Russia-Ukrainian War

[Pauly]

38 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Please elaborate a bit, @ValueArb, as I did not understand this post of yours in the first place.

I believe he's equating RFK Jr's noted anti-vaccine stance with why he also doesn't like NATO. As NATO acts as a 'vaccine' to the 'disease' of Russian expansion. Correct me if I've misunderstood, of course.

 

I also wonder if RFK's parasitic brain worm has been influencing his thoughts (literally) on vaccines. Strange fellow.

[Blugolds]

35 minutes ago, Pauly said:

I believe he's equating RFK Jr's noted anti-vaccine stance with why he also doesn't like NATO. As NATO acts as a 'vaccine' to the 'disease' of Russian expansion. Correct me if I've misunderstood, of course.

 

I also wonder if RFK's parasitic brain worm has been influencing his thoughts (literally) on vaccines. Strange fellow.

 

That is also the way I understood it. 

 

RFK Jr is a tough guy to read, some of the things he talks about and complains about are spot on, and you dont hear the other two candidates say a peep about those problems/issues, so in that regard I think he’s great..but then sometimes some of the things he comes out of left field with, its like WTF are you talking about man, you sound like the crazy uncle who spends too much time in the conspiracy corners of the internet. 

 

I think in many other election years he would get an automatic pass from most voters, but since this year we have, yet again, two horrible and embarrassing choices, all of a sudden RFK looks more normal/rational than he probably would otherwise. No way RFK wins, but I would like to see numbers higher than Ross Perot at least in hopes that maybe someday we can get away from the two party system, especially since over time that division has become so drastic, there used to be left leaning conservatives and more right leaning liberals, it was more of a grey line…but that line is pretty well established now and it doesn’t seem to really represent what the majority are looking for. 

[Eldad]

1 hour ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

That is also the way I understood it. 

 

RFK Jr is a tough guy to read, some of the things he talks about and complains about are spot on, and you dont hear the other two candidates say a peep about those problems/issues, so in that regard I think he’s great..but then sometimes some of the things he comes out of left field with, its like WTF are you talking about man, you sound like the crazy uncle who spends too much time in the conspiracy corners of the internet. 

 

I think in many other election years he would get an automatic pass from most voters, but since this year we have, yet again, two horrible and embarrassing choices, all of a sudden RFK looks more normal/rational than he probably would otherwise. No way RFK wins, but I would like to see numbers higher than Ross Perot at least in hopes that maybe someday we can get away from the two party system, especially since over time that division has become so drastic, there used to be left leaning conservatives and more right leaning liberals, it was more of a grey line…but that line is pretty well established now and it doesn’t seem to really represent what the majority are looking for. 

Agree we pretty much have to have a viable 3rd party to get out of this mess. 
 

Been reading Alexis de Tocqueville’s The Old Regime and the Revolution and the similarities to present America are a little scary. 
 

You have the Democrats telling the poor that the country is screwing them and was set up from the beginning to screw them, but at the same time is doing very little about it and is being run for the benefit of the left leaning rich. You have the GOP pointing out the hypocrisy of the Democrats on this point but at the same time too married to the business owners to actually help. Then you have a country that has never been better off financially for say the top 20% but the country is more frustrated and dissatisfied than ever. 
 

All of this is exactly how he describes France from say 1770 to 1789. Both sides are fomenting the anger of the poor but give them no choices. 

Edited June 17 by Eldad

[ValueArb]

23 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Please elaborate a bit, @ValueArb, as I did not understand this post of yours in the first place.

 

RFK Junior is most famous in the US for being an anti-vaxxer, he believes they have egregious side effects that science is unable to discern. I was just using poetic license to compare his position on the Ukraine & Russia to his anti-vaccination stand.

 

Like my college professor, you found my creative writing unclear, and like her, gave me a failing grade.

[John Hjorth]

6 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

RFK Junior is most famous in the US for being an anti-vaxxer, he believes they have egregious side effects that science is unable to discern. I was just using poetic license to compare his position on the Ukraine & Russia to his anti-vaccination stand.

 

Like my college professor, you found my creative writing unclear, and like her, gave me a failing grade.

