Insurance Brokers (MMC, AON, AJG, WTW, BRO)

[dealraker]

11 hours ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

Thanks Dealraker for the story. 50% of the reason I bought the membership was for your commentary.

 

You have been following the industry much longer than I have. Has there been competitor or new entrant that has tried to threaten then industry, but been unsuccessful? 

coffeecaninvestor I am reasonably cautious as to making a statement on that even given that there are new entrants (relatively new anyway) such as RYAN, Baldwin (BRP), and Goosehead that have obviously attained some success.  I did for a short time have a small investment in BRP, but sold and am not following it.  I do not follow these three just listed though so you'll have to read here (past posts) as to those and our posters views- views I'd give positive credit too for sure.  longterminvestor, spekulatius, and gfp...I'd read their stuff if you haven't.

 

Some time ago Fairfax's (they owned 40%) even listed on the NYSE for a short time.  That was the most successful shorter term investment I've ever made - unfortunately Fairfax/Prem decided to sell it - so yes your statement and question above has merit.  As longterminvestor mentioned on RYAN....well, there are opportunities.

 

That's why I occasionally post - keeping this thread alive should be a profitable endeavor with little long term risk of capital loss.  So we should occasionally come aboard here to mention things, and of course that's what I'm trying to do.  We have some quite capable posters here, some good sound investing should come of it.  

 

I just love a good business, a long term business to hold and discuss.  I get attached my wife says, I don't like to let go.  She says I have not only "relationships with people" that are meaningful, but also "relationships with things, concepts, and models" that I stay with.  

 

Rambling, good night.  

 

 

[coffeecaninvestor]

45 minutes ago, dealraker said:

coffeecaninvestor I am reasonably cautious as to making a statement on that even given that there are new entrants (relatively new anyway) such as RYAN, Baldwin (BRP), and Goosehead that have obviously attained some success.  I did for a short time have a small investment in BRP, but sold and am not following it.  I do not follow these three just listed though so you'll have to read here (past posts) as to those and our posters views- views I'd give positive credit too for sure.  longterminvestor, spekulatius, and gfp...I'd read their stuff if you haven't.

 

Some time ago Fairfax's (they owned 40%) even listed on the NYSE for a short time.  That was the most successful shorter term investment I've ever made - unfortunately Fairfax/Prem decided to sell it - so yes your statement and question above has merit.  As longterminvestor mentioned on RYAN....well, there are opportunities.

 

That's why I occasionally post - keeping this thread alive should be a profitable endeavor with little long term risk of capital loss.  So we should occasionally come aboard here to mention things, and of course that's what I'm trying to do.  We have some quite capable posters here, some good sound investing should come of it.  

 

I just love a good business, a long term business to hold and discuss.  I get attached my wife says, I don't like to let go.  She says I have not only "relationships with people" that are meaningful, but also "relationships with things, concepts, and models" that I stay with.  

 

Rambling, good night.  

 

 

I’ve basically have worked in insurance for my entire career so far and it’s always amazed me how well these brokers get paid, and how little disruption there is.. it’s pretty rare to even see a change in broker. From what I can tell it is mainly relationship driven which is hard to for me to wrap my head around moat wise. I should probably take a hint and just buy some brokers, and add to them over time.. I missed Copart when I worked at The Hartford and used their services on a daily basis. It would have compounded at a 30% CAGR over the past decade…let’s not compound the stupidity of missing two great businesses. 

[Hektor]

10 hours ago, gfp said:

one of the reasons I have religiously looked at form 4 insider purchases every day for my entire career is that you can get alerted to a drop in price followed by insiders bingeing on share for companies you wouldn't have noticed or been aware of any other way - you also get to know insiders in certain companies that are always great signals.  Selling gives you no real useful information but an insider purchasing additional shares in the open market with their own after-tax hard earned cash - when they likely already have a significant portion of their net worth tied up in the stock - can be a really great screener or lead generator or whatever

@gfpthank you. Do you track form 4 for the businesses you are interested in? Are there places to look up for all form 4 filed each day?

[gfp]

8 hours ago, Hektor said:

@gfpthank you. Do you track form 4 for the businesses you are interested in? Are there places to look up for all form 4 filed each day?

