IF the ETF approved, will you make Bitcoin a NEW position?

[ValueArb]

13 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Sure. Doesn't mean it doesn't apply.

 

What do you believe will happen to gold now that Bitcoin might compete with it as a store of value?

 

Can you do better than guess?

 

Nope because Gold has actual utility in industry, in jewelry, etc. I have no ability to predict whether BTC will impact it at all.

[rkbabang]

18 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Nope because Gold has actual utility in industry, in jewelry, etc. I have no ability to predict whether BTC will impact it at all.

 

Yes, and once its monetary premium is diminished gold will be priced mostly for its utility in industry, much like what gold did to silver.

 

Edited January 11 by rkbabang

[jks327]

No

[mattee2264]

There is a funny twitter post summarizing the bull case:

 

Millennials holding 50% of their net worth in bitcoin = $2,500

Boomers holding 5% of their net worth in bitcoin = $250,000

 

 

[rkbabang]

36 minutes ago, mattee2264 said:

There is a funny twitter post summarizing the bull case:

 

Millennials holding 50% of their net worth in bitcoin = $2,500

Boomers holding 5% of their net worth in bitcoin = $250,000

 

 

 

That's one of those "It's funny because it's true" jokes.  Although it's a bit of an exaggeration at each end.  The average boomer isn't worth $5M and the average millennial is worth more than $5k.

[alxcii]

10 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Sorry buster - the DOJ brought down Binance and met the exact conditions I stated was the barrier to an ETF approval and was the basis underpinning my 0% approval odds...that 0% was based on the Binance/offshore market status quo.....go look over my posts I couldnt have been clearer on that.......which were numerous on the Binance & the surveillance on spot market problem that made approval back then an impossibility. The day Binance died, our bet died.

 

Like you do know what happened a month or so ago well in advance of the ETF approval? I'm sure you were following......... yep you guessed it.....Binance guilty plea deal to the DOJ & treasury charges & CZ's surrender.....following this Binance shockingly capitulated and agreed to allowing DOJ to put Binance into FULL US government MONITORSHIP.....unbelievable capitualtion......which amounts to US government contractors (most likely audit & accountancy professional paid for by Binance but working for the DOJ) sitting inside Binance offices/system reporting daily everything back to DOJ, treasury and the SEC in real time re: trading activity & Binance's customer activity.

 

So - you didn't understand my posts back then I think and so i guess you didn't understand the significance of the Binance takedown in November and its influence on this spot approval.....I could go dig up the posts highlighting my repeated linking to the Binance problem in the spot market to the approval odds.....our little 'bet' was off the day Binance the criminal enterprise ended & basically gave the US government a front row seat & data pipe to everything happening inside Binance and by extension the majority of the spot market trading volume.

 

Tell you what -  I'll dig up my posts to help you @alxcii not feel so hard done by and as a show of good will - here's the most succinct one in all its predictive glory (but the posts were numerous on the Binance problem):

 

 

To quote myself from that June 2023 post above-  I couldnt have been any clearer or any more accurate in setting out what would need to change for an approval. Spoiler alert what I said needed to change did change in the US vs. Binance criminal case:

 

"Underlying spot BTC market volume dominated as it is by offshore exchanges is the barrier here.

 

You’ve got a chicken and egg problem for the SEC to ever approve a BTC ETF. End of story.

 

Right now the spot BTC market volume is dominated by a long list of extremely dodgy entities….the 800ilb gorilla @ 62% share (Binance) has just been charged by the SEC with about the most heinous crimes an exchange/FS entity can be accused of.

 

Until centralized BTC exchange market volume tilts in a 60 or 70% way to respectable entities in the US or EU…then the spot ETF is never happening. How could it? The spot market is dominated by nefarious actors completely outside the purview of any regulatory agency that the SEC respects. Tell me that in 2025 BTC centralized volume market share will hit 75% for Coinbase, Paxos, Gemini & Kraken then we can have a conversation about a spot ETF approval until then it’s a pipe dream."

