Fairfax 2025

[gfp]

Just now, Txvestor said:

If they didn't/couldn't do so with Blackberry during the meme stock craze(which hich actually lasted more like a couple of weeks) then there's next to no chance here.

heck I got out of a residual Blackberry position for a tiny profit at around $18, it eventually topped out around 30. But position size is definitely a hindrance in such situations. 

 

Their excuse during that "opportunity" was that they were insiders and blacked out.  I think a few Fairfax employees actually sold their personal shares?  Don't remember exactly.  Prem later left the board.

[Txvestor]

8 hours ago, petec said:

Yes, me. Struck me as a very natural thing to have in-house. Growing asset-light fee stream backed by increasingly mature/realisable real estate. I think the NAVPS is $18 or more. Very happy owner of both today. Just wondering whether to sell my KW or hold. I could easily see the board rejecting the offer and FFH bumping it a little.

True that happened with Poseidon, but FFH is also fairly priced now, so could swap out of KW and into FFH. No telling where these relative prices would be at deal close. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

59 minutes ago, Txvestor said:

True that happened with Poseidon, but FFH is also fairly priced now, so could swap out of KW and into FFH. No telling where these relative prices would be at deal close. 

How do you determine FFH is fairly priced?

[dartmonkey]

19 hours ago, Junior R said:

I had feeling this was going happen ...was going buy KW but let it slip...ultimately good value 

I bought some a few months ago piggy-backing on FFH and Watsa’s admiration of the company and partly because a FFH take over seemed likely, but sold quickly when I realized the outrageous level of executive pay.

 

So I really like this idea, giving Fairfax the opportunity to find higher fixed income returns and, presumably, correcting the pay problem. 

[villainx]

10 minutes ago, dartmonkey said:

sold quickly when I realized the outrageous level of executive pay.

 

How outrageous?  Like a lot of stock based compensation outrageous?

 

The CEO is part of buyout, presumably he approved of the compensation levels ...

 

[Viking]

Fairfax Quarterly Earnings Preview

 

2025 is shaping up to be Fairfax’s best year ever in terms of earnings per share and increase in economic value per share. Outstanding. The company has never been better positioned. And the stock is selling off aggressively. And I love it. Mr Market is one amazing dude (the gift that keeps on giving).  

 

Below is a primer on a few of the things i will be watching for when Fairfax reports Q3 earnings.

 

I think it will be another good quarter - my guess is EPS will be $45 to $50/share. Plus another $10/share (after tax) from items not captured in EPS. So an increase in economic value of around $55 to $60/share (conservatively measured).

• Earnings release - Thursday November 6th (about 5PM EST?)
• Conference call - Friday Nov 7th at 8:30 EST.
• https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-announces-conference-call-10-24-2025/

Anything missing from my list? Please chime in with your thoughts.

 

1.) P/C Insurance

• What is growth in net premiums written? (In Q2, 2025, NPW grew 4.8%)
• What is CR? (93.9% in Q3 2024)
• What is level of favourable reserve development? (Q2 2025 was $163 million or 2.5% CR points)
• What is the 9 month CR? (Was 93.8% in 2024)

Of all the things that Fairfax will report, I am most looking forward to seeing where underwriting income (CR) comes in. My thesis is Fairfax’s P/C insurance business is higher quality than most investors/analysts believe. And yes, results will have some quarterly volatility. We are more interested in the general trend (than any one number). In short, my view is the quality of Fairfax’s P/C insurance business is not built into the stock price. I love getting something that is valuable for free.

 

2.) Interest and dividend income

• How does it compare to Q2? (Was $666 million in Q2 2025, up significantly from $606.5 million in Q1 2025)
• What is average yield of fixed income portfolio? (Was 5.1% in Q2 2025)
• What is average duration? (Was 2.4 in Q2 2025)

Interest and dividend income saw a significant increase in Q2 2025 (from the trend). Do we stick around the higher number? Or do we give a little back?

