China macro

[Dalal.Holdings]

21 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Is the US better? I guess it depends on who is asking.

Well you can compare how U.S. allies have fared over the past century or so to how Russian/Chinese allies have fared.

 

Even Ukraine (which supposedly Trump does not like if you listen to the nutjobs) continues to get a lot of U.S. support in its fight with Russia.

 

My assessment is being a U.S. ally/partner is way better for anyone concerned about their own self-interest.

 

 

Edited March 3 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.wsj.com/world/iran-china-war-strategy-4e0132fc?mod=WSJ_home_supertopperbottom_pos_4

 

Quote

That pattern follows Beijing’s limited support for the government of Venezuela, another close partner of China’s, when the U.S. military captured President Nicolás Maduro in January. It could also presage China’s stance if the U.S. were to take action against Cuba, with which Beijing has what it calls an “ironclad friendship.”

Quote

But membership in such groups ultimately added little to Iran’s security. “It is very discouraging for anybody who believes that China was offering an alternative because there is no alternative,” said Alicia García Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist for the French bank Natixis. “China won’t be there if you need them.”

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Quote

Is the US in decline? After Iran strikes, maybe not, Chinese analysts say

The popular idea in China that American strength is waning may need a rethink, observers say

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3345445/us-decline-after-iran-strikes-maybe-not-chinese-analysts-say
 

After Venezuela and now Iran, China got the message.

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 10/18/2025 at 3:33 PM, WayWardCloud said:

 I'm a white foreigner who doesn't speak any Chinese so I'm very aware that I will always be at an informational disadvantage compared to a home buyer who has political connections and I don't like feeling like the patsy. 

 

You invest in the US, right? Where prediction markets, crypto markets, and public stocks are all being front-run by the administration? 

[elliott]

On 3/3/2026 at 10:51 PM, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

 

My assessment is being a U.S. ally/partner is way better for anyone concerned about their own self-interest.

 

 

 

The US has very few allies. Ukraine is not one. Ukraine, as the rest of Europe and many other "allies", are vassals.

 

China is too afraid to put their strenght to use to the same degree as the US because of its weak leaders.

 

The West spending years worrying about an invastion of Taiwan is a joke. Look who has started wars and invasions and coupe detats in the last few decades.

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

7 minutes ago, elliott said:

 

The US has very few allies. Ukraine is not one. Ukraine, as the rest of Europe and many other "allies", are vassals.

 

China is too afraid to put their strenght to use to the same degree as the US because of its weak leaders.

 

The West spending years worrying about an invastion of Taiwan is a joke. Look who has started wars and invasions and coupe detats in the last few decades.

 

 

 

Well when a small country like Ukraine that has little relevance to the USA gets invaded by its neighbor and the U.S. contributes an inordinate amount of funds and arms so it can defend itself, what do you call that exactly? If it's just a vassal, why has the U.S. done so much for it???

 

When Europeans refuse to fund their own defense and instead fund their own lavish welfare programs and the U.S. has to contribute to their defense for decades, what do you call that exactly? And let's not forget what the U.S. did through WW2 and throughout the Cold War for Western Europe. 

 

Even Japan and Germany which were mortal enemies of the U.S. in WW2 are now close allies. The U.S. is a pretty benevolent superpower. I don't think China nor Russia would exhibit the same benevolence to smaller allies. It's one of many reasons why an alliance/partnership with the USA has been preferred by the world to any other would-be superpower and continues to be. You can look at Syria, Venezuela or Iran to see what the alternative to U.S. partnership offers....

[WayWardCloud]

3 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

You invest in the US, right? Where prediction markets, crypto markets, and public stocks are all being front-run by the administration? 

 

A bit of whataboutism in my opinion. The American model starts with the idea of justice and leveling the playing field so the little guy has equal rights... and then yes we are at a all time high for corruption and in the age of the grifters. I agree and I wish we would ban politicians for active trading and from taking lobbies money. It is still worlds better than a totalitarian country who does not even pretend to believe in any of those concepts such as the rule of law and instead very clearly let's you know that there is a hierarchy and that the guys at the top are to control literally everything while the guys at the bottom (let alone the foreigner) are to shut up and do what they're told. We don't realize how good we have it until we lose it. 

 

With all that say I used to own some Chinese equity and I'm currently looking at Tencent again. Would probably buy some at HKD460. So it's not all black and white !

[TwoCitiesCapital]

25 minutes ago, WayWardCloud said:

 

A bit of whataboutism in my opinion. The American model starts with the idea of justice and leveling the playing field so the little guy has equal rights... and then yes we are at a all time high for corruption and in the age of the grifters. I agree and I wish we would ban politicians for active trading and from taking lobbies money. It is still worlds better than a totalitarian country who does not even pretend to believe in any of those concepts such as the rule of law and instead very clearly let's you know that there is a hierarchy and that the guys at the top are to control literally everything while the guys at the bottom (let alone the foreigner) are to shut up and do what they're told. We don't realize how good we have it until we lose it. 

