Fairfax 2025

[Junior R]

same pattern today Anonymous selling

[Janklp]

5 hours ago, djokovic1 said:

@janklp Welcome!

 

Im curious, having looked at these companies, do you see Markel doing something better than Fairfax in aggregate or in some areas?

Thanks! No not really to be honest. What I like in Markel is that their insurance business has the potential to double in underwriting income because it has done so poorly in recent years. But apart from that, I like Fairfax better on most other aspects. 
 

There is not tax reason behind it by the way. The Dutch system works different than in the US. We pay taxes on amounts invested and not on profit. 

[value_hunter]

26 minutes ago, Junior R said:

same pattern today Anonymous selling

Let's see when Anonymous buying whether they will push up price quickly. If so, apparently someone is manipulating the market.

[Munger_Disciple]

38 minutes ago, Junior R said:

same pattern today Anonymous selling

 

I wonder if the selling is coming from the counter parties to TRS.

[gfp]

1 minute ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

I wonder if the selling is coming from the counter parties to TRS.

 

I doubt it - there has been no indication that Fairfax in interested in changing their TRS position and the counterparties have long since hedged their exposure

[Masterofnone]

Jeesh. If you know what you own, don't sweat the daily quote. Look out at the ocean and you'll see riffles, chop, waves and tides. Some factions trade each of these movements. The price is going down because there are more sellers than buyers.

[Munger_Disciple]

6 minutes ago, Masterofnone said:

The price is going down because there are more sellers than buyers.

Actually for every share sold by a seller, there is a buyer. 

I am a LT owner but it's fun to speculate why the stock is down given a great Q3 earnings report.  

Edited November 10, 2025 by Munger_Disciple

[Hoodlum]

I believe today is also the last day of black our period for Fairfax.   While they were likely buying during blackout, we don't know what instructions were provided to their broker.  Fairfax may become more aggressive with buybacks starting tomorrow.

[Parsad]

14 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Actually for every share sold by a seller, there is a buyer. 

I am a LT owner but it's fun to speculate why the stock is down given a great Q3 earnings report.  

 

You find it fun to speculate why the stock is down? 

 

I'm the opposite.  I find it fun knowing it will be 1/3rd more next year at this same time...if not sooner! 

 

Cheers! 

[value_hunter]

6 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

You find it fun to speculate why the stock is down? 

 

I'm the opposite.  I find it fun knowing it will be 1/3rd more next year at this same time...if not sooner! 

 

Cheers! 

Will you add at this price then?

[value_hunter]

1 hour ago, value_hunter said:

Let's see when Anonymous buying whether they will push up price quickly. If so, apparently someone is manipulating the market.

 

 

Look. Anonymous start buying now.

[Parsad]

6 minutes ago, value_hunter said:

Will you add at this price then?

 

I had some cash come in and I did buy some...would prefer if it was even cheaper...but it is in nibble territory now.  Cheers!

[Munger_Disciple]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

You find it fun to speculate why the stock is down? 

 

Perhaps "interesting" is a better choice of adjective. I am with you about LT; though I have only been an FFH shareholder for about 4 years, I had long been a BRK shareholder (25 years & counting). 

Edited November 10, 2025 by Munger_Disciple

[Junior R]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

You find it fun to speculate why the stock is down? 

 

I'm the opposite.  I find it fun knowing it will be 1/3rd more next year at this same time...if not sooner! 

 

Cheers! 

another good thing is as business owners of the company it can buy back and increase our ownership at these prices vs this being at all time highs

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Actually for every share sold by a seller, there is a buyer. 

I am a LT owner but it's fun to speculate why the stock is down given a great Q3 earnings report. 

 

 

Not if price remains static. The price is what moves to balance the sellers/buyers. So it isn't incorrect to characterize more sellers than buyers if the price is dropping - it's dropping to incentivize a buyer to step in for an active seller so it is balanced.  

Edited November 10, 2025 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Munger_Disciple]

4 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

 

Not if price remains static. The price is what moves to balance the sellers/buyers. So it isn't incorrect to characterize more sellers than buyers if the price is dropping - it's dropping to incentivize a buyer to step in for an active seller so it is balanced.  

 

You are referring to "potential" buyer interest not being the same as the number of sellers actively trying to sell.

 

But I am looking at completed trades, in which the number of shares sold must equal the number of shares bought, whatever the clearing price might be. 

[Parsad]

Buffett's final letter (or Annual Thanksgiving Letter which is more optimistic) came out today.  Many decades of his wisdom!

 

Be grateful that we have 20-30 more years to garner what we can from Prem...there aren't that many of these guys!

 

Thank you to Warren and Prem!

 

Cheers!

[Crip1]

1 hour ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

Perhaps "interesting" is a better choice of adjective. I am with you about LT; though I have only been an FFH shareholder for about 4 years, I had long been a BRK shareholder (25 years & counting). 

