gfp Posted February 3 Posted February 3 3 minutes ago, formthirteen said: G***r? LOL ... I gotta ask, is this a reference to a certain homosexual hook up app?
formthirteen Posted February 3 Posted February 3 6 minutes ago, gfp said: LOL ... I gotta ask, is this a reference to a certain homosexual hook up app? Yes
KPO Posted February 3 Posted February 3 55 minutes ago, rogermunibond said: These are piker contrarian ideas. A contrarian idea is going long CVNA in late 2022. Or long EOSE in late 2024. Completely hated, dog sh*t stock, that nobody thought had any chance. What's your real contrarian idea? Something so contrarian you'd be embarrasses to voice it. I’ll bite. TDOC is one that’s been left for dead in recent weeks. If strategically positioned properly this is a company that should be on the right side of easing healthcare cost inflation. They also have both scale and a decent balance sheet. They just need to ease off the shareholder dilution of recent years.
bizaro86 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 1 hour ago, rogermunibond said: These are piker contrarian ideas. A contrarian idea is going long CVNA in late 2022. Or long EOSE in late 2024. Completely hated, dog sh*t stock, that nobody thought had any chance. What's your real contrarian idea? Something so contrarian you'd be embarrasses to voice it. Maybe something like BYND would meet your criteria (not an actual recommendation, but it's certainly contrarian at this point) Screen for things down 90%+ from 52 week highs and try and figure out what will survive?
rogermunibond Posted February 3 Posted February 3 54 minutes ago, KPO said: I’ll bite. TDOC is one that’s been left for dead in recent weeks. If strategically positioned properly this is a company that should be on the right side of easing healthcare cost inflation. They also have both scale and a decent balance sheet. They just need to ease off the shareholder dilution of recent years. @KPO that's an interesting idea. FCF positive and decent balance sheet. Good Integrative Care business. Ramping Better Help insurance business, currently only in 12 states + DC. There's a pretty clear pathway to grow BH. There's a thread for TDOC
Spekulatius Posted March 7 Posted March 7 On 2/3/2026 at 12:00 PM, Gregmal said: PGY Shat the bed big time too. Most contrarian ideas won’t have an easy ride. However PYPL has run up since earnings. I have some SaaS stocks that are up 40% on basically no News ($HUBS). CSU is up ~25% from the bottom. Getting the timing right is not easy. I think the right place to look is checking for stocks that are down by large amounts after earnings in somewhat embattled sectors. Some financials are looking interesting -CRBG, SLM (concern over credit deterioration).
frommi Posted March 7 Posted March 7 Put options on oil majors is probably the biggest contrarian idea i can think of at the moment.
Gregmal Posted March 7 Author Posted March 7 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: Shat the bed big time too. Most contrarian ideas won’t have an easy ride. However PYPL has run up since earnings. I have some SaaS stocks that are up 40% on basically no News ($HUBS). CSU is up ~25% from the bottom. Getting the timing right is not easy. I think the right place to look is checking for stocks that are down by large amounts after earnings in somewhat embattled sectors. Some financials are looking interesting -CRBG, SLM (concern over credit deterioration). Paypal is kinda a mediocre melting ice cube large(relatively speaking)cap masquerading as value. If anything I think over the years we ve seen that when there’s these huge sector wide sell offs, you wanna own the shitcos if and when you expect a turn in sentiment.
backtothebeach Posted April 2 Posted April 2 OWL anyone? Seems like only a mad person would buy here - but this is the contrarian thread. "Investors asked to withdraw 40.7% of the shares in technology-focused Blue Owl Technology Income Corp (OTIC), and 21.9% of shares in larger fund Blue Owl Credit Income Corp (OCIC), the funds said in two shareholder updates, citing preliminary figures. Blue Owl said it would limit payouts to 5% of the shares in each fund."
rogermunibond Posted April 2 Posted April 2 Blue Owl Corporation and Tech Fund bonds aren't selling off, so it's probably money good if you can stomach the volatility.
Castanza Posted April 2 Posted April 2 Some good discussion on $OWL here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tim-travis-on-private-credit-%24owl-%24obdc-and-%24msdl/id1454112457?i=1000756099316
backtothebeach Posted April 2 Posted April 2 1 hour ago, Castanza said: Some good discussion on $OWL here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tim-travis-on-private-credit-%24owl-%24obdc-and-%24msdl/id1454112457?i=1000756099316 Thank you. Listening to podcasts like these makes me realize that I'm such a tourist in this space, lol. I dipped my toe, though, miniscule position (0.3% notional).
