Cryptocurrencies

[Fly]

2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Anybody have any reckoning for why Bitcoin mining stocks are up so much in the last two weeks? 

 

Crazy to me to see 40-50% rallies in names like Cleanspark and Marathon while crypto prices languish. They've traded like crap all year despite BTCs ATHs and then suddenly pop 50% on no news? 

 

I'm guessing AI/HPC related in light of the OpenAI/ORCL/NVDA triumvirate and future energy needs. I suspect a lot of these BTC miners will get taken out through M&A

[Fly]

This was a good episode to help me come to terms with the changing BTC narratives over the years. I struggle with new narratives like BTC ETFs and/or treasury companies. Pete has a good analogy of a shadow puppet viewed from different angles but the hand remains the same. 

 

 

[scorpioncapital]

On 9/22/2025 at 10:42 AM, gfp said:

 

From the looks of Interactive Brokers, ASST is "not shortable"

 

 

who wants 100% shares in ASST, especially unhedged. even an outlandish speculation on Bitcoin price is still a speculation, with a spread. When does it close ?

[Paarslaars]

On 9/22/2025 at 7:35 PM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Why the large disconnect in share reaction?

 

Surely shareholders will accept a 100% premium to the lookthru BTC to gain shares in another BTC Treasury co? 

 

On 9/22/2025 at 8:23 PM, rkbabang said:

 

Interesting. Given 1 share SMLR = 20.05 shares ASST, ASST=$4 implies SMLR=$80.20, but SMLR=$32.20 is valuing ASST at $1.60.   That is quite a bit of a spread.  I'm betting the value is somewhere in the middle.  You can't short ASST, but current ASST owners should absolutely sell ASST and buy SMLR.

 

 

1.6$ was the price of the PIPE on ASST that still needs to be unlocked, hence the spread.

If you want to see what happens when huge PIPE deals unlock, have a look at what happened to SQNS (PIPE was at 14$ adjusted).

[TwoCitiesCapital]

8 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

 

 

1.6$ was the price of the PIPE on ASST that still needs to be unlocked, hence the spread.

If you want to see what happens when huge PIPE deals unlock, have a look at what happened to SQNS (PIPE was at 14$ adjusted).

 

Good call. Didn't realize that had happened or were unlocking later this month

[rkbabang]

8 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

 

 

1.6$ was the price of the PIPE on ASST that still needs to be unlocked, hence the spread.

If you want to see what happens when huge PIPE deals unlock, have a look at what happened to SQNS (PIPE was at 14$ adjusted).

 

Thanks.  I knew there had to be something that I didn't understand.  That's why I only bought a small amount. 

[willypoo]

8 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

 

 

1.6$ was the price of the PIPE on ASST that still needs to be unlocked, hence the spread.

If you want to see what happens when huge PIPE deals unlock, have a look at what happened to SQNS (PIPE was at 14$ adjusted).

If I understand this correctly, ASST price should crater soon, but what does that imply about SMLR's price?

 

It is still trading at a discount to mNAV in a period where we are expecting BTC to run up again so maybe some premium expansion.

Implied price appears to be a floor, so risk is skewed to the upside.

 

Thoughts?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

34 minutes ago, willypoo said:

If I understand this correctly, ASST price should crater soon, but what does that imply about SMLR's price?

 

It is still trading at a discount to mNAV in a period where we are expecting BTC to run up again so maybe some premium expansion.

Implied price appears to be a floor, so risk is skewed to the upside.

 

Thoughts?

 

I'm staying long the beer-money calls for this reason. 

 

Bitcoin seasonality is here and is positive. 

 

Traditionally the next 1-3 months is where the cycle would end if we're repeating - which means blow off tops which is positive. 

 

And despite the PIPE deal expected to deal a blow to ASST share price, there's still plenty of wiggle room before that should hit SMLR given the current large discount to offer price. 

