Russia-Ukrainian War

[John Hjorth]

13 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

is anyone worried about a nuclear war, followed by deflation, a rush to certain continents vs others, panic, and some companies doing well that sell radiation monitors, or even Amazon delivering essential goods via robots?

 

I personally have a hard time thinking about such a screnario, it is just so deeply unpleasant to think about. Where would you try to go, if this sceninario eventually would end to get real?

[maplevalue]

13 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

is anyone worried about a nuclear war, followed by deflation, a rush to certain continents vs others, panic, and some companies doing well that sell radiation monitors, or even Amazon delivering essential goods via robots?

 

Nuclear war is inflationary. Governments will hit the print button immediately, making COVID handouts look small in comparison.

[scorpioncapital]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

I personally have a hard time thinking about such a screnario, it is just so deeply unpleasant to think about. Where would you try to go, if this sceninario eventually would end to get real?

 

I was thinking southern hemisphere, those countries said they're not aligned. I guess it would have to be a real chain reaction for neutral countries to be hit. But then I wonder if, like Covid, flights will be cancelled and you had to be out well before. The most eerie show I saw about how this could play out from 1984 - was https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0090163/
Everyone talks about world destroying nuclear war but it is possible to have a limited , tactical type nuclear engagement that would still be as severe as covid but not world destroying. The tactical nukes of today are actually as or more powerful than the Hiroshima nuke. 

[changegonnacome]

Ukraine's gorrilla warfare in Moscow is a total no brainer.....blowing up empty office building at 4am or whatever where no civilians get killed is a way to bring the war to Russia's doorstep and public mindset in a way that might drive Putin to the negotiating table

 

As I've stated - I just dont see significant military 'wins' occurring on the Eastern front given the artillery and man power dynamics.......the good news coming out of the counter-offensive has been very very very limited.....the below has way more potential at driving some kind of Russian capitulation at the negotiating table that might be acceptable to Ukraine. They should terrorize Moscow with loud but harmless drones......and occasionally do something like the below.

 

 

[Xerxes]

For me the news was not so much the attack on Moscow but the fact that they took responsibility. 
 

Anyone remembers the first time Ukraine attacked Russia proper. I remember. It was a somber affair. They attacked the cross border town of Belgorod with helicopters. It was as if they were testing the bear. And they neither confirmed nor denied their involvement. 
 

We are now in the ‘normalization’ phase of the bear getting poked.  
 

The other news is Graham stating that a tactical nuclear strike is considered an attack on NATO, even though not on NATO soil, because of secondary impact. Ok fine, it is all about narrative and building red lines. 
 

Except that yet again it is one sided Western view. Washington has no problem choking other economies with severe sanctions when it pleases them, without shooting a bullet (not considering secondary impact on local populations), while they cry like fu@$ing babies about secondary impact, when it suits them.
 

Dear Washington. Grow some spine please. 

Edited August 1, 2023 by Xerxes

[changegonnacome]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-lack-of-weaponry-and-training-risks-stalemate-in-fight-with-russia-f51ecf9

[John Hjorth]

16 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

... They should terrorize Moscow with loud but harmless drones......and occasionally do something like the below.

 

 

 

Are you really serious here about that?, @changegonnacome?

 

If 'yes', you'll need to elaborate the [war] logic behind this to [at least] me.

[ValueArb]

18 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Ukraine's gorrilla warfare in Moscow is a total no brainer.....blowing up empty office building at 4am or whatever where no civilians get killed is a way to bring the war to Russia's doorstep and public mindset in a way that might drive Putin to the negotiating table

 

As I've stated - I just dont see significant military 'wins' occurring on the Eastern front given the artillery and man power dynamics.......the good news coming out of the counter-offensive has been very very very limited.....the below has way more potential at driving some kind of Russian capitulation at the negotiating table that might be acceptable to Ukraine. They should terrorize Moscow with loud but harmless drones......and occasionally do something like the below.

 

 

 

These aren't civilian office buildings, there are military, FSB and their contractors in that building. They are legit military targets.

 

In the history of war, attempts to lower morale or provoke a civilian uprising through direct bombardment of the enemy population almost always fail, this was true even in WW2 during massive fire bombings in Europe and Japan (I'm listening to podcast of Siege of Paris by the Prussians in 1872, once they started direct artillery bombardment it just pissed the population off). This isn't going to do diddly to bring Putin to the negotiating table because it's not going to lead to any civilian unrest esp. given how tightly controlled they are.

