Russia-Ukrainian War

[UK]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

@UK,

 

I respectfully towards you and your right to privacy take the freedom to ask about your nationallity, mother tongue and location. I will naturally respect your refusal to provide this information, if you do so.

 

My own similar information is as follows: I'm a Dane, my mother tongue is Danish, and I'm located in  the city Odense, in the central part of Denmark.

 

I'm asking because the basis of your posts and their backdrop are important to me for my understanding of your posts.

 

This whole calamity / sh*tshow is quite close to me from a geographical perspective, as a Danish citizen. I consider Denmark at risk if this event escalates and gets somehow out of control.

 

Thank you in advance for your time and your posts in this topic.

 

John, nice to know you! No problem, I am from Vilnius, Lithuania. It is some 180 km from Minsk, Belarus and only some 40 km from their new nuclear power plant in Astravets. My mother tongue is Lithuanian, but I also understand and speak Russian well, since my generation was probably one of the last, which still had Russian language on the full schedule at school (and on tv). Actually I love Russian classic literature etc. In my previous job, some 10+ years ago, I also worked on a project in Ukraine (in a town somewhere near Odessa), and my former employer was working on some other projects in a country, including in Mariupol, right until this February. Btw this summer we were visiting Billund, not that far from a place you live, very nice place for a fans of Lego:)

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by UK

[Spekulatius]

On 12/22/2022 at 10:34 AM, Xerxes said:

Tucker never fails 

 

 

Tucker Carlson has basically become a Russian propaganda asset. He has been repeating repeating Russia propaganda in some cases, unfiltered. It’s not the first time, or second time or third time. He does this over end over. 

 

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, UK said:

 

John, nice to know you! No problem, I am from Vilnius, Lithuania. It is some 180 km from Minsk, Belarus and only some 40 km from their new nuclear power plant in Astravets. My mother tongue is Lithuanian, but I also understand and speak Russian well, since my generation was probably one of the last, which still had Russian language on the full schedule at school (and on tv). Actually I love Russian classic literature etc. In my previous job, some 10+ years ago, I also worked on a project in Ukraine (in a town somewhere near Odessa), and my former employer was working on some other projects in a country, including in Mariupol, right until this February. Btw this summer we were visiting Billund, not that far from a place you live, very nice place for a fans of Lego:)

 

I was in Vilnius and Kaunas 35 years ago, what an amazing place, and a culture shock for a someone coming from the Soviet Union.  It was more European than Soviet.  

[Dinar]

@Spekulatius, forget Tucker.  The more important issue is that the support for Ukraine will drastically erode over time as the cost born by the West keeps growing over time while the people get worse off.  

[UK]

4 hours ago, Dinar said:

I was in Vilnius and Kaunas 35 years ago, what an amazing place, and a culture shock for a someone coming from the Soviet Union.  It was more European than Soviet.  

 

Dinar, thanks for your kind words. I am sure though, that at the time of your visit, not many here felt that different from the rest of the Union:). And then, since almost right after your visit, but especially over the last 20 years, the change was really big and thankfully for the better.

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by UK

[Blugolds11]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Tucker Carlson has basically become a Russian propaganda asset. He has been repeating repeating Russia propaganda in some cases, unfiltered. It’s not the first time, or second time or third time. He does this over end over. 

 

 

Agreed, the guy turns my stomach. 

 

There is literally no filter on the guy, spewing verbal diarrhea. The fact that this guy even has air time says a lot more about Fox, than it does about whatever "problem" he is targeting. 

 

Social Media certainly contributes to division in the country...but even without it, as long as MSM puts these jokers front and center for views, its not gonna get better. Its sad really..

[Xerxes]

23 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Tucker Carlson has basically become a Russian propaganda asset. He has been repeating repeating Russia propaganda in some cases, unfiltered. It’s not the first time, or second time or third time. He does this over end over. 

 

 

I see it more as FOX SNL. Comedy.

Sadly this thread will continue well into 2023 and beyound.

