Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[Dalal.Holdings]

If you want to do real scuttlebutt on the UK, you would look outside London which is a global city with a bunch of foreigners trading expensive real estate…

 

The UK isn’t doing so hot outside that city.

 

Many European firms deserve a discount until broad reforms are on the menu. It looks like there are faint signs of reforms, but I’d like to see more. And there’s a chance those big reforms don’t happen until the impending political upheaval where the “far right” (but not really that far right) takes over from the current ineffectual leadership of the continent.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.dw.com/en/eu-seeks-us-trade-concessions-by-doubling-steel-tariffs-and-cutting-quotas/a-74275476

 

Funny how EU officials have begun imitating DJT…too bad those European steel firms still have to figure out a way to make “carbon neutral steel” (whatever that means…)

Edited October 11, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[changegonnacome]

52 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

he UK isn’t doing so hot outside that city

 

Outside London and Manchester I would posit.

 

Its a wonderful place the UK - many friends there but successive Governments Tory and Labor have systematically made poor decisions. Its been quite said to watch from a distance but sense at least that the UK kind of knows what has gone wrong which is the first step to the more difficult 'how do we fitx t'.

 

I'd have to find the article but collectively I believe if Europe was the United State of Europe its debt to GDP ratio in aggregate would be 80%. When one looks at the trajectory of the USA and Europe over the last 15yrs I think we in the US can get a little smug with our outperformance....much of that outperformance can be attributed to soverign leverage which has blown out ours from mid to high double digits into the 120%++ range and growing ~5% p/a.....that is a alot $$$$ pumped in by Uncle Sam versus the EUropeans

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/right-wing-europe-dd4f1156

 

Reform is coming...one way or another...don't try to fight the Will of the People.

 

 

[Gamecock-YT]

5 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Outside London and Manchester I would posit.

 

Its a wonderful place the UK - many friends there but successive Governments Tory and Labor have systematically made poor decisions. Its been quite said to watch from a distance but sense at least that the UK kind of knows what has gone wrong which is the first step to the more difficult 'how do we fitx t'.

 

I'd have to find the article but collectively I believe if Europe was the United State of Europe its debt to GDP ratio in aggregate would be 80%. When one looks at the trajectory of the USA and Europe over the last 15yrs I think we in the US can get a little smug with our outperformance....much of that outperformance can be attributed to soverign leverage which has blown out ours from mid to high double digits into the 120%++ range and growing ~5% p/a.....that is a alot $$$$ pumped in by Uncle Sam versus the EUropeans

 

A massive amount of construction is going on in Birmingham getting ready for HS2 when I was there over the summer. Birmingham City FC is also planning on redeveloping a part of town which includes a new stadium. I think HS2 will be a game changer for the city. 

[changegonnacome]

13 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said:

A massive amount of construction is going on in Birmingham getting ready for HS2 when I was there over the summer. Birmingham City FC is also planning on redeveloping a part of town which includes a new stadium. I think HS2 will be a game changer for the city. 

 

yeah agree have heard Birmingham is shooting for Manchester-esque renaissance....hopefully more cities regions in the UK follow suit.

[Ulti]

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/03/19/eu-commission-unveils-plan-to-channel-10-trillion-of-citizens-savings-into-strategic-inves
 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000732943957
 

I was listening to an interview withOlli Rehn. Governing council ECB and I never heard of the savings and investment union proposal… I’m skeptical but would this be good for European equities?

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

“While other nations invest in energy security and technological modernization, Germany burdens its companies with green regulations, unaffordable electricity, and bureaucratic suffocation. The same government that shut down clean nuclear energy now forces manufacturers to operate on the most expensive power in Europe. For small and medium-sized enterprises, once the backbone of German prosperity, the cost pressure is unbearable. Insolvencies are soaring, capacity utilization is collapsing, and thousands of skilled workers are losing their jobs.”

Edited October 24, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.ft.com/content/745fff84-2cbf-491c-b70c-e39bc8edaa39

 

German industrial production now at ~2005 levels. Very sad and a lot of it is self-inflicted.

 

Some people wonder why AfD support is increasing. Germans (and the EU) need not just fiscal spending, but deep structural reforms. If Merz can't turn this around, AfD is guaranteed.

