Dinar Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 2 hours ago, RedLion said: Well I'm certainly going to look into this, and consider reallocating, particularly since this is in my retirement account. Combined these are about 120 basis points of my total investment portfolio, and they're stuck in the retirement account because of the high yields. I'm assuming you're thinking that volume decline > price increases going forward and these turn into melting ice cubes? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 (edited) My taxable portfolio looks as follows. My non taxable are a bit different with more foreign and dividend stocks (BTI, PM, CPT, ESS, MNPP, PBR-A etc) Symbol Description Portfolio Weight AAP ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC 1.68% GOOGL ALPHABET INC CAP STK CL A 4.57% AMZN AMAZON.COM INC 1.57% ELV ELEVANCE HEALTH INC COM 3.33% BTI BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO LVL II ADR EACH REP 1 ORD GBP0.25 BNY 1.99% BRO BROWN & BROWN INC 1.08% CBBI CBB BANCORP INC COM 1.49% CVS CVS HEALTH CORPORATION COM USD0.01 1.89% CABO CABLE ONE INC COM 1.49% COF CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP COM USD0.01 1.62% CNC CENTENE CORP 2.55% CMCSA COMCAST CORP 3.59% CPNG COUPANG INC CL A 0.49% DDOG DATADOG INC CL A COM 0.77% DPSGY DEUTSCHE POST ADR 3.64% DFS DISCOVER FINANCIAL SERVICES 0.61% EACO EACO CORP 0.97% FRFHF FAIRFAX FINL HLDGS LTD SUB VTG ISIN #CA3039011026 SEDOL #2566351 0.86% SPAXX FIDELITY GOVERNMENT MONEY MARKET 13.23% FNF FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL FNF GROUP COM USD0.0001 0.83% FISV FISERV INC 4.5% GEF/B GREIF INC 4.81% JXN JACKSON FINANCIAL INC COM CL A 3.46% KKR KKR &CO INC COM 1.63% KRT KARAT PACKAGING INC COM 0.63% LEVI LEVI STRAUSS &CO NEW CL A COM STK 1.42% LSXMK LIBERTY MEDIA CORP DEL COM C SIRIUSXM 0.98% LIMAF LINAMAR CORP COM ISIN #CA53278L1076 SEDOL #2516022 1.46% MTB M &T BANK CORP COM USD0.50 0.58% MSGS MADISON SQUARE GRDN SPRT CORP CL A 2.49% MNPP MERCHANTS NATIONAL PROPERTIES INC 0.48% CASH PATHWARD FINANCIAL INC COM 1.0% NTDOY NINTENDO CO LTD UNSP ADS EACH REP 0.25 ORD SHS 3.76% ORI OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORP 4.34% ONEXF ONEX CORP SUB VTG ISIN #CA68272K1030 SEDOL #2659518 0.73% PAYC PAYCOM SOFTWARE INC COM USD0.01 0.88% PBR/A PETROLEO BRASILEIRO ADR REPSTG 2 PRF PFD 0.59% POAHY PORSCHE AUTOMOBIL HLDG SE UNSPONSORD ADR PFD 1.62% PSMT PRICESMART INC 1.36% PUBM PUBMATIC INC COM CL A 0.64% RBA RITCHIE BROS AUCTIONEERS COM ISIN #CA7677441056 SEDOL #2345390 1.18% LUV SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO 1.73% TSM TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING SPON ADS EACH REP 5 ORD TWD10 2.2% TPB TURNING PT BRANDS INC COM 1.32% USB US BANCORP 4.31% V VISA INC 0.89% VNT VONTIER CORPORATION COM 2.3% ZS ZSCALER INC COM 0.45% Edited March 29, 2023 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masterofnone Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 (edited) I'm retired. Berkshire 60% (44% held 20 plus years and 40% from 2008-2011) Fairfax 7% Calloways Nursery 4% PCYO 3.5% PX 3% BERY 3% TFC/WFC 3% BC 2% BABA 2% FFXDX 2% CMCL 1% 8-10 misc. small positions to keep my attention all < .5% Treasuries/ high yield savings 5% I've "diversified" from 25 years of a "portfolio" of 85% BRK Edited March 29, 2023 by Masterofnone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WayWardCloud Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 (edited) All assets: Zoom in on the "Stocks" category: In my 30s, no kids, 3 cats Edited March 29, 2023 by WayWardCloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whensthepaintdry? Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 I’m surprised how many people don’t hold Berkshire. My retirement account is very limited and is 100 percent in the S&P. Brokerage and tax advantage rough estimates: Brk: 40% AMZN: 15% Goog:10% MKL:10% Aapl:6% META:4% MSFT:2% DJCO:2% DIS:2% Less than 2 BOC NTDOY PROSY BABA WWW CC DVA BN RMAX OXY SD VICI IAC WBD PARA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 just preparing myself to lose tons of money as the apartment glut becomes ever clearer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 16 hours ago, WayWardCloud said: In my 30s, no kids, 3 cats @WayWardCloud, From the "no kids" I perceceive it as if you have a siginificant other. Please accept my deepest and sincere sympathy for living a life with 4 rulers, among them 3 owners of you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 49 minutes ago, Whensthepaintdry? said: I’m surprised how many people don’t hold Berkshire. My retirement account is very limited