President-Elect Trump trades

[gfp]

27 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Don’t hard on yourself folks, you can always partially fix the issue by submitting a proposal to Sanjeev to rename to forum to “Corner of Berkshire, Fairfax and Bitcoin”

 

 

 

"There is no second best.  But if there was, it would be Fairfax and Berkshire... "

[Blake Hampton]

How does Buffett avoid macro factors when investing? It seems almost certain that the right approach is to simply move on and go find a cheap stock, but isn't there some basis for consideration? Shouldn't the overall valuation of a market have at least some effect on decision making? The man has a masters in economics and seems to understand it to a tee, but then almost recommends to eschew that same data.

I'm confused.

[dealraker]

On topic Trump trades:

 

Avoid anything healthcare.

Avoid traditional defense co's. Think Musk.

Avoid higher yielding longer term guv debt no matter what.  Think restructure particularly if rates rise.

Avoid railroads, particularly the one going to Mexico.  Lot of pent up shipper anger towards rr's, Trump can ride that horse with huge fanfare.

With Kennedy don't just avoid health also avoid processed food co's.

Also...in any financial crisis...think insurance underwriters position in the big man's manner of thought.  Remember laws and customs aren't relevant.

Edited November 14 by dealraker

[Blake Hampton]

21 minutes ago, dealraker said:

On topic Trump trades:

 

Avoid anything healthcare.

Avoid defense.  Think Musk.

Avoid higher yielding longer term guv debt no matter what.

Avoid railroads, particularly the one going to Mexico.

With Kennedy don't just avoid health also avoid processed food co's.

 

Rob Kennedy Jr. is my favorite.

 

I was recently overlooking the portfolio of my girlfriend's father, which he currently has sitting at Fisher Investments. They have him in a mix of 40% S&P 500, 40% long term fixed-income, and 20% GT. He worked at Goodyear to get that last one.

If you look more closely at the mix of the fixed-income fund, it has all sorts of long dated bonds (30 year maturities) from outside the United States. The largest holding is actually a Mexican government.

It blows my mind.

Edited November 14 by Blake Hampton

[Blake Hampton]

20 minutes ago, dealraker said:

On topic Trump trades:

 

Avoid anything healthcare.

Avoid traditional defense co's. Think Musk.

Avoid higher yielding longer term guv debt no matter what.  Think restructure particularly if rates rise.

Avoid railroads, particularly the one going to Mexico.  Lot of pent up shipper anger towards rr's, Trump can ride that horse with huge fanfare.

With Kennedy don't just avoid health also avoid processed food co's.

 

You think restructuring is on the table, that's crazy.

[dealraker]

40 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

You think restructuring is on the table, that's crazy.

Actually I'm being a tad silly here Blake with all of it.  But Jeffrey Gundlach is the one repeatedly suggesting that US debt restructuring is something he considers relevant.  Yes as you say it is crazy.  But Jeff ain't stupid.

 

Trump will support the rails unless he senses political gain by criticizing them, the STB is constantly monitoring this.  We know the CP story.

 

I do think Musk will get involved with defense.  Where that goes?  Will be interesting.

 

Kennedy hates the drug industry, wants an 8 year sabbatical on drug research...or so he has repeatedly said.  Kennedy despises the processed food industry.  

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

@Vish_ram I never said that a fixed money supply would crash the economy.

 

Instated that the total value of the money in circulation does not equal the amount of goods or the value of assets in the economy. Those too tend to be related but they are not equal. You could indeed run an economy without any money at all, but it would be harder to facilitate transactions.

[Vish_ram]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

@Vish_ram I never said that a fixed money supply would crash the economy.

 

Instated that the total value of the money in circulation does not equal the amount of goods or the value of assets in the economy. Those too tend to be related but they are not equal. You could indeed run an economy without any money at all, but it would be harder to facilitate transactions.

Agreed. Sorry I misunderstood 

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, dealraker said:

  But Jeffrey Gundlach is the one repeatedly suggesting that US debt restructuring is something he considers relevant.  Yes as you say it is crazy.  But Jeff ain't stupid

 

for your entertainment:

 

The former bond king on Gundlach, at mark 40 min. 

 

 

[dealraker]

11 hours ago, Xerxes said:

for your entertainment:

 

The former bond king on Gundlach, at mark 40 min. 

 

 

I absolutely loved Bill Gross' tenure.  Both he and Gundlach have had their ups and downs, but they are both over time good with bonds.  They are absolutely terrible forecasting stocks...or at least have been thus far.

 

Gross conflicts with everyone while Gundlach seems to typically love the disruption mode which is easily THE theme of this era.  Everyone loves disruption....just as long as their benefits and privileges are not affected.

 

Life is great...if you can stand it.  

