Q3 - 2024

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, mananainvesting said:

Yeah, they didnt give the number from 2017 but from last 5 years which is 22% annualized (Prasad confirmed as well yesterday). 5 years is a long enough time frame to see this likely to be a fantastic investment in the future. 

 

I don't know if Ben is capable of doing 22% annualized returns long-term...that's Buffett territory.  But I'm pretty sure he's capable of doing 13-15% annualized...and that's all investor's and Fairfax need.  Only time will tell.  Cheers!

[gfp]

These guys are just like MicroStrategy - the higher their stock price goes the higher the intrinsic value of the company

[Redskin212]

At one point today FFH was up US$90 to US$1,330, which is for all the old timers here was the price we could buy the stock one day back in June 2006 - 18 years ago.  I purchase a couple hundred shares that day at $90.17, so today's gain is kind of breathtaking!  Not to mention the fact, I probably have received well over $90 in dividends over the 18 years.  

[Hoodlum]

National Post increased target to $2400 cdn. 
 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-fridays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-for-november-1/
 

 

“We believe the combination of 1) solid underwriting results with a combined ratio of 94 per cent vs. the street 98 per cent; 2) consolidated interest and dividend income that remains at a run rate of $2.4 billion; 3) outperformance from associates and consolidated investments; and 4) solid net investment performance supports our view Fairfax will deliver consistent profitability (ROE in the mid to high teens) over the next several years,” said Mr. Gloyn. “Moreover, FFH continues to hold $2 billion in cash at the holdco and $2.3-billion in excess capital at its insurance subsidiaries to deploy in ROE accretive transactions (e.g., buybacks or repurchase of minority interests in those insurance subsidiaries). We firmly believe FFH merits a higher valuation than the current trading multiple.”

 

[Redskin212]

3 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

National Post increased target to $2400 cdn. 
 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-fridays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-for-november-1/
 

 

 

“We believe the combination of 1) solid underwriting results with a combined ratio of 94 per cent vs. the street 98 per cent; 2) consolidated interest and dividend income that remains at a run rate of $2.4 billion; 3) outperformance from associates and consolidated investments; and 4) solid net investment performance supports our view Fairfax will deliver consistent profitability (ROE in the mid to high teens) over the next several years,” said Mr. Gloyn. “Moreover, FFH continues to hold $2 billion in cash at the holdco and $2.3-billion in excess capital at its insurance subsidiaries to deploy in ROE accretive transactions (e.g., buybacks or repurchase of minority interests in those insurance subsidiaries). We firmly believe FFH merits a higher valuation than the current trading multiple.”

 

One of the better analysts out there following FFH - always on point.  I think he follows Viking

[Jaygo]

3 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

No withholding for Canadians

Thanks  

[Xerxes]

These are monster gain today (+8%).

 

I think I am going to treat myself a pumpkin spice latte (w/o whipped cream) tomorrow at SBUX as a pad on the shoulder. After a healthy run of course. 

[Xerxes]

21 minutes ago, Redskin212 said:

At one point today FFH was up US$90 to US$1,330, which is for all the old timers here was the price we could buy the stock one day back in June 2006 - 18 years ago.  I purchase a couple hundred shares that day at $90.17, so today's gain is kind of breathtaking!  Not to mention the fact, I probably have received well over $90 in dividends over the 18 years.  

congrats !

YTD it added the its entire pre-Covid value per share. I guess I am ignoring the share count reduction since. 

[Luke]

13 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I think I am going to treat myself a pumpkin spice latte (w/o whipped cream) tomorrow at SBUX as a pad on the shoulder. After a healthy run of course. 

LOL

[SafetyinNumbers]

9 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

congrats !

YTD it added the its entire pre-Covid value per share. I guess I am ignoring the share count reduction since. 

The power of compounding at work!

[dartmonkey]

44 minutes ago, Redskin212 said:

At one point today FFH was up US$90 to US$1,330, which is for all the old timers here was the price we could buy the stock one day back in June 2006 - 18 years ago.  I purchase a couple hundred shares that day at $90.17, so today's gain is kind of breathtaking!  Not to mention the fact, I probably have received well over $90 in dividends over the 18 years.  

Yes, 140.75 by my count:

2007:2.75

2008:5

2009:8

2010: 10

2011-13: 0

2014-23: 10

2024: 15

 

Nice going. 

[Junior R]

what happened to Muddy Waters lol

[Junior R]

55% YTD now on TSX

[Santayana]

2 minutes ago, Junior R said:

what happened to Muddy Waters lol

He's drinking heavily with Brett Horn.  Unless the entire short attack was just a ploy get himself a better entry point to go long!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, SoonParted said:

When the US listing is an ADR it can make a big difference whether you buy that or buy on the home-country exchange.  That’s because, as I understand, there’s a fixed set of shares bundled into ADRs and the number of such shares doesn’t generally change, so the ADR can be bid up higher, or drop lower, than the home-country price.  For example, right now TSM ADRs trade at around 18% premium to the shares in Taiwan (ticker 2330); in recent years the premium has mostly been 5-10%.
 

But FRFHF is not an ADR, it’s just regular FFH.TO shares that have made their way to the US, so no such issue.

 

The # of ADRs are fixed and the # of shares backing them are fixed so the ratio remains constant, but ADRs CAN trade at wide premiums or discounts to the underlying security of the issuing bank isn't engaging in the creation/redemption of the ADRs units so that the different can be arbitraged. 