and is 100 percent in the S&P. Brokerage and tax advantage rough estimates: Brk: 40% AMZN: 15% Goog:10% MKL:10% Aapl:6% META:4% MSFT:2% DJCO:2% DIS:2% Less than 2 BOC NTDOY PROSY BABA WWW CC DVA BN RMAX OXY SD VICI IAC WBD PARA Because it compound at 8.07% since 12/31/2007, and not clear that it will be better in the future. Geico is being crushed by Progressive, BNSF by UNP & now CP/KCS. Todd is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 This is combined from my taxable and retirement accounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Dinar said: Because it compound at 8.07% since 12/31/2007, and not clear that it will be better in the future. Geico is being crushed by Progressive, BNSF by UNP & now CP/KCS. Todd is a joke. Interesting perspective. I've owned Berkshire since 2010/11 and been quite pleased. Here are the rolling 5 yr CAGRs for 5 yr periods ending in 2016 and later. Average is 12% with several 5 yr periods in the mid teens. What is true is that it hasn't consistently OP'd S&P500 given very very strong market returns. I'd be happy if it did 8-10% for next 10 years. surprised if <6% or >12% I agree with you on Geico. I'm not quite sure about BNSF. I think BNSF may just be structurally less profitable than UNP and BNSF has been slower to adopt PSR. I am unsure if that's a good or bad thing. Edited March 30, 2023 by thepupil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 (edited) @thepupil, why would you be happy with 8% from Berkshire, when there are so many much better opportunities in the market? By the way, it has underperformed S&P by 100 basis points per year over the last 15.25 years. Edited March 30, 2023 by Dinar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Dinar said: @thepupil, why would you be happy with 8% from Berkshire, when there are so many much better opportunities in the market? my berkshire's in my taxable account. I'd pay about a 9% of MV to the tax man if i sold. Berkshire trades at 1.4x book, so my realized proceeds would be about 1.25X book. 1.25x book for a diversified, well run, conglomerate seems more than reasonable to me.. I know the company well, it's very diversified, it should probably do okay over time and has low risk of permanent impairment of capital. It's not clear to me that I should sell it even if there are higher returning opportunities. I don't really manage my portfolio to maximize return. My portfolio has enough stuff with lower quality than Berkshire;. I haven't added to it in a while and may dilute its ~10% sizing over time with additions to other stuff. It's not perfect (PCP, GEICO issues, etc), but 10 yr BVPS CAGR is 11%/yr, not terrible by any means. Berkshire is one of the few stocks that I'm actually truly long term about. Other stocks I've had have got taken out, have seen my conviction waiver for whatever reason, etc. It's a lightly and favorably leveraged portfolio of high quality businesses and a decent tool to preserve and grow one's purchasing power. I haven't done the work to prove this, but I think my IRR > TWR with Berkshire given some sizing up/down on the margin. Probably low teens IRR over my ownership, which would techniclally have been a drag on performance, but in my view a very high return per unit of risk and per unit of stress. I don't think anyone should have too lofty expectations of Berkshire (or the market generally). Edited March 30, 2023 by thepupil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 57 minutes ago, Dinar said: Because it compound at 8.07% since 12/31/2007, and not clear that it will be better in the future. Geico is being crushed by Progressive, BNSF by UNP & now CP/KCS. Todd is a joke. Speaking of which: https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/train-carrying-ethanol-minnesota-derails-catches-fire-forcing-evacuations-small-town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Berkshire is basically an index for smart people. I dont own it currently, but have an eye on it as I hope to get there eventually. Not because I wish to wildly outperform, but because I dont wanna do shit and want something I can buy and not worry about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Berkshire is basically an index for smart people. I dont own it currently, but have an eye on it as I hope to get there eventually. Not because I wish to wildly outperform, but because I dont wanna do shit and want something I can buy and not worry about. I put my wife's IRA in BRK 100%, because I can stand her tears when I lost money for her many years ago (I bought magicjack, the stock Tilson recommended) . lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 LOL Tilson. Guy has done it all and tried it all. Coat-tailed IDK-what outta business school into his own hedge fund without any resume or track record. Piggy backed Ackman to gain cred. Was one of the pioneers of using media/social media to promote his positions. Stole some college kids LL thesis and went on 60 minutes in one of the most underrated performances I've ever seen...probably what inspired Teary Eyed Bill's "Hell is Coming" schtick. Now sells subscriptions and does philanthropy LOL. Legend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whensthepaintdry? Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 @thepupil I also don’t know if UNP is really out performing by much. Increasing operating margins can be done while decreasing reliability and safety. I’m not sure if I want BRK to operate in that manner to beat expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whensthepaintdry? Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Not to mention brk has matched/outperformed marginally without lofty multiple expansion and a modest book ratio. Yes I would love for everyone to wake up and value my assets to silly prices tomorrow, but while I’m accumulating I like to pretend I’m happy they don’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Whensthepaintdry? said: Not to mention brk has matched/outperformed marginally without lofty multiple expansion and a modest book ratio. Yes I would love for everyone to wake up and value my assets to silly prices tomorrow, but while I’m accumulating I like to pretend I’m happy they don’t. this is mostly true. P/B has not really expanded. BUT, book value does include stock portfolio valued at market and some of those have enjoyed multiple expansion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whensthepaintdry? Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Good point! Does anyone think in the next 5 years or so BRK will just become a cannibal story or is that pretty much already happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, Whensthepaintdry? said: Good point! Does anyone think in the next 5 years or so BRK will just become a cannibal story or is that pretty much already happening. I think the buyback has been helpful. a) nicely executed at good prices, mostly in '20/'21 b) has limited the growth of excess capital both in absolute terms and as a percentage of book. 2019 was $108B of cash/ST bills against $348B equity (31%), 2022 is $124B/$472B or 26%. Without the ~$60B of buybacks, ceteris paribus, Berkshire would have just piled up more excess capital. It's a good tool to have , particularly when the old man dies. Should it have come sooner? In my opinion, yes. Should they just pay out all earnings via buyback and not be so stingy and price sensitive? Also yes. But Buff dog's the goat and you should trust his decisions over mine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crs223 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 I don’t know what exactly is a cannibal, but BRK is not indiscriminately buying back stock. Only when it’s cheap. And from looking at the month-to-month purchases, “cheap” is not just about the stock price. WEB must be considering the changing intrinsic value and/or opportunity cost of spending that money. Re BRK CAGRs, for me it’s about trust first and CAGR second. Right or wrong, I completely trust BRK to do the right thing for me while I’m at work, sleeping, market crashing, or rallying. My preference would be to find a company/fund just as trustworthy but 1,000 times smaller (more CAGRs). But until that happens I’m with BRK. Based on recommendations here (thank you) I’ll be watching Prosus and Constellation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 18 minutes ago, Whensthepaintdry? said: Good point! Does anyone think in the next 5 years or so BRK will just become a cannibal story or is that pretty much already happening. @Whensthepaintdry?, Time will tell. As always, it will depend on the share price compared to other available opportunities at a given moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedLion Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 2 hours ago, Gregmal said: Berkshire is basically an index for smart people. I dont own it currently, but have an eye on it as I hope to get there eventually. Not because I wish to wildly outperform, but because I dont wanna do shit and want something I can buy and not worry about. It worries me that everyone is so confident that there will never be anything to worry about at Berkshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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