 

Well as I said above back in June Binance was an 800ilb barrier to approval........and the US government in November made that 800ilb offshore gorilla Binance its bitch!.......and in doing so.......the centralized BTC exchange market volume DID indeed tilt in a 60 or 70% way (more like 80%) to the very conditions I'd set for a BTC-ETF approval...which is to say that TODAY entities under the complete surveillance, control and dominance of the United States & Europe have deeply deeply significant KYC & transaction volume visibility into BTC land......allowing the SEC to finally approve.

 

I'll also drop another insight for you as the BTC crew celebrate what is surely a blasphemous outcome for Satoshi and his true followers.......BTC, if you haven't got the memo, is now highly centralized with big finance overlords like BlackRock likely to dominate the space with the majority of volume and visibility down to the transaction layer (as I just outlined) sitting under US government ownership & surveillance..... the US government has just unbelievable visibility into BTC land now & big finance has its claws into the fee income........Satoshi must be rolling in his grave.....lots of his supposed true followers have shown themselves to be fakers.....so willing were they to embrace whatever was needed to get US government approval for an ETF........they showed themselves to be nothing more than 'number goes up' crypto Judases...betraying Satoshi in the ETF garden for a few satchels of silver

 

Today wasnt the start of something for BTC.......it was the end.

 

The greedy BTC crew like Cathy Woods just handed the US government the keys to the kingdom for a few gold coins.....and BTC in exchange lost all its outsider libertarian characteristics......its just another piece of financial infrastructure (like the swift payment system) dominated and controlled by the US government. You do get that @alxcii right? - Binance is under severe and total US monitorship, Coinbase/Kraken are onshore & KYC/AML/IRS information printers....and most importantly SAR prisoners, BlackRock for gods sake is likely to become the largest holder of BTC by volume......the US gov just turned BTC in so many ways into..... how would crypto people say it......BTC is just another mechanism through which the "corrupt" US government and elites subjugate the masses. It was meant to be so much more.

 

It's kind of masterful what they've done....that good old US government.......what did Macheivil say all those years ago:

 

"The best way to deal with an enemy is to make him a friend." - Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince

 

The naive BTC'ers think the US government somehow capitulated today and became BTC's friend......I'm afraid not......the US gov just put BTC under its conservatorship & stewardship......BTC servies at the pleasure of the D.C. now.

 

All the love out there for the US gov approval for BTC also kind of reminds of the deeply melancholy end of 1984 with poor Winston Smith succumbing to the overlords.....I swear I thought I heard some gin soaked tears on twitter spaces earlier:

“He gazed up at the enormous face. Forty years it had taken him to learn what kind of smile was hidden beneath the dark moustache. O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself.

 

He loved Big Brother.”

 

― George Orwell, 1984

 

it took Winston 40yrs to break.....BTC broke and sold itself down the river to Big Brother in 15yrs.....for all the early fire and fury I expected a bit longer. Oh well.

 

In another universe we could have been two intellectually honest speculators, gaming out possible scenarios and shaping each others' convictions as we learn from each other. Instead we have you, a self-professed tourist in this space, trying to jiu jitsu a victory out of this instead of taking the L. I am seriously impressed at what mental gymnastics you had to go through to come back with a doctoral thesis about why you weren't utterly wrong.

 

I was looking forward to adding another couple satoshis to my stack but thanks for the entertainment anyways.

 

 

 

 

Narrator: ...he was not a man of his word.

 

[james22]

Just tried to buy in my Vanguard account.

 

Got the message: 

 

Trade cannot be completed

Buy orders are not currently accepted for this security. Securities may be unavailable for purchase at Vanguard due to a number of variables including regulatory restrictions, corporate actions, or various trading and/or settlement limitations.

 

Gave them a call and was told they aren't setup to transact them and it may take several weeks (!) before they can.

 

Unbelievable.

 

Checked the Bogleheads forum and someone said they were told by Vanguard it was against their buy-and-hold philosophy and they wouldn't be offering it.

 

Called back and was told the same.

 

Fuckers.

 

I'll be transferring my account.

[rkbabang]

3 minutes ago, james22 said:

Just tried to buy in my Vanguard account.

 

Got the message: 

 

Trade cannot be completed

Buy orders are not currently accepted for this security. Securities may be unavailable for purchase at Vanguard due to a number of variables including regulatory restrictions, corporate actions, or various trading and/or settlement limitations.

