Stagflation - Should Investors Care?

[Parsad]

4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Fixed it for ya lol

 

Pretty much!  Cheers!

[DooDiligence]

4 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

I heard Trump just said inflation isn't real, idiot:

 

 

He also said affordability is a Democratic hoax. Seems conflicted.

[Blake Hampton]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

I think trying to analyze macro or even implementing it into a long-term investment strategy is probably more harmful than beneficial to your portfolio.  As an investor, I don't give two shits about inflation, deflation or stagflation. Buy stuff when it's cheap, sell when it's dear, leave the brainiac stuff to those that think they are convinced they are smarter than the markets!  Cheers!

 

I simply disagree.

[Parsad]

15 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

I simply disagree.

 

History so far has proven that sentiment incorrect.  Cheers!

[Blake Hampton]

Just now, Parsad said:

History so far has proven that sentiment incorrect.  Cheers!

 

I would agree with this for the vast majority of modern American history. But not with all.

 

The United States used to be plagued by financial panics. Countries around the world who weren't blessed with a reserve currency like ours have faced repeated instances of both extreme inflation and economic collapse. I would argue these concepts were important to them. I think the United States today has been lulled into a state of ignorant bliss. We believe that we can simply print our way out of all our problems. Money no longer has a cost.

[Lotsofcoke]

4 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

I think investors would be wise to stop listening to Trumpers.

 

The difference between now and the 1970s is that the country that holds the world reserve currency is facing a fiscal crisis.

 

B I N G O

[Parsad]

8 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

I would agree with this for the vast majority of modern American history. But not with all.

 

The United States used to be plagued by financial panics. Countries around the world who weren't blessed with a reserve currency like ours have faced repeated instances of both extreme inflation and economic collapse. I would argue these concepts were important to them. I think the United States today has been lulled into a state of ignorant bliss. We believe that we can simply print our way out of all our problems. Money no longer has a cost.

 

People have been saying that for the last 50 years...that is one hell of a period to be afraid of the stock market.  You could also remove that risk by buying stocks in other currencies. 

 

And how do U.S. bonds protect your interests...at least U.S. stocks grow faster than inflation...the last 20 years would have been incredibly devastating to people invested solely in bonds or treasuries.  

 

Lastly, if the U.S. dollar isn't the currency of choice or collapses, do you really think other economies will be in any better shape?  Their currencies will get hammered too.  

 

By not investing in cheap stocks and selling them at dear prices for capital gains, you are actually increasing devaluation risk of your portfolio over time.  But I think this lesson will be lost on you, as you are 100% convinced that you are correct even though almost every statistic shows you are wrong.  

 

I'm not saying you should be fully invested.  Only that if you find something cheap, you shouldn't let the fear of an economic collapse deter you from buying that investment until the market revalues it closer to intrinsic value.  That's very different than being 100% invested, owning the market, or taking on unnecessary economic risk.

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

I think investors would be wise to stop listening to Trumpers.

 

The difference between now and the 1970s is that the country that holds the world reserve currency is facing a fiscal crisis.

 

I agree with the first part.  I'm confused by the second part.

 

What fiscal crisis are you referring to?  Cheers!

[Blake Hampton]

Just now, Parsad said:

People have been saying that for the last 50 years...that is one hell of a period to be afraid of the stock market.  You could also remove that risk by buying stocks in other currencies. 

 

And how do U.S. bonds protect your interests...at least U.S. stocks grow faster than inflation...the last 20 years would have been incredibly devastating to people invested solely in bonds or treasuries.  

 

Lastly, if the U.S. dollar isn't the currency of choice or collapses, do you really think other economies will be in any better shape?  Their currencies will get hammered too.  

 

By not investing in cheap stocks and selling them at dear prices for capital gains, you are actually increasing devaluation risk of your portfolio over time.  But I think this lesson will be lost on you, as you are 100% convinced that you are correct even though almost every statistic shows you are wrong.  

 

I'm not saying you should be fully invested.  Only that if you find something cheap, you shouldn't let the fear of an economic collapse deter you from buying that investment until the market revalues it closer to intrinsic value.  That's very different than being 100% invested, owning the market, or taking on unnecessary economic risk.

 

Cheers!

 

I believe our situation today is quite different than the one we've had over the last 50 years.

 

Bonds are a terrible long-term investment. No argument there.

 

Some of them might. Overall though, I think it would be a period of extreme financial turmoil all over the world.

 

We're running $2.1 trillion fiscal deficits alongside the greatest energy shock in history. I wouldn't be so certain.

 

I'm not disagreeing that business is the best place to be over time. Maybe that's where a lot of people get me wrong. There's really only four primary types of productive assets to own that exist outside of speculation: Stocks, bonds, cash, and real estate. I already told you I believe bonds are a wash, so that only leaves three. We all here know which of those three have demonstrated the best performance over time.

 

I just believe it's important to understand the environment in which you're heading into. I think it gives you the proper understanding of what it is to do. For example, different types of businesses DO NOT all perform well during a period of extreme inflation, most don't actually. Another is that there can be quite large consequences politically. Lastly, having a good amount of cash preceding a historic debt crisis may offer you generational opportunities.

[Blake Hampton]

“If you aren't thinking about owning a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes.”

― Warren Buffett

 

What do you think the world is going to look like in 10 years?

[Sweet]

I don’t know anyone who is actually good at predicting macro.  Some of the biggest and best investors in the world, their macro calls have been terrible.

