Fairfax Stock - New All Time High

[MMM20]

@UK yeah my bad, I should've quoted or tagged @Spooky @Jaygo

[Spooky]

5 hours ago, MMM20 said:

I'm just trying to understand what point @Spooky @Jaygo were making

 

A lot of this is macro speculation so take it with a grain of salt but Canada seems to be in a tough spot right now. Fairfax has been doing quite well vs the TSX recently and I would guess it is a better place to be in the short to medium term. Purchasing power parity has been eroding. Housing investment has been a higher percentage of Canadian GDP (~9% vs OECD average of ~5%) and Canadians have the highest household debt in the G7. The rise in interest rates is starting to bite, causing people to spend less since more disposable income is eaten by higher interest payments (At least this is what I am seeing with people in Toronto).

 

Financial stocks account for ~34% of the TSX 60 and the Canadian banks had been shifting a lot of their loan books to mortgages rather than typical commercial loans. I understand that roughly 20% of mortgages on the big banks books are now in negative amortization. A lot of the banks have been announcing layoffs. Also, our economy is still pretty resource dependent and with China and the world economy slowing down there is less demand for resources. Oil prices have also been softening and the Canadian economy is overweight energy. Canada also has a persistent productivity gap with the US of about 20%.

[Haryana]

Touched a new high in CAD 1300 today.

 

Last updated: Jan 10, 2024, 5:46 PM ET

Source: QuoteMedia

 

Open

1,268.06

Day High/Low

1,300.99/1,243.46

52 Week High/Low

1,299.79/795.67

[Daphne]

I’m guessing algorithms kicked in at 1300 prompting the almost immediate sell off.

[Hamburg Investor]

Fairfax trades at 990 Euro at Tradegate in Germany for a record in Euro. That‘s 1.436 cad and would be a new alltime high too. Up around 2.5%. Tradegate Germany is thin trading with stocks from Canada and it doesn‘t always tell you the opening price at TSX; but still - it‘s a record.

[Haryana]

Fresh new high in CAD after 50 days. 

 

 

As of May 9, 2024 11:50am

Previous Close Price

CAD 1,552.23

Day Range

CAD 1,552.86–1,575.31

52-Week Range

CAD 911.02–1,575.31

[dartmonkey]

Yesterday's close was 1562.45, with an intraday high of 1575.31. Closed today at a new high, 1,571.02, with a higher intra-day/all-time high of 1580.01.

 

Previous Close	1,562.45
Open	1,560.74
Bid	1,568.56 x 0
Ask	1,572.00 x 0
Day's Range	1,559.77 - 1,580.01
52 Week Range	932.00 - 1,580.01

 

 

With Fairfax very actively repurchasing in April, we should not be happy about this, but...

[SafetyinNumbers]

7 hours ago, dartmonkey said:

Yesterday's close was 1562.45, with an intraday high of 1575.31. Closed today at a new high, 1,571.02, with a higher intra-day/all-time high of 1580.01.

 

Previous Close	1,562.45
Open	1,560.74
Bid	1,568.56 x 0
Ask	1,572.00 x 0
Day's Range	1,559.77 - 1,580.01
52 Week Range	932.00 - 1,580.01

 

 

With Fairfax very actively repurchasing in April, we should not be happy about this, but...

The higher the multiple is the better. 

[Xerxes]

Beautiful. 
 

Stelco and “trump trade” giving it a boost over $1,600 

[Haryana]

On 10/6/2023 at 11:21 PM, UK said:

 

I would expect the next 52 Week High to be no less than 1,710.12:)

 

 

You got that today in less than a year -

 

Last updated: Sep 19, 2024, 9:51 PM ET

 

Source: QuoteMedia

 

Open

1,711.40

Day High/Low

1,711.40/1,673.51

52 Week High/Low

1,711.40/1,070.00

 

 

[Haryana]

On 10/7/2023 at 2:58 AM, Haryana said:

 

I like to applaud every $10 higher just like US congress applauds every other statement of the President.

 

 

 

Maybe I would change that to every $100 higher due to the frequency with which it is happening and likely to be continued

[UK]

2 hours ago, Haryana said:

 

You got that today in less than a year -

 

Last updated: Sep 19, 2024, 9:51 PM ET

 

Source: QuoteMedia

 

Open

1,711.40

Day High/Low

1,711.40/1,673.51

52 Week High/Low

1,711.40/1,070.00

 

 

 

Dammit...so now, following a tradition of good analysts, I must upgrade the target to the next nice number:)

 

Not be to greedy after such a run, lets make it 2000 CAD for the next 52 weeks*.

 

*further upgrades will be provided if necessary.

 

Edited September 20 by UK

[Thrifty3000]

Up 35% YTD. While the S&P 500 trails solidly behind at 18%.