 

-----------------------------------

I was thinking to the earlier days of the war, and the "Ukraine is Weak" episode of Seinfeld came to mind as the one constant theme for 2022. 

 

I did a bit of digging - powered by Google Search. The episode was aired on January 1995.

The Label Maker - Wikipedia

 

A month earlier, in December, 1994, the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, U.K., and the U.S. signed agreement to provide Ukraine with security assurances for returning the nuclear warheads to Russia'. 

 

A rather funny coincidence. 

 

 

 

-----------------------------------

 

Back to serious stuff.

 

Much has said about the 1994 memorendum. 

 

What has been unsaid is the fact, even if Ukraine had chosen to keep the nuclear warheads, they did not have the "command code" which comes from the Kremlin. Having physical warheads and having control over them are two different things.

 

In that alternative scenario, where Ukraine had chosen to keep the nukes, the historical timeline would have gone a different direction entirely, STARTING in 1994 and onward, AND not the way most Westerners would think => Which starts in 2014, and assumes Ukraine has nukes and Et Voila:

 

- Crimea would not have happened.

- Feb 22, 2022, would not have happened.

- Ukraine part of NATO

 

That change in that decision point in time, in 1994, would have maybe put Ukraine on path to become a pariah state over the next years and perhaps a closer partner to Russian Federation. Or U.S. could have teamed up with Russia to militarily remove those nukes. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

This recent episode of 12/22 is really good

 

War on the Rocks | Listen to Podcasts On Demand Free | TuneIn

[John Hjorth]

We need mentally to be prepared  for the worse and at the same time try to aim for maintaining a constructive attitude based on realitistic optimism. ["This too shall pass"]

 

I think @Spekulatius said it the best on the former Simple Machines software platform for this board in his signature in his posts : "To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles".

 

[Important footnote kicked in here! : That signature was before @Spekulatius changed it in his posts to "Life is too short for cheap wine".]

 

Perhaps all this adds up to it would be more meaningful to seriously assult some good wine than to post in this topic. 

Edited December 26, 2022 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

42 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

We need mentally to be prepared  for the worse and at the same time try to aim for maintaining a constructive attitude based on realitistic optimism. ["This too shall pass"]

 

I think @Spekulatius said it the best on the former Simple Machines software platform for this board in his signature in his posts : "To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles".

 

[Important footnote kicked in here! : That signature was before @Spekulatius changed it in his posts to "Life is too short for cheap wine".]

 

Perhaps all this adds up to it would be more meaningful to seriously assult some good wine than to post in this topic. 

LOl, cud’s for keeping track of this stuff. I really do like the first quote which is from Ben Gurion, the founding father of modern Israel.

 

The fact that Israel exists is in my opinion a miracle. The fact that Ukraine is still there and fighting and perhaps winning may also be considered a miracle.

 

Sadly, I think this thread will still be active in 2024 because I don’t  think the war will be truly over in a year. That‘s more of a tragedy but wars tend to be long drawn out tragedies.

 

Back to my not so cheap wine.

[John Hjorth]

The posts in this topic by @UK and @Dinar are to me a so frustrating read [, but thank you to you both for them!]. It's simply difficult to think about what to think, because propaganda is an information tool [weapon] used on both sides in the war.

 

Personally I think the baltic states Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania are all in the same boat as Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Germany and Poland, because of the strategic importance of the Baltic Sea for everyone, including Russia.

 

It's a calamity and and a sh*t show, imposing a potential threat on our way of life and our future.

[Dinar]

@John Hjorth, John, I would not be so pessimistic.  While the situation in Ukraine is awful, and unclear when it will end and how, I would be shocked if there is any long term impact on the Baltics, let alone Denmark/Sweden/Finland, besides possibly higher energy prices as these countries diversify from Russia.

 

I cannot imagine after the bloody nose that Russia has received in Ukraine, that it would attack any of those countries.  In addition, given that all of them are either Nato members or about to become Nato members I would not be worried.  