 

3.) What is share of profit of associates?

• Eurobank?
• Poseidon?

Do the two big boys continue to deliver? Peak Achievement will be a small headwind (it is now a consolidated holding).

 

4.) Non-insurance consolidated holdings? (Was $120 million in Q2, 2025)

 

Over the past  couple of years Fairfax has been aggressively growing the size of this bucket of holdings. But it has been very slow to show up in reported earnings. When Fairfax reports results for this bucket of holdings (and they disappoint), I feel like Charlie Brown getting the football pulled away by Lucy before it can be kicked.

 

But I think things might have changed. In Q2, non-insurance consolidated holdings delivered $120 million. Is this a sign this bucket has turned higher? Results in the coming quarters will tell the tale.

 

This is important because non-insurance consolidated holdings is Fairfax’s 5th income stream. It is also the smallest. But if $120 million/quarter can be used as a run rate, that would put it at close to $500 million for the year. Not a small number.

 

For all those investors wondering where the growth will come from at Fairfax in the coming years (with P/C insurance slowing)... well this bucket is one of a couple of examples. 

 

This growing income stream is not on investors/analysts radar today. Therefore it is not built into the stock’s price. More free stuff… I love it!

 

 

5.) Investment gains (realized and unrealized)?

• Equities? (How close is my $337 million estimate for mark to market holdings?)
• My estimate does not include Digit or IIFL Finance (both will be small headwinds in Q3).
• The sale of Praktiker (Greece) closed in Q3. What is the size of the realized gain?
• Fixed income? (Bond yields were a little lower so this will be a modest tailwind.)

Bottom line, 2025 is shaping up to be a banner year for investment gains at Fairfax.

 

Rough estimate of change in value of equity portfolio in Q3

 

 

Change in US Treasury rates in Q3

 

 

6.) IFRS 17 impact of change in interest rates

 

I always struggle with this bucket. A growing insurance business should be a small tailwind. And lower interest rates should be a small headwind.

 

7.) Tax rate?

• Guidance for year? (Given size of investment gains, I am using a low rate of 21% in my earnings model for FY2025)
• Is a normalized rate still 23%ish?

8.) Share buybacks (effective shares outstanding = 21.57 million at June 30, 2025)

• It appears Fairfax bought back about 285,000 shares in Q3 at about $1,700/share.
• What is plan for share buybacks moving forward?

9.) Diluted earnings per share? 

• My back of the napkin number is US$45 to $50/share.

10.) Book value per share? ($1,158 at June 30, 2025)

• What was impact of slightly stronger US$? Modest headwind to BVPS?

11.) Excess of FV over CV for associate and consolidated holdings?

• This was $2.38 billion at June 30, 2025 ($100/FFH diluted share pre-tax), up from $1.48 billion at Dec 31, 2024.
• This should be up modestly in Q3 to perhaps $2.5 or $2.6 billion.
• That would put the increase in 9 months at about $1 billion ($42/FFH diluted share pre-tax)

A source of significant future earnings for Fairfax: Excess of FV over CV has been growing like a weed over the past 5 years. This is not surprising - the quality of Fairfax’s equity portfolio is much higher quality. The value creation in this bucket will b3 a source of future earnings for Fairfax. It’s like Fairfax has given investors a crystal ball to help them more accurately estimate future results. Except most investors/analysts are not bothering to use it. As a result they are constantly underestimating the performance of the company. It is bizarre. But true. 
 

The interesting thing is this is not the only example of where significant ‘hidden value’ is residing at Fairfax. Yes, more free stuff…

 

PS: Knowingly ignoring important facts is not being conservative. It is bad analysis. Bad analysis leads to better understanding, decision making and results? Of course it doesn’t. 

 

Economic EPS: sum of reported EPS + increase in excess of FV over CV + increase on other items.

• My guess is economic EPS in Q3 will come in around $55 to $60/FFH diluted share.

