China

[Spekulatius]

58 minutes ago, crs223 said:

Assuming this is true…

 

I have to say I am impressed with the USA.  I assumed we were too consumed with preferred pronouns and other “intangibles” to resist China.

 

Im particularly scared about education in US vs China — e.g. SAT not required for college entry.

 

China unleashed COVID, fentanyl, and IP theft for decades — all we did was send a harassment squad to Taiwan for a lousy photo op.

I think the semiconductor sanctions were the right move, done fairly late in the game. They would have been better done 5 years ago.

 

As for college without taking SAT score - yes you can do that, but you won’t get into a good one. My son is at that stage as senior and without taking SAT or ACT test and scoring relatively high, the chances that get into a decent college are small.

[crs223]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the semiconductor sanctions were the right move, done fairly late in the game. They would have been better done 5 years ago.

 

Winston Churchill allegedly said “you can always trust the United States to do the right thing… after all other options have been exhausted”

[Spekulatius]

Maybe it just my bias, but this CCP Congress feels pretty dour. This does not help either:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3196157/chinese-military-must-move-faster-become-world-class-fighting

 

Her is what Xi Xinping said about the military:

The use of military power needs to be normalised and used in diverse ways,” he said in the report published on Sunday.

“We need to be able to stage military operations readily, create a secure environment, deter and control risks and conflicts, and win regional wars.”
 

 

 

“Win regional” wars is probably a snipe at Russian attacking Ukraine and losing. “ Normalized” and “Diverse ways” in the context of military power does not sound all that promising either.

 

I think it’s pretty clear at this point that if you play in the Chinese sandbox as a western country investor, you are at the risk of losing your marbles.

 

With the semiconductor sanctions, the Chinese semiconductor companies probably all will become state sponsored enterprises, if they haven’t been already. Quite likely, that applies to suppliers and ancillary sectors as well.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Spekulatius

[boilermaker75]

15 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

 They can develop this tech too, but it takes time and they may never be able to catch up if the west keeps innovating. 

 

I used to work on GaAs semiconductor devices. We had a saying, GaAs was the semiconductor of the future, and it always will be. It came from knowing so many more researchers were working on silicon that silicon would always be ahead.

[james22]

15 hours ago, crs223 said:

I have to say I am impressed with the USA.  I assumed we were too consumed with preferred pronouns and other “intangibles” to resist China.

 

You don't have to be impressed with the US to recognize our competitors have much more fundamental problems.

[crs223]

30 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

You don't have to be impressed with the US to recognize our competitors have much more fundamental problems.

 

What would you say is Chinas most fundamental problem?  And the US?

[Spekulatius]

12 minutes ago, crs223 said:

 

What would you say is Chinas most fundamental problem?  And the US?

Lousy demographics

Lousy geostrategic location

Lack of resources and no way to protect their trade routes

Lousy leadership.

I think Zeihan is broadly correct, although he is oversimplifying and he is sensantionalistic.

[james22]

24 minutes ago, crs223 said:

 

What would you say is Chinas most fundamental problem?  And the US?

 

The fundamental advantages: free speech, free markets, and free elections.

 

China's (and Russia's) problems are obviously fundamental.

 

The US problems (political polarization) don't compare.

[Sinbius]

Lousy demographic...well Europe and US too have lousy demographic right?

 

Lousy geostrategic location...it's the country with the most long term investment about global trade...

 

Lack of resources...Has a way better work force than europe and US...

 

Lousy leadership...have you looked at Biden and the FED (they are both a big joke) or what's happening in UK or Europe?

 

There is no country without big sins and structural problems...because human nature is always the same...

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Sinbius

[crs223]

US's most fundamental problem is political polarization?  I'd say a more fundamental problem for the US is declining work ethic, which compounds.  But maybe every generation says that.  Maybe decline in rule of law (at least in CA).

 

I'll watch the China Decline video... I wonder how they explain this:

 

 

 

[james22]

2 hours ago, Sinbius said:

There is no country without big sins and structural problems...because human nature is always the same...

 

Sure, but Western culture has real advantages.

[james22]

1 hour ago, crs223 said:

US's most fundamental problem is political polarization?

 

Call it a lack of cultural confidence, if you prefer.

 

I'm trying to keep this as apolitical. Obviously, both sides believe (as I do) the other the problem.

