BRK Q3 Results

[Munger_Disciple]

FWIW I don't think Warren is building a huge cash pile for an acquisition. I suspect he thinks that the US stock market is greatly overvalued and is trading at high valuation based on possibly cyclically adjusted high earnings w/o factoring into account any of the big risks. And T-bills are paying him a decent inflation adjusted return w/o any risk so T-bills will be the default until he finds something intelligent to do. I like that he stopped buying back Berkshire stock at these prices. Warren may also be "cleaning up the portfolio" to hand-off just permanent holdings to Greg to manage, and the current valuations make that relatively painless. 

Edited November 2 by Munger_Disciple

[DooDiligence]

27 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

There is no way the Mars family wants to sell such a great business unless there are family issues with control. 

 

You're undoubtedly right (and Google agrees).oo). I'll stop

 

I'll stop spamming the thread after this.

 

 

Edited November 2 by DooDiligence

[Blake Hampton]

I’m kinda surprised Buffett still owns as much Apple as he currently does, it seems crazy expensive to me.
 

I know it’s a great business, arguably the best, but 36x earnings for a $3.4 trillion enterprise with consistently negative earnings growth seems like a hell of a lot. This is on top of historically low corporate taxes and interest expenses.

 

edit: I would also add that Apple practices some funny tax avoidance schemes that I don’t know how to feel about. I understand though that they’re not alone.

Edited November 2 by Blake Hampton

[Munger_Disciple]

1 hour ago, DooDiligence said:

 

You're undoubtedly right (and Google agrees).oo). I'll stop

 

 

 If it's on the internet, it must be true 

[Munger_Disciple]

The number of Berkshire shares outstanding (A equivalent) have actually gone up by 912 during Q3 to 1,407,608. Appears related to buying back BHE stock held by Scott estate.

[UK]

 

[John Hjorth]

18 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

... edit: I would also add that Apple practices some funny tax avoidance schemes that I don’t know how to feel about. I understand though that they’re not alone.

 

Blake [ @Blake Hampton ],

 

I would certainly like to read your elaboration on that matter, - but in the AAPL topic in the Investment Ideas forum, not here.

 

I hope you hereby pick up the glove thrown on the ground in front of you.  

 

Thank you.

[Spekulatius]

I think Buffett is going to sell Apple and BofA down to zero. Apple for valuation reasons (they basically stopped growing years ago and multiple keeps expanding) and BAC because he does not like their AOCI loss - a result of mismanaging their balance sheet in 2021 (~$800B of 2% yielding MBS).
I think he changed his opinion on banks overall.

 

The lack of buybacks tells us that Berkshire stock is not cheap at the moment in his view.

[gary17]

Apple is transitioning from a hardware to a software / service company IMHO

[Blake Hampton]

Buffett’s ability to continue holding onto a stock is simply incredible to me. Even though he talks against market timing, it almost seems that he is incredibly good at it. I’ve read about how people consider him holding KO past the late 90s being a mistake, but I imagine this trait has done him far more good over the years than bad.

 

I just don’t understand it. When does Buffett truly decide it’s time to sell?

[Munger_Disciple]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think Buffett is going to sell Apple and BofA down to zero. Apple for valuation reasons (they basically stopped growing years ago and multiple keeps expanding) and BAC because he does not like their AOCI loss - a result of mismanaging their balance sheet in 2021 (~$800B of 2% yielding MBS).
I think he changed his opinion on banks overall.

 

The lack of buybacks tells us that Berkshire stock is not cheap at the moment in his view.

 

I am not sure about Apple; Warren said it is likely (not guaranteed) that they would end 2024 with it being the largest stock holding of Berkshire. Naturally he can change his mind especially if Apple valuation keeps going up. I think you are 100% correct about BAC. Warren was very disappointed at how they piled into LT treasuries in 2020-21, reaching for a tiny bit of yield. 

Edited November 3 by Munger_Disciple

[gfp]

[LC]

1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said:

I just don’t understand it. When does Buffett truly decide it’s time to sell?

 

Honestly I think it's one of Buffett's tells that he too is simply human. He's contradicted himself many times over the years ("we don't trim!")...I think he means well, but really it's one of the hardest things to do in investing, much less communicate accurately. 

 

The best I can figure: He sells before he thinks the stock is going to go down significantly. 

Edited November 3 by LC

[Munger_Disciple]

3 hours ago, gfp said:

 

Yeah that sums it up pretty well 

[brobro777]

Old man Buffett unloading size into a rising market so he doesn't have to when its crashing - boy hes a good market timer, one of the best

[Parsad]

Anyone know how much debt is coming up for renewal by the U.S. each year for the next 4 years?

 

Anyone know exactly how much debt will be added by Harris or Trump based on their policies over the next 4 years?

 

Is everyone convinced that rates on U.S. debt will continue to drop or remain where they are, even as the Fed continues to unwind their balance sheet?

 

Is Buffett too eager, or does he see that interest rates will have to rise over the next few years?

 

Cheers!

[coffeecaninvestor]

16 hours ago, LC said:

 

Honestly I think it's one of Buffett's tells that he too is simply human. He's contradicted himself many times over the years ("we don't trim!")...I think he means well, but really it's one of the hardest things to do in investing, much less communicate accurately. 

 

The best I can figure: He sells before he thinks the stock is going to go down significantly. 

Obviously it’s impossible to know what he is thinking, but I was reading The Warren buffet Way in it he breaks down the “permanent” holdings. He has in the past sold some of them such as GHC when he felt like long term prospects are not as good as. That would probably be my bet. I think he likes management enough to hold a good size position, just not as big as it had gotten.I think it’s good for the old man to be flexible. I’m sure they will find a good use for the capital. It just might not be on the timeline we would want. 