 

12.) Miscellaneous items:

• Size of investment portfolio? ($65.2 billion at March 31, 2025)
• Any adverse reserve development in runoff?
• Any change to FFH-TRS position size?

13.) There has been a lot going on at Recipe in 2025.

1. Takeout of minority partner in Q1.
2. Purchase of Olive Garden Canada in Q3 (rights and restaurants).
3. Takeout of Keg Royalties Income Fund in Q3.
4. Spinout of Keg from Recipe later in Q3; partial sale of Keg to Richard Jaffray.

• How much of Keg was sold? Price?
• What is carrying value for Keg?
• What is new carrying value for Recipe?

Recipe is a great example of the benefits of taking a company private. Fairfax and Recipe have been busy the past 3 years improving the business. My guess is their efforts have made the company much more valuable. But much of the improvement is not showing up in how it is being valued today. My guess is Recipe is a great example of a company where there is a large (and growing) amount of hidden value. Welcome to new Fairfax. Yes, more free stuff (for long term shareholders). 

 

14.) Sale of Eurolife’s life insurance business

• Anticipated to close in Q1 2026.
• Will the sale result in a realized investment gain? If so, about how much? (It is speculated the gain might be as high as $300 million.)

Among other things, this is likely a good example of hidden value being surfaced by Fairfax (that was not being captured in the excess of FV over CV bucket). We will see if this is true when we get more details on the transaction.

 

15.) Recently announced take private of Kennedy Wilson at $10.25/share

• What is the strategic rationale for this purchase?
  • Simple investment? Or something else? Or some combination?
• Will Fairfax use partners?

At a minimum, this looks like a good example of Fairfax being opportunistic (buying an asset at the bottom of the cycle). But I suspect there is much more to this transaction than 'buy low'.  

 

16.) Capital allocation:

• An update to the priorities moving forward?
• After ‘maintain a strong financial position’ what is the next priority?
  • Buybacks?
• Buying back the minority interest at Allied World - is there a date this has to be completed by? What is the estimated cost? How is the cost calculated (how does the call option feature work)?

Edited November 5, 2025 by Viking

[dartmonkey]

50 minutes ago, villainx said:

 

How outrageous?  Like a lot of stock based compensation outrageous?

 

The CEO is part of buyout, presumably he approved of the compensation levels ...

 

I can't remember the details but they granted 4.8 million,  3.4 million and 2.8 million shares of performance based restricted stock units, during the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022. Share counts are pretty steady, because they repurchase a lot of stock, and I figured this is why they are not profitable in most years, most of what could be profits being expensed on compensation, and a lot of that to the top execs. They do well on their lending before exec compensation, and I presume this is why Fairfax is involved, but not so well for shareholders. I could be wrong, maybe I panicked too soon and I don't have all the numbers iin front of me to prove it, but that was my back of the envelope impression, maybe someone else could confirm or reassure us if this is not the case.

 

Yes, the CEO is part of the financing on the takeover, but maybe he will now start behaving like an owner, not an employee getting rich at the expense of the company, and I presume FFH wouldn't be making this deal if they didn't have a plan to make the compensation make sense for them. 

[dartmonkey]

McMorrow owns about 25m of the company's 138m shares, a bit over 18% of the company. He paid himself $16m last year, $14m the year before. Total revenues $532m, so his pay represents over 3% of revenues. Other execs were the (now ex-) president Mary Ricks, at $11m, current president Windisch at ~$7m, general counsel In Ku Lee at $5m, and CFO Justin Enbody at $4m. Total for these top 5 was $44m, while the company had EBITDA of $216m. Seems excessive for a company with a market cap of about $1b yesterday ($1.3b today).

[KFS]

8 hours ago, petec said:

Edit: Prem, if you’re reading this, please do Ensign next. The cash flow is obscene. 