 

Quote

Excluding short and temporary shocks during the global financial crisis and at the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the data indicates industrial production is at the weakest level since 2005. It is almost 20 per cent below its pre-pandemic peak. Car production outside of those two crises is at the lowest level since 2000.

 

Edited October 24, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

Merz says ICE ban by 2035 is a no-go and now this:

 

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/keir-starmer-net-zero-climate-britain-labour-party-04c069aa?mod=hp_opin_pos_5

 

Quote

That wailing sound you hear drifting across the Atlantic are the cries of climate activists as London weighs a big step away from net-zero insanity. Maybe common sense lives after all.

 

Prime Minister Keir Starmer is preparing to ditch his promise to shift 95% of Britain’s electricity generation to renewables by 2030, the Guardian newspaper reported this week. Mr. Starmer’s office denied it, but every other word and deed from his government suggests the report is correct.

 

Quote

The climate left won’t go down without a fight, and it is waging a rear-guard action to hold Mr. Starmer to his renewables promise. He may change his mind this autumn. Still, it’s progress that he’s even thinking about ditching Labour’s climate obsession. Reality generally wins in the end.

 

No one available to check the Leftists is a big reason Europe is what it is today.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Change is coming

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

It's certainly mixed candy here in Europe :

 

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Change is coming

 

 

 

 

Awesome - the US got a taste of this nonsense- and the country has rejected it.

Good luck to Europe!

[Dalal.Holdings]

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Awesome - the US got a taste of this nonsense- and the country has rejected it.

Good luck to Europe!

 

Europe has a more deeply entrenched leftism problem. All of the universities that churn out most of the politicians, lawyers, judges, etc. Their elites, steeped in leftist ideology, genuinely think they are smarter than everyone else and therefore deserve to rule over the masses.

 

What do they want? Open borders, no CO2 (do not exhale because that will cause global warming), no capitalism, and of course--government checks in the mail for "disabilities" such as anxiety. Anyone who questions this dogma is simply labeled "hateful", "ignorant", and "greedy" and then you don't have to pay attention to them.

 

And yet British elites wonder why UK productivity has flatlined for about 20 years now...I guess they didn't learn that from their leftist Uni professors.

 

 

Edited October 26, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

It's great that people share this online so even more UK citizens can learn how to game the system. Only genius leaders of the UK who went to the "best" schools could have dreamed up such a scheme:

 

 

Edited October 26, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[John Hjorth]

45 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Europe has a more deeply entrenched leftism problem. All of the universities that churn out most of the politicians, lawyers, judges, etc. Their elites, steeped in leftist ideology, genuinely think they are smarter than everyone else.

 

What do the leftists want? Open borders, no CO2 (do not exhale because that will cause global warming), no capitalism, and of course--government checks in the mail for "disabilities" such as anxiety. Anyone who questions this dogma is simply labeled "hateful", "ignorant", and "greedy" and then you don't have to pay attention to them.

 

And yet British elites wonder why UK productivity has flatlined for about 20 years now...I guess they didn't learn that from their leftist Uni professors. ...

 

This post is to me, personally, severely biased, and actually, again, to me personally, without providing any real sources, generalizing, except : One chart, posted by an American citizen, operating out of NY, USA.

 

Stupid, idiotic politicians [left or right] are everywhere around the planet. They think they rule the whole world, while they dont.

 

Yeah, let's just flood CofB&F with all kinds of weird Reddit stuff, too!  - Personally, I think the go-to person here on CofB&F related to floods must be @gfp!

Edited October 26, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Dalal.Holdings]

54 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

This post is to me, personally, severely biased, and actually, again, to me personally, without providing any real sources, generalizing, except : One chart, posted by an American citizen, operating out of NY, USA.

 

Stupid, idiotic politicians [left or right] are everywhere around the planet. They think they rule the whole world, while they dont.

 

Yeah, let's just flood CofB&F with all kinds of weird Reddit stuff, too!  - Personally, I think the go-to person here on CofB&F related to floods must be @gfp!

 

Well, if you want to pretend that giant tectonic plates of European politics aren't moving, that's your right! 

 

A chart from the BBC on UK productivity is "biased" because it was posted by an American citizen--very interesting take. And yet someone visits London and comments on how many cranes they see and that's a useful marker on how the UK is doing from your standpoint ?

 

What we've seen with Trump, Brexit, German energy policy, Russia-Ukraine, stagnation of European economies, popularity of Le Pen, AfD, Farage/Reform, etc over the past decade should tell you that the world has changed immensely.

