-Your best investments for 2024 and beyond-

[CorpRaider]

On 12/23/2023 at 6:00 PM, Gregmal said:

Yo LOL.

 

One of those two I’ve been buying a lot of lately and totally agree. 

ICE ICE baby?

[valueventures]

Safe stock: NNI. Good value here after trailing the market in 2023. Sizable position for me

Riskier stock: GLASF. Expecting rescheduling ahead of the election

Edited December 27, 2023 by valueventures

[shhughes1116]

On 12/24/2023 at 11:34 AM, SharperDingaan said:

Not for beginners; but if you have the risk tolerance, liquidity, TFSA capacity, want to practice your risk management, and are predatory nimble .....  4-6 year play - at the end of which you might have enough to buy a modest house outright, tax free 

 

Lot of ugly's in this, not particularly well run, and there are better quality choices at higher prices. But Lenny, .... if you can afford 100,000-125,000 shares today, and the dog eventually gets to $4.00, 5 years out .... 400-500K is a worthy prize. The hope is that somebody takes CET out before then, and most likely in the next cycle.

 

We own a few shares, with a cost base in the low cents after swing trades.

https://www.cathedralenergyservices.com/

 

SD

When I was reading through this, I had flashbacks to Enterprise Group.

 

Cathedral looks pretty interesting, and I am a sucker for the type of acquisition strategy they are pursuing.  

[bargainman]

On 12/22/2023 at 7:41 AM, rkbabang said:

Nancy Pelosi votes $NVDA for 2024. She just bought 50 Dec 24 NVDA $120 strike calls.  I'd be more bullish if she bought out of the money calls, but still, maybe she knows something we don't.

 

 

 

That's very deep in the money, may as well be just a buy.  Amusingly there's an ETF called NANC that's tracking democratic congress purchase.  There's one for the Republicans too.

[dpetrescu]

My two best ideas going forward are the same as last year:

 

1. SSD - Simpson

this company continues to amaze me. Perfect for a 50 year holding. Just one minor note… being such a wonderful company, it is today very very highly valued after a couple big corrections. So you might need to deal with a 30% to 40% correction in 2024. Aside from that technicality, it will continue to be my 75% holding and I will just keep buying in 2024  . If we ever have a world war 3, Simpson will also act as a complimentary sleep aid - will help you sleep through worst of times worry free.

 

2. ADSK - Autodesk

This will continue to be the Robin to the Batman in my portfolio for 2024 These two together will continue to make up 95% of my portfolio. Another wonderful company. While many know about its strong competitive advantage - I’ve reached the conclusion that even the most fancy of analysts don’t truly understand the depth of that advantage. Stock price has been miraculously flat for a few years but we might be seeing a breakout. Also of note a minor detail - the share price is veeerreyyy! expensive. But then again - if you’re like me and planning to hold it for 20 years, then it makes sense and I also just keep buying this one and can’t wait to keep buying in 2024. And I hope this one also sees a 30 - 40% correction in 2024 but I’m not waiting for it. The big risk with this one: still not sure how the decline in demand for new commercial office buildings could impact it over the next decades. With some decent percentage working from home currently and that percentage likely to grow over time. This is the big unknown for me. 

 

Bonus idea:

I hate to be obvious but yes…Alibaba. I’m hoping to scrape up some funds to maybe make this a minor #3 in the new year? Not sure yet…maybe for 4%? Reminds me of the cake in the trash Seinfeld episode - it’s a perfectly good piece of cake thrown in the trash. Everyone is just to scared to pick it up. Maybe 2024 is the year of George?

 

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by dpetrescu

[brobro777]

On 12/27/2023 at 10:27 PM, dpetrescu said:

My two best ideas going forward are the same as last year:

 

1. SSD - Simpson

this company continues to amaze me. Perfect for a 50 year holding. Just one minor note… being such a wonderful company, it is today very very highly valued after a couple big corrections. So you might need to deal with a 30% to 40% correction in 2024. Aside from that technicality, it will continue to be my 75% holding and I will just keep buying in 2024  . If we ever have a world war 3, Simpson will also act as a complimentary sleep aid - will help you sleep through worst of times worry free.

