Macro thread - Why is the market up/down?

[brobro777]

Nicotine didn't tank baby

 

PM another record high haha

[Ghost]

5 hours ago, ArminvanBuyout said:

Actually though, why did everything tank today?

3rd Friday of the month...OPEX...is my guess. 

[Paarslaars]

5 hours ago, gfp said:

Ask dealraker how his insurance brokerages and berkshire stock fared - probably wasn't too rough of a day!

BRK was ok, FFH down 2%.

[rogermunibond]

Interview with Neil Dutta on macro.  Sees Fed cutting in June.  Housing slowing, payroll slowing, state/local govt spending down.  

 

 

[rogermunibond]

Atlanta GDPNow has Q1 growth at -1.5%

 

 

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

Atlanta GDPNow has Q1 growth at -1.5%

 

 

 

 

Pretty large adjustment for 2 data points ->

 

" the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent."

[rogermunibond]

Sizeable shifts in Consumer spend and net exports

 

There are only six subcomponents.  Maybe the size of net exports decline is overestimated.

Edited February 28 by rogermunibond

[rogermunibond]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-proceed-with-planned-april-oil-output-hike-sources-say-2025-03-03/

 

OPEC+ approved an April production hike - gradual reversal of the 2.2 Mbd production curtailment.  There's really no need for US domestic production to increase.

[Spooky]

Markets not too happy about the tariffs going into effect. VIX over 25. Wonder if the administration will reverse course.

[Paarslaars]

Of course, this is just setting the stage for negotiations. He does not want to be the president that is bad for the market.

[Spooky]

15 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Of course, this is just setting the stage for negotiations. He does not want to be the president that is bad for the market.

 

I hope you are right. CAD up slightly today, currency traders betting the tariffs will be temporary.

[Fly]

2 hours ago, Spooky said:

Markets not too happy about the tariffs going into effect. VIX over 25. Wonder if the administration will reverse course.

 

All part of the plan to incite a recession (firing tons of govt workers helps) and force Powell to cut rates quickly? Or is that too much tin foil in my hat?

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Fly said:

 

All part of the plan to incite a recession (firing tons of govt workers helps) and force Powell to cut rates quickly? Or is that too much tin foil in my hat?

Probably more merit to it than not 

Edited March 4 by Gregmal

[flesh]

1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

Probably more merit to it than not 

Trump will control the fed. He can adjust tariffs to induce fed changes in rates. Get bargains to some degree in the meantime. 10t govt debt rolls over this year iirc. Some tariffs stick to some degree for strategic reasons some adjust downwards over time. Increases o shoring if critical infrastructure.. 3% of 10t is 300b a year saved pays for tax cuts ish .. Americans not poorerish after tax.. 

 

50 yr bonds at 3% then begin pivoting? 
 

Thinking this for a month or so.. coming together. 

[rogermunibond]

the 30 year yield is not going sub 3% without a huge economic shock  

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

the 30 year yield is not going sub 3% without a huge economic shock  

Under 3 might never happen again. Would require like an 1.1-1.3% 10 year. Under 5.5 gets things done. 

[rogermunibond]

https://www.ft.com/content/cd33d571-f558-4a89-83fb-2ffa271ea2df

 

US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick has said that all goods compliant with the sweeping 2020 trade deal with Canada and Mexico will probably be granted a one-month reprieve from tariffs, in a major expansion of a planned carve-out for car imports.

The policy shift comes a day after US President Donald Trump said that carmakers compliant with United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement would be granted a one-month reprieve from the 25 per cent tariffs his administration imposed on America’s two biggest trading partners earlier this week.
 

[rogermunibond]

Folks this is a non-political board so let's keep the discussion civil.

 

WSJ board hates tariffs as everyone knows.  IIRC there is a bill being introduced to challenge the "State of emergency"

 

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-emergency-power-ieepa-trade-mexico-canada-33e2739a

Edited Friday at 01:51 PM by rogermunibond

[rogermunibond]

Pay attention to what Bessent says.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/treasury-secretary-bessent-says-economy-could-be-starting-to-roll-a-little-bit.html

 

PS doesn't he look a bit like Homelander from the Boys.  freaky

[rogermunibond]

Bessent wants commercial banks/private credit to be the monetary transmission mechanism and not the Federal govt.  No wonder Jamie Dimon loves him.

 

If Bessent's low growth (adjustment period) takes too long or causes a recession, then he will be axed.  Trump doesn't have the patience for a long 18-24 month adjustment.

 

https://singjupost.com/larry-kudlow-interviews-scott-bessent-at-the-economic-club-of-new-york/

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, rogermunibond said:

Pay attention to what Bessent says.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/treasury-secretary-bessent-says-economy-could-be-starting-to-roll-a-little-bit.html

 

PS doesn't he look a bit like Homelander from the Boys.  freaky

Yes, indeed this worth watching. He  literally says that the shit is starting to hit the fan and there is no Trump put.

[Xerxes]

Full interview 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Bessent can’t do much. He is just the glorified clerk balancing the check book for his boss.

Edited Friday at 06:01 PM by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Bessent can’t do much. He is just the glorified clerk balancing the check book for his boss.

for sure, he has the uncomfortable job explaining the ying and yang. 
 

but the guy has good credentials. They could have chosen a full throttle populist like Pete H. (Current head of pentagon) to lead treasury. 

[rogermunibond]

Bessent worked for Druckenmiller and Soros.  He's no dummy.  But he works for someone who Druckenmiller called a "blowhard" and couldn't vote for.