[Sweet]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

“If you aren't thinking about owning a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes.”

― Warren Buffett

 

What do you think the world is going to look like in 10 years?

Now post what Buffett said about predicting macro.

 

You’re cherry picking and fudging a narrative.

[Blake Hampton]

 

[Castanza]

19 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

I just believe it's important to understand the environment in which you're heading into.

 

 

19 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Lastly, having a good amount of cash preceding a historic debt crisis may offer you generational opportunities.

This confidence reminds me of someone you criticize daily

 

Please tell us how you can forecast the “big one” and how you can call the bottom for when we should all take advantage of this “generational opportunity.” Because you’ve been on here 2-3 years now and the only assets you discuss are OXY and T-Bills. You’re unwilling to pull the trigger in minor market drawdowns so what’s your “signal” for buying during this massive fiscal debt crisis we are about to experience? 

 

 

[Blake Hampton]

6 minutes ago, Castanza said:

This confidence reminds me of someone you criticize daily

 

Please tell us how you can forecast the “big one” and how you can call the bottom for when we should all take advantage of this “generational opportunity.” Because you’ve been on here 2-3 years now and the only assets you discuss are OXY and T-Bills. You’re unwilling to pull the trigger in minor market drawdowns so what’s your “signal” for buying during this massive fiscal debt crisis we are about to experience? 

 

I will likely never be able to convince you of anything.

 

If you actually care, go read more about it.

[Castanza]

7 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

I will likely never be able to convince you of anything.

 

If you actually care, go read more about it.

LOL you’ve yet to even explain yourself once in any type of detail. So far you just sound like my barber. This is an investment forum no? If you’re going to make extraordinary once in 100 year claims then at least entertain the other board members and give us a detailed thesis…

Edited March 28 by Castanza

[Sweet]

18 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

 

Buffett has been sounding the alarm about the deficit for a longtime but he certainly not saying don’t buy stocks in the next 10 years.

[Gregmal]

Come on guys! Blakey poo is gonna need another mental health break soon if you keep at it. Remember Liberation Day was the beginning of the end. At the bottom it was declared how, “we haven’t even begun to see how bad” it was going to get. I guess we still haven’t lol 

 

And there in lies the problem with the macro porn guys. It. Never. Ends.

 

Even the guys who “called” the big ones, like the GFC, then spent the next decade calling em repeatedly….repeatedly wrong.

[Castanza]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Come on guys! Blakey poo is gonna need another mental health break soon if you keep at it. Remember Liberation Day was the beginning of the end. At the bottom it was declared how, “we haven’t even begun to see how bad” it was going to get. I guess we still haven’t lol 

 

And there in lies the problem with the macro porn guys. It. Never. Ends.

 

Even the guys who “called” the big ones, like the GFC, then spent the next decade calling em repeatedly….repeatedly wrong.

I remember a few on here post liberation day saying “Shelves will be empty in three months”

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, Castanza said:

I remember a few on here post liberation day saying “Shelves will be empty in three months”

There are some utterly epic posts from that time period. Ones that personally I’d be quite embarrassed about if I was the one making them…

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Come on guys! Blakey poo is gonna need another mental health break soon if you keep at it. Remember Liberation Day was the beginning of the end. At the bottom it was declared how, “we haven’t even begun to see how bad” it was going to get. I guess we still haven’t lol 

 

And there in lies the problem with the macro porn guys. It. Never. Ends.

 

Even the guys who “called” the big ones, like the GFC, then spent the next decade calling em repeatedly….repeatedly wrong.

 

Feel free to argue with him...but no need for the Blakey poo stuff...especially the "mental health break" biting comment!  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

13 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Feel free to argue with him...but no need for the Blakey poo stuff...especially the "mental health break" biting comment!  Cheers!

Fair enough. I just think if youre constantly manufacturing a narrative that every day is the beginning of the end...and then youre concerned its effecting your mental health...I mean....you only really have yourself to blame, no?

[Gregmal]

Kinda like these people that cant go to a Thanksgiving dinner because of Trump, or drive themselves nuts thinking "democracy is at risk"...and its like, maybe the problem...isn't Trump; maybe its you?

Edited March 29 by Gregmal

[Parsad]

10 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Fair enough. I just think if youre constantly manufacturing a narrative that every day is the beginning of the end...and then youre concerned its effecting your mental health...I mean....you only really have yourself to blame, no?

 

His money, his time, his beliefs.  We can challenge them, but has that ever really convinced any one at an extreme?  The day he is right, he'll be vindicated.  Sadly, that is what people on extremes cherry pick as the primary backing stat. 

 

The West Coast is well over due for a massive earthquake...I can do things to be prepared, but the likelihood is it won't happen in my life time!  How can any one make a convincing argument with that if you are 100% convinced the risk is real and unavoidable? 

 

The experts say it is going to happen...my belief is 100% that it will happen...Warren Buffett is worried about it...history has showed major earthquakes had devasting consequences...I need to be ready for that generational risk!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

7 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Kinda like these people that cant go to a Thanksgiving dinner because of Trump, or drive themselves nuts thinking "democracy is at risk"...and its like, maybe the problem...isn't Trump; maybe its you?

 

Hmmm...there is a Blake on the Trump side here too!  No convincing him of anything either. 

 

Greatest President in history...fuck Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelt and Reagan! 

 

Also, I can't remember if "democracy at risk" was a Biden or Trump campaign slogan.  Seems to be used by both sides quite a bit!  Cheers!