[Paarslaars]

Well regarding the merger, it just means the market values ASST at 1.6 and hence SMLR at 32. This represents the ASST value the Semler shareholders are getting.

 

SMLR traded at a discount to NAV because of overhang from their legacy business I believe, SQNS is now post-PIPE unlock in the same situation. DDC is another example trading at 0.65x NAV. These companies have lost faith from investors that they can consistently increase BTC/share. They need to change this or they become acquisitions targets.

 

SQNS has started buybacks to continue to benefit shareholders while they are below NAV.

Edited October 3, 2025 by Paarslaars

[willypoo]

1 minute ago, Paarslaars said:

Well regarding the merger, it just means the market values ASST st 1.6 and hence SMLR at 32. This represents the ASST value the Semler shareholders are getting.

 

SMLR traded at a discount to NAV because of overhang from their legacy business I believe, SQNS is now post-PIPE unlock in the same situation. DDC is another example trading at 0.65x NAV. These companies have lost faith from investors that they can consistently increase BTC/share. They need to change this or they bevolen acquisitions targets.

I think for me, the question is now right before the start of this bull run, will my incremental dollars be better off in (who will have greater mNAV expansion)

 

1. MSTR or MTPLF both are trading at mNAV 1.286

2. SMLR mNAV 0.729 

 

Option 1 - I am confident they can continue to generate BTC yield

Option 2 - the only way to unlock value is by being acquired, but the shares I'm getting will be cratering... 

 

BTCUSD ATH as we speak. 

 

[Paarslaars]

It's a strange environment, right before the bull run all the BTCTCs have cratered... While miners like IREN have skyrocketted. 

 

I am still a big fan of MTPLF even though they dropped the ball with their PIPE recently, shorts got the better of them.

 

If you are unsure about these companies, IBIT options are also a good bet.

[Fly]

1 hour ago, Paarslaars said:

It's a strange environment, right before the bull run all the BTCTCs have cratered... While miners like IREN have skyrocketted. 

 

I am still a big fan of MTPLF even though they dropped the ball with their PIPE recently, shorts got the better of them.

 

If you are unsure about these companies, IBIT options are also a good bet.

 

Bitcoin miners are now being viewed as data centers with cheap power agreements. Becoming decoupled from the regular BTC ecosystem

[Longnose]

https://www.investopedia.com/robinhood-s-token-versions-of-stocks-11771765

 

After listening to Vlad at the All-In summit I started looking into what blockchains and such that they are doing this work on. Most of it appaers to be L2 on Etherium via the Arbitrum Network.

 

Im curious if others have looked into the stuff that Robinhood is doing here. When i first started playing with crypto this was exactly what i wished was happening. Im starting to explore if there are good opportunities to spread some money around in the arbitrum network to capture some of the growth that will likely happen as development continues in this chain. The EU/Private Companies/US Government are all uncertain / not thrilled about it. But this is the kind of disruption that will happen with our without robinhood and IMO in the long run will be a good thing. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

16 minutes ago, Longnose said:

https://www.investopedia.com/robinhood-s-token-versions-of-stocks-11771765

 

After listening to Vlad at the All-In summit I started looking into what blockchains and such that they are doing this work on. Most of it appaers to be L2 on Etherium via the Arbitrum Network.

 

Im curious if others have looked into the stuff that Robinhood is doing here. When i first started playing with crypto this was exactly what i wished was happening. Im starting to explore if there are good opportunities to spread some money around in the arbitrum network to capture some of the growth that will likely happen as development continues in this chain. The EU/Private Companies/US Government are all uncertain / not thrilled about it. But this is the kind of disruption that will happen with our without robinhood and IMO in the long run will be a good thing. 

 

Maybe I'm just jaded from being burned in 2021 on the DeFi opportunity - but generally have told myself that when DeFi talk becomes widespread again is when I'd start lightening up on my BTC holdings in anticipation of the sentiment top being put in. 

[Longnose]

I hear ya on that front. 

