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rkbabang

By rkbabang
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jfan
jfan

@Luca   I came across this short article that you might find interesting regarding the value proposition of Bitcoin.    Bitcoin's unique value proposition | BitMEX Blog  

gfp
gfp

Well finally somebody lays it out in a way I can understand it    

Gregmal
Gregmal

And then theres also the fact that they take volatility, something naturally inherent in pretty much anything, and point to its existence, as proof that their obvious biases are well founded and ratio

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TwoCitiesCapital Grand Master

TwoCitiesCapital

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

 

Something that potentially could go down in value (bitcoin) is bad collateral.

Something that is guaranteed to go down in value (fiat money) is good collateral.

 

Am I getting this right Parsad? 🙂 

 

 

I don't disagree with you in theory, but in practice the RATE of decline also matters. 

 

In this instance you have two forms of collateral: 

 

1) Fiat - you can be near certain it will depreciate, but probably not by more than 1-5% in any given year and can be modeled easily without much of a macro view. 

 

2) Bitcoin - an asset that can appreciate, sometimes significantly, but has also a demonstrated ability of falling 20-50% multiple times (even in bull markets) and by 80+% in bear markets. Much harder to model - particularly without a macro view that proves accurate. 

 

I DO thank Bitcoin will be used as collateral in the future. I DO believe it's volatility will continue to come down some and will be primarily in the upward direction. But I also believe this is new for the banking industry and mistakes will be made along the way. The question is how big and how widespread they'll be. 

Edited by TwoCitiesCapital
rkbabang Mentor

rkbabang

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Posted
1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I don't disagree with you in theory, but in practice the RATE of decline also matters. 

 

In this instance you have two forms of collateral: 

 

1) Fiat - you can be near certain it will depreciate, but probably not by more than 1-5% in any given year and can be modeled easily without much of a macro view. 

 

2) Bitcoin - an asset that can appreciate, sometimes significantly, but has also a demonstrated ability of falling 20-50% multiple times (even in bull markets) and by 80+% in bear markets. Much harder to model - particularly without a macro view that proves accurate. 

 

I DO thank Bitcoin will be used as collateral in the future. I DO believe it's volatility will continue to come down some and will be primarily in the upward direction. But I also believe this is new for the banking industry and mistakes will be made along the way. The question is how big and how widespread they'll be. 


The other issue is when you take out a loan in USD and it is backed by savings in USD, if USD declines in value both your savings and the principal on the loan decline by the same amount simultaneously.  If you take out a loan in USD backed by savings in something else, if that something else has a large decline in USD price, even temporarily, you can run into problems.  There is sure to be growing pains getting this right.  
 

Also if I’m not mistaken other cryptocurrencies are allowed as well, not just Bitcoin. Loans backed by pumped up shitcoin bubbles does seem like a recipe for disaster.

Dave86ch Proficient

Dave86ch

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

You can't capture in words how goddamn stupid this all is.

It took me many years to understand the intrinsic value of the Bitcoin protocol.

 

I will never understand the intrinsic value of comments like these.

DooDiligence Grand Master

DooDiligence

Posted
Posted

Just read this.

 

https://caffeinatedcaptial.substack.com/p/the-great-digital-deception-how-global

 

Full title not in the URL:

The Great Digital Deception: How Global Chaos is Blinding Us to the Rise of State-Controlled Money

===

 

Section titles to help you decide if it's worth a click:

1) Opening Bell: Welcome to the Financial Funhouse

2) The Shiny New Toys: Stablecoins and the Global Money Race

3) The Iron Fist in the Digital Glove: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)

Section 3 gives a basic outline of current initiatives and includes a particularly chilling discussion about e-CNY's.

4) The Human Condition: Our Brains, Our Biases, Our Bucks

5) The Cashless Conundrum: Losing Anonymity, Gaining Vulnerability

6) The Geopolitical Game: Money as a Weapon in a Fragmented World

7) Your Financial Freedom: Navigating the Digital Wilds

===

 

All that's contained in this writeup may be old news to many here.

Paarslaars Mentor

Paarslaars

Posted
Posted (edited)

Seems like false promises to me... Tom Lee joined BMNR to make it the MSTR of ETH.

I don't think this will work out that well but I'm not familiar with ETH.

If the US is really going to push all this stablecoin stuff backed by ETH, who knows...

 

With ETH down 30% over the past year and BTC up 70%, I don't think it's going well for ETH, bitcoin dominance is still around ATH.

Edited by Paarslaars
TwoCitiesCapital Grand Master

TwoCitiesCapital

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

Seems like false promises to me... Tom Lee joined BMNR to make it the MSTR of ETH.

I don't think this will work out that well but I'm not familiar with ETH.

If the US is really going to push all this stablecoin stuff backed by ETH, who knows...

 

With ETH down 30% over the past year and BTC up 70%, I don't think it's going well for ETH, bitcoin dominance is still around ATH.

 

I saw a stat the other day that more than 50% of tether issuance is now on Tron (another platform - an ETH competitor). 

 

Just because stablecoins "win" doesn't mean they'll be on ETH. You need stablecoins AND ETH to win for ETH to do well and I'm not certain that is going to happen. 

Fly Community Regular

Fly

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I saw a stat the other day that more than 50% of tether issuance is now on Tron (another platform - an ETH competitor). 