 

The most likely reason for these attacks, besides the military benefit of hitting bureaucrats directing war materials and decisions, is that Putin is going to be forced to bring more Anti-Air defenses back from Ukraine to Moscow and other Russian cities. This is being done to help clear the way for the offensive in Ukraine, not to make political statements. Ukraine is publicizing their involvement to hopefully provoke Putin to panic and over react.

[ValueArb]

On 7/30/2023 at 1:54 PM, scorpioncapital said:

 

I was thinking southern hemisphere, those countries said they're not aligned. I guess it would have to be a real chain reaction for neutral countries to be hit. But then I wonder if, like Covid, flights will be cancelled and you had to be out well before. The most eerie show I saw about how this could play out from 1984 - was https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0090163/
Everyone talks about world destroying nuclear war but it is possible to have a limited , tactical type nuclear engagement that would still be as severe as covid but not world destroying. The tactical nukes of today are actually as or more powerful than the Hiroshima nuke. 

 

Tactical nukes aren't likely to be very effective in Ukraine. Hitting Kyiv would be genocide and kill hundreds of thousands. But hitting the front lines or even military bases will only kill a few thousand at most given how dispersed they are and prepared already for bomb blasts by being in trenches or hardened buildings. I will be surprised if Putin orders their use, given the immense blowback Russia will receive and cause the likely introduction of the most advanced NATO weapons, if not NATO personnel to operate them.

[ValueArb]

4 hours ago, Xerxes said:

For me the news was not so much the attack on Moscow but the fact that they took responsibility. 
 

Anyone remembers the first time Ukraine attacked Russia proper. I remember. It was a somber affair. They attacked the cross border town of Belgorod with helicopters. It was as if they were testing the bear. And they neither confirmed nor denied their involvement. 
 

We are now in the ‘normalization’ phase of the bear getting poked.  
 

The other news is Graham stating that a tactical nuclear strike is considered an attack on NATO, even though not on NATO soil, because of secondary impact. Ok fine, it is all about narrative and building red lines. 
 

Except that yet again it is one sided Western view. Washington has no problem choking other economies with severe sanctions when it pleases them, without shooting a bullet (not considering secondary impact on local populations), while they cry like fu@$ing babies about secondary impact, when it suits them.
 

Dear Washington. Grow some spine please. 

 

What should Graham have said?

 

What should Washington (and NATO) do if Russia uses tactical nukes against Ukraine?

[changegonnacome]

46 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

If 'yes', you'll need to elaborate the [war] logic behind this to [at least] me.

 

Yep I'm serious - when your foe is larger than you and has more artilery than you & has more men than you.

 

You need to get unconventional in how you do things.

 

So you've got to seriously consider gorilla tactics......put simply if a military victory cant be achieved.....and I think in the case of Ukraine v Russia its kind of clear Ukraine hasn't the means by which to 'win' traditionally.......you've got to attempt to raise the costs for the Russian people......taking a gorilla war (terrorist bombing campaign) to the streets of Moscow changes the asymmetry of the engagement.....not pretty, not nice........not advocating killing civilians......but 'military' targets in the heart of Russia need to be put on the table to increase the 'fear factor' for the Russian population such that it at least becomes politically expensive for the Putin regime.

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

What should Graham have said?

 

What should Washington (and NATO) do if Russia uses tactical nukes against Ukraine?

I didn’t say he shouldn’t say it. I just called them lot a f@&:ing crybaby hypocrites. Nuff’ said. 
 

The only scenario that I would be concerned about nukes is in a post-Putin world, where a new leader emerges in the Kremlin to win the war but without the Putin legacy baggage holding him back. 
 

The fact that Putin has made a miscalculation with this Feb 2022 invasion is I think actually holding him back, oddly enough. Ukraine is fighting a total war, Russia is not as of yet.

 

Perhaps we won’t see much material change either way till U.S. elections.  

[Xerxes]

20 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yep I'm serious - when your foe is larger than you and has more artilery than you & has more men than you.

 

You need to get unconventional in how you do things.