+1.  I often feel like I’m the only person still following this one.  Glad to hear I’m not alone.   

[Hoodlum]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

Fairfax Quarterly Earnings Preview

 

2025 is shaping up to be Fairfax’s best year ever in terms of earnings per share and increase in economic value per share. Outstanding. The company has never been better positioned. And the stock is selling off aggressively. And I love it. Mr Market is one amazing dude (the gift that keeps on giving).  

 

Below is a primer on a few of the things i will be watching for when Fairfax reports Q3 earnings.

 

I think it will be another good quarter - my guess is EPS will be $45 to $50/share. Plus another $10/share (after tax) from items not captured in EPS. So an increase in economic value of around $55 to $60/share (conservatively measured).

• Earnings release - Thursday November 6th (about 5PM EST?)
• Conference call - Friday Nov 7th at 8:30 EST.
• https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-announces-conference-call-10-24-2025/

Anything missing from my list? Please chime in with your thoughts.

 

1.) P/C Insurance

• What is growth in net premiums written? (In Q2, 2025, NPW grew 4.8%)
• What is CR? (93.9% in Q3 2024)
• What is level of favourable reserve development? (Q2 2025 was $163 million or 2.5% CR points)
• What is the 9 month CR? (Was 93.8% in 2024)

Of all the things that Fairfax will report, I am most looking forward to seeing where underwriting income (CR) comes in. My thesis is Fairfax’s P/C insurance business is higher quality than most investors/analysts believe. And yes, results will have some quarterly volatility. We are more interested in the general trend (than any one number). In short, my view is the quality of Fairfax’s P/C insurance business is not built into the stock price. I love getting something that is valuable for free.

 

2.) Interest and dividend income

• How does it compare to Q2? (Was $666 million in Q2 2025, up significantly from $606.5 million in Q1 2025)
• What is average yield of fixed income portfolio? (Was 5.1% in Q2 2025)
• What is average duration? (Was 2.4 in Q2 2025)

Interest and dividend income saw a significant increase in Q2 2025 (from the trend). Do we stick around the higher number? Or do we give a little back?

 

3.) What is share of profit of associates?

• Eurobank?
• Poseidon?

Do the two big boys continue to deliver? Peak Achievement will be a small headwind (it is now a consolidated holding).

 

4.) Non-insurance consolidated holdings? (Was $120 million in Q2, 2025)

 

Over the past  couple of years Fairfax has been aggressively growing the size of this bucket of holdings. But it has been very slow to show up in reported earnings. When Fairfax reports results for this bucket of holdings (and they disappoint), I feel like Charlie Brown getting the football pulled away by Lucy before it can be kicked.

 

But I think things might have changed. In Q2, non-insurance consolidated holdings delivered $120 million. Is this a sign this bucket has turned higher? Results in the coming quarters will tell the tale.

 

This is important because non-insurance consolidated holdings is Fairfax’s 5th income stream. It is also the smallest. But if $120 million/quarter can be used as a run rate, that would put it at close to $500 million for the year. Not a small number.

 

For all those investors wondering where the growth will come from at Fairfax in the coming years (with P/C insurance slowing)... well this bucket is one of a couple of examples. 

 

This growing income stream is not on investors/analysts radar today. Therefore it is not built into the stock’s price. More free stuff… I love it!

 

 

5.) Investment gains (realized and unrealized)?

• Equities? (How close is my $337 million estimate for mark to market holdings?)
• My estimate does not include Digit or IIFL Finance (both will be small headwinds in Q3).
• The sale of Praktiker (Greece) closed in Q3. What is the size of the realized gain?
• Fixed income? (Bond yields were a little lower so this will be a modest tailwind.)

Bottom line, 2025 is shaping up to be a banner year for investment gains at Fairfax.

 

Rough estimate of change in value of equity portfolio in Q3

 

 

Change in US Treasury rates in Q3

 

 

6.) IFRS 17 impact of change in interest rates

 

I always struggle with this bucket. A growing insurance business should be a small tailwind. And lower interest rates should be a small headwind.