[Spooky]

1 hour ago, crs223 said:

US's most fundamental problem is political polarization?  I'd say a more fundamental problem for the US is declining work ethic, which compounds.  But maybe every generation says that.  Maybe decline in rule of law (at least in CA).

 

I'll watch the China Decline video... I wonder how they explain this:

 

 

 

 

It is one thing for China to catch up to the West by copying previous advancements and stealing intellectual property but it is another for them to innovate from here to surpass the West. Have we seen that their central / top down planning economy can successfully innovate / compete with the US in terms of innovating new productivity enhancing technologies? Does an open society with free speech result in more innovation? Also, it seems to me like under Xi they are starting to deviate from the reforms and policies first initiated under Deng Xiaopeng that resulted in their spectacular growth and returning more heavily to marxist / isolationist ideology which will not bode well for their economic growth from here, especially given their demographic headwinds. For all their faults, Western democracies and the US seem to be making better decisions than autocracies / closed societies like China and Russia. 

 

 

[Spooky]

4 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Call it a lack of cultural confidence, if you prefer.

 

I'm trying to keep this as apolitical. Obviously, both sides believe (as I do) the other the problem.

Personally I think the US' biggest challenge is their under investment in public education over the last 40 years.

[Viking]

2 hours ago, crs223 said:

 

What would you say is Chinas most fundamental problem?  And the US?

China: as economy gets bigger: resource allocation

- property bubble blowing up for 20 years is great example of this

- centrally planned economy works great at early stages of development; does terrible in large, sophisticated economy

 

US: ripping of basic fabric of democracy; it is fragile and very difficult to sew back together. My guess is founders of the country are likely rolling over in their graves at what is going on in country today (on both sides of the aisle).

[Spekulatius]

Regardless what you believe to be correct, i think it is not a good idea to invest across political fault lines i the future. I think it did not matter as much in the past, but it sure looks like it's going to matter now.

 

If you are located in China, it is probably better to invest in China, or get your money out in  safe place. If you are located in a western country, it is not a good idea to invest in China.

 

Besides that, I think Keith Smith aka @Packer16 has shown some evidence (white paper?), that investing in countries with autocracy's delivers subpar returns on average. I mean even the return in Chinese stocks are nothing to write home about, the rapid increase in GDP notwithstanding. That's true even before the Chinese stocks crashed in late 2021.

 

Even if you do a gross sanity check on the situation, why do you believe that investing alongside this neo Maoist is a good idea? Makes no sense to me. There is not way to get rid of him either.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3196532/congress-delegates-embrace-communist-party-slogan-pledging-support-xi-jinping?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

Edited October 19, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Dinar]

39 minutes ago, Spooky said:

Personally I think the US' biggest challenge is their under investment in public education over the last 40 years.

I vehemently disagree.  Lousy public education is a huge problem, but that is not due to underspending.  In NYC, the per pupil budget is $40K per kid in public schools, (of which only $10K reaches the school), meanwhile Catholic schools charge $6K per pupil.  

[maplevalue]

  

 

Comments on China around 25:30

[Castanza]

13 minutes ago, Dinar said:

I vehemently disagree.  Lousy public education is a huge problem, but that is not due to underspending.  In NYC, the per pupil budget is $40K per kid in public schools, (of which only $10K reaches the school), meanwhile Catholic schools charge $6K per pupil.  

Yeah I agree with this. Private schooling is the way forward. Public sector has become too political with the Unions involved and it's hurting the education quality. Even private school in inner cities with lottery admittance far out perform public schools in "well to do areas". 

[james22]

3 hours ago, Spooky said:

Personally I think the US' biggest challenge is their under investment in public education over the last 40 years.

 

I don't believe investment is very much related to education at all, rather the content of what is taught. 

[Spooky]

I'm not American so I don't want to get political about it but the facts are that the US : 1) is lagging behind its developed peers in terms of investments in public education as a percentage of GDP and public spending (and this spending has not kept up with inflation over time); 2) educational outcomes have been sliding relative to its developed peers over the last three decades as shown by rankings in math and science scores; 3) in terms of early childhood education, the United States is one of six countries that does not report any educational spending in the OECD.