 

Right now im only in BTC. This is the first time in 2 years ive thought of going back into an alt coin network. 

[Fly]

3 hours ago, Longnose said:

https://www.investopedia.com/robinhood-s-token-versions-of-stocks-11771765

 

After listening to Vlad at the All-In summit I started looking into what blockchains and such that they are doing this work on. Most of it appaers to be L2 on Etherium via the Arbitrum Network.

 

Im curious if others have looked into the stuff that Robinhood is doing here. When i first started playing with crypto this was exactly what i wished was happening. Im starting to explore if there are good opportunities to spread some money around in the arbitrum network to capture some of the growth that will likely happen as development continues in this chain. The EU/Private Companies/US Government are all uncertain / not thrilled about it. But this is the kind of disruption that will happen with our without robinhood and IMO in the long run will be a good thing. 

 

L2 Arb networks dont need to have a native token, so what are you considering buying? The ARB token for the DAO? I agree with @TwoCitiesCapital and wouldn't touch anything "DeFi" related since it is never really decentralized. 

[Spekulatius]

Quite a story. How is this not a movie?

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/05/opinion/bitcoin-georgia-ivanishvili-bachiashvili.html

[Longnose]

On 10/3/2025 at 6:49 PM, Fly said:

 

L2 Arb networks dont need to have a native token, so what are you considering buying? The ARB token for the DAO? I agree with @TwoCitiesCapital and wouldn't touch anything "DeFi" related since it is never really decentralized. 

More along the lines of thinking that money / development will continue to flow into the ARB network as HOOD continues to develop on the chain. 

 

A few years back i spread money around the AVAX network.  Looking for tokens and projects that are "real" with real dev behind them. Im not talking big dollars here but if I pick 10-15 tokens / projects that have potential of unicorning within the ARB network I'd feel OK about it.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

I'm seeing it reported all over Twitter from various sources that a handful of wallets shorted hundreds of millions of BTC and ETH on varying exchanges just minutes before Trump's announcement on China that sent crypto spiraling. 

 

Seems like someone was given advance notice and traded on it. Probably why this administration is so favorable on crypto - much easier for them to abuse and trade on information semi-anonymously to make hundreds of millions.

 

Gains are estimated to have been in the ballpark of $250-300 million....

Edited October 11, 2025 by TwoCitiesCapital

[nsx5200]

4 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Seems like someone was given advance notice and traded on it. Probably why this administration is so favorable on crypto - much easier for them to abuse and trade on information semi-anonymously to make hundreds of millions.

 

Gains are estimated to have been in the ballpark of $250-300 million....

 

So what's the logical/smart move, if you were a holder of that asset, and you know an asset is being manipulated?

Edited October 11, 2025 by nsx5200
rewording

[Fly]

1 hour ago, nsx5200 said:

 

So what's the logical/smart move, if you were a holder of that asset, and you know an asset is being manipulated?

 

Hold long term without trying to play the short term trading game.

 

https://substack.com/home/post/p-175858923

Edited October 12, 2025 by Fly

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, nsx5200 said:

 

So what's the logical/smart move, if you were a holder of that asset, and you know an asset is being manipulated?

 

Someone trading a stock on inside information isn't reason for you to sell the stock - it's reason to convict the inside trader

Edited October 12, 2025 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Dave86ch]

10 hours ago, nsx5200 said:

 

So what's the logical/smart move, if you were a holder of that asset, and you know an asset is being manipulated?

Buy Bitcoin when the price drop.

Edited October 12, 2025 by Dave86ch

[dwy000]

15 hours ago, nsx5200 said:

 

So what's the logical/smart move, if you were a holder of that asset, and you know an asset is being manipulated?

The old saying "if you dont know who the sucker is at the poker table, its probably you" comes to mind here. 

 

If you think its being manipulated, unless youre involved in it, the only smart move is to step away.

[Dave86ch]

Saylor just didn’t buy last week.

A lesson for retail investors:

you can always buy the dip.