[UK]

1 hour ago, Haryana said:

 

Maybe I would change that to every $100 higher due to the frequency with which it is happening and likely to be continued

+1

[Thrifty3000]

Also, given the average P&C company trades at 12 times earnings, and Prem’s latest baseline medium-term earnings expectation of $125 per share, then I’m thinking we still have room to run.

[Thrifty3000]

6 minutes ago, UK said:

 

Damit...so now, following a tradition of good analysts, I must upgrade the target to the next nice number:)

 

Not be to greedy after such a run, lets make it 2000 CAD for the next 52 weeks*.

 

*further upgrades will be provided if necessary.

^ Boooo. Too conservative!!

[UK]

35 minutes ago, Thrifty3000 said:

^ Boooo. Too conservative!!

 

OK, as a good analyst, after drinking my coffee and succumbing to public pressure (and this first target was not even nice number after some thought) I update the target for the next 52w to 2170.11 CAD (with further update up to max 2710.11 CAD still possible). Better:)? 

 

Edited September 20 by UK

[TwoCitiesCapital]

10 hours ago, Thrifty3000 said:

Up 35% YTD. While the S&P 500 trails solidly behind at 18%.

 

Honestly quite amazing given the underperformance of the S&P in 2022 and again in 2023 - and not by small amounts. 

 

2020 and early 2021 had Fairfax coiled like a spring. As did the positive developments of things like the sale of Pet Insurance, Digit's explosive growth, hard insurance markets, and the opportunistic share repurchases. 

 

A nice confluence of luck and skill with a depressed share price set us up for one hell of a 5 year run. 

 

Edited September 20 by TwoCitiesCapital

[cwericb]

What truly amazes me is the number of members of CBOF who DO NOT own shares in Fairfax. Have often seen people share their portfolios and  FFH is missing. Head scratcher for me.

[UK]

6 hours ago, cwericb said:

What truly amazes me is the number of members of CBOF who DO NOT own shares in Fairfax. Have often seen people share their portfolios and  FFH is missing. Head scratcher for me.

+1. Even now. At least not jumbo position:)

 

Edited September 21 by UK

[This2ShallPass]

How do you all feel about position sizing? 

 

It keeps getting bigger for me and is now at 33%. Starting to get a bit scary, I have trimmed once and thinking of bringing it to 30% again..but my cash is also starting to pile up.

 

[Blugolds]

26 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said:

How do you all feel about position sizing? 

 

It keeps getting bigger for me and is now at 33%. Starting to get a bit scary, I have trimmed once and thinking of bringing it to 30% again..but my cash is also starting to pile up.

 

 

Never quite understood tremendous aversion to large position sizes, I know all the cliche mottos, concentrate to get rich, diversify to stay rich etc. What are the alternative options for the funds. Looking back at my investing track record over the decades, I've "lost" way more money exiting or trimming positions than I ever have from making a totally wrong call and staying in too long. 

 

I also think it depends on the individual position. For me personally, if an "appropriately" sized position grows to "outsized" and it is one of my SWAN stocks it doesn't phase me one bit, and they have. Probably a lot of people would look at my port and the 3 largest positions of BRK, COST and FRFHF and think Im at best, reckless, and at worst, crazy...but it doesnt phase me a bit. I guess it all depends on individual risk tolerance and how you define that. Swings, even if large, have never really bothered me if I have conviction in the name, BRK recent ATH to where we are today was a huge swing in my port, didnt phase me because I felt like those numbers were overvalued anyway and while it has retreated in the short term, over the long term I'm confident that it will continue to provide satisfactory returns on the initial investment. I said it in a previous post in a different thread, with high conviction I actually get more excited and active with BRK the lower the price goes, BRK at 1.6 P/B (if that is the ballpark metric used, becoming less relevant) might make you feel good when you glance at the port, but I never consider it a "real" current number, manic Mr Market is having an "episode", just like him shouting BRK at 1.0. If he's around 1.36 then he is probably back on his meds and sounding relatively reasonable. 

 

Back to FRFHF, position has grown significantly, I still dont think its done, and if it goes parabolic, as long as nothing comes up that I would consider a significant red flag, even if it becomes what I would consider richly valued I dont sell, I dont really care what the score of the game in the 1st qtr is, you just have to win the 4th qtr. 

 

I made an excel spreadsheet with all port positions, position size, CB etc as well as what I consider current fair value for those names with regard to expected return on initial investment, if those names are on track and look to continue (everything in the business looks good) then I'm good. Sometimes my personal present port value in Excel can vary wildly from Fidelity. I pay much closer attention to Excel than Fidelity as the spreadsheet is my own, and Fidelity is the manic market. For example my personal excel sheet never reflected BRK at $480/sh but Fidelity did, inversely my current excel sheet shows FRFHF value higher than what Fidelity is currently telling me. 