 

7.) Tax rate?

• Guidance for year? (Given size of investment gains, I am using a low rate of 21% in my earnings model for FY2025)
• Is a normalized rate still 23%ish?

8.) Share buybacks (effective shares outstanding = 21.57 million at June 30, 2025)

• It appears Fairfax bought back about 285,000 shares in Q3 at about $1,700/share.
• What is plan for share buybacks moving forward?

9.) Diluted earnings per share? 

• My back of the napkin number is US$45 to $50/share.

10.) Book value per share? ($1,158 at June 30, 2025)

• What was impact of slightly stronger US$? Modest headwind to BVPS?

11.) Excess of FV over CV for associate and consolidated holdings?

• This was $2.38 billion at June 30, 2025 ($100/FFH diluted share pre-tax), up from $1.48 billion at Dec 31, 2024.
• This should be up modestly in Q3 to perhaps $2.5 or $2.6 billion.
• That would put the increase in 9 months at about $1 billion ($42/FFH diluted share pre-tax)

A source of significant future earnings for Fairfax: Excess of FV over CV has been growing like a weed over the past 5 years. This is not surprising - the quality of Fairfax’s equity portfolio is much higher quality. The value creation in this bucket will b3 a source of future earnings for Fairfax. It’s like Fairfax has given investors a crystal ball to help them more accurately estimate future results. Except most investors/analysts are not bothering to use it. As a result they are constantly underestimating the performance of the company. It is bizarre. But true. 
 

The interesting thing is this is not the only example of where significant ‘hidden value’ is residing at Fairfax. Yes, more free stuff…

 

PS: Knowingly ignoring important facts is not being conservative. It is bad analysis. Bad analysis leads to better understanding, decision making and results? Of course it doesn’t. 

 

Economic EPS: sum of reported EPS + increase in excess of FV over CV + increase on other items.

• My guess is economic EPS in Q3 will come in around $55 to $60/FFH diluted share.

 

12.) Miscellaneous items:

• Size of investment portfolio? ($65.2 billion at March 31, 2025)
• Any adverse reserve development in runoff?
• Any change to FFH-TRS position size?

13.) There has been a lot going on at Recipe in 2025.

1. Takeout of minority partner in Q1.
2. Purchase of Olive Garden Canada in Q3 (rights and restaurants).
3. Takeout of Keg Royalties Income Fund in Q3.
4. Spinout of Keg from Recipe later in Q3; partial sale of Keg to Richard Jaffray.

• How much of Keg was sold? Price?
• What is carrying value for Keg?
• What is new carrying value for Recipe?

Recipe is a great example of the benefits of taking a company private. Fairfax and Recipe have been busy the past 3 years improving the business. Their efforts have made the company much more valuable. But that is not showing up in how it is being valued today. My guess is Recipe is a great example of a company where there is a large (and growing) amount of hidden value. Welcome to new Fairfax. Yes, more free stuff (for long term shareholders). 

 

14.) Sale of Eurolife’s life insurance business

• Anticipated to close in Q1 2026.
• Will the sale result in a realized investment gain? If so, about how much? (It is speculated the gain might be as high as $300 million.)

15.) Recently announced take private of Kennedy Wilson at $10.25/share

• What is the strategic rationale for this purchase?
  • Simple investment? Or something else? Or some combination?
• Will Fairfax use partners?

16.) Capital allocation:

• An update to the priorities moving forward?
• After ‘maintain a strong financial position’ what is the next priority?
  • Buybacks?
• Buying back the minority interest at Allied World - is there a date this has to be completed by? What is the estimated cost? How is the cost calculated (how does the call option feature work)?

 

Thanks @Viking for your details.   I am thinking we get over $50 once the Praktiker gain (~$4/share) is included. 