 

The point is to look at all of the Form 4's for purchases every day.  That is the way you come across things you don't specifically know to look for in the first place.  I've been doing it for a while, so I primarily use this old website because that is what I am used to:

https://www.insider-monitor.com/insider_stock_purchases.html

(on the above site, you click the date of the filing to get to the source document at sec)

 

Most people these days use 

http://openinsider.com

 

dataroma has some insider purchase information at the bottom of the home page but it is only purchases on "guru" stocks or whatever they call it.

 

Over time you will learn to read the filings and understand which are meaningful and which are just share grants, option exercises, people like Horizon Kinetics / Murray Stahl who buy the same securities every single day, CEF arbitrageurs, etc..

Edited May 28 by gfp

[oscarazocar]

21 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

The point is to look at all of the Form 4's for purchases every day.  That is the way you come across things you don't specifically know to look for in the first place.  I've been doing it for a while, so I primarily use this old website because that is what I am used to:

https://www.insider-monitor.com/insider_stock_purchases.html

(on the above site, you click the date of the filing to get to the source document at sec)

 

Most people these days use 

http://openinsider.com

 

dataroma has some insider purchase information at the bottom of the home page but it is only purchases on "guru" stocks or whatever they call it.

 

Over time you will learn to read the filings and understand which are meaningful and which are just share grants, option exercises, people like Horizon Kinetics / Murray Stahl who buy the same securities every single day, CEF arbitrageurs, etc..

 

Dataroma has a good search site for insider buys that shows a running list of form 4 info and you can filter for various things.

 

https://www.dataroma.com/m/ins/ins.php?t=m&po=1&am=10000&sym=&o=fd&d=d

[Hektor]

47 minutes ago, gfp said:

The point is to look at all of the Form 4's for purchases every day.  That is the way you come across things you don't specifically know to look for in the first place.  I've been doing it for a while, so I primarily use this old website because that is what I am used to:

https://www.insider-monitor.com/insider_stock_purchases.html

(on the above site, you click the date of the filing to get to the source document at sec)

 

Most people these days use 

http://openinsider.com

 

dataroma has some insider purchase information at the bottom of the home page but it is only purchases on "guru" stocks or whatever they call it.

 

Over time you will learn to read the filings and understand which are meaningful and which are just share grants, option exercises, people like Horizon Kinetics / Murray Stahl who buy the same securities every single day, CEF arbitrageurs, etc..

Thank you @gfp

[Hektor]

26 minutes ago, oscarazocar said:

Dataroma has a good search site for insider buys that shows a running list of form 4 info and you can filter for various things.

 

https://www.dataroma.com/m/ins/ins.php?t=m&po=1&am=10000&sym=&o=fd&d=d

Thank you @oscarazocar

[dwy000]

Citizens Insurance in Florida is seeking another mid teens increase in rates.  That sucks for Florida property owners but bodes well for the brokers, especially those concentrated down there. 

[dealraker]

2 hours ago, dwy000 said:

Citizens Insurance in Florida is seeking another mid teens increase in rates.  That sucks for Florida property owners but bodes well for the brokers, especially those concentrated down there. 

So at our weekly centuries old house porch sitting Sunday which was enlarged by a birthday party my brother-in-law/cousin (adoption not incest) business partner, not even looking at me, jawbones me with, "Hammerhead (that's his name for me)....you got cha some Navidia?"  And immediately adds, "DAMN that stock has tripled for me....of course I ain't got much of it."

 

As a guy (that's me) who both is almost 50% insurance brokers and the one who put his (my bro in laws) entire 401K into BRO I surrounded and conquered the amicable bastard with, "Dude....tally what you've made since buying that techie puppy with your gains from Brown and Brown."  He leans his head over sideways and backwards giving me the 'you win asshole' look and responds, "Made more money with that stock that nobody knows or cares a damn thing about...."   

 

And so it goes.  He has a damn BOAT LOAD of BRO.  So do I!  Go Florida.

 

Gotta end somehow though.  This insurance cycle is crazy.   Stocks like BRO messing about - stocks that nobody knows or cares about while thay all talk Navidia and and we discuss Fairfax.  

Edited yesterday at 04:28 PM by dealraker

[Gregmal]

LOL yea been having a few of those moments with people last month or so. "What do you think are good AI investments?"..."how come we dont own NVDA?"..."do you think we should look at some tech stocks"....and its so pleasing to just dismissively answer....No, nope, nothing, not interested, thanks!