Cryptocurrencies

[TwoCitiesCapital]

8 hours ago, Sweet said:

It can be converted to dollars, and its value has increased a lot in the past decade+, so in some ways you are right, it is a store of value.

 

However that value has dropped 75% from its high though, and that’s a mark against it being a store value since it can lose so much.  
 

I also recently read that even most long terms holders (6 months or more) are now losing money.  No idea if true.

 

I’ll never understand why advocates of crypto need to evangelise the world though.  I am also confused why otherwise intelligent individuals cannot understand that when an asset produces nothing, it’s value is basically subjective.

 

 

 

Yes - given that the asset is down ~80%, anyone who has purchased in the last 18 months is likely down on the investment - similar to anyone who purchased just about any risk asset with the exception of a handful of equities and other assets. 

 

People often think of stocks as "long term stores of value" or "inflation hedges", and yet many equities are down 10-80% this year. Bitcoin is certainly more volatile, but I don't view that volatility as an argument against it's longer term characteristics that lend themselves to that store of value narrative. But as mentioned above, intermediate term movements are likely dominated by the secular growth trend and speculation.

 

The value of ANY asset is subjective - hence why we have markets. For every buyer who thinks they're getting a good deal is a seller thinking they're getting a good deal.

 

What I can tell you is there is REAL value to have a decentralized monetary system, there is REAL value to be having a stable money supply. There is REAL value to a global payments network that is native to the Internet. We can debate those values - but they have value and I believe that value to be many, many multiples of today's price at the full realization of those benefits. 

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

instead of crying and taking your toys home, you could instead define “centralization” and cite facts that show differences between BTC and other crypto currency’s beyond trading volume.

 If you can’t rebut my post with anything other than a tirade, it is clear you don’t know what you are talking about. 

 

Hate to tell you this but the man very much knows what he is talking about, we just don't want to hear it.

 

You and I could replicate Bitcoin Protocol tomorrow to create our own tokens, and they would go nowhere. Why? Our tokens cannot be actively traded by institutions as no CME options/futures are available, and hence are worthless. If still an unbeliever, look no further than the 2,400 token currently on the dead coin list. All those coin issuers thought that they too could just replicate BTC protocol to create their own currency, then discovered they couldn't. ttps://www.coinopsy.com/dead-coins/

 

Developers issue coins to fund their projects; typically an ETH token wrapped as a utility coin burned in the project application. The ETH consensus mechanism may be quasi-decentralized, but the burn of that utility coin itself, is centralized in the developers hands. You give the centralized developer cash for the utility coin, the centralized developer burnt it, and you got whatever the app was supposed to do. 

 

BTC has no future cashflow attributed to it, therefore it's not an asset, therefore it's a fools game! however, the only fool is the one with this view. Apparently ..... if a pretty girl in the bar batts her eye at you late on a Saturday night, that has no value ?? Or only if she's a hooker fishing for custom ??? You must lead a lonely life!

 

SD

 

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[Sweet]

5 minutes ago, wachtwoord said:

 

But why? You seem to have your final opinion cemented quite hard in your brain already. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value

 

Anyway I'll play nice and share this article from 2012 (once again) which has all the content you should need to understand this. New link cause the original link is dead.

 

https://medium.com/lux-initiative/bitcoin-the-libertarian-introduction-c616edd8496c

I don’t think you know what intrinsic value is, otherwise you wouldn’t be posting that article.

 

The value in the article is subjective in nature, and as I JUST STATED, the useful characteristics of Bitcoin mentioned in that article is not unique to Bitcoin at all, but to blockchain.

Intrinsic value in the investing world has long meant the sum of the cash flows, and Bitcoin doesn’t produce any.

[Sweet]

17 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Yes - given that the asset is down ~80%, anyone who has purchased in the last 18 months is likely down on the investment - similar to anyone who purchased just about any risk asset with the exception of a handful of equities and other assets. 