I concur with “interesting”, maybe even “fascinating”, but definitely not “concerned/worried”. Again, similar to you, considering the objectively very good earnings report, the price action over the past two days does not make sense. Adding to the mystery is that that MKL (which I’ve also owned for over 25 years) is up more than 6% over the past week while FFH is down 1.5% despite the very good earnings report. It does not add up.

 

Fully acknowledged, the effective argument can be made that, even if I could figure this out, it is debatable on whether or not one would benefit from figuring it out. But it does not make sense, and it would be good to understand why…especially seeing MKL hitting new highs.

 

Final interesting aspect is that, both today and Friday, the morning price is notably lower than the afternoon price. 

 

-Crip  
 

[Munger_Disciple]

23 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

I concur with “interesting”, maybe even “fascinating”, but definitely not “concerned/worried”. Again, similar to you, considering the objectively very good earnings report, the price action over the past two days does not make sense. Adding to the mystery is that that MKL (which I’ve also owned for over 25 years) is up more than 6% over the past week while FFH is down 1.5% despite the very good earnings report. It does not add up.

 

Fully acknowledged, the effective argument can be made that, even if I could figure this out, it is debatable on whether or not one would benefit from figuring it out. But it does not make sense, and it would be good to understand why…especially seeing MKL hitting new highs.

 

Final interesting aspect is that, both today and Friday, the morning price is notably lower than the afternoon price. 

 

-Crip  
 

 

+1

[73 Reds]

There isn't much left for him to say that he hasn't already said.  Buffett provided both fish and fishing poles to a lot of us for most of his life.  Regrettably the starch seemed to go out of him when Charlie died.  More than anything I think that precipitated him stepping down.

Edited November 10, 2025 by 73 Reds
words

[Hoodlum]

I always find it interesting when Analysts lower their targets based on current stock price, rather than fundamentals.

 

These were posted today although may have been out on Friday, and likely accounted for the selling since the Q3 results were released.  

 

I am sure we will see this reversed in short order.

 

Raymond James lowered its target to $2,900.00 from $3,050.00.

BMO Capital Markets lowered its target to $2,600.00 from $2,700.00.

Edited November 10, 2025 by Hoodlum

[djokovic1]

In the short term, the stock price movement can deviate quite a bit from fundamental reporting as we see with Fairfax over the last two quarters. Over the long term, what matters is the sustainability of the earnings power and growing earnings power through compounding, which Prem and Fairfax have more than shown their ability to execute on.

It is a matter of time for the stock price to catch up with the fundamentals. It's just impossible to know when.

The thing that I find surprising is that it seems in the short term the Fairfax stock is driven in part by the analyst reports which I find bemusing, given the poor quality in aggregate. I.e largely ignoring the compounding effect of their earnings over time  and largely ignoring the gains on public equities that will be realised over time.

[glider3834]

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

Buffett's final letter (or Annual Thanksgiving Letter which is more optimistic) came out today.  Many decades of his wisdom!

 

Be grateful that we have 20-30 more years to garner what we can from Prem...there aren't that many of these guys!

 

Thank you to Warren and Prem!

 

Cheers!

+1

[hasilp89]

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

Buffett's final letter (or Annual Thanksgiving Letter which is more optimistic) came out today.  Many decades of his wisdom!

 

Be grateful that we have 20-30 more years to garner what we can from Prem...there aren't that many of these guys!

 

Thank you to Warren and Prem!

 

Cheers!

I especially liked the part about living by the golden rule.

 

i also like that Prem made a point to talk about the same thing at the 24 annual meeting. I believe he said they put up a golden rule poster at all their subsidiary offices.

 

the culture runs deep.

[Viking]

My read is we are at the end of the Disney phase with Fairfax. Let’s face it, the past 5 years have been wonderful. That is not to say the next couple of years will not be very good for the company and shareholders - I think they will. My point is more that Fairfax will likely trade more like a normal stock moving forward (experiencing lots of volatility).

And WE KNOW analysts are not very good at analyzing Fairfax (especially the investment management part of the business). We are getting proof of this with many of the reports that are coming out on Q3 earnings. With the hard market in P/C insurance slowing, the investment management part of Fairfax’s business is going to become an even more important part of the Fairfax story in the coming years (that is where most of the growth will come from). So I expect the disconnect between Fairfax’s improving fundamentals and analyst commentary to widen (get worse). In the near term, that will likely not be constructive for the share price. 
 

Fairfax’s story has been slowly playing out over the past 5 years. I think we are at the beginning the next chapter of this incredible book. Interestingly, I also think a large portion of the chapter has already been written by Fairfax (they have already done the work under the hood - we just don’t see it yet). It has two components:

• A high quality P/C insurance business.
• And a rapidly growing, high quality investment management business (driving higher share of profit of associates, much higher non-insurance consolidated companies and higher investment gains).

Investors and analysts just don’t recognize it yet. But as it becomes more obvious (shows up in historical results) I am confident that they will discover it too (like what has been happening over the past 5 years).
 

As we all know, what matters over the long term for any company is earnings per share. As Fairfax continues to deliver on the earnings front, the stock price will respond accordingly. 

Edited November 11, 2025 by Viking