 

Thank you very much, @ValueArb ,

 

This reply of yours is to me just soo awesome, thank you!

[Xerxes]

Fascinating how much interia a given military-industrial complex has. Be it Russian or Americans. 
 

It takes a major conflict to reset that inertia and introduces new ways. And then a new set of “best practices”, new doctrines establishes itself and runs for decades with a new interest groups entrenching themselves.  
 

 

 

 

Edited June 21 by Xerxes

[ValueArb]

Claims of uprisings in southern Russia today.

 

 

[lnofeisone]

19 hours ago, ValueArb said:

Claims of uprisings in southern Russia today.

 

 

I wouldn't call it an uprising. More like a terrorist attack. I'm following this through Russian telegram channels. Here is what the YouTube guy is missing other than being unable to pronounce Makhachkala (maha - ch - kala with emphasis on last a in kala). 

 

1) A handful of armed individuals (I've seen at least 4 on videos and heard a claim of up to 8 ) attacked a church where they beheaded a priest and a synagogue where they shot police guards.

2) Attacks happened in two cities simultaneously. 

3) The high police loss is because the terrorists were heavily armed and attacked mostly unsuspecting police officers and their outposts. Most losses are amongst the police and posted obituaries show it's mostly locals. 

4) I've only seen reports of 2 lightly injured ros  guard (RosGvardia) personnel

[ValueArb]

2 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

I wouldn't call it an uprising. More like a terrorist attack. I'm following this through Russian telegram channels. Here is what the YouTube guy is missing other than being unable to pronounce Makhachkala (maha - ch - kala with emphasis on last a in kala). 

 

1) A handful of armed individuals (I've seen at least 4 on videos and heard a claim of up to 8 ) attacked a church where they beheaded a priest and a synagogue where they shot police guards.

2) Attacks happened in two cities simultaneously. 

3) The high police loss is because the terrorists were heavily armed and attacked mostly unsuspecting police officers and their outposts. Most losses are amongst the police and posted obituaries show it's mostly locals. 

4) I've only seen reports of 2 lightly injured ros  guard (RosGvardia) personnel

 

Yea, that's why I said it was a claim. I see reports like these every so often, but so far none has rolled up into anything significant since Wagner's revolt so I've ignored them. This seems more like it was over religion, not politics.

[ValueArb]

Over time wars are a series of tactical adjustments and counter-adjustments. Russia now launching cruise missiles from sea of azov to make it harder for Ukrainian drones to target them.

 

https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-situation-report-russia-now-launching-kalibr-cruise-missiles-from-the-sea-of-azov

[lnofeisone]

14 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Yea, that's why I said it was a claim. I see reports like these every so often, but so far none has rolled up into anything significant since Wagner's revolt so I've ignored them. This seems more like it was over religion, not politics.

Totally get it. News are all over the place on this one so I am sharing what I am seeing on telegram. 

[Xerxes]

On 5/30/2024 at 6:39 PM, ValueArb said:

Unclear to me. Latest order included 48 “launch stations”, 644 missiles, and 12 latest radar systems. First (2018) order included 2 “batteries”. So maybe it’s 14 batteries total?

 

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/06/29/us-state-dept-clears-15b-sale-of-missile-defense-system-for-poland/

saw this in the AW. 
left column where I am pointing. 
 

8 batteries in total. 
it is fortress Poland indeed. 

 

 

[Luke]

 

Highly interesting no matter what your opinion on this war is. Also questions about North Korea, all with great subtitles.

 

Note: I can not guarantee correctness of subtitles

[Pelagic]

A very in depth article by The WSJ on Ukraine's sea drone operations. Adding a mine laying capability to their USV's adds an interesting wrinkle should Ukraine decide to execute something like the Union's Anaconda plan during the Civil War by blockading the Kerch Straight and Black Sea ports. 