 

People often think of stocks as "long term stores of value" or "inflation hedges", and yet many equities are down 10-80% this year. Bitcoin is certainly more volatile, but I don't view that volatility as an argument against it's longer term characteristics that lend themselves to that store of value narrative. But as mentioned above, intermediate term movements are likely dominated by the secular growth trend and speculation.

 

The value of ANY asset is subjective - hence why we have markets. For every buyer who thinks they're getting a good deal is a seller thinking they're getting a good deal.

 

What I can tell you is there is REAL value to have a decentralized monetary system, there is REAL value to be having a stable money supply. There is REAL value to a global payments network that is native to the Internet. We can debate those values - but they have value and I believe that value to be many, many multiples of today's price at the full realization of those benefits. 

 

Who buys stocks as stores of value?  Seriously?

 

I don't.  I buy stocks because I want to make money.

 

Here is what you guys don't seem to be getting.  You say:

• "there is REAL value to have a decentralized monetary system, there is REAL value to be having a stable money supply. There is REAL value to a global payments network that is native to the Internet."

 

I place effectively zero value on those.  Read that again.

 

I do no value those things, anymore than I value collecting stamps.

 

The difference between intrinsic value of say a company, bond or real estate, and the subjective value you have for bitcoin, is that the former produces something.

 

This is an investment board, why do so many seemingly not understand the concept of intrinsic value?

 

 

 

 

 

[wachtwoord]

32 minutes ago, Sweet said:

I don’t think you know what intrinsic value is, otherwise you wouldn’t be posting that article.

 

The value in the article is subjective in nature, and as I JUST STATED, the useful characteristics of Bitcoin mentioned in that article is not unique to Bitcoin at all, but to blockchain.

Intrinsic value in the investing world has long meant the sum of the cash flows, and Bitcoin doesn’t produce any.

 

It's you who doesn't know what a store of value is. I'll stop responding now.

[ValueArb]

45 minutes ago, wachtwoord said:

 

Again: this has all been discussed over 8 years ago and nothing changed so I suggest you go read it if you truly want to know (I doubt it).

 

You can also read the article I posted above but you could have easily found this in old posts on this very forum.

 

My comment here today was just me lamenting. I don't think there's much to add on the subject. Especially not at the level this discussion is stuck at. 

 

What rkababang and the others are doing is a Sisyphean Task.

 

Merry Christmas!

 

Your article is very old news, a much better and more up to date overview of Crypto is Matt Levine's from Bloomberg.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2022-the-crypto-story/

 

And everyone understands private/public key encryption, how coins and NFTs are defined, how mining and proof of work works, how proof of stake works, etc, etc. 

 

None of this changes that anyone can copy an open source project to create a new cryptocurrency and the only difference between it and Bitcoin will be the level of adoption. We also understand that crypto has no intrinsic value, and only a tiny bit of utility, and the rest is made up of ponzi schemes, rug pulls, and straight out fraud.

 

Surrendering to delusion is a choice, not a task.

[ValueArb]

48 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Hate to tell you this but the man very much knows what he is talking about, we just don't want to hear it.

 

You and I could replicate Bitcoin Protocol tomorrow to create our own tokens, and they would go nowhere. Why? Our tokens cannot be actively traded by institutions as no CME options/futures are available, and hence are worthless. If still an unbeliever, look no further than the 2,400 token currently on the dead coin list. All those coin issuers thought that they too could just replicate BTC protocol to create their own currency, then discovered they couldn't. ttps://www.coinopsy.com/dead-coins/

 

Developers issue coins to fund their projects; typically an ETH token wrapped as a utility coin burned in the project application. The ETH consensus mechanism may be quasi-decentralized, but the burn of that utility coin itself, is centralized in the developers hands. You give the centralized developer cash for the utility coin, the centralized developer burnt it, and you got whatever the app was supposed to do. 