 

I hope that you had a merry Christmas, and I wish you and your family, a healthy, happy, prosperous and peaceful 2023!

Edited December 27, 2022 by Dinar

[ValueArb]

On 12/25/2022 at 5:15 PM, Dinar said:

@Spekulatius, forget Tucker.  The more important issue is that the support for Ukraine will drastically erode over time as the cost born by the West keeps growing over time while the people get worse off.  

 

I don't see it. Biden isn't going to backtrack and he's in office another 2 years. From the US perspective aid to Ukraine is the cheapest defense of the west in our history, we spent trillions protecting Europe from the USSR. For less than $70B so far, Russia has lost more than 100,000 soldiers, 1,500 tanks, 1,800 infantry Fight Vehicles, 299 Artillery units, 280 Armoured Personnel Carriers, 161 MRLS, 83 SAM systems, 67 warplanes and 74 helicopters.

 

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

 

Russia can't replace these losses easily or quickly. It will take many years, even decades given the damage to their economy the war and sanctions have caused. This will greatly enhance the security of Europe for many years to come, as long as Ukraine does not lose this war. If Russia is able to conquer all of Ukraine, it will be able to rebuild faster, and staff a significantly larger military so that in a decade it will be a greater risk than ever.

[Dinar]

@ValueArb, 

 

a) Russia is NOT USSR, it has a fraction of military might population

b) It is not up to Biden, Congress has to go along.

c) Western Europe is NOT US

d) Russia is not a treat to the US, China is

[no_free_lunch]

I disagree Dinar, Russia is still a threat.  Russia is openlty threatening the US with nuclear annihilation.   

 

On the USSR, some of the propagandists, Dugin for instance, aspire to be something similar to the USSR and with this invasion of Ukraine, Putin is sure acting like the USSR (or similar) is the destination.   This is further reinforced by the ongoing threats against Kazakhstan.

 

Russia is an ally of convenience to China and weakening them is clearly to the US benefit prior to conflict with China.

 

I agree that europe is not the US, it would just be nice to see them get their big boy pants on and take care of their own business rather than recklessly attack and then depend on the US.  Europe has now openly admitted (by virtue of supplying arms in minor doses compare to America) that they rely on the US for their defense and that such defense IS needed.

Edited December 27, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Ulti]

I think NATO defense spending had been going up prior to the invasion…

just as with energy, they are at least making the difficult choices and realize the errors of their ways.

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/invasion-of-ukraine-implications-for-european-defense-spending

[ValueArb]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

@ValueArb, 

 

a) Russia is NOT USSR, it has a fraction of military might population

b) It is not up to Biden, Congress has to go along.

c) Western Europe is NOT US

d) Russia is not a treat to the US, China is

 

a) Everyone knows this. The biggest increase in European security came when the USSR collapsed and instead of NATO facing a roughly 2-1 disadvantage in divisions, things have switched to a roughly 2-1 advantage. The problem is that if the Ukraine falls, that advantage diminishes significantly. As Putin moves more former republics under his control, our edge diminishes more.

 

b) Congress will go along. The only people in congress against supporting Ukraine are a small minority of whackos like Hawley, Paul, Boebert, Gosar, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.

 

c) Western Europe isn't part of the US, everyone knows that. Like Puerto Rico they are US protectorates that owe their freedoms to the US and the trillions we've spent since 1942 protecting them while they coasted along barely spending anything on defense.

 

d) China has committed very few acts of military aggression over the last 150 years. The last time it invaded someone, it got its butt kicked by Vietnam in the 1970s. Russia has constantly been invading its neighbors for hundreds of years.  

Edited December 27, 2022 by ValueArb

[Dinar]

24 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

a) Everyone knows this. The biggest increase in European security came when the USSR collapsed and instead of NATO facing a roughly 2-1 disadvantage in divisions, things have switched to a roughly 2-1 advantage. The problem is that if the Ukraine falls, that advantage diminishes significantly. As Putin moves more former republics under his control, our edge diminishes more.