 

https://archive.ph/uGP59

[Luke]

 

Interesting thread, translation should be available

I

[backtothebeach]

Entertaining read:

 

The untold story of the most chaotic Nato summit ever

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8985b970-0015-479f-9585-7a9b234715a4

 

https://archive.is/HdjKG

[ValueArb]

On 7/6/2024 at 7:00 AM, backtothebeach said:

Entertaining read:

 

The untold story of the most chaotic Nato summit ever

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8985b970-0015-479f-9585-7a9b234715a4

 

https://archive.is/HdjKG

one of the few things I applaud Trump for.

[cubsfan]

On 7/6/2024 at 9:00 AM, backtothebeach said:

Entertaining read:

 

The untold story of the most chaotic Nato summit ever

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8985b970-0015-479f-9585-7a9b234715a4

 

https://archive.is/HdjKG

 

Fascinating article, thanks for posting.

 

In the years since the 2018 summit, aggregated defence spending by Nato members, excluding the US, has risen by 55 per cent, to around $430bn. At the time of the summit, just three nations besides the US met the 2 per cent of GDP benchmark. This year, 22 will.

[RichardGibbons]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

In the years since the 2018 summit, aggregated defence spending by Nato members, excluding the US, has risen by 55 per cent, to around $430bn. At the time of the summit, just three nations besides the US met the 2 per cent of GDP benchmark. This year, 22 will.

 

Well, there was an unprovoked attack on a European nation by a country historically known for its expansionary tendencies. Not really surprising that European defence spending increased....

[cubsfan]

Some people just can't handle that it took the courage of Trump to put NATO on the right track again. 

Love him or hate him - he changed NATO in very positive ways for Europe. Unfortunately, he had to make a number of leaders look like the wallflowers they were.

[Gregmal]

I remember when they told us Trump was unfit for office and then proceeded to lie to us for 3+ years about the mental state of his vegetable replacement. Imagine Biden at a NATO meeting? 

[changegonnacome]

11 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Some people just can't handle that it took the courage of Trump to put NATO on the right track again. 

Love him or hate him - he changed NATO in very positive ways for Europe. Unfortunately, he had to make a number of leaders look like the wallflowers they were.

 

Courage....I'm sorry......Trump is stone cold dummy on this issue.....and he displayed effectively first level kindergartener thinking as applied to NATO and the global security architecture from the USA's vantage point.........see NATO is not about making Europe strong and safe...it's about keeping Europe and its collection of nations weak and dependent on the US security umbrella....such that France, Germany, UK when push comes to shove are the USA's lapdogs...NATO is ALSO of course about containing the Soviet and now Russian threat.

 

It is not a good day in the office.......for the USA over the very very long pull..........to have a country as powerful as Germany or France with their imperialistic history and pedigree ramping up its military spending towards 2% of GDP.........the problem with building defensive military capabilities....is that they are indistinguishable from offensive military capabilities.....I know it's unimaginable to folks today in 2024 that somehow France or Germany could be security challenge to the US globally on issues....but the arc of time is long.....and folks should know by now that more things can happen that you can even imagine..........

 

So with this 'new' framework.....I'll ask ......as a US patriot @cubsfan concerned with keeping the USA as powerful as possible for as long as humanly possible (decades, millenia).....is it a good outcome to have Germany/France/UK ramping up their military spend to 2% of GDP....how would the USA or France feel if say Germany for example, under the guise of defense, ramped that spend up to say 6%?......and created an indigenous German military industrial complex that was a peer competitor to Raytheon & General Dynamics.

 

Not its not good outcome for the USA.......the BEST outcome for the USA, if you really think about it, is to maximize its RELATIVE military capability vis a vie every other nation on the planet including its 'allies'.

 

Trump does not get how ultimately magical it is for USA now and over the long pull........to have Germany, France and the UK under-spend  on their military.......it takes every dollar of US spend on its military and maximize its power and influence globally....on everything from trade, to economic coalitions against China, to strong arming folks to go with USA on various espcades in Iraq and Afghanistan  etc. etc.