 

I am also curious to see where the CR lands this QTR with the lack of the usual Cat from hurricane season.  The Odyssey Re CEO mentioned they saw opportunities at the 7/1 renewal for the first time that was related to the Credit Rating increases over the past couple of years.  I don't how if this can be quantified. 

 

I am also curious to see if they sold additional 30 year treasuries like they did during Q2.  I was surprised when Fairfax initially bought the 30 year treasures as I thought of it as a Macro bet on interest rates dropping.  

[TwoCitiesCapital]

32 minutes ago, KFS said:

+1.  I often feel like I’m the only person still following this one.  Glad to hear I’m not alone.   

 

I hope they offer more than a 30% premium for that one

[djokovic1]

4 hours ago, Viking said:

My guess is economic EPS in Q3 will come in around $55 to $60/FFH diluted share.

 

My guess is higher than yours -> Accounting EPS will come in ~$50-$55 and economic EPS will be >$60. Let's see!

 

Very roughly, I think Q3 will not be dissimilar to Q2 in aggregate though lower. The lower investment gains relative to Q2 should be somewhat offset by a lower combined ratio given the reporting we have seen from peers. Interest and dividend income should be at least similar if not larger, given a larger portfolio (effect of compounding).

Edited November 5, 2025 by djokovic1

[This2ShallPass]

9 hours ago, Viking said:

Fairfax is generating an enormous amount of excess capital these days. It needs to go somewhere. Why not opportunities like KW? In terms of what is best for KW, the company is better off as a private company (IMHO). 
 

KW has been a terrible long term investment for its shareholders. That is not on Fairfax. 

 

Fairfax is executing value investing as Ben Graham teaches it - one of the big benefits of public markets is the ability to take advantage of Mr Market’s folly. 

 

Fairfax has been vacuuming up a lot of stuff it already owns in recent years - both public and private holdings. KW is just the latest example. This is a sign of very good capital allocation - all these take-outs are in businesses they already understand exceptionally well (are in their circle of competence), which should lower the risk. I love the moves. 

It is good as minority Fairfax shareholder for sure. I added yesterday after many years of standing pat or trimming. Though I think of these new add as trading position.

 

It's how FF treats minority shareholders of their other investments. I don't think its neither fair nor friendly. There is a reason Prem had to testify in court on such actions. As someone who has owned FFI for 10 years, if they take it from me right when BIAL BV is starting to explode I would be livid. Hopefully as @SafetyinNumberssays, they won't touch FFI.

 

[Viking]

19 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said:

It is good as minority Fairfax shareholder for sure. I added yesterday after many years of standing pat or trimming. Though I think of these new add as trading position.

 

It's how FF treats minority shareholders of their other investments. I don't think its neither fair nor friendly. There is a reason Prem had to testify in court on such actions. As someone who has owned FFI for 10 years, if they take it from me right when BIAL BV is starting to explode I would be livid. Hopefully as @SafetyinNumberssays, they won't touch FFI.

 

@This2ShallPass, is there a statute of limitations to how long a CEO should remain in the penalty box for making a mistake (i.e. when it comes to treatment of minority shareholders)? Even the GOAT, Buffett, messed up badly at times. Should he still own all of the mistakes he made years ago today? My read is, on balance, Fairfax has been doing pretty well on the ‘fair and friendly’ front in recent years. Not perfect - but nobody is. They have been saintly with how patient they have been with many of their equity holdings, especially the terrible ones (largely gone now, thank god). The saintly behaviour bothered me much more over the years than the mistakes (related to minority shareholders). 

Edited November 6, 2025 by Viking

[This2ShallPass]

15 minutes ago, Viking said:

@This2ShallPass, is there a statute of limitations to how long a CEO should remain in the penalty box for making a mistake (i.e. when it comes to treatment of minority shareholders)? Even the GOAT, Buffett, messed up badly at times. Should he still own all of the mistakes he made years ago today? My read is, on balance, Fairfax has been doing pretty well on the ‘fair and friendly’ front in recent years. Not perfect - but nobody is. They have been saintly with how patient they have been with many of their equity holdings, especially the terrible ones (largely gone now, thank god). The saintly behaviour bothered me much more over the years than the mistakes (related to minority shareholders). 