 

So you've got to seriously consider gorilla tactics......put simply if a military victory cant be achieved.....and I think in the case of Ukraine v Russia its kind of clear Ukraine hasn't the means by which to 'win' traditionally.......you've got to attempt to raise the costs for the Russian people......taking a gorilla war (terrorist bombing campaign) to the streets of Moscow changes the asymmetry of the engagement.....not pretty, not nice........not advocating killing civilians......but 'military' targets in the heart of Russia need to be put on the table to increase the 'fear factor' for the Russian population such that it at least becomes politically expensive for the Putin regime.

I don’t remember exactly but I think it was in year 4 or 5 of Iran-Iraq war, when they started their War of Cities. Scuds flying to Tehran and from Iran to Baghdad. 
 

It is two years early in this conflict. 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

These aren't civilian office buildings, there are military, FSB and their contractors in that building. They are legit military targets.

 

In the history of war, attempts to lower morale or provoke a civilian uprising through direct bombardment of the enemy population almost always fail, this was true even in WW2 during massive fire bombings in Europe and Japan (I'm listening to podcast of Siege of Paris by the Prussians in 1872, once they started direct artillery bombardment it just pissed the population off). This isn't going to do diddly to bring Putin to the negotiating table because it's not going to lead to any civilian unrest esp. given how tightly controlled they are.

 

The most likely reason for these attacks, besides the military benefit of hitting bureaucrats directing war materials and decisions, is that Putin is going to be forced to bring more Anti-Air defenses back from Ukraine to Moscow and other Russian cities. This is being done to help clear the way for the offensive in Ukraine, not to make political statements. Ukraine is publicizing their involvement to hopefully provoke Putin to panic and over react.

The Christmas bombings of Vietnam. Americans thinks it worked beautifully in bringing back Hanoi to the negotiating table and ending the war.  
 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/12/17/asia/operation-linebacker-ii-50th-anniversary-intl-hnk-ml-dst/index.html
 

On the other hand, the Allied bombing of Berlin ties up an estimated 1.5 million German troops manning 88mm anti air artillery. Both the troops and the 88s would have probably better served fighting in the east. And the Luftwaffe was very much decimated defending the German proper. IIRC there were only 2 German planes attacking Normandy on D-Day. 
 

It works in different ways. 
 

I think, in the current context with Moscow, it is more to burst the bubble of the city dwellers. And pulling resources to defend it 

Edited August 1, 2023 by Xerxes

[Gamecock-YT]

It's like the Doolittle Raid of Tokyo in WW2. Bringing the war home.

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said:

It's like the Doolittle Raid of Tokyo in WW2. Bringing the war home.

Or the British air Raid on Berlin in late 1941 causing a huge diversion of resources for the Nazis to protect the capital and other German cities. These drone bombings have little direct impact but they hopefully cause secondary impacts as far as Russia needing to move air defense units from frontlines to protect the capital.

 

FWIW, I think next year, Ukraine will probably have their own cruise missiles developed to hit Russian targets with a few hundred pound warheads deep inside Russia. After all, I think even 30 year old western tech will do the job nicely and they sure will get access to that. Most obvious target will be infrastructure close to the frontline and all the bridges in Andrew hundred Km within Ukraine borders will be accessible and become target. Crimean bridges will be gone quickly, Railroad stations, refineries, energy, barracks will become a constant target.

 

On the Russian manpower issue, the recent increase in conscription age from 27 to 30 years shows that there likely already a shortage and they are getting ready for the next batch of Mobiks to get into the meatgrinder.

 

Wagner is gone or absorbed and I think they cleared the prisons of volunteers by now anyways.

Edited August 2, 2023 by Spekulatius

[lnofeisone]

17 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

These aren't civilian office buildings, there are military, FSB and their contractors in that building. They are legit military targets.

Is there a source for this? Everything I'm reading says that drones were jammed and this was an inadvertent target. One of the buildings that was hit houses ministries but they (Rosstandart) are similar to US NIST. Nothing around FSB or their contractors. 

[lnofeisone]

16 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yep I'm serious - when your foe is larger than you and has more artilery than you & has more men than you.

 

You need to get unconventional in how you do things.