 

Given the rise of AI and automation in the future, work forces are going to need to be more skilled and educated. There is a lot of human capital in the US that could be better utilized.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_spending_on_education_(%_of_GDP)

 

https://educationdata.org/public-education-spending-statistics

 

30 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

I don't believe investment is very much related to education at all, rather the content of what is taught. 

 

Government's should definitely view this through the lens of public investment (as with all government spending ideally) - measuring the ROI of the amount spent against and objective metric / outcomes. My personal view is that we should de-emphasize the content of what is being taught but rather teach people how to learn / think critically / overcome mental biases.

 

[Dinar]

2 minutes ago, Spooky said:

I'm not American so I don't want to get political about it but the facts are that the US : 1) is lagging behind its developed peers in terms of investments in public education as a percentage of GDP and public spending (and this spending has not kept up with inflation over time); 2) educational outcomes have been sliding relative to its developed peers over the last three decades as shown by rankings in math and science scores; 3) in terms of early childhood education, the United States is one of six countries that does not report any educational spending in the OECD.

 

Given the rise of AI and automation in the future, work forces are going to need to be more skilled and educated. There is a lot of human capital in the US that could be better utilized.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_spending_on_education_(%_of_GDP)

 

https://educationdata.org/public-education-spending-statistics

 

 

Government's should definitely view this through the lens of public investment (as with all government spending ideally) - measuring the ROI of the amount spent against and objective metric / outcomes. My personal view is that we should de-emphasize the content of what is being taught but rather teach people how to learn / think critically / overcome mental biases.

 

Spooky, why do you think that this is a good metric?  If Zimbabwe has $500 per capital GDP and spends $50 per capita on education and US has $60K GDP and spends $5K per capita on education, we are underspending?  

How reliable is your data anyway?  Spending does not equal quality, why do you think so?  In Newark NJ (USA), spending per pupil was tripled and the outcomes did not change.  

A lot of people send their kids to private schools, is parental spending  captured in the statistics you have sited?  If so, how?  Universities in the US are mostly either tuition or privately funded, how do you adjust for that in your statistics?  

Bottom line: 

a) Statistics you site are very likely to be grossly incorrect

b) Your assumption that if one spends 1% of his income on education and someone with 100x the income spends 0.5%, the latter underspends is hard to justify/understand

c) Your assumption that more money equals better outcomes is questionable, to say the least.  I will bet you that one thousand dirt poor Chinese/Indian/Russian immigrants going to a crappy schools with falling plaster will drastically outperform a high income private school in the US.   

 

You do not want to get political but you parrot the talking points of the left and the teachers' unions without thinking.  If you do not want to get political, do you research, and use critical thinking that you rightly state schools should teach rather than advocate policies that the left has argued for, implemented and saw fail for decades in the US.  

[crs223]

My fourth grader has never had homework.  Had a parent-teacher conference yesterday.  teacher gave me a six page handout on doing math with “feelings”.

 

(wasn’t as bad as i’m making it sound — basically the idea is to estimate to get close then fine-tune — but the message is clear: de-emphasize the rote algorithm)

 

We’ll see how this works out in 20 years. Wonder if they still do homework over in China.

 

I’ll spare you all my thoughts on the lack of discipline from parents nowadays.

 

Anyhow… this is the source of my China angst.  I worry we are wussifying the next generation.

[Dinar]

3 minutes ago, crs223 said:

My fourth grader has never had homework.  Had a parent-teacher conference yesterday.  teacher gave me a six page handout on doing math with “feelings”.

 

(wasn’t as bad as i’m making it sound — basically the idea is to estimate to get close then fine-tune — but the message is clear: de-emphasize the rote algorithm)

 

We’ll see how this works out in 20 years. Wonder if they still do homework over in China.

 

I’ll spare you all my thoughts on the lack of discipline from parents nowadays.

 

Anyhow… this is the source of my China angst.  I worry we are wussifying the next generation.

You are 100% correct, sadly.

[Sweet]

Agree with Spek, don’t think it is wise to have money in China.  It could disappear quite easily and I don’t need help losing money 

 

Disagree with comments about the US and education.  Not everyone needs to be highly educated.  I think risk taking and entrepreneurial spirit in the US remains strong and they will remain the innovators and leader in the global economy for decades provided the politics calms down.

Edited October 20, 2022 by Sweet