 

I dont know if that answers your question, but thats the way I think about position sizing, there really isnt ever a time for me that something gets a "bit scary". The numbers in excel vs Fidelity can vary significantly but as long as Im satisfied with the numbers in Excel and remain on track, I dont really care what Fidelity tells me or how large a position has grown, especially if I'm not seeing something better that is an obvious slam dunk and that doesnt happen often.

 

The last time I abandoned Excel was probably Spring of 2020 for BRK, and Spring of 2022 for FRFHF, positions in other names, while still on track in excel didnt look as exciting as BRK,FRFHF so that money was moved into BRK, FRFHF. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

11 hours ago, This2ShallPass said:

How do you all feel about position sizing? 

 

It keeps getting bigger for me and is now at 33%. Starting to get a bit scary, I have trimmed once and thinking of bringing it to 30% again..but my cash is also starting to pile up.

 

It’s a little over 40% for me and my most recent move was an add in early August. My plan is not to sell any until I can forecast forward ROE below 10%. In terms of external catalysts, I don’t see the point of trimming any until the 60 add is announced at least. 

[73 Reds]

10 hours ago, Blugolds said:

 

Never quite understood tremendous aversion to large position sizes, I know all the cliche mottos, concentrate to get rich, diversify to stay rich etc. What are the alternative options for the funds. Looking back at my investing track record over the decades, I've "lost" way more money exiting or trimming positions than I ever have from making a totally wrong call and staying in too long. 

 

I also think it depends on the individual position. For me personally, if an "appropriately" sized position grows to "outsized" and it is one of my SWAN stocks it doesn't phase me one bit, and they have. Probably a lot of people would look at my port and the 3 largest positions of BRK, COST and FRFHF and think Im at best, reckless, and at worst, crazy...but it doesnt phase me a bit. I guess it all depends on individual risk tolerance and how you define that. Swings, even if large, have never really bothered me if I have conviction in the name, BRK recent ATH to where we are today was a huge swing in my port, didnt phase me because I felt like those numbers were overvalued anyway and while it has retreated in the short term, over the long term I'm confident that it will continue to provide satisfactory returns on the initial investment. I said it in a previous post in a different thread, with high conviction I actually get more excited and active with BRK the lower the price goes, BRK at 1.6 P/B (if that is the ballpark metric used, becoming less relevant) might make you feel good when you glance at the port, but I never consider it a "real" current number, manic Mr Market is having an "episode", just like him shouting BRK at 1.0. If he's around 1.36 then he is probably back on his meds and sounding relatively reasonable. 

 

Back to FRFHF, position has grown significantly, I still dont think its done, and if it goes parabolic, as long as nothing comes up that I would consider a significant red flag, even if it becomes what I would consider richly valued I dont sell, I dont really care what the score of the game in the 1st qtr is, you just have to win the 4th qtr. 

 

I made an excel spreadsheet with all port positions, position size, CB etc as well as what I consider current fair value for those names with regard to expected return on initial investment, if those names are on track and look to continue (everything in the business looks good) then I'm good. Sometimes my personal present port value in Excel can vary wildly from Fidelity. I pay much closer attention to Excel than Fidelity as the spreadsheet is my own, and Fidelity is the manic market. For example my personal excel sheet never reflected BRK at $480/sh but Fidelity did, inversely my current excel sheet shows FRFHF value higher than what Fidelity is currently telling me. 

 

I dont know if that answers your question, but thats the way I think about position sizing, there really isnt ever a time for me that something gets a "bit scary". The numbers in excel vs Fidelity can vary significantly but as long as Im satisfied with the numbers in Excel and remain on track, I dont really care what Fidelity tells me or how large a position has grown, especially if I'm not seeing something better that is an obvious slam dunk and that doesnt happen often.

 

The last time I abandoned Excel was probably Spring of 2020 for BRK, and Spring of 2022 for FRFHF, positions in other names, while still on track in excel didnt look as exciting as BRK,FRFHF so that money was moved into BRK, FRFHF. 

+1. I never understood the concept of "positioning".  Why buy any position unless you know it as well as possible and have enough confidence to own it large?  Imagine if a small business owner "positioned" his/her interest.  Or a real estate owner.   The objective is for it to grow.  Generally diversification equates to mediocrity.    Rather than diversifying, maintain sufficient cash or liquidity to ride out down cycles and also so you can take advantage of them.  I fully realize that this is not the prevailing view (and would get me fired from most financial advisor jobs) but there are reasons why some folks achieve massive financial success and diversification is not one of them.

[Luke]

52 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

It’s a little over 40% for me and my most recent move was an add in early August. My plan is not to sell any until I can forecast forward ROE below 10%. In terms of external catalysts, I don’t see the point of trimming any until the 60 add is announced at least. 

+1 

 

Just love the set up still at current valuation. Fairfax has lots of room if a recession hits and will do well if it doesnt too. Also, i could not find anything else where i would feel comfortable allocating as much money as this position is and i really dont want to be in cash  Maybe buy even more Prosus but i like my current mix. 

Edited September 22 by Luke