Edited November 4 by coffeecaninvestor

[73 Reds]

18 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

Buffett’s ability to continue holding onto a stock is simply incredible to me. Even though he talks against market timing, it almost seems that he is incredibly good at it. I’ve read about how people consider him holding KO past the late 90s being a mistake, but I imagine this trait has done him far more good over the years than bad.

 

I just don’t understand it. When does Buffett truly decide it’s time to sell?

I see it differently.  It is incredibly easy to hold onto great businesses when you don't look at them as tradable clicks.  Buffett has talked about this often.  Why would it be difficult to hold onto stocks but not so difficult to hold onto all of Berkshire's subsidiary businesses?           

[longterminvestor]

What Mr. Buffett tells us/shows us is interesting, what he doesn't tell us/show us is what keeps me fascinated.  The simplicity is just incredible.  

 

Not too long ago, I was spending nights pouring over the 10-Q's anticipating what is gonna happen, taking detailed notes, share counts, spreadsheets, and just bathing in the numbers.  Now I find myself just skimming and its amazing what has been built, I am proud to be a shareholder of this great company.  

 

Something I was considering was, How does Berkshire pay that tax?  The method of payment.  Do they just upload the Billions into the IRS website like the rest of us?  Or do they just send it by check via USPS - in a standard envelope with no cover letter?  Would enjoy knowing the mechanics to tax payment on the Apple sale...just for fun.  

[Eldad]

In my mind it is fairly obvious that KO and BNSF are more predictable businesses, super longterm, than AAPL. KO may not be a world beater, but it is extremely profitable. I think it could do very well if they would buyback some damn stock. 
 

Also, how does having the most cash in BRK history clean the slate or make things easier on Greg? If WB died tomorrow, it is hard to imagine a situation with more pressure. 

[Spooky]

11 hours ago, Parsad said:

Anyone know how much debt is coming up for renewal by the U.S. each year for the next 4 years?

 

Anyone know exactly how much debt will be added by Harris or Trump based on their policies over the next 4 years?

 

Is everyone convinced that rates on U.S. debt will continue to drop or remain where they are, even as the Fed continues to unwind their balance sheet?

 

Is Buffett too eager, or does he see that interest rates will have to rise over the next few years?

 

Cheers!

 

You're onto something here Parsad. Either taxes need to rise or spending needs to be cut - otherwise the US could be headed for a similar story to what is happening in the UK with yields on government bonds rising sharply. The Fed is not really in control of interest rates on government debt, rather it is market participants' willingness to lend to the government. There is a scenario where US interests could end up being higher than the market is currently forecasting and we know what would happen to stocks in this scenario.

[gfp]

As most people would have expected, Berkshire Hathaway Energy continued selling BYD stock in Q3 after the last required HK disclosure on July 16th.  They appear to have ended the quarter with $825m worth of HK:1211, suggesting a further 58% of their 7/16 position was sold between 7/17 and 9/30.  There was a big run-up in BYD shares around quarter end and early October so it is plausible they completed their exit - which jives with the timing of the cash repurchase of some of the Scott estate shares.

 

Back of the envelope, 7/16 ownership was 54,200,142 HK:1211 shares and I estimate 9/30 ownership was about 22.66m shares.  Wouldn't be surprised if that is zero now.

 

BHE 10Q: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/71180/000108131624000022/bhe-20240930.htm

 

 

(edit: BNSF LLC 10Q is here for those interested: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/934612/000093461224000015/bni-20240930.htm  )

Edited November 4 by gfp

[dealraker]

11 hours ago, Parsad said:

Anyone know how much debt is coming up for renewal by the U.S. each year for the next 4 years?

 

Anyone know exactly how much debt will be added by Harris or Trump based on their policies over the next 4 years?

 

Is everyone convinced that rates on U.S. debt will continue to drop or remain where they are, even as the Fed continues to unwind their balance sheet?

 

Is Buffett too eager, or does he see that interest rates will have to rise over the next few years?

 

Cheers!

My guess is Warren Buffett is reasonably certain something is going to give- that staying in short term credit will do as well as business/stocks. 

 

My worthless view is that more near term than long term:

 

My guess is that rates do rise and that could be significant, even temporarily violently higher in a bond related panic.  2nd guess, particularly if Trump is leading, is that US debt is at least threatened to be (and likely to be) restructured.  So if I were an investor I'd be leery of any longer term US debt with a decent interest rate.

 

As far as balancing tax rev vs. spending?  Democrats are pretty much accurately understood ----  and what's not widely understood is that Republicans are worse than Democrats, often far worse.  

Edited November 4 by dealraker

[Jaygo]

Unless he's looking north of the border for an acquisition he is crazy. 

 

Here in Canada we are about as shitty as we are going to get. The disaster at the top is on his way out. Millennials and gen z are stating to understand that socialism sucks. We have the worlds most resources in a "free democratic country" and the beaver buck is cheaper than TP and i would imagine we will be at parity again with a decade.

 

USA equivalent stocks are atrociously expensive and i'm digging bargains up here daily. 

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

Unless he's looking north of the border for an acquisition he is crazy. 

 

Here in Canada we are about as shitty as we are going to get. The disaster at the top is on his way out. Millennials and gen z are stating to understand that socialism sucks. We have the worlds most resources in a "free democratic country" and the beaver buck is cheaper than TP and i would imagine we will be at parity again with a decade.

 

USA equivalent stocks are atrociously expensive and i'm digging bargains up here daily. 

Can any one of those Canadian bargains move BRK's needle?  Maybe he should offer to buy a Canadian province.