@Viking no definitely people make mistakes and all of us should get second chance. I'm just pointing out the recurring pattern. I remember Atlas used to be discussed a lot in these boards and many members bought into it, waited patiently but right at the bottom FF took it away from them.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

37 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said:

It is good as minority Fairfax shareholder for sure. I added yesterday after many years of standing pat or trimming. Though I think of these new add as trading position.

 

It's how FF treats minority shareholders of their other investments. I don't think its neither fair nor friendly. There is a reason Prem had to testify in court on such actions. As someone who has owned FFI for 10 years, if they take it from me right when BIAL BV is starting to explode I would be livid. Hopefully as @SafetyinNumberssays, they won't touch FFI.

 

 

I think Fair and Friendly is misleading and can be interpreted in many ways.

 

For instance, Watsa could say it was "Fair and Friendly" to announce the acquisition at a large premium to the prevailing price instead spending  weeks/months of privately buying whatever they could in options/open markets before forcing a take-under for the remainder with a surprise announcement for the rest. 

 

Or KW could have tipped Ackman off to buy a ton of stock with the agreement to vote in favor of the agreement to ensure it went through to further screw minority shareholders. 

 

We've seen instances of both from others, and this is certainly more "fair and friendly" to existing shareholder base than those options.

 

Ultimately, you should expect that when minority interests conflicts with Fairfax's interests, Fairfax will win out. That doesn't mean it isn't "fair or friendly" - just that we all have different interpretations of where the lines Fair and Friendly are drawn and Watsa doesn't owe you your interpretation. 

 

so maybe best to ignore "fair and friendly" and just simply think of it as they have more integrity than most but will still act in their own interest. 

Edited November 6, 2025 by TwoCitiesCapital

[This2ShallPass]

Just now, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Ultimately, you should expect that when minority interests conflicts with Fairfax's interests, Fairfax will win out.

Agreed. Fool me once and all that. In the future, any minority shareholders complaining it's their own fault. I reduced my FFI holding back to 5% and I'll have to live with it if they take BIAL away (I would still be plenty mad:)).

 

Going back to Fair and friendly, what you said above is by definition not fair or friendly to the minority shareholders. Which is totally fine as in business the big guy wins out most of the time. Just don't have it as your motto..

 

[yesman182]

13 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said:

Agreed. Fool me once and all that. In the future, any minority shareholders complaining it's their own fault. I reduced my FFI holding back to 5% and I'll have to live with it if they take BIAL away (I would still be plenty mad:)).

 

Going back to Fair and friendly, what you said above is by definition not fair or friendly to the minority shareholders. Which is totally fine as in business the big guy wins out most of the time. Just don't have it as your motto..

 

@SafetyinNumbers have you thought much about the GFR rights offer? Seems like it’s a good way for FFH to increase their ownership via WEF, but I’m nervous it won’t work out well for minority holder. Who will be the marginal buyer once WEF owns like 60-70% of GFR? 

[cwericb]

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said:

Agreed. Fool me once and all that. In the future, any minority shareholders complaining it's their own fault. I reduced my FFI holding back to 5% and I'll have to live with it if they take BIAL away (I would still be plenty mad:)).

 

Going back to Fair and friendly, what you said above is by definition not fair or friendly to the minority shareholders. Which is totally fine as in business the big guy wins out most of the time. Just don't have it as your motto..

 

 

As one who was a shareholder of Farfax and Fibrek back in the day, I wholeheartedly agree when you say ... "Just don't have it [Fair and Friendly] as your motto.." 

 

Some might find this article sheds a little different light on "Fair and Friendly".