 

The problem with Trump in regards to NATO as I hope I've explained......is also what I see with his retarded tariff proposals....and his talk of weakening the USD......everywhere with him......I see real first level policy thinking........ .....he consistently, it seems, fails to get the big big big strategic picture....Joe Biden doesn't seem to be able to do even do first level thinking anymore but thats an aside.....when you go down the list...think about how ultimately wonderful it is that the dollar is strong and the reserve currency, how fucking amazing it is that we in the USA get to send the rest of the world pieces of paper and they send us real stuff we can use....why the hell would you put tariffs on a 'racket like that'!?!?......and finally, to bring it back to topic, how amazing it is that former global imperial superpowers like Germany, France and the UK, under the umbrella of NATO, have let their once great military capabilities atrophy...such that the USA is the goddamn 800ilb gorilla in every room its in and its not even close anymore. That's just a slam dunk outcome for any nation so why the hell would you mess with it. 
 

 

Edited July 8 by changegonnacome

[Ulti]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

also what I see with his retarded tariff

Worse was his doing away with the TPP

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/issues/economy/trade

[cubsfan]

11 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Courage....I'm sorry......Trump is stone cold dummy on this issue.....and he displayed effectively first level kindergartener thinking as applied to NATO and the global security architecture from the USA's vantage point.........see NATO is not about making Europe strong and safe...it's about keeping Europe and its collection of nations weak and dependent on the US security umbrella....such that France, Germany, UK when push comes to shove are the USA's lapdogs...NATO is ALSO of course about containing the Soviet and now Russian threat.

 

It is not a good day in the office.......for the USA over the very very long pull..........to have a country as powerful as Germany or France with their imperialistic history and pedigree ramping up its military spending towards 2% of GDP.........the problem with building defensive military capabilities....is that they are indistinguishable from offensive military capabilities.....I know it's unimaginable to folks today in 2024 that somehow France or Germany could be security challenge to the US globally on issues....but the arc of time is long.....and folks should know by now that more things can happen that you can even imagine..........

 

So with this 'new' framework.....I'll ask ......as a US patriot @cubsfan concerned with keeping the USA as powerful as possible for as long as humanly possible (decades, millenia).....is it a good outcome to have Germany/France/UK ramping up their military spend to 2% of GDP....how would the USA or France feel if say Germany for example, under the guise of defense, ramped that spend up to say 6%?......and created an indigenous German military industrial complex that was a peer competitor to Raytheon & General Dynamics.

 

Not its not good outcome for the USA.......the BEST outcome for the USA, if you really think about it, is to maximize its RELATIVE military capability vis a vie every other nation on the planet including its 'allies'.

 

Trump does not get how ultimately magical it is for USA now and over the long pull........to have Germany, France and the UK under-spend  on their military.......it takes every dollar of US spend on its military and maximize its power and influence globally....on everything from trade, to economic coalitions against China, to strong arming folks to go with USA on various espcades in Iraq and Afghanistan  etc. etc.

 

The problem with Trump in regards to NATO as I hope I've explained......is also what I see with his retarded tariff proposals....and his talk of weakening the USD......everywhere with him......I see real first level policy thinking........ .....he consistently, it seems, fails to get the big big big strategic picture....Joe Biden doesn't seem to be able to do even do first level thinking anymore but thats an aside.....when you go down the list...think about how ultimately wonderful it is that the dollar is strong and the reserve currency, how fucking amazing it is that we in the USA get to send the rest of the world pieces of paper and they send us real stuff we can use....why the hell would you put tariffs on a 'racket like that'!?!?......and finally, to bring it back to topic, how amazing it is that former global imperial superpowers like Germany, France and the UK, under the umbrella of NATO, have let their once great military capabilities atrophy...such that the USA is the goddamn 800ilb gorilla in every room its in and its not even close anymore. That's just a slam dunk outcome for any nation so why the hell would you mess with it. 
 

 

 

That's quite the ultra-cynical view of NATO.

 

My first thought is that the Western European/US alliance has allowed both entities to survive both WWI & WWII - and may help all to survive WW3. Obviously, you see it another way.

 

This alliance is a powerful offset against the Russians - and may be of some value in the case of an aggressive China. I doubt the Europeans want to go it "alone" against a nuclear Russia, although they would probably win anyway - why take the chance and temp the Russians? But adding the USA to the mix certainly seals the chances of a Russian defeat and Western European victory.

