Looks Like A Tough Hurricane Season

[SafetyinNumbers]

Some estimates are for as high as $110b now but not sure what portion of that will be insured.

 

https://www.inc.com/reuters/hurricane-helene-damages-range-between-95-110-billion.html

[Parsad]

13 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Some estimates are for as high as $110b now but not sure what portion of that will be insured.

 

https://www.inc.com/reuters/hurricane-helene-damages-range-between-95-110-billion.html

 

I think that Accuweather estimate is way higher than what the losses will be.  The $5B number someone provided earlier was far too low, but I think this thing is in the $35-50B range of losses. 

 

A ton of water damage occurred which tends to make losses higher.  But over $100B would be excessive as it missed most major cities.  A few degrees this way or that and I could see it hitting the $100B+ number, but we got a bit lucky believe it or not.  It also weakened dramatically as it hit land, but that meant more rain damage and less wind damage. 

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, Parsad said:

 

I think that Accuweather estimate is way higher than what the losses will be.  The $5B number someone provided earlier was far too low, but I think this thing is in the $35-50B range of losses. 

 

A ton of water damage occurred which tends to make losses higher.  But over $100B would be excessive as it missed most major cities.  A few degrees this way or that and I could see it hitting the $100B+ number, but we got a bit lucky believe it or not.  It also weakened dramatically as it hit land, but that meant more rain damage and less wind damage. 

 

Cheers!

 

Here you go...a reasonable estimate from a group that specialize in this:

 

https://www.artemis.bm/news/hurricane-helene-economic-loss-in-20bn-34bn-range-moodys-analytics/

 

I personally think it will be on the high side of that estimate...there was considerable water damage in a very large swath of territories.  Cheers!

[glider3834]

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Here you go...a reasonable estimate from a group that specialize in this:

 

https://www.artemis.bm/news/hurricane-helene-economic-loss-in-20bn-34bn-range-moodys-analytics/

 

I personally think it will be on the high side of that estimate...there was considerable water damage in a very large swath of territories.  Cheers!

looks like Moodys insured loss estimate still to come

 

'In terms of insured losses, Moody’s says it remains too early to put a precise cost on the storm, but the Moody’s RMS Event Response team will be releasing an estimate in the coming weeks.'

 

It looks like Gallagher re have upped their estimate for insured loss range to mid to high single digit billions  https://www.artemis.bm/news/hurricane-helene-private-insurance-loss-seen-mid-to-high-single-digit-billions-bowen-gallagher-re/ & made these comments 

 

'The overall economic loss is going to be well beyond $10 billion. Very limited flood insurance take-up in far inland areas is going to mean a large portion of damage will be uninsured. NFIP coverage limits (Residential: $250k structure / $100k contents + Commercial: $500k structure / $500k contents) will in many cases mean properties will not be fully insured against incurred damage. The gap between the overall direct economic cost and the portion covered by private / public insurance for Helene will be sizeable; similar to other historical flood-driven hurricane events.'

 

 

Edited Monday at 10:57 AM by glider3834

[Hoodlum]

While not impacting reinsurance directly, the scale of the water damage was massive.

 

https://www.artemis.bm/news/hurricane-helene-floods-over-100k-buildings-at-least-10k-to-over-5-feet-iceye/

 

Quote

According to analysis from ICEYE, the provider of satellite data and services to inform decision-making and analysis, hurricane Helene’s flooding saw over 100,000 buildings impacted, with more than 10,000 of those being inundated to flood depths of greater than 5 feet.

 

[Hoodlum]

I periodically look at the daily Atlantic Sea temperature to look for any trends.  I noticed today that the data hasn't been updated since last week and then noticed the following tidbit on that site.  I guess they never had any disaster recovery plan.  I don't think we will see data being updated for a while as Ashville was heavily impacted.

 

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2

 

Quote

The OISST data on this page are sourced from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) data center located in Asheville, North Carolina, one of many communities severely impacted by heavy rainfall and historic flooding associated with Hurricane Helene. The NCEI data center has been offline since September 27th, and it is uncertain when service can be restored.

 

[SharperDingaan]

You might want to keep in mind that while this was bad, it would seem to just be the start for the US/Canadian East Coast. It is now an above average season, Kirk and Leslie are on their way, the Atlantic is still very warm, and there is still 2 months to go. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-officially-142154996.html

 

Sadly, there is a need to make projection. Assume a 35B loss on this event, plus another similar event for each of the next 2 months (conservative?); and cumulative losses could well exceed 1B+ before Christmas.

 

Should FFH have around 1% of the loss ...  around year-end there's an extraordinary announcement of 100M+ in related charges. Thereafter FFH goes ex-dividend around Jan-17, further lowering the share price an additional USD 15. Hence, we have put our swing trade on.

 

Hopefully we've overly pessimistic.

 

SD

 

 

[dartmonkey]

37 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Sadly, there is a need to make projection. Assume a 35B loss on this event, plus another similar event for each of the next 2 months (conservative?); and cumulative losses could well exceed 1B+ before Christmas.

 

Should FFH have around 1% of the loss ...  around year-end there's an extraordinary announcement of 100M+ in related charges. Thereafter FFH goes ex-dividend around Jan-17, further lowering the share price an additional USD 15. Hence, we have put our swing trade on.

 

Hopefully we've overly pessimistic.

I should say. Insured losses for Helene are currently estimated at $6.5b, with not much preceding it, and we are 2/3 of the way through the season, so a central estimate of about $100b for the whole season does seem a tad on the high side.

[cwericb]

Just my 2 cents worth, but it looks like Kirk and Leslie are headed north towards Europe and should settle down before doing any serious damage. Also, a serious hurricane in November would be somewhat of a rarity, however waters are warmer. Since hurricanes are now travelling further north, if we can just get a hard frost it will take a lot of the leaves off the trees and that would considerably reduce damage, plus a lot of the weaker trees have already fallen from previous hurricanes. The optimistic view.

[SharperDingaan]

We just see it as a grey swan ....  an event that is known and possible to happen, but which is assumed to be unlikely to occur (Wikipedia). As being on the wrong side of the assumption could really screw up our day, a swing trade is just smart insurance.

 

A downgraded hurricane is still a lot of water/wind, no matter where it comes ashore. Atlantic Canada will be primarily covered by Canadian re insurers. The Canaries and the Azores are European holiday destinations akin to North America and the Caribbean, and will be primarily covered by European re insurers ...... significant weather events going north and east are still going to cost.   

 

All that one can really do is hope for the best,  prepare for the worst;

and try to always live on high ground away from the coast!.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 23 hours ago by SharperDingaan

[Jaygo]

Next one looks like in has the Tampa Bay area as a possible landfall.