 

BTC has no future cashflow attributed to it, therefore it's not an asset, therefore it's a fools game! however, the only fool is the one with this view. Apparently ..... if a pretty girl in the bar batts her eye at you late on a Saturday night, that has no value ?? Or only if she's a hooker fishing for custom ??? You must lead a lonely life!

 

SD

 

 

 

Developers issue coins to fund their ponzis. There is no actual value, no one is using the worlds slowest database (blockchain) for anything other than promoting their ponzis. NFTs are flat out straight fraud, almost every single one is "valued" by wash sales between related parties seeking to bring in suckers.

 

Newly minted coins are only dead if they didn't have the right combination of promoters and influencers to bring in the suckers. They'll keep getting "minted" as long as new suckers are always available.

 

BTC  has no cashflows, therefore it has no intrinsic value. It might double tomorrow, or half next week. Neither you or I have any ability to predict it. Thinking Bitcoin has any innate value is the same as thinking a girl in a bar late on a Saturday night will be just as pretty in the cold light of morning and sobriety.

[ValueArb]

22 minutes ago, wachtwoord said:

 

It's you who doesn't know what a store of value is. I'll stop responding now.

 

The funny thing is I'm a long time software engineer, former BTC owner, and someone who has spent and continues to spend a great deal of time thinking about crypto in all it's forms. I'd be happy to find any real use or value to it, because that would be an opportunity. The problem is what crypto actually is continually falls short of what promoters claim it can do.

 

Crypto prices are driven entirely by inflows and outflows, unlike real investments that produce their own cash flows. A decade of record low interest rates has ended along with trillions in federal stimulus. That doesn't bode well for future crypto inflows. That "store" of "value" that's down 75% in a little over one year sure hasn't "stored" that "value" very well this year, and looks at risk to continue that record in the future.

[Sweet]

31 minutes ago, wachtwoord said:

 

It's you who doesn't know what a store of value is. I'll stop responding now.

 

Strange that you didn't address any of the points I made.

 

I know what I consider intrinsic value, and I have my own ideas of what a store of value is.

 

If you think it is bitcoin, fine, good luck to you.  Just let me disagree without the attempted conversion.

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by Sweet

[wachtwoord]

56 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

Strange that you didn't address any of the points I made.

 

I know what I consider intrinsic value, and I have my own ideas of what a store of value is.

 

If you think it is bitcoin, fine, good luck to you.  Just let me disagree without the attempted conversion.

 

I shared an article which did. 

[wachtwoord]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

 

Your article is very old news, a much better and more up to date overview of Crypto is Matt Levine's from Bloomberg.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2022-the-crypto-story/

 

And everyone understands private/public key encryption, how coins and NFTs are defined, how mining and proof of work works, how proof of stake works, etc, etc. 

 

None of this changes that anyone can copy an open source project to create a new cryptocurrency and the only difference between it and Bitcoin will be the level of adoption. We also understand that crypto has no intrinsic value, and only a tiny bit of utility, and the rest is made up of ponzi schemes, rug pulls, and straight out fraud.

 

Surrendering to delusion is a choice, not a task.

 

Old "news"? This is about what is and what isn't. Or do you also reject valid mathematic concepts simply because they were discovered over 2000 years ago? 

 

The article you posted certainly isn't better.

[wachtwoord]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

 

The funny thing is I'm a long time software engineer, former BTC owner, and someone who has spent and continues to spend a great deal of time thinking about crypto in all it's forms. I'd be happy to find any real use or value to it, because that would be an opportunity. The problem is what crypto actually is continually falls short of what promoters claim it can do.

 

Crypto prices are driven entirely by inflows and outflows, unlike real investments that produce their own cash flows. A decade of record low interest rates has ended along with trillions in federal stimulus. That doesn't bode well for future crypto inflows. That "store" of "value" that's down 75% in a little over one year sure hasn't "stored" that "value" very well this year, and looks at risk to continue that record in the future.

 

Are we comparing credentials? I have all the same as you plus a PhD does that matter to you? It doesn't to you.