 

2. ADSK - Autodesk

This will continue to be the Robin to the Batman in my portfolio for 2024 These two together will continue to make up 95% of my portfolio. Another wonderful company. While many know about its strong competitive advantage - I’ve reached the conclusion that even the most fancy of analysts don’t truly understand the depth of that advantage. Stock price has been miraculously flat for a few years but we might be seeing a breakout. Also of note a minor detail - the share price is veeerreyyy! expensive. But then again - if you’re like me and planning to hold it for 20 years, then it makes sense and I also just keep buying this one and can’t wait to keep buying in 2024. And I hope this one also sees a 30 - 40% correction in 2024 but I’m not waiting for it. The big risk with this one: still not sure how the decline in demand for new commercial office buildings could impact it over the next decades. With some decent percentage working from home currently and that percentage likely to grow over time. This is the big unknown for me. 

 

Bonus idea:

I hate to be obvious but yes…Alibaba. I’m hoping to scrape up some funds to maybe make this a minor #3 in the new year? Not sure yet…maybe for 4%? Reminds me of the cake in the trash Seinfeld episode - it’s a perfectly good piece of cake thrown in the trash. Everyone is just to scared to pick it up. Maybe 2024 is the year of George?

 

 

 

ADSK! I read about the company from this scuttleblurb guy that I think does good research: https://scuttleblurb.substack.com/p/adsk-dassault-ptc-simulation-cad

 

I think you're right, it seems like ADSK probably has the customers in that industry by the b...

 

 

[ICUMD]

BABA

Fairfax India

[Paarslaars]

On 12/22/2023 at 3:18 PM, rkbabang said:

 

 

No problem.  I hold a larger position in actual coins, but I hold MSTR in my IRA.  There is no way easy way to buy the actual coins in a retirement account which is what led me to look into MSTR in the first place.  While I like to self custody as a safe guard against societal-level troubles, I think MSTR is a pretty good way to gain Bitcoin exposure too.  And will even outperform Bitcoin itself in some time periods.

 

 

 

I was thinking this was a great way to invest in Bitcoin with leverage by using options. Then I saw the option prices . 

[Gregmal]

I like what I have still but outside of Nintendo nothing screams catalyst upcoming. I did also recently buy a lot of EBay which I’d probably say would be my candidate for having a crazy good 2024. The amount of stock they’re buying back, the sale proceeds plus remaining 20% stake in Adevinta, plus the FCF from existing biz….something gives at some point. 

[Libs]

On 12/27/2023 at 10:27 PM, dpetrescu said:

My two best ideas going forward are the same as last year:

 

1. SSD - Simpson

this company continues to amaze me. Perfect for a 50 year holding. Just one minor note… being such a wonderful company, it is today very very highly valued after a couple big corrections. So you might need to deal with a 30% to 40% correction in 2024. Aside from that technicality, it will continue to be my 75% holding and I will just keep buying in 2024  . If we ever have a world war 3, Simpson will also act as a complimentary sleep aid - will help you sleep through worst of times worry free.

 

2. ADSK - Autodesk

This will continue to be the Robin to the Batman in my portfolio for 2024 These two together will continue to make up 95% of my portfolio. Another wonderful company. While many know about its strong competitive advantage - I’ve reached the conclusion that even the most fancy of analysts don’t truly understand the depth of that advantage. Stock price has been miraculously flat for a few years but we might be seeing a breakout. Also of note a minor detail - the share price is veeerreyyy! expensive. But then again - if you’re like me and planning to hold it for 20 years, then it makes sense and I also just keep buying this one and can’t wait to keep buying in 2024. And I hope this one also sees a 30 - 40% correction in 2024 but I’m not waiting for it. The big risk with this one: still not sure how the decline in demand for new commercial office buildings could impact it over the next decades. With some decent percentage working from home currently and that percentage likely to grow over time. This is the big unknown for me. 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the heads-up on SSD; an amazing company. Kicking myself for missing this one ( so far).