 

b) Congress will go along. The only people in congress against supporting Ukraine are a small minority of whackos like Hawley, Paul, Boebert, Gosar, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.

 

c) Western Europe isn't part of the US, everyone knows that. Like Puerto Rico they are US protectorates that owe their freedoms to the US and the trillions we've spent since 1942 protecting them while they coasted along barely spending anything on defense.

 

d) China has committed very few acts of military aggression over the last 150 years. The last time it invaded someone, it got its butt kicked by Vietnam in the 1970s. Russia has constantly been invading its neighbors for hundreds of years.  

Not everyone in Congress received bags of cash the way Biden did via Burisma.  Calling people you disagree wackos is not a way to convince people that you are right.  Have you polled Congress?  Henry Kissinger is a wacko too?

 

I think that you are drastically mistaken regarding the support Ukraine has among the American public and Congress.  How about this slogan?  Instead of giving $45bn for Ukraine cut personal income taxes by 3%.    I bet that would pass by a big margin in a nationwide referendum.

 

Divisions do not determine much - look at Germans in WWII, USSR vs Finland, US vs Iraq, US vs North Vietnam, US vs China/North Korea in the Korean War or every Arab-Israeli War.  

 

Who cares what Russia did 150 years ago?  Mongols conquered half the world in 1200s and is anyone afraid of them now? Alexander the Great did quite a bit who is afraid of Macedonia now?   I am just quaking in my boots at the fear of Italian invasion, after all Romans waged wars of aggression for 1000 years!  Are you busy learning Italian?

 

Russia is a paper tiger.  China wants to avenge past wrongs - loss of Siberia to Russia, Taiwan, et all.  Listen and read what President Xi and company say.  Look at them muscling India.  

 

In any case, in my opinion, the best outcome here for everyone involved is a peace treaty or a truce.  In a continued war, nobody wins, and Russia where a number of village have neither electricity nor gas can suffer way more than we in the US or Europe will agree to.   Look at all of the "accidents" that keep happening to the US electricity grid and substations.  We are very vulnerable.  

[ValueArb]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

Not everyone in Congress received bags of cash the way Biden did via Burisma.  Calling people you disagree wackos is not a way to convince people that you are right.  Have you polled Congress?  Henry Kissinger is a wacko too?

 

I think that you are drastically mistaken regarding the support Ukraine has among the American public and Congress.  How about this slogan?  Instead of giving $45bn for Ukraine cut personal income taxes by 3%.    I bet that would pass by a big margin in a nationwide referendum.

 

Divisions do not determine much - look at Germans in WWII, USSR vs Finland, US vs Iraq, US vs North Vietnam, US vs China/North Korea in the Korean War or every Arab-Israeli War.  

 

Who cares what Russia did 150 years ago?  Mongols conquered half the world in 1200s and is anyone afraid of them now? Alexander the Great did quite a bit who is afraid of Macedonia now?   I am just quaking in my boots at the fear of Italian invasion, after all Romans waged wars of aggression for 1000 years!  Are you busy learning Italian?

 

Russia is a paper tiger.  China wants to avenge past wrongs - loss of Siberia to Russia, Taiwan, et all.  Listen and read what President Xi and company say.  Look at them muscling India.  

 

In any case, in my opinion, the best outcome here for everyone involved is a peace treaty or a truce.  In a continued war, nobody wins, and Russia where a number of village have neither electricity nor gas can suffer way more than we in the US or Europe will agree to.   Look at all of the "accidents" that keep happening to the US electricity grid and substations.  We are very vulnerable.  

 

A peace treaty can't be signed until after Russia withdraws from Crimea and the Donbas, otherwise it would be a disaster. Russian leaders know that in negotiations everything they get is a win.

 

If Russia stops fighting, the war ends.

 

If Ukraine stops fighting, it ceases to exist.