 

You didn't find the use case while the main one, and the only one needed, is plain to see since the start: a store of value better than any that ever existed before (cause of the benefits over #2 gold).

 

Again: this is not rocket science. There you got me responding again

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

 

Who buys stocks as stores of value?  Seriously?

 

I don't.  I buy stocks because I want to make money.

 

Here is what you guys don't seem to be getting.  You say:

• "there is REAL value to have a decentralized monetary system, there is REAL value to be having a stable money supply. There is REAL value to a global payments network that is native to the Internet."

 

I place effectively zero value on those.  Read that again.

 

I do no value those things, anymore than I value collecting stamps.

 

The difference between intrinsic value of say a company, bond or real estate, and the subjective value you have for bitcoin, is that the former produces something.

 

This is an investment board, why do so many seemingly not understand the concept of intrinsic value?

 

 

 

 

If something is considered an inflation hedge, it is by definition a store of value. There can be other aspects to it - like growth - but most investors would assert that a broad basket of equities is a "store of a value" because preservation of value is a prerequisite to growing it - I e. "Making money".

 

And the VAST bulk of active participants on this board seemed to be under the delusion that equities were the asset class to own in inflation, regardless of price, i.e. an inflation hedge. So to answer your question, I'd say 'most investors' believe equities are a store of value.  

 

As far you valuing BTC's characteristics - here's the thing - I don't care if YOU value those things. It's not "Bitcoin for Sweet". It's Bitcoin. Those characteristics have value to plenty of people. The value of Bitcoin to a refugee from Afghanistan or someone receiving remittances in El Salvador is probably many multiples of its value to me as the network exists today. The difference is I recognize that the value exists, even if it's utilized by others and not myself, and that the value and use cases are only increasing. 

 

It's an incredibly self-centered view of the world for you to assume it has no value at all simply because it has no value to you.

Edited December 25, 2022 by TwoCitiesCapital

[dealraker]

Crypto is a very simplistic model of ongoing wealth tranfer between people who value their efforts and outcome in traditional dollar bills.  

 

No two people on earth have the same views as to crypto; everybody is allowed to make up the story they want or the story that serves them best in their effort to claim dollars or dollar value.  

 

Crypto has and will always fail in dollars.  

Edited December 25, 2022 by dealraker

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 minute ago, dealraker said:

Crypto is a very simplistic model of ongoing wealth tranfer between people who value their efforts and outcome in traditional dollar bills.  

 

No two people on earth have the same views as to crypto; everybody is allowed to make up the story they want or the story that serves them best in their effort to claim dollars or dollar value.  

 

Crypto has and will always fail in dollars.  

 

"Fail" is an odd choice of words for the best performing asset class of a decade that has dramatically more uses cases, adoption, and believers today than a handful of years ago. 

 

What does it take to "succeed" with that bar being so high?

[Sweet]

 

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

As far you valuing BTC's characteristics - here's the thing - I don't care if YOU value those things. It's not "Bitcoin for Sweet". It's Bitcoin. Those characteristics have value to plenty of people. The value of Bitcoin to a refugee from Afghanistan or someone receiving remittances in El Salvador is probably many multiples of its value to me as the network exists today. The difference is I recognize that the value exists, even if it's utilized by others and not myself, and that the value and use cases are only increasing. 

 

You are making my points for me now, and you have just repeated some of what I have already posted.

 

As mentioned, multiple times now btw, I believe the value you and other place on bitcoin is subjective.

 

The price of bitcoin is determined by one factor - what others are willing to transact at.

 

That's not investing in my book, it's speculation.  There is nothing wrong with that but let's be honest about what it is.

 

Ultimately investors have to make an assessment of the fair price of bitcoin.  In nearly 10 years nobody has shown me measurable intrinsic value that can be objectively valued and given a price.

 

 

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

It's an incredibly self-centered view of the world for you to assume it has no value at all simply because it has no value to you.

 

I can only assume you haven't bothered to read my post.

