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Posted
8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

This is true for everyone, not just SaaS though. What if semiconductor chips are leapfrogged? Some of the same people  these claims have to problems paying up for memory business that for sure a re commodity like and where prices have trippled the last 6 month, but have a long long history of being on a deflationary trajectory. Or look at CAT trading at 5 x revenue because they sell some generators to AI datacenters as a filler for more durable solutions.

 

I don’t think the bubble is in software it is elsewhere.

 

Absolutely. And we all know what the cure for high prices is...

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Posted
13 hours ago, Valuebo said:

 

Absolutely. And we all know what the cure for high prices is...

IGV traded at a NTM PE of 40 in July 2025 and now trades around 20 in February 2026.  So quite a lot of froth has been taken out but there's still more to go since much the "E" is non-GAAP.  Not MSFT or ADBE, but many of the other large holding like PLTR, APP, NOW, TEAM, etc etc.

Posted

Thompson Reuters having a bounce because people realized they have their own AI products (a $650m acquisition of CaseText in 2023) 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-24/anthropic-shout-out-makes-thomson-reuters-tri-stock-the-latest-ai-winner?srnd=homepage-americas

 

Gemini summary:

---------

The Origins and Development of CoCounsel

Here is how the tool actually came together:

  • The Casetext Origins (and OpenAI): CoCounsel was originally created by a legal tech startup called Casetext. Casetext secured early access to OpenAI's GPT-4 model before it was publicly released, allowing them to build and launch CoCounsel as the world's first AI legal assistant in March 2023.

  • The Thomson Reuters Acquisition: Recognizing the power of the tool and the threat it posed to traditional legal research, Thomson Reuters acquired Casetext just a few months later, in June 2023, for $650 million.

  • Current Multi-Model Architecture: Since the acquisition, Thomson Reuters has expanded CoCounsel far beyond its original GPT-4 foundation. The platform now operates on a "model-agnostic" architecture. It utilizes frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, combining their reasoning capabilities with Thomson Reuters' own proprietary AI orchestration and massive databases of verified legal and tax content (like Westlaw and Practical Law).

Essentially, Thomson Reuters provides the domain expertise, proprietary databases, custom workflows, and fact-checking guardrails, while licensing the raw computational reasoning power of the major frontier labs.

Posted
15 hours ago, gfp said:

Essentially, Thomson Reuters provides the domain expertise, proprietary databases, custom workflows, and fact-checking guardrails, while licensing the raw computational reasoning power of the major frontier labs.

Listened to the earnings call of Wolters Kluwer this morning and it is the same. They have the AI tools, historical data and can change between models on the fly. While expanding margins and getting more features to customers without employing more people. And they trade for a P/E of 11 while growing currency neutral EPS by 9%. Pricing model just moves from seat based to usage based over time. And what becomes clearer is that without the human in the loop none of the models work in a professional environment and that is unlikely to change.

Posted
On 2/23/2026 at 4:54 PM, Valuebo said:

 

Absolutely. And we all know what the cure for high prices is...


It is interesting that the companies with fastest rising valuations are the picks and shovels companies - and their moat/advantage is speed of innovation. Having the highest quality technology/product now. It seems inevitable this moat will be broken down to a commodity. 
 

It is challenging to predict which industries will be completely torn down by AI tech over the next decade and more. I think One thing that is more certain, there will be some industries that will be completely destroyed - Blockbuster style.

 

Ive been struggling in understanding how AI tech will play out - either AI tech are competing now to be the next Google in the future - the sole winner.

 

Or the other idea - that all AI tech will be like electricity and will be commoditized. Speed of AI tech innovation will not be about code or tech innovation. Anyone will be able to achieve same results. but really just about power and chips. Seems to be heading towards the latter.. if that is the case, AI tech will be the new electricity. the biggest winners won’t be the Open AIs, but the stuff that plugs into this infrastructure of AI tech and creates the new moats.

Posted (edited)

Interesting perspective from Jensen Huang on AI pressure on software companies. He makes the case that software use may actually increase saying that AI agents will increasingly be working with humans and those agents will have the ability to use more tools. That raises the question, how will these companies adapt their pricing models? If I have an AI assistant that I want to use Salesforce or Factset, do I have to buy a separate license for "it?"

 

 

Edited by tede02
Posted

The conundrum for me is, if software is going to be free to make, and openclaw was so disruptive that it caused massive drops in SAAS company, why did openAI acqui-hire Peter Steinberger? He said in a podcast he built the thing over a weekend. Cant Sam Altman make a clone during his lunchbreak with some help from his engineers and codex?

 

it seems an open admission that AI tools are not going to be that disruptive.

Posted (edited)

Interesting https://finance.yahoo.com/m/fc6aa4bd-b43c-3bb0-89c4-1ba0768c473b/jack-dorsey’s-block-to-lay.html

 

I was wondering why Salesforce started to fall big in the after hours. 
 

