening to a sports nerd lecture you on every baseball stat out there, but when it comes time to play they’re a liability on the field. Derek Jeter, not so great on paper when stacked against other shortstops….but there isn’t a team out there that wouldn’t have wanted him in their starting lineup. I’m an A’s fan…Billy Beane was great on paper, but it never won them any World Series… Not everyone has what it takes to be a winner. You can still do alright for yourself never winning a World Series. The guys who just sit around offering nothing but hot takes need to consistently provide bigger and bolder hot takes just to stay relevant. Pick your side!
Viking Posted March 28 Author Posted March 28 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Gregmal said: I think investors would be wise to avoid overreacting to flavor of the month buzz words. I think investors would be wise to realize these same forecasts were made about Ukraine, Fed tightening, and also Liberation Day. I think if it’s so obvious anyone can type this shit into an AI page and get “the playbook”, that said “playbook” isn’t how one should be positioned. I don’t know shit, though, just worrying about my business and clearing 30% annualized since the Ukraine war stagflation, Rate Hike Regime, and Liberation Day Doom thesis crowd start its attention seeking yap campaigns… At the end of the day, investors need to be rational. I agree - overreacting (usually) never end well. I am generally a fan of small incremental change/adjustments over time. I love history. When I look at financial markets over the past 50 years I am amazed at a couple of things: The high level of extreme volatility How many times the dominant narrative has changed Combining these two observations - investors have been given many 'once in a lifetime' opportunities. They seem to keep popping up every couple of years. Starting a thread to discuss stagflation is not about heading for the hills. It is about making money - hopefully big money. “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.” – Warren Buffett In times like these, I find playing good defence is more important than playing good offence. An example: I am not sure why anyone would want to own long duration bonds today. Especially the low quality stuff. I love cash right now. The inflation angle is the one I find the most interesting. Are we really are in a regime change period (higher lows and higher highs) moving forward? Brian Bradstreet talked about this at past AGM's. Gundlach said the exact same thing in the video below. Of course, interest rates are the most important input to valuation. If we are in a regime change with interest rates that has profound implications for investors moving forward (just like what happened when interest rates went from 18% to below zero from 1980 to 2020). I am not trying to be chicken little - I don't think the sky is falling. Rather, the opportunity set appears to be shifting at the edges. Maybe it matters in another year or two. Maybe not. Bottom line - be inquisitive. Be open minded. Most importantly, be rational. Edited March 28 by Viking
Gregmal Posted March 28 Posted March 28 4 minutes ago, Viking said: An example: I am not sure why anyone would want to own long duration bonds today. Few reasons. its totally non consensus. That’s not fundamental, it’s just a bonus. We’ve heard the “don’t own bonds” chants in full force, since….wait for it, NOT 2022 when bonds got killed, but 2023….at best we had brief periods with much worse backdrops, where the 10 year flirted with 5….big whoop. Oil spikes are inherently restrictive in an economic sense. If it continues long enough, the economy sputters, rates dive. History tells us that is how it happens, and the current echos of “too late” resonate not as much of value now, but surely will linger when the time comes to spark the economy. Much of the stagflation thesis revolves around the Fed being stupid enough to raise rates in response to oil prices while ignoring the economy….never happening. But people still think it might because 2021/2 PTSD is living in their heads. Higher rates just mean coupons can be reinvested at better rates. It’s a cash sub with a payoff correlated to shorting the market where cash frees up at the best times.