 

With all that say I used to own some Chinese equity and I'm currently looking at Tencent again. Would probably buy some at HKD460. So it's not all black and white !

 

One is the illusion of a system that isn't corrupt. One has no illusion. 

 

Many of us prefer the truth rather than a lie with a veneer.

 

I invest in both, but don't believe the US is in any way the moral superior nor that China is any more or less risky as a result.

 

We literally have a government that stole Fannie Mae Freddie Mac, bailed out the banks at the expense of tax payer, is actively defending known pedophiles because they're wealthy party donors, and is now using its leverage to coerce companies  like Anthropic to do things it has opted not to do. How is this any different than what people fear out of the CCP? 

Edited March 5 by TwoCitiesCapital

[UK]

4 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

How is this any different than what people fear out of the CCP? 

I think the main difference is that the US government prioritizes the success of companies and capitalists after all (call it some spillage), whereas the CCP, while also doing this (but also having more goals, like 'common prosperity'), primarily cares about its own survival, even if it means sacrificing those same capitalists.

 

[WayWardCloud]

I agree with all the issue you are seeing but just don't reach the same conclusion that it's all the same. I still have hope we can right the boat and that we have some power left to do so. I believe trying to be good and having huge flaws is better than no even pretending for a second. Maybe I'm just naive / optimistic.

[UK]

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/hong-kong-ipo-pipeline-set-suffer-amid-beijings-scrutiny-red-chip-listings-2026-03-18/

 

The China Securities Regulatory Commission confirmed that some red-chip companies have recently received guidance to unwind their structure.

 

Is it about the VIE or something else?

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/hong-kong-ipo-pipeline-set-suffer-amid-beijings-scrutiny-red-chip-listings-2026-03-18/

 

The China Securities Regulatory Commission confirmed that some red-chip companies have recently received guidance to unwind their structure.

 

Is it about the VIE or something else?

I think it’s only indirectly about the VIE structure. Chinese companies have increasingly used secondary listings in Hongkong to get access to international capital and sometimes raise money and the Chinese government wants to crack down on that. The VIE structures was just a legal loophole to allow this for some business in sensitive sectors to do this listing in HK.

 

Anyways, this new development is hardly a good thing. The HK stock exchange isn’t exactly the greatest capital market but it’s way better than Shanghai exchange and individual foreign investor don’t have access to the latter anyways.

[Hektor]

 

Reminds me of what @Parsad has been saying for a while now!

 

 

China to America: Be our friend – or else

U.S. firms face penalties for diversifying supply chains and complying with American laws.

 

China is enacting restrictive new rules to make it exceptionally difficult for American companies not just to operate there but also to leave.

 

One says the government will investigate any company that “interrupts normal transactions” or takes what it calls “discriminatory measures.”

 

The other says that any company that helps enforce U.S. laws outside the U.S. — for example, an American bank freezing a sanctioned Chinese account — can be penalized, including having its assets in China seized.

 

Beyond that, the same U.S. bank could be sued in a Chinese court by a sanctioned company demanding compensation for its losses.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/20/china-blocks-decoupling-prevent-supply-chain-resiliency-us/

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, Hektor said:

 

Reminds me of what @Parsad has been saying for a while now!

 

 

China to America: Be our friend – or else

U.S. firms face penalties for diversifying supply chains and complying with American laws.

 

China is enacting restrictive new rules to make it exceptionally difficult for American companies not just to operate there but also to leave.

 

One says the government will investigate any company that “interrupts normal transactions” or takes what it calls “discriminatory measures.”

 

The other says that any company that helps enforce U.S. laws outside the U.S. — for example, an American bank freezing a sanctioned Chinese account — can be penalized, including having its assets in China seized.

 

Beyond that, the same U.S. bank could be sued in a Chinese court by a sanctioned company demanding compensation for its losses.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/20/china-blocks-decoupling-prevent-supply-chain-resiliency-us/

 

It literally killed PDH's business and took us down to where we were before the RTO in September 2024.  Our Chinese joint venture clinic with a Beijing Army Hospital was a cash cow...we were making $20,000-30,000K USD net a month and growing and had about $300-400K USD sitting there.  That was what was going to be used to fund our insurance business Sequant Re that we were launching over here. 

 

Then the Ghinese government cancelled the contract, shut down the clinic, and told us we could do what we want with the MRI machine, otherwise it gets junked!  No discussion, no lawyers, no recourse in local courts, nothing!  They killed off the Golden Goose!  They put a restrictive hold on the bank account so that we could use the money in China, but never get it out of the country.  We tried different ways to get it out...each person came back and said, unfortunately this is more complicated than our usual methods and was nearly impossible to get out.  If I want to fight it, I have to provide, more like surrender, my Canadian passport temporarily and go to Hong Kong to sign paperwork...I'm not fucking doing that!  Especially after what happened to the two Michaels from Canada!