[Spekulatius]

RFK is leading the FDA. The next Trump trade is cigs and booze. 
 

 

Edited November 15 by Spekulatius

[Spooky]

How does the board feel about some of these Trump cabinet picks? Matt Gaetz as AG doesn't fill me with confidence for the prospects of the rule of law or a politically independent DOJ.

[Gregmal]

Gaetz as AG is definitely a little jaw dropping. But I mean so is what they've turned the Justice Department into over the past decade. People's only concern should be, how do I profit off this? 

[Malmqky]

14 minutes ago, Spooky said:

How does the board feel about some of these Trump cabinet picks? Matt Gaetz as AG doesn't fill me with confidence for the prospects of the rule of law or a politically independent DOJ.

This isn’t our father’s Republican Party.

 

Gaetz is a joke and a bad pick. Trump could do much better. America could do much better. 

[Pelagic]

12 minutes ago, Spooky said:

How does the board feel about some of these Trump cabinet picks? Matt Gaetz as AG doesn't fill me with confidence for the prospects of the rule of law or a politically independent DOJ.

Seems like Gaetz, Gabbard, and RFK Jr. are something of a political litmus test Trump is imposing on the senate. If he can get them through then it's a signal the senate is onboard for just about anything, especially during Trump's first 100 days. Allegedly Musk is threatening to fund primary challengers to Republicans who hold up nominations or other legislation, a threat that likely holds less weight against senators who might be up for re-election in 4 or 6 years, than house members.

[Spooky]

19 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

People's only concern should be, how do I profit off this? 

 

If everyone thinks like this won't it corrode US society / capitalism in the long run?

[sleepydragon]

33 minutes ago, Spooky said:

How does the board feel about some of these Trump cabinet picks? Matt Gaetz as AG doesn't fill me with confidence for the prospects of the rule of law or a politically independent DOJ.

That’s why i am betting he’s going to pick Lutnick over Bessent, though betting market thinks it will be Bessent. 

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

If everyone thinks like this won't it corrode US society / capitalism in the long run?

They’re incapable. They’re more concerned with things they are brainwashed into thinking matter, that don’t really matter. Like “protecting democracy”, “freeing Palestine” and “eradicating hate”….

 

Of course those things “matter”, but the people are only fed these emotion grabbing topics to keep them from behaving rationally. They get occupied and emotionally invested in things they have no say in, and the haves just keep winning.

[Spekulatius]

17 hours ago, dealraker said:

On topic Trump trades:

 

Avoid anything healthcare.

Avoid traditional defense co's. Think Musk.

Avoid higher yielding longer term guv debt no matter what.  Think restructure particularly if rates rise.

Avoid railroads, particularly the one going to Mexico.  Lot of pent up shipper anger towards rr's, Trump can ride that horse with huge fanfare.

With Kennedy don't just avoid health also avoid processed food co's.

Also...in any financial crisis...think insurance underwriters position in the big man's manner of thought.  Remember laws and customs aren't relevant.

Avoid Tesla too because EV credits will likely get cancelled.

Diversify out of the US markets.

[Dinar]

43 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Avoid Tesla too because EV credits will likely get cancelled.

Diversify out of the US markets.

Actually, it is quite the opposite.  Other EV makers in the US are not profitable without the credits, so they would have to either greatly raise price or get out of the business, both good for Tesla. 

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Malmqky said:

This isn’t our father’s Republican Party.

 

Gaetz is a joke and a bad pick. Trump could do much better. America could do much better. 

 

Merrick Garland will go down as the most corrupt AG in American history. No one has every weaponized the DOJ against political oppenents like Garland. 

 

Matt Gaetz will be a serious upgrade & give the DOJ a well deserved housecleaning.

[Malmqky]

8 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Merrick Garland will go down as the most corrupt AG in American history. No one has every weaponized the DOJ against political oppenents like Garland. 

 

Matt Gaetz will be a serious upgrade & give the DOJ a well deserved housecleaning.

 

There's probably a few hundred thousand that can be an upgrade over Garland and give the DOJ a housecleaning.

 

Gaetz is not the right move.

[cubsfan]

9 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

 

There's probably a few hundred thousand that can be an upgrade over Garland and give the DOJ a housecleaning.

 

Gaetz is not the right move.

 

What is needed is an outsider, certainly not another DC swamp rat. Gaetz is certainly well qualified - and not liked in DC - which is a huge plus.

 

 

[Spooky]

23 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Merrick Garland will go down as the most corrupt AG in American history. No one has every weaponized the DOJ against political oppenents like Garland. 

 

Matt Gaetz will be a serious upgrade & give the DOJ a well deserved housecleaning.

 

Hope you are not serious.

[Junior R]

these nominees still need to get approved by Senate  ...So there is big chance some of the non qualifying ones wont

Edited November 15 by Junior R