DOGE Trades

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Yes, you read that right. Not the crypto coin but the Department of Government Efficiency. What stocks could be beneficiaries of D.O.G.E? Tesla is the obvious answer, but what else? Are Elon & Vivek going to audit departments, who will benefit from that? Are they going to update the tech stack in government offices? Curious to know who the members here think will be beneficiaries of D.O.G.E.

[Spekulatius]

DOGE sh$tco$n  of course.

[Fly]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

DOGE sh$tco$n  of course.

Unironically this, probably outpace anything else in the next few years sadly. 

[Spooky]

4 minutes ago, Fly said:

Unironically this, probably outpace anything else in the next few years sadly. 

 

A new golden age of crypto scams

[Malmqky]

Is DOGE even a thing?

 

Doesn’t congress have to create a new department?

 

Seems like Elon and Vivek are some LARPers atm?

[Junior R]

2 hours ago, Malmqky said:

Is DOGE even a thing?

 

Doesn’t congress have to create a new department?

 

Seems like Elon and Vivek are some LARPers atm?

they would right now everything with trump is not confirmed even his picks will be intresting to watch

[Malmqky]

So DOGE could end up being glorified contractors/advisors to Trump? Seems like Elon, Vivek, and Trump is a too many cooks in the kitchen situation. Can't believe the egos will coexistent.

 

There have to be some kind of opportunities here. Not sure what they are though besides the shitcoin.

[WayWardCloud]

Great topic!

Thanks for starting it.

 

I'm thinking companies like Appian which provides custom made software for government agencies so they can operate with less staff.

[Stuart D]

If Elon can fire 80% of government employees my guess is that will be recessionary and puts on the SPY or QQQ might be an interesting play.

[lnofeisone]

11 hours ago, Stuart D said:

If Elon can fire 80% of government employees my guess is that will be recessionary and puts on the SPY or QQQ might be an interesting play.

There is 0% chance he will fire 80% of gov't employees. Fed employee growth also isn't the real problem.

 

[Spekulatius]

I bet they can’t even fire 10%. 80% is laughable. The states and other public institutions like schools etc are the problem, not federal employees.

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I bet they can’t even fire 10%. 80% is laughable. The states and other public institutions like schools etc are the problem, not federal employees.

 

Except Federal employees don't give you a full day's work. With 1% showing up at the office, this is a perfect setup for a  RIF (reduction in force).

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

Except Federal employees don't give you a full day's work. With 1% showing up at the office, this is a perfect setup for a  RIF (reduction in force).

I don't think this is true at all. I worked with DOJ attorneys gearing up for trials and they put as many hours as any big law firm lawyers for fraction of the salary. I worked with a couple of scientists ans doctors at NIH and they work more than their commercial counterparts. I can same the same for most gs14 and gs15 equivalents. You may have an argument for lower gs employees but they make up a smaller $ fraction of total salary pie. 

[Dinar]

52 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

I don't think this is true at all. I worked with DOJ attorneys gearing up for trials and they put as many hours as any big law firm lawyers for fraction of the salary. I worked with a couple of scientists ans doctors at NIH and they work more than their commercial counterparts. I can same the same for most gs14 and gs15 equivalents. You may have an argument for lower gs employees but they make up a smaller $ fraction of total salary pie. 

A friend's mother works for the NIH.  She says that she cannot fire poor performers.  So what is the incentives for federal employees to work well?  Name one program/thing that the Federal government does efficiently?  I don't care for how many hours they work, the question is what is the output!  Biden hired tens of thousands of Federal employees, what are they doing?  

NASA spent over $100bn over the past decade or two, what have they accomplished with that money?  Medicare advantage for veterans is a real good use of taxpayer funds, eh?

Edited December 9 by Dinar

[shhughes1116]

4 hours ago, Dinar said:

A friend's mother works for the NIH.  She says that she cannot fire poor performers.  So what is the incentives for federal employees to work well?  Name one program/thing that the Federal government does efficiently?  I don't care for how many hours they work, the question is what is the output!  Biden hired tens of thousands of Federal employees, what are they doing?  

NASA spent over $100bn over the past decade or two, what have they accomplished with that money?  Medicare advantage for veterans is a real good use of taxpayer funds, eh?

It’s quite straightforward to fire poor performers.  Done it multiple times over the last two decades.  For Insubordination and for performance.  Some hiring authorities like Title 42 and SBRBPS - hiring authorities routinely used at NIH -  make it more straightforward.  Once you fire the first one, your Branch/Division/Office gets a reputation and the shitty employees stay away.  If a supervisor is saying it is impossible to fire poor performers, then in my experience in the Fed gov, it is the supervisor that is the poor performer and should be fired. 
 

I think re-shoring tech and other supply chain components will be the winning trade under Trump.  I think DOGE will implode in a battle of egos between Vivek, Elon, Trump, and JD, which is unfortunate because I think they could bring some good ideas to government.  

[lnofeisone]

6 hours ago, Dinar said:

A friend's mother works for the NIH.  She says that she cannot fire poor performers.  So what is the incentives for federal employees to work well?  Name one program/thing that the Federal government does efficiently?  I don't care for how many hours they work, the question is what is the output!  Biden hired tens of thousands of Federal employees, what are they doing?  

NASA spent over $100bn over the past decade or two, what have they accomplished with that money?  Medicare advantage for veterans is a real good use of taxpayer funds, eh?

Department of State Foreign Service Officers (FSOs) are probably the best example of Gov't up or out. They really do let go of low performers. 