 

I'm not 100% sure what drives whether the banks are engaged in issuing/destroying ADR units, but there are ADRs that do trade at premiums/discounts in periods where the sponsoring bank closes that ability to arbitrage.  

 

1 hour ago, gfp said:

These guys are just like MicroStrategy - the higher their stock price goes the higher the intrinsic value of the company

 

Please don't make me hate FFH with this thesis. 

 

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

These are monster gain today (+8%).

 

I think I am going to treat myself a pumpkin spice latte (w/o whipped cream) tomorrow at SBUX as a pad on the shoulder. After a healthy run of course. 

 

Right? It finally seems like the stock is actually responsive to earnings announcements now! A few hundred million tacked onto Q4 earnings as a result a la the TRS. Brilliant!

 

21 minutes ago, Santayana said:

He's drinking heavily with Brett Horn.  Unless the entire short attack was just a ploy get himself a better entry point to go long!

 

He might have been the one pushing it up today trying to exit? Though he should've exited as soon as it was clear his thesis on the aggressive accounting was bunk when Digit IPOd...

[gfp]

4 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

He might have been the one pushing it up today trying to exit? Though he should've exited as soon as it was clear his thesis on the aggressive accounting was bunk when Digit IPOd...

you know he's holding out for that brutal EXCO write-down

[dartmonkey]

2 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

He might have been the one pushing it up today trying to exit? Though he should've exited as soon as it was clear his thesis on the aggressive accounting was bunk when Digit IPOd...

You are being generous. I think it was pretty clear that it was bunk right from the beginning. Although Fairfax has had a few valuation marks that, taken in isolation, seem a bit aggressive (marking up holdings when they buy shares from Teachers, for instance and MAYBE Digit, since no one really knew what fair value was), taken as a whole, they clearly have a lot of holdings that are priced way below fair value too, and in any case, the earnings are the earnings.

 

The Digit IPO was just the final proof that even the plausible sounding criticisms were way off the mark.

 

It's a shame for Muddy Waters - they serve a useful purpose and have a pretty good track record of finding real fraud, so there was no need for them to muddy their record by throwing dirt at a good firm. But I was happy to see that Fairfax responded well, calmly refuting the accusations and showing that there is no need to get upset. Fairfax has not been harmed and is arguably more immune to a similar attack in the future than if they hadn't weathered this one.

[Masterofnone]

What a gift it was that Muddy Waters issued that shoddy slash and run report! It was a great example of the value of knowing what you own. Many of us picked up shares that day on the cheap.

+46% or so in about 9 months.

Thanks Carson!

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, dartmonkey said:

You are being generous. I think it was pretty clear that it was bunk right from the beginning. Although Fairfax has had a few valuation marks that, taken in isolation, seem a bit aggressive (marking up holdings when they buy shares from Teachers, for instance and MAYBE Digit, since no one really knew what fair value was), taken as a whole, they clearly have a lot of holdings that are priced way below fair value too, and in any case, the earnings are the earnings.

 

The Digit IPO was just the final proof that even the plausible sounding criticisms were way off the mark.

 

It's a shame for Muddy Waters - they serve a useful purpose and have a pretty good track record of finding real fraud, so there was no need for them to muddy their record by throwing dirt at a good firm. But I was happy to see that Fairfax responded well, calmly refuting the accusations and showing that there is no need to get upset. Fairfax has not been harmed and is arguably more immune to a similar attack in the future than if they hadn't weathered this one.

Why are folks complaining about MW?  Personally, I wish they'd come back - it provided a great opportunity.  BTW, how do you measure  ROI on the TRS?   Has to be one of the all-time great trades/investments so far.

[Saluki]

Great quarter and CC.  After the beating that JOE has been taking, and the nice pop today on Fairfax, FFH is now my 3rd biggest position.  Like sports rankings, I hope that my other stocks see how well Fairfax did and try harder to move up the rankings in my portfolio. There is still 2 months until the end of the year, and I'd like to see them all put out their best efforts to make it to the playoffs. 

[Hoodlum]

12 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Right? It finally seems like the stock is actually responsive to earnings announcements now! A few hundred million tacked onto Q4 earnings as a result a la the TRS. Brilliant!

 

 

It is the gift the keeps on giving.  The stock market response on the day of the conference call was very refreshing, along with the 2x avg volume.

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, Redskin212 said:

At one point today FFH was up US$90 to US$1,330, which is for all the old timers here was the price we could buy the stock one day back in June 2006 - 18 years ago.  I purchase a couple hundred shares that day at $90.17, so today's gain is kind of breathtaking!  Not to mention the fact, I probably have received well over $90 in dividends over the 18 years.  

 

The power of compounding!  Cheers!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

Why are folks complaining about MW?  Personally, I wish they'd come back - it provided a great opportunity.  BTW, how do you measure  ROI on the TRS?   Has to be one of the all-time great trades/investments so far.

 

Hard to measure an ROI on something that basically has no upfront cost, but ongoing cash draws. 

 

In Fairfax case, it's basically infinite because it's only been up since they opened it. 

[Thrifty3000]

I took the day off to play golf. Did I miss anything? 

[yesman182]

I’m sure this isn’t news to anyone who followed this name closely, but it was news to me that Fairfax has had 17 years in a row with favorable reserve developments.