longterminvestor Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 BRP reported today with a net loss for the year 2X previous year. Producer comp/EE expense as percentage portion of topline commission increased to 75%. That is unbelievably HIGH. For comparison, a shrewd disciplined operator like BRO is closer to 53% (shooting for under 50%). Share count for BRP is up 5.8% YOY and up 26% since 2021. Related figure, share based comp expense, is up to $60M in 2023 from $47M in 2022 and $19M in 2021. They lose money on operations (NET operating loss is $42M) and then throw in $119M of interest expense and it boggles the mind on how this is investable. The business only paid $1.2M in taxes because of the carry forward losses and continued loss on operations. Factor in taxes on the expenses in ops and this thing can't make a profit for a long...long time. Sorry I forgot, management's metric is adjusted EBITDA and the T stands for taxes. Amortization expense seems aggressive as well (dont know this as well as I wish I did). Here are some numbers comparing to BRO (maybe someone can help). BRP Goodwill as of 2023: $1.4B BRP Amortization for 2023: $92M BRO Goodwill as of 2023: $7.3B BRO Amortization for 2023: $166M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dealraker Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 18 minutes ago, longterminvestor said: BRP reported today with a net loss for the year 2X previous year. Producer comp/EE expense as percentage portion of topline commission increased to 75%. That is unbelievably HIGH. For comparison, a shrewd disciplined operator like BRO is closer to 53% (shooting for under 50%). Share count for BRP is up 5.8% YOY and up 26% since 2021. Related figure, share based comp expense, is up to $60M in 2023 from $47M in 2022 and $19M in 2021. They lose money on operations (NET operating loss is $42M) and then throw in $119M of interest expense and it boggles the mind on how this is investable. The business only paid $1.2M in taxes because of the carry forward losses and continued loss on operations. Factor in taxes on the expenses in ops and this thing can't make a profit for a long...long time. Sorry I forgot, management's metric is adjusted EBITDA and the T stands for taxes. Amortization expense seems aggressive as well (dont know this as well as I wish I did). Here are some numbers comparing to BRO (maybe someone can help). BRP Goodwill as of 2023: $1.4B BRP Amortization for 2023: $92M BRO Goodwill as of 2023: $7.3B BRO Amortization for 2023: $166M I appreciate your participation on this forum. I sold BRP based on the clarity you brought to the table and never looked back. When I was younger, and poorer, I'd have spent far more time doing my DD, but I've gotten lazy I guess. LOL! Thanks again longterminvestor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longterminvestor Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Seems like the voting machine is alive and well while the weighing machine is colleting dust with this name. Just trying to learn and be an active investor doing the work. Writing it out helps me frame in my head and challenges me to find clarity. Anonymously sharing my work is easy however I would let my mouth run with confidence on this name with management if they ever showed up on my doorstep. Just can't get my financial mind around BRP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwy000 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 (edited) 40 minutes ago, longterminvestor said: Seems like the voting machine is alive and well while the weighing machine is colleting dust with this name. Just trying to learn and be an active investor doing the work. Writing it out helps me frame in my head and challenges me to find clarity. Anonymously sharing my work is easy however I would let my mouth run with confidence on this name with management if they ever showed up on my doorstep. Just can't get my financial mind around BRP. Just listened to the call. Boy it's tough to wade through the cash vs adjusted numbers. FYI, on the broker compensation, a portion of the earnouts from businesses acquired were allocated by the sellers to people who were not "selling shareholders" (sounds like the owners gave a portion of the earnout to the rainmakers who otherwise weren't actually shareholders). As a result, they had to reallocate a portion of the earnout payments into compensation and that drove the number up to the very high levels you pointed out. It's why EBITDA margins were similar despite the higher comp number. They still have a massive amount of earnout to pay during 1Q. They've sold the wholesale business to help fund it ($34m rev business with $5 EBITDA that they sold for $59m cash) Free cash flow from operations is forecast at $165-195m for full year 2024. That will all go to earnouts I guess but those should largely be done in 2024. Edited February 29 by dwy000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longterminvestor Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 I listened to call as well, quote: "add back for compensation expense in Q4 was $8M and expected to 7M in Q1 2024". Small potatoes in relation to comp expense overall. If you want to compare same type of measure, look to RYAN. They have similar issue and running same earn out provision thru comp expense, however RYAN's comp to rev ratio starts at 64% and is adjusted to 59% as percentage of revenue. 64% actual and 59% adjusted is still high for RYAN however starting from a lower base % helps in the long run as well as RYAN aggressively hires organically in addition to acquisition earnout passthrough which will be reduced over time. Dont know if I could call $59M full value for wholesale brokerage biz at $34M topline with these eye popping numbers we are seeing with purchases - kinda weak at $5M/15% "adjusted" EBITDA (adjusted in quotes for effect). Sounds like AmWins gifted them the $59M with a wink saying we will take this off your hands but you better send us some business. BRP obviously needs cash. My sense is they had too much turn over in that business and just needed to dump it. Color on future acquisitions was fuzzy - I pictured in my mind a fanciful CEO tap dancing for analysts. So difficult to watch when you see everyone else making money hand over fist in the space and these guys just get a pass for posting loss after loss after loss. 5 years as a public company and BRP has never made a dime posting a loss each year. Cumulatively thats $351M in total net loss for 5 years. I am looking forward to seeing how the movie plays out for sure. I'm not going anywhere. I have been pretty hard on these guys and will continue to be until there is reason otherwise. Maybe someday I could own this at a price commensurate with its value, once all the babies are thrown out with the bathwater - I guess I gotta be open to that years and years down the line from where I sit today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 These group of stocks had a small correction. It’s a little bit cheaper now. Any suggestions which one is the best one to buy here for long term coffee can holding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 No suggestion here, but would imagine Dealraker has some insight into that. I’ve gone with a basket approach and hold all of them (AJG, AON, BRO, MMC and WTW) plus ERIE. Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dealraker Posted Sunday at 04:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:10 PM (edited) 10 hours ago, Lance said: No suggestion here, but would imagine Dealraker has some insight into that. I’ve gone with a basket approach and hold all of them (AJG, AON, BRO, MMC and WTW) plus ERIE. Thanks Lance The unflattering truth is that while I've owned the brokers except for BRP and RYAN since 1994 I've only added to BRO and WTW since then and that proves I'm not in any way a good caller on these thus far delightful businesses. I just keep thinking - for instance - that BRO is expensive, and it never turns out that way, and 41% of my net worth as to stocks is my AJG shares so I'm not going to buy more. I did influence my investment club to buy AJG at $36 or so in 2015 (or whenever it dropped...and was selling for 15x with a 3.8% div), but personally didn't buy more. I did buy AJG for my wife's parents trust recently at $185 and sometime in the early 2000's period my brother-in-law asked me to "manage" $800,000k of his stuff and I impulsively told him to put it all into BRO---- which he did! That was a home run for him, but it wasn't some well-thought out analysis from me and he has so much money he doesn't know what to do with it so I wasn't at all worried that he would get hurt making a large commitment there and I figured at worst it would do pretty good. Edited Sunday at 04:14 PM by dealraker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted Sunday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:40 PM 28 minutes ago, dealraker said: sometime in the early 2000's period my brother-in-law asked me to "manage" $800,000k of his stuff and I impulsively told him to put it all into BRO---- which he did! I love it every time you mention this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longterminvestor Posted Tuesday at 02:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:10 PM Recent writeup VIC on RYAN. RYAN SPECIALTY HOLDINGS INC.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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