 

I view our gov't workforce as: 1) Mission - people that actually do the work. So think lawyers, doctors, scientists and 2) IT and enabling functions. I think there is A LOT of waste in the IT departments. This is where you have massive contractor budgets, etc. So if you are really looking for budget reductions I would start with:

 

1) Look at contractor budgets. Those are your CACI, IBM, Accenture, etc.

2) Look at the IT and enabling functions.

[Gamecock-YT]

state owned properties being sold off to oligarch buddies under nefarious measures

[whatstheofficerproblem]

 

Looks like both Elon & Vivek agree on this. Now the question is who will they choose for this project, how and why?

[Malmqky]

15 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

Looks like both Elon & Vivek agree on this. Now the question is who will they choose for this project, how and why?

 

Elon is too dishonest  But that's how politicians are and that's what he is these days. I hated a lot on his Twitter deal, but buying influence like he did might be worth the funds he paid.

 

I still don't think Elon/Vivek have any authority and not sure why people think DOGE is something that's actually going to exist. @whatstheofficerproblem thoughts on legitimacy of DOGE and if any of this cost cutting is even possible?

[whatstheofficerproblem]

I think it is possible. Even if DOGE was a muppet structure, they have now legitimized it by advertising it as the solution to govt spending. It has developed great traction among youth, they have even opened applications for people to apply so they can join DOGE.

 

I think people from all sides of the political aisle will agree that govt spending is a far bigger problem than anything at hand. Pentagon failing trillion dollar audits, mayors not knowing what the allocated funds being used for etc. If Bernie Sanders has come out of the woodworks to support DOGE, as much as I think he is a giant hypocrite, it is one hell of an endorsement. We also have self-hating sepoy Ro Khanna volunteering, both sides support it.

 

I would personally say demolish the IRS, a man can dream right?

Edited December 11 by whatstheofficerproblem

[mcliu]

1 hour ago, Malmqky said:

 

Elon is too dishonest  But that's how politicians are and that's what he is these days. I hated a lot on his Twitter deal, but buying influence like he did might be worth the funds he paid.

 

I still don't think Elon/Vivek have any authority and not sure why people think DOGE is something that's actually going to exist. @whatstheofficerproblem thoughts on legitimacy of DOGE and if any of this cost cutting is even possible?

The same people that said SpaceX and Tesla were going to fail are now saying it about DOGE.

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, mcliu said:

The same people that said SpaceX and Tesla were going to fail are now saying it about DOGE.

 

I have a real hard time seeing how DOGE will fail. It looks too easy.

 

Just like the Twitter purchase - where he cut 80% of staff - and the company is even better today.

[Malmqky]

7 minutes ago, mcliu said:

The same people that said SpaceX and Tesla were going to fail are now saying it about DOGE.

 

Most people are idiots, myself included...but I don't think this is a valid argument.

 

Tesla and SpaceX both EXIST.

 

DOGE doesn't even exist. Remember when Elon said he was taking Tesla private? Or when the cybertruck could drive under the ocean?

 

I think the best way to play DOGE is by assuming it won't ever exist and instead trade based off that.

 

EDIT: IF the department is created it'll probably be successful. But Elon is an immigrant who was here for years illegally. I don't think our government is going to completely ignore that.

Edited December 11 by Malmqky

[Malmqky]

1 hour ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

I think it is possible. Even if DOGE was a muppet structure, they have now legitimized it by advertising it as the solution to govt spending. It has developed great traction among youth, they have even opened applications for people to apply so they can join DOGE.

 

I think people from all sides of the political aisle will agree that govt spending is a far bigger problem than anything at hand. Pentagon failing trillion dollar audits, mayors not knowing what the allocated funds being used for etc. If Bernie Sanders has come out of the woodworks to support DOGE, as much as I think he is a giant hypocrite, it is one hell of an endorsement. We also have self-hating sepoy Ro Khanna volunteering, both sides support it.

 

I would personally say demolish the IRS, a man can dream right?

 

I agree the "movement" itself is solid. I agree our government spends way too much. I would be in favor of massive cuts. I wouldn't be opposed to the IRS being demolished even. 

 

Let me be clear - I agree with most of what Elon and Vivek say and claim to want to do in essence.

 

I'm just skeptical of them, their motives, and if anything they're saying is realistic or will happen. Chiefly DOGE - you just can't create a government department with a snap of your fingers. Especially one that's goal is to lay off thousands/cut billions of spending.

Edited December 11 by Malmqky

[whatstheofficerproblem]

8 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

DOGE doesn't even exist. Remember when Elon said he was taking Tesla private? Or when the cybertruck could drive under the ocean?

 

 

I think this is a fair argument.

 

Tesla & SpaceX are business, they can fail anytime. DOGE is a government entity, the US govt by definition is too big to fail, depends on how much jurisdiction & power will left at DOGE's discretion, if it's a namesake think tank then all of this would have been for naught, but the case is it isn't.

 

6 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

I'm just skeptical of them, their motives, and if anything they're saying is realistic or will happen.

 

Who cares, I personally don't mind if Elon makes a few billion if that means we can save trillions here after. His networth has increased $4B a week since election. I do think that if either of them were to abuse their power, they will be called out on it. A lot of Republicans are waiting for a chance to find fault with Vivek, the dems already hate him.

 

I think Vivek & Elon will ultimately be each others' checks and balance, they will keep each other from pushing the line too far. Nothing speaks about govt efficiency more than hiring two people to do the same job, amirite.

Edited December 11 by whatstheofficerproblem