Castanza Posted March 28 Posted March 28 8 minutes ago, Viking said: In times like these, I find playing good defence is more important than playing good offence Yeah but you’re playing defense in hopes of playing offense as an investor should. To stick with sports, you’re looking for the opening to take your shot. I’ve raised cash for this volatility and I’m sitting at close to 35% right now….but regardless of what happens politically, on the way down I will 10000% be buying stocks. If all you’re doing is playing “defense” then you’re not an investor. You’re a prepper/doomer that can read spreadsheets and sits on depreciating assets.What was Buffett doing during the 60’s and 70’s and 80’s? Deploying capital. “Buy when there is blood in the streets”
Viking Posted March 28 Author Posted March 28 2 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Few reasons. its totally non consensus. That’s not fundamental, it’s just a bonus. We’ve heard the “don’t own bonds” chants in full force, since….wait for it, NOT 2022 when bonds got killed, but 2023….at best we had brief periods with much worse backdrops, where the 10 year flirted with 5….big whoop. Oil spikes are inherently restrictive in an economic sense. If it continues long enough, the economy sputters, rates dive. History tells us that is how it happens, and the current echos of “too late” resonate not as much of value now, but surely will linger when the time comes to spark the economy. Much of the stagflation thesis revolves around the Fed being stupid enough to raise rates in response to oil prices while ignoring the economy….never happening. But people still think it might because 2021/2 PTSD is living in their heads. Higher rates just mean coupons can be reinvested at better rates. It’s a cash sub with a payoff correlated to shorting the market where cash frees up at the best times. To be clear, I have no idea how things are going to play out. You could be right. And that is what I like about investing - we all place our bets and live with the results. I hope everyone on this board does well (for us on this board it is not a zero sum game). I really appreciate the opportunity to debate. There are lots of wicked smart people with lots of valuable things to say. I learn something new every day. Board members would be smart to listen to a wide range of posters (and I say this out of respect).
Gregmal Posted March 28 Posted March 28 (edited) You can further layer in complexities and hedges to your investment on a look through basis. I own Fairfax, they’ll make me money. I own RE which is an inflation hedge. The lack of need to really do anything is not only more efficient but also tax wise, ideal to compounding. I mean I’ll use Berkshire or Fairfax as an example because that’s what most on this board look at….why would I part with these? Is the only reason, speculatively, because “stocks might be volatile”? That just seems like gambling. Edited March 28 by Gregmal
Viking Posted March 28 Author Posted March 28 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Castanza said: Yeah but you’re playing defense in hopes of playing offense as an investor should. To stick with sports, you’re looking for the opening to take your shot. I’ve raised cash for this volatility and I’m sitting at close to 35% right now….but regardless of what happens politically, on the way down I will 10000% be buying stocks. If all you’re doing is playing “defense” then you’re not an investor. You’re a prepper/doomer that can read spreadsheets and sits on depreciating assets.What was Buffett doing during the 60’s and 70’s and 80’s? Deploying capital. “Buy when there is blood in the streets” @Castanza, well said. I know I am a different duck. My long term average return (over almost 30 years) has been about 20%. One of the (many) reasons I have been able to do this is because I pay attention to macro at times. It works for me. Of course, this doesn't mean it will work for others (trying to blindly copy other investors rarely ends well). Over the years, I have been much better at the defence part. And less successful at the offence part. It remains a work in process. Bottom line, my returns have been very good - so I am not beating myself up too much. People on the board need to find an investment framework that fits how they are wired. This board provides a wonderful canvas to help us all figure things out (the more people post the better). Edited March 28 by Viking
Gregmal Posted March 28 Posted March 28 Like let's check out the Ukraine war for instance. A huge deal was made about this. The Ukraine War thread was possibly one of the longest COBF threads ever. It was branded as guaranteed inflation and with rate hikes coming, "stagflation"(which btw IMO is kind of a fake academic theory rather than any real world proven thing) was inevitable. Today...how has Ukraine impacted investments? Virtually in no way, shape or form. Unless the US government stole your Russian ADRs LMFAO!