 

Gave them a call and was told they aren't setup to transact them and it may take several weeks (!) before they can.

 

Unbelievable.

 

Checked the Bogleheads forum and someone said they were told by Vanguard it was against their buy-and-hold philosophy and they wouldn't be offering it.

 

Called back and was told the same.

 

Fuckers.

 

I'll be transferring my account.

I'm still holding most of the Bitcoin I bought 10 years ago.  I know people who have been holding longer than me.  How is BTC not compatible with a buy-and-hold philosophy?  Idiots.

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

29 minutes ago, alxcii said:

 

In another universe we could have been two intellectually honest speculators, gaming out possible scenarios and shaping each others' convictions as we learn from each other. Instead we have you, a self-professed tourist in this space, trying to jiu jitsu a victory out of this instead of taking the L. I am seriously impressed at what mental gymnastics you had to go through to come back with a doctoral thesis about why you weren't utterly wrong.

 

I was looking forward to adding another couple satoshis to my stack but thanks for the entertainment anyways.

 

 

 

 

Narrator: ...he was not a man of his word.

 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

17 minutes ago, james22 said:

Just tried to buy in my Vanguard account.

 

Got the message: 

 

Trade cannot be completed

Buy orders are not currently accepted for this security. Securities may be unavailable for purchase at Vanguard due to a number of variables including regulatory restrictions, corporate actions, or various trading and/or settlement limitations.

 

Gave them a call and was told they aren't setup to transact them and it may take several weeks (!) before they can.

 

Unbelievable.

 

Checked the Bogleheads forum and someone said they were told by Vanguard it was against their buy-and-hold philosophy and they wouldn't be offering it.

 

Called back and was told the same.

 

Fuckers.

 

I'll be transferring my account.

 

This reminds me of the firm I work for. 

 

12-18 months ago, there was an internal educational seminar for employees on several of our products, returns, and outlook for markets. Someone asked if we would ever have research, opinions, and products on BTC now that the futures ETF has been trading for a bit. 

 

I remember everyone on stage being very smug and commenting about how our clients had benefitted from not having access since it was down 60+% over the preceding year. 

 

What wasn't said that even measuring it at that bottom point of the -60% (then) drawdown, it had still outperformed every other asset class on their performance board over 3-, 5-, and 10-year periods. 

 

Some people just can't be intellectually honest with themselves because it means admitting that they missed the boat. 

[Libs]

Shameless brag, I bought some BTC years ago for $200...22 bags later, it's grown to a 2% position. Had I not stupidly sold half of them when it went to $400, it would be a 4% position.

 

So to answer OP's question, I am making it a 4% position today via the Fidelity ETF. Ran it by the wife and she agreed. 

[KCLarkin]

1 hour ago, rkbabang said:

I'm still holding most of the Bitcoin I bought 10 years ago.  I know people who have been holding longer than me.  How is BTC not compatible with a buy-and-hold philosophy?  Idiots.

 

 

Bogle didn't think ETFs were compatible with a buy-and-hold philosophy (and he is correct though the other advantages make up for this).

 

It Boggles my mind that people on this forum don't understand Vanguard. One of the most important financial institutions of all time.

Edited January 11 by KCLarkin

[KCLarkin]

To answer the original question, ETF approval increases the likelihood I will start a position in BTC to 0.1%. The fact that Coinbase is the likely custodian knocks that back down to 0.001%.

 

The main use case for BTC (other than speculation and illicit activities) is theft and fraud. Having Blackrock as a sponsor does allay most of those concerns.

 

---

But, I want to own great businesses. I don't have any interest in bonds, gold, commodities, art, or collectibles. 

 

For me, the best thing about Crypto is that it diverts many of the speculators away from high quality businesses. The fact that y'all are getting rich quick off of Beenz 2.0 doesn't bother me. I'm okay getting rich slowly...

 

---

Disclosure: I'm from the dotcom, Beanie Babies, Pogs generation. I'll let you get rich off your very wise investments in BTC. I just prefer great businesses at reasonable prices.