 

ADSK also great but the SBC is a deal-breaker for me. I can live with some of this, but yikes...they've been spending a billion a year to buy back stock, to make up for the SBC. Am I missing something here? 

 

[Value_Added]

GLDD -Basically just need to execute on their backlog.  Pretty good setup and with the recent approval of special funding for their venture into offshore wind, it decreases a lot of risk that was unnecessarily taken when rates were cheap. 
 

Business, though crappy and capital heavy, is a necessity and they have the cost advantage by a long shot. Record funding from their biggest client paired with much of that funding being higher margin should offer an 80% upside.  Short of prolonged periods of bad weather and another round of inflation/supply chain issues I don’t see much downside.  Simple execution is the catalyst here.  2024 should be a great year for the business.

 

IMXI - Continual execution from a great management in an extremely niche business should keep the stock chugging.  Recent partnership with Visa should offer them more competitive advantages on top of their already large heap they have in their market.  I expect to see large amounts of buybacks as they continue to generate plenty of FCF and the business needing very little capital. 
 

KRO - Down in the dumps for numerous reasons as any commodity is during a down cycle.   With production being located in Europe, they were hit harder than others due to electricity costs.  TIo2 is a necessity and market dynamics will again be in their favor.  Historically, this has performed very well for investors when purchasing at or below a price/tangible book value of 1 or below.  9% dividend is a nice bonus.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Value_Added

[valueventures]

44 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I like what I have still but outside of Nintendo nothing screams catalyst upcoming. I did also recently buy a lot of EBay which I’d probably say would be my candidate for having a crazy good 2024. The amount of stock they’re buying back, the sale proceeds plus remaining 20% stake in Adevinta, plus the FCF from existing biz….something gives at some point. 

What are your thoughts on / logic for buying EBAY over PYPL?!

[Gregmal]

21 minutes ago, valueventures said:

What are your thoughts on / logic for buying EBAY over PYPL?!

There’s tons of reasons. 
 

eBay is way cheaper, has a bigger and better moat, is still holding assets that it will monetize into significant sources of cash, has a clear capital allocation policy, and is small enough to be acquired.
 

I’ve always thought PayPal was overrated and additionally always viewed eBay as under-appreciated. The issue over the years for me with eBay was timing, but here I really like the setup.

[valueventures]

6 hours ago, ICUMD said:

BABA

Fairfax India

Interesting. BABA and TCEHY seem to be very popular picks for 2024.

 

Out of curiosity, assuming you own Fairfax, how are you sizing Fairfax relative to Fairfax India?

[dealraker]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

There’s tons of reasons. 
 

eBay is way cheaper, has a bigger and better moat, is still holding assets that it will monetize into significant sources of cash, has a clear capital allocation policy, and is small enough to be acquired.
 

I’ve always thought PayPal was overrated and additionally always viewed eBay as under-appreciated. The issue over the years for me with eBay was timing, but here I really like the setup.

I agree with this Greg and have for some time.  

[ICUMD]

4 hours ago, valueventures said:

Interesting. BABA and TCEHY seem to be very popular picks for 2024.

 

Out of curiosity, assuming you own Fairfax, how are you sizing Fairfax relative to Fairfax India?

Fairfax India is a very different business from Fairfax.

I actually don't own any Fairfax as it currently seems to be more fully valued. Was a steal in the 350s. Aside from management, the two have little in common.

 

Fairfax India on the other hand, is deeply discounted in my estimation.  I think the thinly traded shares are much more valuable than the market makes them out to be.  I'm confident the value will be realized over time.

 

Both BABA and Fairfax India are deep value plays on my books together totalling about 15% of my portfolio.