 

Since I've said several times that other people see value in bitcoin but I don't.  There is not one thing self-centered about that view, but your insistence that I should accept your views are.

 

Let's take it to the next step.  .

 

Question: What is it's fair price of bitcoin @TwoCitiesCapital and how did you arrive at that price?

 

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by Sweet

[TwoCitiesCapital]

38 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

 

You are making my points for me now, and you have just repeated some of what I have already posted.

 

As mentioned, multiple times now btw, I believe the value you and other place on bitcoin is subjective.

 

The price of bitcoin is determined by one factor - what others are willing to transact at.

 

That's not investing in my book, it's speculation.  There is nothing wrong with that but let's be honest about what it is.

 

Ultimately investors have to make an assessment of the fair price of bitcoin.  In nearly 10 years nobody has shown me measurable intrinsic value that can be objectively valued and given a price.

 

 

 

I can only assume you haven't bothered to read my post.

 

Since I've said several times that other people see value in bitcoin but I don't.  There is not one thing self-centered about that view, but your insistence that I should accept your views are.

 

Let's take it to the next step.  .

 

Question: What is it's fair price of bitcoin @TwoCitiesCapital and how did you arrive at that price?

 

 

 

The best estimates I've seen have been arrived at by Cane Island Digital based on expected growth adoption curves and metcalfe's law for network value. 

 

Obviously values that fluctuate on users vary from day-to-day based on observed users and expectations of future growth, but his current fair values range between $16-25k based on normalized users at the current time - with expectations that the network will keep growing in the future. 

 

[Longnose]

Not knowing how to value something and does not mean it does not have intrinsic value. 

 

Yes, BTC does not produce cash flow. But there are 7.8B people on the planet and only 976K wallets with greater than 1 BTC.  With 21M BTC that will ever be produced and growing adoption. The inflows will continue to exceed the outflows for a long runway. 

 

We have a lot of inflow Still to come into this commodity and the ease of trade and accessibility to everyone is a tailwind. 

[Blugolds]

No position in BTC and I admit that Im probably a bit naïve to the idea. I understand the blockchain technology and its appeal and application for various things, there is value in that. 

 

I think the biggest hinderance for me to ever get on board is the perceived (or actual) scarcity. In my life, anytime someone used "limited time only!", get in now before rates go up, one time offer, special pricing...insert attempted psychological manipulation to elicit desired response (usually separating you from your money) a red flag goes up. I cant help it. I've just seen it more times than I can count. When I hear friends who talk about why they are buying BTC, they ALWAYS start with "there are only so many that can be mined, so value has to go up". its like they draw a line in the sand between the haves and the have nots, those who were smart enough to buy (and get on the ark) and those who didnt heed the warning LOL. Half of them think that owning as much BTC as they can is gonna ensure they retire early, you would think the sky is the limit on the value of a BTC and the future Forbes list will be comprised solely of BTC bros who were in back when they were trading BTC for "likes" on forum threads. 

 

So I could be wrong, and in a decade or two I'll be apologizing to my kids that Dad heard about it, knew about it, and sat there sucking his thumb, but if he wouldnt have had such reservations they would vacationing at the 3rd house in the Hamptons. But I just cant help it, maybe its past personal history avoiding things that didnt feel right, and later finding out that I was right, maybe its the bias against it influenced by Omaha, maybe its my own stubbornness. Also, at least from my experience talking in person with those I know who buy it, there seems to be a correlation between honest questions asked and how defensive they get. I knew a guy once who made an "investment" in something, it was an all out scam, his brother saw it, I saw it, and when you logically tried to help him see, he doubled down defensively, a real case study on human psychology. Im not calling BTC an all out scam, but the reaction from the guy I knew scammed, and the reaction from guys trying to sell me on BTC is similar, thats all Im saying. 

 

There is one thing I wont argue. To some extent value perceived is value achieved. And there are plenty of people that value BTC. Im just not one of them. 