Block ( formerly square) are laying off 40% of workforce, claim new intelligence and ai tools have changed things as to how to run businesses, and that most companies will end up with similar conclusion over time. 

Edited by Milu
Posted
On 2/26/2026 at 5:31 PM, Milu said:

Interesting https://finance.yahoo.com/m/fc6aa4bd-b43c-3bb0-89c4-1ba0768c473b/jack-dorsey’s-block-to-lay.html

 

I was wondering why Salesforce started to fall big in the after hours. 
 

Block ( formerly square) are laying off 40% of workforce, claim new intelligence and ai tools have changed things as to how to run businesses, and that most companies will end up with similar conclusion over time. 

It’s not likely related to AI. Block was a bloated company and they got into a bunch of money losing sideline like making bitcoin mining rigs.


The fired people there will find jobs elsewhere. I think WDAY is another business that is run with bloated employee count a d probably should do a 20 cut. This would be very bullish for the stock price.

  • 3 weeks later...
Posted

Bring it on!!!
I am just at 17% software but when this hype cycle continues by the end of the year i am 80% in software stocks.

Posted

https://www.forbes.com/sites/josipamajic/2026/03/23/openai-offers-private-equity-firms-a-175-guaranteed-return-to-win-the-enterprise-ai-race-against-anthropic/

 

So OpenAI can't raise funds cheaper than 17.5%??? Not to mention the problem with guarenteeing returns.

 

Also...silly OpenAI, don't they know AI is suppose to replace jobs?

 

https://www.engadget.com/ai/openai-reportedly-plans-to-double-its-workforce-to-8000-employees-161028377.html

Posted
2 hours ago, frommi said:

Bring it on!!!
I am just at 17% software but when this hype cycle continues by the end of the year i am 80% in software stocks.

It is your money, but I would limit any such bet to a max 40 per cent, mostly because I likelly have PTSD from disruption risk🤣

Posted
50 minutes ago, UK said:

It is your money, but I would limit any such bet to a max 40 per cent, mostly because I likelly have PTSD from disruption risk🤣

I have some risk guidelines, dont worry. Will never go above 40% in any one industry 🙂 . But its tempting. 

  • 3 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

New lows for a bunch of Software names today: Gtlb, Crm, Mndy, Wday, Now, Hubs, Adbe

 

The company said on Tuesday that it was holding back on releasing the new technology but was working with 40 companies to explore how it could prevent cyberattacks.

 

Introducing Claude Mythos: https://archive.ph/7WaeG

 

 

Edited by MungerWunger
Posted

They should speed up their IPO plans, because some day we dont buy this marketing BS anymore. Read behind the headline and it doesnt sound that scary at all anymore. 

Posted
On 10/31/2024 at 6:29 PM, John Hjorth said:

I think it's time for an old joke here :

 

image.thumb.png.daf25c868a7fcf0882ab064035a89bec.png

I'm this night reading "Danske Bank, A History of the Bank through 150 Years', released in June 2024 by Danske Bank. I have to say : It's great!

 

On 11/18/2024 at 8:39 AM, John Hjorth said:

 

On 3/27/2025 at 10:14 PM, Xerxes said:

 

 

I have no problem believing that F-35 is a superior beast on a one on one basis. But that is not the only variable when it comes for decades long commitment for the Indian Air Force. Its superiority can easily become a liability for IAF. In fact it is not even close I would think.

 

On Ukraine:

 

There are few books that are already out on the air war in Ukraine; i have not purchase them yet. But I think Putin treated his Air Force, the same way Kaiser treated his High Seas Fleet. Holding it and refusing to risk it in a massive engagement (Jutland was an exception). There is also a certain arrogance in the Russian High Command, not willing to destroy what they thought would be their just in a few weeks. Once the table turned it was way too late. 

 

The Russian achieved strategic surprise by hauling their army through Belorussia and coming from the North, but totally failed to shock and awe, simply because they thought they would just walk in, and Kiev would roll over.

 

 

On 4/18/2025 at 10:48 PM, Gregmal said:

Yup, but again, the “new COBF”….Trump Lying! ZOMG!

 

Objective view…

Gas prices…sure, credit where it’s due

Grocery? Too early to tell, probably was already happening 

Insurance…too early 

Illegal Immigration…yea that’s undeniable

 

 

5 hours ago, MungerWunger said:

New lows for a bunch of Software names today: Gtlb, Crm, Mndy, Wday, Now, Hubs, Adbe

 

The company said on Tuesday that it was holding back on releasing the new technology but was working with 40 companies to explore how it could prevent cyberattacks.

 

Introducing Claude Mythos: https://archive.ph/7WaeG

 

 

Does that Mythos thing remind you guys about when Japan was supposedly banning PS2 exports because it could be used in missile? Seems like a bit of marketing to me.

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