 

Just because stablecoins "win" doesn't mean they'll be on ETH. You need stablecoins AND ETH to win for ETH to do well and I'm not certain that is going to happen. 

 

Yep, and if stablecoins win they need to be moving on a decentralized platform where control can't be subverted by ETH foundation, Justin Sun with Tron scenario. Tether on Lightning is going to be the ultimate winner. 

 

https://lightning.engineering/posts/2025-01-30-Tether-on-Lightning/

 

Longnose Proficient

Longnose

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, sleepydragon said:

Guys, what would be a good stock to buy to play catch/participate bitcoins here?

 

buy MSTR? Metaplanet? Altbg? Coinbase? Or just ebit? Or circle?

 

Just buy bitcoin.

 

But one other that I've been playing with buying and trading on and off is EXOD.  They are a wallet and have significant BTC reserve. They very volatile. 

 

Super small % but little trades here and there. 

Edited by Longnose
Paarslaars Mentor

Paarslaars

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, sleepydragon said:

Guys, what would be a good stock to buy to play catch/participate bitcoins here?

 

buy MSTR? Metaplanet? Altbg? Coinbase? Or just ebit? Or circle?

 

In own quite a few but I do follow them closely. MSTR (US), Metaplanet (JP) and ALTBG (FR) are larger positions, mainly due to gains. I also own DDC and K33. My favorite is still Metaplanet, absolutely relentless execution. SWC seems to be doing extraordinairy well but I cannot buy it.

 

NAKA would also be an interesting one. They hold BTC while also investing in LBEs (Leveraged Bitcoin equities) early on. However due to the ongoing merger it is not clear what you are buying at this point so I am still avoiding it.

sleepydragon Veteran

sleepydragon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Paarslaars said:

In own quite a few but I do follow them closely. MSTR (US), Metaplanet (JP) and ALTBG (FR) are larger positions, mainly due to gains. I also own DDC and K33. My favorite is still Metaplanet, absolutely relentless execution. SWC seems to be doing extraordinairy well but I cannot buy it.

 

NAKA would also be an interesting one. They hold BTC while also investing in LBEs (Leveraged Bitcoin equities) early on. However due to the ongoing merger it is not clear what you are buying at this point so I am still avoiding it.

Thanks Paarslaars!

For metaplanet, do u just buy the Japanese stock (3305.T) on ibkr? Do you convert your USD to jpy to buy or u have a jpy margin balance? 

TwoCitiesCapital Grand Master

TwoCitiesCapital

Posted
Posted (edited)

I asked chat GPT to give me year-edd BTC targets based on historical trading patterns. $40 -225k encapsulated the 95% confidence range with it's mean/median estimate at $130-150k.

 

Then I told it to ignore all prior trading history and estimate the price based only on supply demand factors. It estimates demand at ~2k BTC per day (ETFs alone are doing more than this on a lot of days - no consideration for miners holding, corporations/countries buying, or non-brokerage activity) and the annual shortfall at ~530k BTC. 

 

Based on supply/demand mismatch, it acknowledged the potential for parabolic outcomes asymmetric to the upside. It's range is $180,000 -$280,000 to compel additional sales/supply if current demand trends persist. 

Edited by TwoCitiesCapital
sleepydragon Veteran

sleepydragon

Posted
Posted

Gosh, i am studying metaplanet. So they sell puts on bitcoins, and they sell stocks (plus 0 interest debt, maybe it’s a convert) to fund bitcoin purchases.

this is insane! Maybe i shall do this on my brk positions..

 

anyway, one question: if bitcoins just keep going up, or say it always bounce up above the strike of the puts sold by metaplanet, that could be a problem? 
 

it does seem metaplanet’s strategy is a bit smarter than MSTR, because it harvests the volatility of bitcoin. It’s actually a bit more conservative? Am i right?

 

 

SharperDingaan Veteran

SharperDingaan

Posted
Posted (edited)

Traveling in Europe and have came across repeated comment from the friends in low places. There is a growing preference for bullion intentionally held outside of the US, vs bales of USD ... which have lost value. Crypto being used to evade capital controls ... but not as a store of value - gold is.

 

It seems to be widely expected that the US will restructure its debt as soon as the head of the federal reserve is replaced, and highly likely that gold flows out of the US will be restricted. Those bales of USD outside of the US devaluing instantly.

 

When even the friends are preparing ..... one has to think that an inflexion point is coming up. May we all do well 😇

 

Interesting thought is what happens to those bales of USD if the USD suddenly devalues ... there is incentive to dump it into BTC and immediately buy puts at the days market price. BTC spikes higher, then falls back ... with more of it concentrating in strong hands. Again, may we all do well!

 

SD

 

Edited by SharperDingaan
sleepydragon Veteran

sleepydragon

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Traveling in Europe and have came across repeated comment from the friends in low places. There is a growing preference for bullion intentionally held outside of the US, vs bales of USD ... which have lost value. Crypto being used to evade capital controls ... but not as a store of value - gold is.

 

It seems to be widely expected that the US will restructure its debt as soon as the head of the federal reserve is replaced, and highly likely that gold flows out of the US will be restricted. Those bales of USD outside of the US devaluing instantly.

 

When even the friends are preparing ..... one has to think that an inflexion point is coming up. May we all do well 😇

 

SD

 


what does this means for GLD?

are you saying this is bullish for crypto or gold? Thanks!

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