 

I have no desire to trade it, and that is the only appeal I could see. So I put it in the too hard pile. Honestly if I could visualize how it plays out in 1-3-5 years and it didnt feel so scammy, and it wasnt in amongst a plethora of other shitcoins that everybody and their brother made up, I might be more inclined to look closer. 

 

TBH Im seriously surprised that Trump hasnt started his own crypto coin. Im not kidding. 

[wachtwoord]

10 hours ago, Sweet said:

 

 

You are making my points for me now, and you have just repeated some of what I have already posted.

 

As mentioned, multiple times now btw, I believe the value you and other place on bitcoin is subjective.

 

The price of bitcoin is determined by one factor - what others are willing to transact at.

 

That's not investing in my book, it's speculation.  There is nothing wrong with that but let's be honest about what it is.

 

Ultimately investors have to make an assessment of the fair price of bitcoin.  In nearly 10 years nobody has shown me measurable intrinsic value that can be objectively valued and given a price.

 

 

 

I can only assume you haven't bothered to read my post.

 

Since I've said several times that other people see value in bitcoin but I don't.  There is not one thing self-centered about that view, but your insistence that I should accept your views are.

 

Let's take it to the next step.  .

 

Question: What is it's fair price of bitcoin @TwoCitiesCapital and how did you arrive at that price?

 

 

 

The best piece on valuation is still: https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor's+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf

 

Which I shared here in 2017! The point I continue to make!

 

Search and you will find. You are simply being lazy or just want to echo chamber to yourself what you already believe. Why do you need a public board for that?

[wachtwoord]

3 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

No position in BTC and I admit that Im probably a bit naïve to the idea. I understand the blockchain technology and its appeal and application for various things, there is value in that. 

 

I think the biggest hinderance for me to ever get on board is the perceived (or actual) scarcity. In my life, anytime someone used "limited time only!", get in now before rates go up, one time offer, special pricing...insert attempted psychological manipulation to elicit desired response (usually separating you from your money) a red flag goes up. I cant help it. I've just seen it more times than I can count. When I hear friends who talk about why they are buying BTC, they ALWAYS start with "there are only so many that can be mined, so value has to go up". its like they draw a line in the sand between the haves and the have nots, those who were smart enough to buy (and get on the ark) and those who didnt heed the warning LOL. Half of them think that owning as much BTC as they can is gonna ensure they retire early, you would think the sky is the limit on the value of a BTC and the future Forbes list will be comprised solely of BTC bros who were in back when they were trading BTC for "likes" on forum threads. 

 

So I could be wrong, and in a decade or two I'll be apologizing to my kids that Dad heard about it, knew about it, and sat there sucking his thumb, but if he wouldnt have had such reservations they would vacationing at the 3rd house in the Hamptons. But I just cant help it, maybe its past personal history avoiding things that didnt feel right, and later finding out that I was right, maybe its the bias against it influenced by Omaha, maybe its my own stubbornness. Also, at least from my experience talking in person with those I know who buy it, there seems to be a correlation between honest questions asked and how defensive they get. I knew a guy once who made an "investment" in something, it was an all out scam, his brother saw it, I saw it, and when you logically tried to help him see, he doubled down defensively, a real case study on human psychology. Im not calling BTC an all out scam, but the reaction from the guy I knew scammed, and the reaction from guys trying to sell me on BTC is similar, thats all Im saying. 

 

There is one thing I wont argue. To some extent value perceived is value achieved. And there are plenty of people that value BTC. Im just not one of them. 

 

I have no desire to trade it, and that is the only appeal I could see. So I put it in the too hard pile. Honestly if I could visualize how it plays out in 1-3-5 years and it didnt feel so scammy, and it wasnt in amongst a plethora of other shitcoins that everybody and their brother made up, I might be more inclined to look closer. 

 

TBH Im seriously surprised that Trump hasnt started his own crypto coin. Im not kidding. 

 

See that is a valid critique! If the limited issuance won't hold there is no value.