 

Now we were in trouble.  Sequant Re started eating away at the capital we had raised for other ventures.  The other $6M we raised for goevisit.com, was pulled back from us because the P/E firm that was investing got scared during the pandemic and wanted more control.  Everything started falling like dominoes!  Fucking CHY-na, as Trump might put it!    I can only laugh now with severe pain in my chest and feel like my head might explode!  Cheers!

 

 

[nsx5200]

Sounds like you forgot to grease the squeaky wheel...  A well greased wheel spins much faster in the CCP system.

 

My straight-shooter friend that used to have a lot of manufacturing done in China shifted most of his manufacturing of out China already.  Now, he abhors having to physically go to China oversee the remaining operations.  These anti-business policies just signals where business/economics/trade, especially FDI, are in the Chinese government's priority list.

[Parsad]

4 minutes ago, nsx5200 said:

Sounds like you forgot to grease the squeaky wheel...  A well greased wheel spins much faster in the CCP system.

 

My straight-shooter friend that used to have a lot of manufacturing done in China shifted most of his manufacturing of out China already.  Now, he abhors having to physically go to China oversee the remaining operations.  These anti-business policies just signals where business/economics/trade, especially FDI, are in the Chinese government's priority list.

 

Yup, that may have helped.  But as a Canadian public company, that is something you just don't want to go near...remember what Buffett says about notoriety...you just don't tread anywhere near that borderline, lest your family read about it in the paper the next day!  Cheers!

[Hektor]

5 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Yup, that may have helped.  But as a Canadian public company, that is something you just don't want to go near...remember what Buffett says about notoriety...you just don't tread anywhere near that borderline, lest your family read about it in the paper the next day!  Cheers!

Lose money, but don't lose any reputation.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.ft.com/content/f4925d94-bd09-43bb-b0e6-8d066fcedf31

 

Quote

In its statement, China’s commerce ministry also said the act violated a range of WTO principles and international agreements governing intellectual property rights and subsidies.

“It will drag down the EU’s green transition process, damage fair competition in the EU market and bring new shocks to multilateral trade rules,” the statement said.

Quote

It said the EU should delete “discriminatory requirements against foreign investors, local content requirements, mandatory transfer of intellectual property rights and technology requirements, public procurement restrictive policies, and other content”.

 

The gall of the CCP is quite stunning...I thought I was reading The Onion.

 

It seems China's major export destinations are finally giving some pushback (the U.S. is far ahead of the EU in this area while the EU looks to be just getting started--very late as usual but better late than never)

[zippy1]

3 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

https://www.ft.com/content/f4925d94-bd09-43bb-b0e6-8d066fcedf31

 

 

The gall of the CCP is quite stunning...I thought I was reading The Onion.

 

It seems China's major export destinations are finally giving some pushback (the U.S. is far ahead of the EU in this area while the EU looks to be just getting started--very late as usual but better late than never)

Whatever they say you should not do, they are doing it.  That is exactly the reason why they don't want you to do it.  Cheers!

[Dalal.Holdings]

2 hours ago, zippy1 said:

Whatever they say you should not do, they are doing it.  That is exactly the reason why they don't want you to do it.  Cheers!

China is very smart. For the past few decades, they've taken so much advantage of Europe thanks to Brussels-Tards. They told them they were embracing "green" while burning loads of coal. No matter, European chemical/industrial plants shut down and moved over to China. Lots of tech transferred. Europe gets all its "green" stuff from China like solar panels, batteries, and wind mills. In exchange, European industry got decimated. That's what you get when Ursula and the Gang is in your corner "negotiating" with someone like CCP...

 

China thinks they can intimidate Ursula and the Gang into watering down this new act. I wouldn't rule out China strong arming the Brussels-Tards because they are meek and utterly incompetent and China/Russia/USA prove over and over again that they can run circles around them

[zippy1]

20 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

China is very smart. For the past few decades, they've taken so much advantage of Europe thanks to Brussels-Tards. They told them they were embracing "green" while burning loads of coal. No matter, European chemical/industrial plants shut down and moved over to China. Lots of tech transferred. Europe gets all its "green" stuff from China like solar panels, batteries, and wind mills. In exchange, European industry got decimated. That's what you get when Ursula and the Gang is in your corner "negotiating" with someone like CCP...

 

China thinks they can intimidate Ursula and the Gang into watering down this new act. I wouldn't rule out China strong arming the Brussels-Tards because they are meek and utterly incompetent and China/Russia/USA prove over and over again that they can run circles around them

Sanchez seemed to have folded?! I kind of agree with you.  

[Dalal.Holdings]

Explain China’s attack on EU rules in the context of it rejecting Meta’s AI acquisition in China…China always plays by a vastly different set of rules than what it demands of westerners. It has gotten away with it for far too long…

 

 

 

 

[frommi]

@Parsad Thx for sharing. A good reminder to limit my exposure to these kind of countries.

[rogermunibond]

China to resume exports of gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel to Asian trade partners.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/58ef4bfe-42a9-47f4-b5d3-ca2aba55f054?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Weird how everyone in China invests their capital in real estate and the CCP didn't think that maybe it'd be better if they got people more interested in their stock market