 

If you want to be an informed investor, you'll need to face the facts rather than pretend it isn't happening.

 

Here are more "severely biased" sources from this American citizen (and yet the sources are British...lol):

 

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/britain-is-falling-behind-the-us-and-productivity-is-largely-to-blame/

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49971853

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/28/solve-uk-productivity-puzzle-need-start-with-state/

 

Quote

When London is excluded from national productivity estimates, average living standards in the UK fall by 14 per cent, and rank below Mississippi, America’s poorest performer. In comparison, removing San Francisco, the most productive city in the US, from the American average reduces living standards by just 4 per cent. Similarly, removing Munich reduces Germany’s average by 1 per cent.

 

Edited October 26, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Sweet]

41 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Well, if you want to pretend that giant tectonic plates of European politics aren't moving, that's your right! 

 

A chart from the BBC on UK productivity is "biased" because it was posted by an American citizen--very interesting take. And yet someone visits London and comments on how many cranes they see and that's a useful marker on how the UK is doing from your standpoint ?

 

What we've seen with Trump, Brexit, German energy policy, Russia-Ukraine, stagnation of European economies, popularity of Le Pen, AfD, Farage/Reform, etc over the past decade should tell you that the world has changed immensely.

 

If you want to be an informed investor, you'll need to face the facts rather than pretend it isn't happening.

 

Here are more "severely biased" sources from this American citizen (and yet the sources are British...lol):

 

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/britain-is-falling-behind-the-us-and-productivity-is-largely-to-blame/

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49971853

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/28/solve-uk-productivity-puzzle-need-start-with-state/

 

 

Taking out London is problematic and not really comparable to taking out Munich and San Fransico.  London has a much larger GDP than either, and the UK has a smaller GDP overall than Germany and way smaller than America.

 

That’s not to say there isn’t a broader issuer, because there is.  Too big of a public sector, too much benefits. too much immigration pushing down wages and inflating things like house prices = less money for spending.  Lack of entrepreneurial spirit.

 

I don’t know, I feel like there are many causes.

 

Edited October 26, 2025 by Sweet

[John Hjorth]

39 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Well, if you want to pretend that giant tectonic plates of European politics aren't moving, that's your right! 

 

A chart from the BBC on UK productivity is "biased" because it was posted by an American citizen--very interesting take. And yet someone visits London and comments on how many cranes they see and that's a useful marker on how the UK is doing from your standpoint ?

 

What we've seen with Trump, Brexit, German energy policy, Russia-Ukraine, stagnation of European economies, popularity of Le Pen, AfD, Farage/Reform, etc over the past decade should tell you that the world has changed immensely.

 

If you want to be an informed investor, you'll need to face the facts rather than pretend it isn't happening.

 

Here are more "severely biased" sources from this American citizen (and yet the sources are British...lol):

 

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/britain-is-falling-behind-the-us-and-productivity-is-largely-to-blame/

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49971853

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/28/solve-uk-productivity-puzzle-need-start-with-state/

 

I have really nothing to add here to my post about six hours ago.

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Taking out London is problematic and not really comparable to taking out Munich and San Fransico.  London has a much larger GDP than either, and the UK has a smaller GDP overall than Germany and way smaller than America.

 

That’s not to say there isn’t a broader issuer, because there is.  Too big of a public sector, too much benefits. too much immigration pushing down wages and inflating things like house prices = less money for spending.  Lack of entrepreneurial spirit.

 

I don’t know, I feel like there are many causes.

 

 

Taking out London is problematic? The whole point of taking out London is to show how the rest of the country is doing. It's to show how unequal things are for those outside London (where many wealthy foreigners tilt the scale).

 

And it's doing worse than America's poorest state (Mississippi) in terms of living standards and productivity outside London--GDP per capita (not outright GDP). They took out SF and Munich to show that the rest of Germany & USA outside of its most productive cities are doing relatively ok economically. The same result holds for Amsterdam/Netherlands (see below). If London is taken out, UK is much poorer. This is not the case for USA/Germany/Netherlands. UK is highly unequal and London should not be used as a guide to see how the UK is doing because it has other factors (rich foreigners).

 

And you can bet that this kind of thing will affect who gets elected in UK because national elections are not going to be won just in London.