 

https://financialpost.com/news/fp-street/watsas-mindboggling-reasoning-in-takeover-prompts-court-award

 

While I am a longtime FFH shareholder, I try to avoid owning shares in companies where Fairfax has an interest.

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

43 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said:

@Viking no definitely people make mistakes and all of us should get second chance. I'm just pointing out the recurring pattern. I remember Atlas used to be discussed a lot in these boards and many members bought into it, waited patiently but right at the bottom FF took it away from them.

Fairfax didn’t increase their stake in Atlas. Their partners wanted to take it private. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

36 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said:

Agreed. Fool me once and all that. In the future, any minority shareholders complaining it's their own fault. I reduced my FFI holding back to 5% and I'll have to live with it if they take BIAL away (I would still be plenty mad:)).

 

Going back to Fair and friendly, what you said above is by definition not fair or friendly to the minority shareholders. Which is totally fine as in business the big guy wins out most of the time. Just don't have it as your motto..

 

Fair and Friendly means it’s not hostile and minority shareholders get to vote. A majority of the minority is required. It also means when they make an offer they don’t drop the price later. It doesn’t mean the price is fair value. They want to buy at a discount. That’s what it’s all about. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

13 minutes ago, cwericb said:

 

 

 

 

As one who was a shareholder of Farfax and Fibrek back in the day, I wholeheartedly agree when you say ... "Just don't have it [Fair and Friendly] as your motto.." 

 

Some might find this article sheds a little different light on "Fair and Friendly".

 

https://financialpost.com/news/fp-street/watsas-mindboggling-reasoning-in-takeover-prompts-court-award

 

While I am a longtime FFH shareholder, I try to avoid owning shares in companies where Fairfax has an interest.

 

I would like to read the transcript. My interpretation of the situation is that they signed a lock up and were bound to it. Having been in that situation I know first hand it can be incredibly frustrating. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

24 minutes ago, yesman182 said:

@SafetyinNumbers have you thought much about the GFR rights offer? Seems like it’s a good way for FFH to increase their ownership via WEF, but I’m nervous it won’t work out well for minority holder. Who will be the marginal buyer once WEF owns like 60-70% of GFR? 

I don’t think it matters much who the marginal buyer is. After the rights issue, they won’t need any equity. If the stock is too cheap they will probably try to buy other assets with cash or stock at a fair NAV ratio. GFR is the only thing in WEF III, there will be more deals. 

[Parsad]

14 hours ago, petec said:

 

As a minority owner of Fairfax, would you rather they paid full value?

 

I was and will be quite content to sell both Atlas and KW at the prices offered and even happier to continue to own Fairfax. And I went into both subsidiary positions knowing full well what might happen. 
 

Also, the last time KW traded above the offer price was nearly 2 years ago. I think that’s stretching the definition of a temporary market dislocation. 
 

Edit: Prem, if you’re reading this, please do Ensign next. The cash flow is obscene. 

 

13 hours ago, villainx said:

 

You beat me to the joke about Prem being a lurker here!

 

You might check the folks following you too!

 

=P

 

Not a joke...he does read the Fairfax section in particular...as do a bunch of other people at Fairfax. 

 

He's watching when you are good...he's watching when you are bad...just like Santa Claus!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

6 hours ago, dartmonkey said:

McMorrow owns about 25m of the company's 138m shares, a bit over 18% of the company. He paid himself $16m last year, $14m the year before. Total revenues $532m, so his pay represents over 3% of revenues. Other execs were the (now ex-) president Mary Ricks, at $11m, current president Windisch at ~$7m, general counsel In Ku Lee at $5m, and CFO Justin Enbody at $4m. Total for these top 5 was $44m, while the company had EBITDA of $216m. Seems excessive for a company with a market cap of about $1b yesterday ($1.3b today).

 

I would imagine the compensation structure will change slightly...more tied to performance.  Cheers!