 

 

[Dinar]

21 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

A peace treaty can't be signed until after Russia withdraws from Crimea and the Donbas, otherwise it would be a disaster. Russian leaders know that in negotiations everything they get is a win.

 

If Russia stops fighting, the war ends.

 

If Ukraine stops fighting, it ceases to exist.

 

 

You are being melodramatic and choose to ignore history, Russia does not have the troops to subjugate Ukraine, particularly in light of probable guerrilla movement.

There is no way in hell that any Russian leader will give up Crimea (look up the history of the place - it was never part of Crimea until it was gifted by Khruschev, himself a Ukrainian, in 1954), and if that prevents an armistice, then I am very sorry for Ukrainians, since the war will continue and Western support will dry up.  

[UK]

On 12/27/2022 at 6:29 PM, John Hjorth said:

The posts in this topic by @UK and @Dinar are to me a so frustrating read [, but thank you to you both for them!]. It's simply difficult to think about what to think, because propaganda is an information tool [weapon] used on both sides in the war.

 

Personally I think the baltic states Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania are all in the same boat as Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Germany and Poland, because of the strategic importance of the Baltic Sea for everyone, including Russia.

 

It's a calamity and and a sh*t show, imposing a potential threat on our way of life and our future.

 

John, naturally I think about all this every day, since February and i am no way a big military expert, but I would like to share with you, perhaps overly optimistic, views. First, in the neat term I think Russia is incapable of any major conventional offense as they are even on defense in Ukraine. Furthermore, I read somewhere that they moved like 80-90 per cent of their battle ready personnel from Kaliningrad and Saint Petersburg regions, including some serious equipment, like S-300 or S-400. I think it is highly unlikely they would open second front anywhere, but especially with NATO, in the near term. Even in Ukraine, today they lack basic ammo, like munitions for howitzers, there are videos online of Russian soldiers berating shamelessly Shoigu and Gerasimov for that. And it seems even in that front Ukrainians starting to gain advantage. Then situation in the Baltic region will improve substantially as soon as Sweden and Finland will be accepted to NATO, probably foregone conclusion. Also, just like with Ukraine, a year ago the line of thought was prevailing, that Baltic states or other countries there would be indefensible in case of Russian conventional attack, discussion was about days or weeks of possible resistance. Not anymore. Nobody today thinks it would be impossible to defend our self anymore. And lastly, our country just made its largest military purchase ever, there are plans to increase active personnel substantially and there are no hesitation to spend or do to whatever it takes to increase our defense capabilities substantially. Baltic states have vary little debt and we can afford a lot to spend and we will spend a lot I am sure. Poland alone, if what I read about their plans are true, will be enormous military force after 2-3 years, not to speak about Germany etc. So like I said, I am no expert at all, but I think a time when Russia could threaten region conventionally has ended. Probably never was, only perception. It seems Russia regime deliberately was weakening and kept its military weak, because of its own insecurities, not to speak about corruption. Ukraine fiasco just uncovered its true state. Maybe I am overly optimistic, but that is how I feel today and it is 180 opposite from a year ago or even 6 month ago:)

 

I agree with Dinar, that much bigger threat to US and the world is China. I have no strong opinion on China, but last year has shaken this idea of Munger, that China is much more civilized country etc. I still think it is, I mean the regime in China is I think perhaps way more civilized than the regime in Russia, but not so sure about this anymore:). I also think, that China and Russia may have enormous inherent tensions between them. Lastly, I have no idea if that is possible, but if somehow Russia and Belarus could become normal and pro western countries again (perhaps after some painful changes at the top), I think that would be wonderful. Would not bet on this, but one could have some dreams:)

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by UK

[SharperDingaan]

NATO has far more money than Russia, and much of the spend is just domestic recycling within their local arms industry. Weapon, missile, and bullet inventories need to be fired off, NATO reaps the benefit of replacement war time spending just as Russia does, the destruction remains in Ukraine, and armories update with better and more up to date replacements.