Viking Posted March 28 Author Posted March 28 (edited) I think the Ukraine war is having a profound impact on the global economy under the hood. Europe used to get most of their energy needs from Russia. Now they get it from the US. (Do we see export controls in LNG in the US in the coming weeks?) This move just started - the war in Ukraine exposed Europe's disastrous energy policies of the past 20 years. Russia's invasion of Ukraine exposed all sorts of problems with NATO. NATO countries have been living in a fiction for the past 20 years (not taking security seriously). NATO countries (already with way too much debt) are dramatically increasing the amount they are spending on the military - this is blowing out debt levels even more (Canada is a great example). With the Ukraine war, the US weaponized the US$ (confiscated Russian $) - this has had profound impact on the US$ as a safe haven asset - and gold. The Ukraine war kicked geopolitical changes into high gear. Iran has been supplying drones to Russia. The Ukraine war gave Iran capabilities (not just the technology and mass production of the drone but the tactics in how to use them). This informed their most recent response to the US/Israeli attacks of 4 weeks ago. The Ukraine war has been changing the world in fundamental ways under the hood (economic growth, inflation etc). I could go on. But all of these things take years to manifest (matter/become clear). And of course, lots of other important things are happening at the same time. When combined with other events what has been happening becomes even more impactful. Edited March 28 by Viking
Gregmal Posted March 28 Posted March 28 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Viking said: I think the Ukraine war is having a profound impact on the global economy under the hood. Europe used to get most of their energy needs from Russia. Now they get it from the US. (Do we see export controls in LNG in the US in the coming weeks?) This move just started - the war in Ukraine exposed Europe's disastrous energy policies of the past 20 years. Russia's invasion of Ukraine exposed all sorts of problems with NATO. NATO countries have been living in a fiction for the past 20 years (not taking security seriously). NATO countries (already with way too much debt) are dramatically increasing the amount they are spending on the military - this is blowing out debt levels even more (Canada is a great example). With the Ukraine war, the US weaponized the US$ (confiscated Russian $) - this has had profound impact on the US$ as a safe haven asset - and gold. The Ukraine war kicked geopolitical changes into high gear. Iran has been supplying drones to Russia. The Ukraine war gave Iran capabilities (not just the technology and mass production of the drone but the tactics in how to use them). This informed their most recent response to the US/Israeli attacks of 4 weeks ago. The Ukraine war has been changing the world in fundamental ways under the hood (economic growth, inflation etc). I could go on. But all of these things take years to manifest (matter/become clear). And of course, lots of other important things are happening at the same time. When combined with other events what has been happening becomes even more impactful. So, sure, while a lot of this is fair post mortem stuff, the point of all of this is to make money, no? Not much of any of the above offers any sort of cheat codes you’d expect it to should one have had the proverbial Time Machine. If you went long oil or energy in the months following Ukraine, rather than fade it or go short, you got whooped. Same will likely happen here. I don’t know how you monetize via public markets NATO reckonings. Defense spending, sure, but part of that is not necessarily reflected by Ukraine as much as it is other movements taking place. So a lot of this comes back to the main flaw in a lot of this sort of micro macro trading endeavor. What’s the plan/benefit? With all the variables, timing elements, 95% being nothing burgers, etc? End of the day many things, lots subjective in terms of their quantifiable effect, let alone their ability to be effectively monetized via the market, such as the above with Ukraine, still kinda point me to an endeavor that’s basically deduced to speculating on short term volatility, and if that fails, idk? Then what? The only hindsight I have from the Ukraine wars initial talking points were that you could’ve ignored it and been fine, and if you bought a lot of the stuff that spiked immediately following it, or sold out of the market, you lost. Edited March 28 by Gregmal
Paarslaars Posted March 28 Posted March 28 My macro thesis is rather simple, the new fed chair has been given one clear mandate from Trump and that is to cut rates. Don't think oil rising is going to change that... and when rates go down, risk-on assets go up.
Spooky Posted March 28 Posted March 28 I think owning gold going into this on the bet that this looks like the 1970s is also a mistake. Gold has already run up so much the last while and you are actually seeing people dump gold, including, potentially some of these central banks that have been accumulating it.
Hoodlum Posted March 28 Posted March 28 Just now, Paarslaars said: My macro thesis is rather simple, the new fed chair has been given one clear mandate from Trump and that is to cut rates. Don't think oil rising is going to change that... and when rates go down, risk-on assets go up. Trump can only control short-term rates. Long bond yields may actually rise in tandem, if the bond market believes the rate cuts would stoke inflation further. This could actually help increase US government borrowing costs.
Parsad Posted March 28 Posted March 28 I think trying to analyze macro or even implementing it into a long-term investment strategy is probably more harmful than beneficial to your portfolio. As an investor, I don't give two shits about inflation, deflation or stagflation. Buy stuff when it's cheap, sell when it's dear, leave the brainiac stuff to those that think they are convinced they are smarter than the markets! Cheers!
Gregmal Posted March 28 Posted March 28 49 minutes ago, Parsad said: Buy stuff when it's cheap, sell when it's dear, leave the brainiac stuff to those that sell newsletters Fixed it for ya lol
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