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, alxcii said:

In another universe we could have been two intellectually honest speculators, gaming out possible scenarios and shaping each others' convictions as we learn from each other. Instead we have you, a self-professed tourist in this space, trying to jiu jitsu a victory out of this instead of taking the L

 

Your right - send me me your dets on DM....and let me help you stack them satoshis a little bit. Sound fair?

[ValueArb]

From Crenshaws dissent on authorizing the ETF.

 

Quote

 

Spot bitcoin markets are subject to fraud and manipulation. One form of manipulation that appears to be pervasive in the crypto markets (and specifically bitcoin markets), is wash trading, a practice whereby traders seek to increase the appearance of high trading interest by both selling and buying the same products at the same time, often driving up prices, and then selling to unwitting third party market participants at inflated values. Wash trading distorts price and volume, causes volatility, reduces investor confidence and participation in financial markets, and of course, results in investor harm. One analysis of 29 major crypto exchanges found that wash trading was, on average, as high as 77.5% of the total trading volume on unregulated exchanges. ...

 

Specifically with regard to bitcoin, an analysis of 157 crypto exchanges found that 51% of the reported daily bitcoin trading volume was likely bogus. In fact, though reporting regarding bitcoin frequently discusses the enormous size of the market, one market participant who now seeks to sponsor a spot bitcoin ETP has admitted that “approximately 95%” of the data used by many participants are “fake and/or non-economic.” … In short, prices and demand for bitcoin may not actually be what they appear to be

 

 

[Dave86ch]

23 hours ago, Luca said:

What wealth gain will the bottom 50%  get with bitcoin over the lets say next 5-10 years when it will replace the dollar and why? What do you mean by this new "freedom"? How will lives changes for people that had their money invested in assets before anyways? (stock based pension fund, owning house etc)?

If you own bitcoin why would you "move your wealth"? Isn't decentralization making that unnecessary? 

Okay, most people invest in assets anyway? Will cash (bitcoin) be now better than assets? Why?

Will the state not be able to get any taxes anymore when the bitcoiners replace the dollar? How will the country function?

 

My opinion is that western countries are in a similar situation as the shrinking Byzantine Empire, their devalued their currency as the Empire did and they are under many sieges. Now in between the empire there a new monetary forms which challanges a Solidus which less and less denominated by a unit of energy or work and more and more by illusions and lies.

The social welfare systems of many countries are under pressure, and these countries are in a fiscal trap, which now presents an opportunity for individuals to escape.

[james22]

Anyone else change their mind?

 

On 1/10/2024 at 2:08 PM, james22 said:

I'm unconvinced myself if it's an asset class, but I'll probably commit a couple percent to it anyway.

 

I'm now convinced and at 10%, planning to go to 15% tomorrow.

 

Not often a new asset class is created.

[Paarslaars]

When I looked into Bitcoin and started reading the recommended material here, I took 10% position. Not planning on increasing this simply because of risk management but will hold when it grows.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

23 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

When I looked into Bitcoin and started reading the recommended material here, I took 10% position. Not planning on increasing this simply because of risk management but will hold when it grows.

 

 

 

Welcome to being orange pilled

[james22]

On 1/10/2024 at 11:22 AM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

I think you'll find answers here a little biased given that's it's traditionally a value investor forum and often times that favors the status quo and eschews new/exciting/sexy type investments. 

 

With companies like Blackrock and Fidelity advising that it's a new asset class and recommending allocations of 1-5% to it, I think you'll see plenty of passive flows over time as firms update their asset allocation models/guidance and delegated accounts get allocated to the ETFs. 

 

Not sure if the responses you see here will be what is matched in reality. 

 

This thread pretty good evidence we're still very, very early?

 

Value investor or not, this is still an individual investment forum, one that recognizes "special situations."

 

If BTC has no interest here (yet), imagine how far behind most index investors are.

 

Unacceptable Topics

 

Greater Fool Investing Strategies

Eventually, one runs out of greater fools. - Burton Malkiel

Discussions of investment strategies based on securities or physical assets that have no underlying value or negative expected long term returns are prohibited. Examples include: cryptocurrencies; lottery tickets; tulip bulbs; Ponzi, pyramid, and multi-level marketing schemes; affinity frauds; and market manipulation schemes.

 

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/rules

 

LOL

[Sweet]

23 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

This thread pretty good evidence we're still very, very early?