 

But like any good business, when costs > benefits, negotiate 'peace' (Feb-23 peace summit). The keys to power run the show (dictators playbook), and their mouthpieces execute ..... Most would expect the Ukraine to get everything back including the Crimea, a new Eastern European world-order 'agreement', and the early retirements of both leaders. The political solution.  

 

Political solutions take a while, but the result is stability for a good 10-30 years until the cycle repeats. Given that Europe averages at least one war every 70 years or so, 30 years of stability is not a bad outcome.

 

SD 

[Xerxes]

19 hours ago, Dinar said:

Who cares what Russia did 150 years ago?  Mongols conquered half the world in 1200s and is anyone afraid of them now? Alexander the Great did quite a bit who is afraid of Macedonia now?   I am just quaking in my boots at the fear of Italian invasion, after all Romans waged wars of aggression for 1000 years!  Are you busy learning Italian?

 

All correct except the Italian example. Italy might be geographically located where the centre of Roman institutions were based, but I would hardly call them “heir to the Roman republic”. 
 

Italy as a unified kingdom created in the 19th century can definitely draw legacy and heritage from the many Italian kingdoms and republics (Genoa, Venice, twin kingdom of Sicily and Naples, Turin etc) but not the empire of Rome. Just as Iraq cannot draw heritage from its Babylonian past. 
 

To me, the heir to the Roman Empire, if any,  was the Ottoman Empire. Of course you had Moscow as the “third Rome”, The Habsburgs, Napoleonic empire and that of Charles V all seeking “Imperial” legitimacy as heir to Rome. 
 

Any of those above is far closer to Rome than the Italians or other post-476 AD Germanic kingdoms. I will definitely get the Italians angry with my post. 

[Dinar]

21 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

All correct except the Italian example. Italy might be geographically located where the centre of Roman institutions were based, but I would hardly call them “heir to the Roman republic”. 
 

Italy as a unified kingdom created in the 19th century can definitely draw legacy and heritage from the many Italian kingdoms and republics (Genoa, Venice, twin kingdom of Sicily and Naples, Turin etc) but not the empire of Rome. Just as Iraq cannot draw heritage from its Babylonian past. 
 

To me, the heir to the Roman Empire, if any,  was the Ottoman Empire. Of course you had Moscow as the “third Rome”, The Habsburgs, Napoleonic empire and that of Charles V all seeking “Imperial” legitimacy as heir to Rome. 
 

Any of those above is far closer to Rome than the Italians or other post-476 AD Germanic kingdoms. I will definitely get the Italians angry with my post. 

It is a pleasure to deal with an erudite debater.  Yes, my Italian teacher in high school had a hissy fit when I called Napoleon a Frenchman.  We can remove Italy and add the Germans, the French - from Louis the XI through Napoleon I.  The reason that I did not mention the Ottomans is that I think Erdogan and company would love to put on the hat of Mehmed II.  

 

The Hapsburgs were more in the mold of acquisition via marriage rather than war.  

[no_free_lunch]

18 hours ago, Dinar said:

You are being melodramatic and choose to ignore history, Russia does not have the troops to subjugate Ukraine, particularly in light of probable guerrilla movement.

There is no way in hell that any Russian leader will give up Crimea (look up the history of the place - it was never part of Crimea until it was gifted by Khruschev, himself a Ukrainian, in 1954), and if that prevents an armistice, then I am very sorry for Ukrainians, since the war will continue and Western support will dry up.  

 

He is not being melodramatic.  The country is at war and there is clearly an invasion under way.  Have you looked at a map lately of all the Russian forces in there?  Clearly it's an attempt to subjugate.  Poorly though out and executed, as is the norm for Russia, but clearly that attempt was made and is ongoing.

 

Guerilla movements can be put down by a determined opponent who is willing to use torture and murder.  It's been done before, by Russia in fact to Ukraine just 60 or so years ago.  They can do it again if they are willing to kill everyone they suspect. In fact that's exactly what they are doing in the areas they control, even as we speak.