 

But you seem to see a much more devious deep-seated motive that the USA has..

 

I think eventually, there will be a showdown with China - hopefully many, many years into the future - and certainly the USA will want Western Europe as our "partner" or ally.  Who knows?

 

Unless you want every country in the world "nuking up" against aggressive neighbors  - I'd suggest serious alliances like NATO serve a very useful purpose for the continuation of peace, trade and economic prosperity.

 

Obviously, you have a much more cynical viewpoint. 

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

That's quite the ultra-cynical view of NATO.

 

I'd posit your view is naive. There's no deep state thinking required - only the simple application of the golden rule of international relations - nations states dont have friends and allies, they have interests.....when interest align....you look like fast friends........it is in the United States interest to be the most powerful nation in the world....I applaud us for it....and they achieved it with perfect execution for decades now.

 

The architecture put in place post WWII was about putting in place a world order where the US was the great power (militarily and economically) in the system.....you wanted global prosperity, trade and economic recovery in Europe (Marshall plan) because this would ultimately be to the benefit and security of the United States....and we got to write the rules...reserve currency, NYC as financial centre,UN in NYC, IMF in D.C....the American century ....but dont confuse economic diplomacy with altruistic kindness....the US never wanted again to be concerned about the military rise of an imperial Germany or France or UK coming out of Europe capabale of projecting power on the world stage......NATO neutered this possibility while also containing the great power (USSR) with the capability to challenge you.

 

Dont get me wrong Europe wanted this too....generations were ravaged by war.....Europe was done with 'wars' after generations were annihilated....it welcomed with open arms the neutering of itself.....

 

Providing a security umbrella in Europe and in Asia to Japan....South Korea......though is both 'kind' but also brutally strategic at the same time......its neutres their ability to project power....again you want to be the king of the jungle in Europe and Asia even......the smart way to run your business in the international system is to put out fires before they can even start........NATO and security umbrellas for Japan/S.Korea......took possible chess pieces off the board....allowing the US to focus on true emerging threats..the USSR first......now China.....and who knows perhaps India one day....depending on its ambitions.

 

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

This alliance is a powerful offset against the Russians

 

It was a powerful offset for the United States against the peer competitor that was the USSR post-WWII up until its collapse....Russia, today, is militarily a joke in terms of its ability to project true occupation power into Western Europe (obviosly it could blow it up a thousand times over).....don't believe the threat inflation about Putin marching into Ukraine and then on to Poland and then Berlin....all that Biden cold war nonsense...believe what you can see with your own eyes.......Russia's great military is literally stuck in the mud in Western Ukraine. 

 

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

I doubt the Europeans want to go it "alone" against a nuclear Russia, although they would probably win anyway - why take the chance and temp the Russians?

 

The true value of NATO to the Europeans.......is that by outsourcing their security to the United States.....it fulfills a desire that all European who went through WWI and WWII wanted......which is not to repeat the chaos and bloodshed and misery again that comes from security competition on the continent thats been going on for hundred of years but reached a crescendo when industrialized killing machines became available a hundred years ago.

 

The source of that bloodshed and misery?.....effectively the unchecked security competition between the chief modern protagonists in Western Europe...... France and Germany.....that sent millions to the slaughter in the early 20th century.

 

Europe, was like an addict, addicted to killing and war........and NATO, in a real sense, is like an AA meeting for it........NATO allows Germany, France to effectively disavow the need for true military scale....it relegates the inevitable security competition that has bedeviled the continent ......one should see the EU and NATO combined.....as like a junkie doing everything they possibly can not to 'use' again.....the EU is an economic peace project......and NATO is an outsourcing of the very concept of a nation capable of projecting power building a military capability to do so......see all military first get built in the understandable AND justibable spirit of defense....they later get used for expansionary purposes.

 

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

I'd suggest serious alliances like NATO serve a very useful purpose for the continuation of peace, trade and economic prosperity.

 

Couldn't agree more......its all about maximizing ones relative position in the global system from a security and economic point of view.....security architecture via alliance and containment design is ultimately the MOST pure expression of what one might call 'risk management'....cause it concerns the safety and prosperity of one's own people......