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Posted

Back in March 2020 I shared this conversation with my neighbor from the front porches.  The exact day of the conversation ended up being the exact market bottom for equities.  For the record, this same neighbor told me yesterday, "I sold all my crypto!  I own zero crypto."  Hmmmm...

 

 

Posted

With Bitcoin currently priced around $105,000 USD and approximately 19.87M Bitcoins in circulation, the Bitcoin “Market Cap” is ~ 2.2T. If every BTC holder decided tomorrow that they wanted to cash in their Bitcoin, how much of that 2.2T is actually available to be paid out as cash? I would assume all 2.2T, correct? And if there is a difference between the 2.2T and how much could actually be cashed out, what’s happened to the difference?

Posted
16 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

With Bitcoin currently priced around $105,000 USD and approximately 19.87M Bitcoins in circulation, the Bitcoin “Market Cap” is ~ 2.2T. If every BTC holder decided tomorrow that they wanted to cash in their Bitcoin, how much of that 2.2T is actually available to be paid out as cash? I would assume all 2.2T, correct? And if there is a difference between the 2.2T and how much could actually be cashed out, what’s happened to the difference?

Not quite sure thats how markets work haha. If every holder of any asset (Gold, Apple, Berkshire) decided to sell the asset tomorrow then unless there was a similar horde of people looking to buy the asset, then the price would obviously continue dropping until a floor in the price was made. Not sure what type of point you are attempting to make. Nothing ever gets 'cashed out'. Anytime somebody sells an asset then there is obviously a new buyer that then owns the asset.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Milu said:

Not quite sure thats how markets work haha. If every holder of any asset (Gold, Apple, Berkshire) decided to sell the asset tomorrow then unless there was a similar horde of people looking to buy the asset, then the price would obviously continue dropping until a floor in the price was made. Not sure what type of point you are attempting to make. Nothing ever gets 'cashed out'. Anytime somebody sells an asset then there is obviously a new buyer that then owns the asset.

I think the overriding logic is that there's different rules for "real" assets, and "fake" assets. Same way Tesla having a few years of trading sideways is "evidence" of the jig being up, but Fairfax have a lost decade was just part of "investing".

Posted
14 minutes ago, Milu said:

If every holder of any asset (Gold, Apple, Berkshire) decided to sell the asset tomorrow then unless there was a similar horde of people looking to buy the asset, then the price would obviously continue dropping until a floor in the price was made. Not sure what type of point you are attempting to make.

That may be exactly the point being made.  It's value is based entirely on perception with no underlying intrinsic value.

Posted

Not trying to prove anything, just wondering out loud. Obviously the example is extreme, but it still seems like a valid question/thought exercise. I can see the obvious difference between Apple/Brk and BTC because that’s a little like comparing apples to oranges.

 

So it sounds like there may not be $105,000 of cash backing every Bitcoin? Am I understanding that correctly? 

Posted
12 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I think the overriding logic is that there's different rules for "real" assets, and "fake" assets. Same way Tesla having a few years of trading sideways is "evidence" of the jig being up, but Fairfax have a lost decade was just part of "investing".

I’m not trying to make any of those points. It seems like if the BTC market cap is currently worth 2.2T, that’s 2.2T of people’s/investors money, correct? So 2.2T in cash has been “invested” into BTC, correct? And if so, how much of that 2.2T in cash would actually be available to be paid out to those investors? I would think there should be 2.2T and if there is a difference, why is that? Seems like a fairly straightforward question. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Posted
6 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

So it sounds like there may not be $105,000 of cash backing every Bitcoin? Am I understanding that correctly? 

 

This is a bit of an odd thing to say. I find it challenging to think of assets with a value of $X with an actual guarantee to be exchangeable whenever you want for $X dollars.

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