 

Value investor or not, this is still an individual investment forum, one that recognizes "special situations."

 

If BTC has no interest here (yet), imagine how far behind most index investors are.

 

Unacceptable Topics

 

Greater Fool Investing Strategies

Eventually, one runs out of greater fools. - Burton Malkiel

Discussions of investment strategies based on securities or physical assets that have no underlying value or negative expected long term returns are prohibited. Examples include: cryptocurrencies; lottery tickets; tulip bulbs; Ponzi, pyramid, and multi-level marketing schemes; affinity frauds; and market manipulation schemes.

 

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/rules

 

LOL

A couple of years ago I had all sorts of people telling me they owned crypto.  Mail man, guy who did building work around the house, most shocking of all was a few girls in work.  I asked each of them whether they owned stocks and none did, one even replied they were too risky.  This a long way of saying that I don’t think Bitcoin is in the early adoption phase as all.

[james22]

22 minutes ago, Sweet said:

A couple of years ago I had all sorts of people telling me they owned crypto.  Mail man, guy who did building work around the house, most shocking of all was a few girls in work.  I asked each of them whether they owned stocks and none did, one even replied they were too risky.  This a long way of saying that I don’t think Bitcoin is in the early adoption phase as all.

 

There certainly was awareness during the last run-up.

 

 

But less so this time.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

4 hours ago, Sweet said:

A couple of years ago I had all sorts of people telling me they owned crypto.  Mail man, guy who did building work around the house, most shocking of all was a few girls in work.  I asked each of them whether they owned stocks and none did, one even replied they were too risky.  This a long way of saying that I don’t think Bitcoin is in the early adoption phase as all.

 

1) most of the people I knew buying crypto in 2020/2021 weren't buying Bitcoin. They were shilling shit coins like Doge and Shiba Inu trying to find the next Bitcoin thinking they'd already missed the boat on that since it was already 30-40k. Now the vast majority of those coins are down 90+% whole BTC is in reach of it's ATH

 

2) while BTC isn't new, most people don't understand it, don't allocate to it, and don't recognize it's value. We still have to have conversations why it's not great for criminal activity and why it's unreasonable to assume 100% of the world's electricity will be used for mining in 5 years which are the same tired arguments that I was making in 2018 before being orange pilled myself.

 

We're still very early in the adoption trend even if the technology isn't quite new any longer. 

 

Edited February 20 by TwoCitiesCapital

[james22]

11 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

We're still very early in the adoption trend even if the technology isn't quite new any longer. 

 

As I believe I mentioned in the MSTR thread, maybe it helps to think of the ETF approval as the Bitcoin IPO? It was certainly uninvestable for me before then.

 

But even better, because we can see how it's performed despite the difficulty acquiring and holding, the off-putting cultism, the naive hype, the Fudd resistance, the threat of being outlawed, the bad actors, the fraud, etc. - all the fear, uncertainty, and doubt. 

[Sweet]

9 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

1) most of the people I knew buying crypto in 2020/2021 weren't buying Bitcoin. They were shilling shit coins like Doge and Shiba Inu trying to find the next Bitcoin thinking they'd already missed the boat on that since it was already 30-40k. Now the vast majority of those coins are down 90+% whole BTC is in reach of it's ATH

 

2) while BTC isn't new, most people don't understand it, don't allocate to it, and don't recognize it's value. We still have to have conversations why it's not great for criminal activity and why it's unreasonable to assume 100% of the world's electricity will be used for mining in 5 years which are the same tired arguments that I was making in 2018 before being orange pilled myself.

 

We're still very early in the adoption trend even if the technology isn't quite new any longer. 

 

 

 

That’s correct, many weren’t buying Bitcoin, but they were buying the other crypto because of Bitcoin and its explosion in price.

 

Sure they don’t know the nuts and bolts of it in the same way you do but they definitely do understand the basics.

 

I disagree that it’s the early phase of adoption.  I don’t understand how this is still an argument for a 15 year old coin that every Tom, Dick and Harry on the make was trying to own (or an alternative to it) just a few years ago.

 

I mean come on, we have a goddam ETF now.  It doesn’t get much more mainstream than that.

 

Edited February 20 by Sweet