 

This is where the distributed nature comes in however. I suggest you read up on 'the block size wars' from the second half of 2017. Some of the most powerful actors in the space (giant mining operations, some ex-developers of the main client who were well known in the space, some successful entrepreneurs in the space) colluded for months while investing considerable resources in an attempt to change the code to their personal benefit but to the detriment of Bitcoin (increasing the block size, which they marketed as a positive thing but of course isn't as it'll lead in greater centralization, basically as bad as increasing the total issuance). They went as far as to vote with the majority mining power, showing they had a majority in that behind them. STILL they couldn't do it as normal users set up a client that would fork of sticking to the old rules and the miners couldn't risk losing revenue with the risk of being stuck on a dead and abandoned chain so they folded.

 

To contrast, compare it to the extremely centralized Ethereum where Vitalik single handedly decides what goes. Rewriting history as he pleased in the past (the DAO fiasco) all the way to this year abandoning any resemblance of decentralization this year by abandoning proof of work for proof of stake this year. With that, it's not even a cryptocurrency anymore.

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, wachtwoord said:

 

The best piece on valuation is still: https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor's+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf

 

Which I shared here in 2017! The point I continue to make!

 

Search and you will find. You are simply being lazy or just want to echo chamber to yourself what you already believe. Why do you need a public board for that?

you think this is an echo chamber?  
 

Why should we take you seriously when that’s your judgement of this thread and board which has been adversarial?

 

What you posted is not, in my opinion, a demonstration of intrinsic value.

 

I think nearly the entirety of this argument stems from differing views of what ‘intrinsic value’ is.

 

Crypto, not necessarily Bitcoin, have some useful characteristics and some will find value in that.  I’ve posted that many times now and you continually ignore it.

 

I’ve further said that the price of Bitcoin is a function of what other people are willing to pay for it, and the valuation you posted doesn’t argue otherwise, and in fact I’d say it confirms that view.

 

[Sweet]

11 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

The best estimates I've seen have been arrived at by Cane Island Digital based on expected growth adoption curves and metcalfe's law for network value. 

 

Obviously values that fluctuate on users vary from day-to-day based on observed users and expectations of future growth, but his current fair values range between $16-25k based on normalized users at the current time - with expectations that the network will keep growing in the future. 

 

I’ve been having a read, thanks for the straight answer.

[Santayana]

On 12/22/2022 at 9:07 AM, rkbabang said:

Agreed.  I was at the grocery store this summer and this old woman, probably in her 80s, was paying with a check.  I hadn't seen that in years.  She wrote out the check, then filled in info about it in the transaction journal above the check in her checkbook.  Here's someone who's never adopted credit cards or even debit cards.  I'm sure she wouldn't understand why anyone would need Applepay.   I came next and paid with my watch.

It's quite a leap to say that because you saw someone use a check for a particular purchase that they've never adopted credit/debit cards for any other use.  I have customers ask to pay with check at my business all the time, and when I tell them we don't take checks, all of them are then able to pull out a credit card and use it.

[SharperDingaan]

15 hours ago, ValueArb said:

Thinking Bitcoin has any innate value is the same as thinking a girl in a bar late on a Saturday night will be just as pretty in the cold light of morning and sobriety.

 

Actually, it's identical to BTC. Saturday night her value was high, with prospects swarming all over her (BTC at USD 50K). Of course next morning .... it's a little different (BTC at USD 15,000)! The problem is the radical change in valuation, not the innate value of the women herself.

 

Blockchain is the value add, the app (BTC) value is purely situational.

If I want the extreme privacy I'm willing to pay the mining charge. If I'm concerned about the price volatility I'm willing to pay the put premiums. If I think I'm going to benefit from future inflation (future money in-flows>out-flows) I'm willing to treat it as an investment. Mining cashflow, option premium cashflow, future net money in-flows; not a lot different to any other investment.

 

I don't have a way of easy valuation, does not mean that there is no value.   

 

SD