 

And even with London included, UK is at the level of...Alabama and not far from Mississippi. There are major problems with productivity in the UK and if people want to claim that's "severely biased", they're welcome to ignore reality--just don't be surprised when people like Nigel win elections.

 

The first step in fixing a problem is acknowledging that one exists. If that can't be done, it'll never be solved.

 

Here's the FT (another British source):

https://www.ft.com/content/e5c741a7-befa-4d49-a819-f1b0510a9802

 

Quote

It will surprise nobody that London accounts for an outsized share of Britain’s output, but the magnitude of the UK’s economic monopolarity is remarkable. Removing London’s output and headcount would shave 14 per cent off British living standards, precisely enough to slip behind the last of the US states. Britain in the aggregate may not be as poor as Mississippi, but absent its outlier capital it would be.

Quote

By comparison, amputating Amsterdam from the Netherlands would shave off 5 per cent, and removing Germany’s most productive city (Munich) would only shave off 1 per cent. Most strikingly, for all of San Francisco’s opulent output, if the whole of the bay area from the Golden Gate to Cupertino seceded tomorrow, US GDP per capita would only dip by 4 per cent.

Edited October 27, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Spekulatius]

Careful equating living standards with GDP/ person. Mississippi may have higher GDP/ person but it does not mean the living standard (which is more a matter of means than averages) is better.

I have not been in Mississippi but drove a quite bit through rural South Carolina and when what you see out in the weeds is really more of a second or third  world country (comparable to Thailand - I drove through that one too) than Europe. I have not seen anything close to this in Germany or France.

[cubsfan]

34 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Taking out London is problematic? The whole point of taking out London is to show how the rest of the country is doing. It's to show how unequal things are for those outside London (where many wealthy foreigners tilt the scale).

 

And it's doing worse than America's poorest state (Mississippi) in terms of living standards and productivity outside London--GDP per capita (not outright GDP). They took out SF and Munich to show that the rest of Germany & USA outside of its most productive cities are doing relatively ok economically. The same result holds for Amsterdam/Netherlands (see below). If London is taken out, UK is much poorer. This is not the case for USA/Germany/Netherlands. UK is highly unequal and London should not be used as a guide to see how the UK is doing because it has other factors (rich foreigners).

 

And you can bet that this kind of thing will affect who gets elected in UK because national elections are not going to be won just in London.

 

And even with London included, UK is at the level of...Alabama and not far from Mississippi. There are major problems with productivity in the UK and if people want to claim that's "severely biased", they're welcome to ignore reality--just don't be surprised when people like Nigel win elections.

 

The first step in fixing a problem is acknowledging that one exists. If that can't be done, it'll never be solved.

 

Here's the FT (another British source):

https://www.ft.com/content/e5c741a7-befa-4d49-a819-f1b0510a9802

 

 

If the UK, ex-London, is approaching living standards in Mississippi, that is truly frightening.

[Dalal.Holdings]

18 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Careful equating living standards with GDP/ person. Mississippi may have higher GDP/ person but it does not mean the living standard (which is more a matter of means than averages) is better.

I have not been in Mississippi but drove a quite bit through rural South Carolina and when what you see out in the weeds is really more of a second or third  world country (comparable to Thailand - I drove through that one too) than Europe. I have not seen anything close to this in Germany or France.

The FT analysis was PPP adjusted and the LSE made the claim about living standards vs Mississippi.

 

I don’t think too many outsiders have been to UK’s poorer areas

 

 

[NnnnotSoSmart]

How is this good for the future of Germany?  I suppose the "Greens" are celebrating in the streets.  Never thought France (my mother's birth country) would have more common sense than Germany.  Vive le nucléaire français !

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

54 minutes ago, NnnnotSoSmart said:

How is this good for the future of Germany?  I suppose the "Greens" are celebrating in the streets.  Never thought France (my mother's birth country) would have more common sense than Germany.  Vive le nucléaire français !

 

 

 

Shut down nuclear, rely on Russian gas, underinvest in defense/infrastructure, and let the EU impose onerous regulations on your core industries while China heavily subsidizes theirs...some of the incredible things German politicians allowed to happen over the years

 

That's what happens when your country is run by intellectuals who are incapable of thinking strategically on behalf of their countries...

 

People like Milei are providing the blueprint for places like Europe to get out of their funk.

 

As an investor in European businesses, I hope the reforms are coming