Castanza Posted April 2 Posted April 2 (edited) 53 minutes ago, backtothebeach said: Thank you. Listening to podcasts like these makes me realize that I'm such a tourist in this space, lol. I dipped my toe, though, miniscule position (0.3% notional). Same, too complex for me....as with banks I don't want to have to worry about some crock of shit stewing away on the back burner just waiting to boil over.. Maybe I'll put on a trade, but I can't do anything big with conviction. I don't have the bandwidth or skill to dig through their contracts. There is easier hurdles out there. Edited April 2 by Castanza
UK Posted April 3 Posted April 3 14 hours ago, Castanza said: I don't want to have to worry about some crock of shit stewing away on the back burner just waiting to boil over.. +1
Red Lion Posted April 4 Posted April 4 On 4/2/2026 at 7:42 AM, backtothebeach said: OWL anyone? Seems like only a mad person would buy here - but this is the contrarian thread. "Investors asked to withdraw 40.7% of the shares in technology-focused Blue Owl Technology Income Corp (OTIC), and 21.9% of shares in larger fund Blue Owl Credit Income Corp (OCIC), the funds said in two shareholder updates, citing preliminary figures. Blue Owl said it would limit payouts to 5% of the shares in each fund." I added some more to OWL under $10, it's a relatively small position, but I think it could be a homerun from here. I have a much larger position in APO which can also do above average returns from here and I think it's a lot less risky.
frommi Posted April 4 Posted April 4 Be careful with private credit And if you know Soros theory of reflexity it is possible that the redemptions itself lead to increased cost of capital/debt and than to defaults in this space.
backtothebeach Posted June 6 Posted June 6 Given the unanimous opinion on this board: Long SPCX on IPO day.
backtothebeach Posted June 6 Posted June 6 On 2/3/2026 at 5:14 PM, KPO said: I’ll bite. TDOC is one that’s been left for dead in recent weeks. If strategically positioned properly this is a company that should be on the right side of easing healthcare cost inflation. They also have both scale and a decent balance sheet. They just need to ease off the shareholder dilution of recent years. TDOC is up 40% since February.
Sweet Posted June 6 Posted June 6 1 hour ago, backtothebeach said: Given the unanimous opinion on this board: Long SPCX on IPO day. I do think the shine has come of Musk turd a bit, but FOMO is strong, so I’m 50/50 on direction. It’s just a hard avoid for me. ———— Being contrarian is hard and over rated. I only go long, so I’d say long complex software where the data and relationships are the moat rather than the software itself. I still like Harley Davidson as a mean reversion play to 40 - 50s (2x) - though I don’t currently own it. The universe is signalling to me though, I keep seeing Harley’s on the road and I rarely saw them previously.
backtothebeach Posted June 6 Posted June 6 24 minutes ago, Sweet said: Being contrarian is hard and over rated. Yeah, just having some fun here. Although, sometimes the stuff that seems absolutely ridiculous, where the thought of buying it almost makes you puke, can do exceptionally well.
KPO Posted June 7 Posted June 7 3 hours ago, backtothebeach said: TDOC is up 40% since February. Still holding in my speculative growth basket. Lol
gfp Posted June 7 Posted June 7 2 hours ago, backtothebeach said: Yeah, just having some fun here. Although, sometimes the stuff that seems absolutely ridiculous, where the thought of buying it almost makes you puke, can do exceptionally well. My specialty! My guiding star is if you don't want to puke a little and your wife doesn't roll her eyes deeply you do not have a variant perception. Sometimes the best investments you can't even talk about in public because they are so unpopular it would reflect poorly on you and your family. And then there is Berkshire, which you can mention in polite company. And that's OK too
Cod Liver Oil Posted June 7 Posted June 7 (edited) @gfp does Coupang make you throw up a little bit in the back of your throat? Edited June 7 by Cod Liver Oil
gfp Posted June 7 Posted June 7 1 hour ago, Cod Liver Oil said: @gfp does Coupang make you throw up a little bit in the back of your throat? No it doesn't but at $6 per share it would fit the bill
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