 

So you've got to seriously consider gorilla tactics......put simply if a military victory cant be achieved.....and I think in the case of Ukraine v Russia its kind of clear Ukraine hasn't the means by which to 'win' traditionally.......you've got to attempt to raise the costs for the Russian people......taking a gorilla war (terrorist bombing campaign) to the streets of Moscow changes the asymmetry of the engagement.....not pretty, not nice........not advocating killing civilians......but 'military' targets in the heart of Russia need to be put on the table to increase the 'fear factor' for the Russian population such that it at least becomes politically expensive for the Putin regime.

I think these drone attacks are an indication of desperation on the Ukrainian side. The narrative over the last few weeks has gone from "Russian soldiers are demoralized" and "spring offensive" to "summer offensive" to "we should keep our expectations grounded" and "Russian moral (or shovels if you will) isn't that low." On some levels I do believe Ukraine drank its own kool-aid thinking that Russia will just collapse. 

 

Russia, it seems, has used its time wisely hardening defensive lines while all the attention was on Bachmut. I've been reading about mine fields, mined trenches, use of helicopters, etc. Just all around a balanced strategy to hold Ukraine at bay which seems to be working. It also seems that russia only opportunistically advances. And why wouldn't they? Sure, ukraine can annoy Russia with missile and drone strikes and vice versa but absent something big the battle lines appear to have stabilized. 

[ValueArb]

4 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

Is there a source for this? Everything I'm reading says that drones were jammed and this was an inadvertent target. One of the buildings that was hit houses ministries but they (Rosstandart) are similar to US NIST. Nothing around FSB or their contractors. 

Yet somehow Russia’s “jamming” caused multiple drones to hit the same building twice in two nights. Even Russias native propagandists have pointed this out.

[Vish_ram]

It is crazy that the cold war has continued for 78 years now. This is a multi-generational deep seated mistrust. Will this ever get resolved?

 

The Russians should be the most cursed people on Earth. They suffered during Lenin (during birth of Communism), Stalin (worst human loss during WW2) and now Putin. 

[Eng12345]

5 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

I think these drone attacks are an indication of desperation on the Ukrainian side. The narrative over the last few weeks has gone from "Russian soldiers are demoralized" and "spring offensive" to "summer offensive" to "we should keep our expectations grounded" and "Russian moral (or shovels if you will) isn't that low." On some levels I do believe Ukraine drank its own kool-aid thinking that Russia will just collapse. 

 

Russia, it seems, has used its time wisely hardening defensive lines while all the attention was on Bachmut. I've been reading about mine fields, mined trenches, use of helicopters, etc. Just all around a balanced strategy to hold Ukraine at bay which seems to be working. It also seems that russia only opportunistically advances. And why wouldn't they? Sure, ukraine can annoy Russia with missile and drone strikes and vice versa but absent something big the battle lines appear to have stabilized. 

Agreed - the vaunted Ukranian counteroffensive is stalling. It's hard to see the US continuing to provide so much support to a sputtering counteroffensive going into an election year next year. Thats a no-win easy slam dunk for desantis or trump on the domestic front. 

 

It's ultimately why I was not so comfortable holding such a large part of my portfolio in oil. Elections are coming up and there is going to be a lot of pressure on the administration to stabilize this/wind it down. 

 

 

Or blow it out of the water and light Eastern Europe up in the flames of war. 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Eng12345

[ValueArb]

20 minutes ago, Vish_ram said:

It is crazy that the cold war has continued for 78 years now. This is a multi-generational deep seated mistrust. Will this ever get resolved?

 

The Russians should be the most cursed people on Earth. They suffered during Lenin (during birth of Communism), Stalin (worst human loss during WW2) and now Putin. 

 

They have been doomed to have a love of authoritarian rulers with egomaniacal streaks. The Tsars were no better than Stalin or Putin.

 

They also have a huge chip on their shoulder, they constantly want to proclaim themselves as a great country deserving the worlds respect when in reality they are a backwards third world nation with a per capita GDP well below Khazakstan. They've lost nearly every significant war they've fought in the last 150 years, getting crushed in Crimea, by the Japanese, in WW1, and only "winning" in WW2 due to massive aid from and a complementary invasion by the West.

 

They'd have zero world influence today if not for one thing, nuclear weapons.

[cubsfan]

7 minutes ago, Eng12345 said:

Agreed - the vaunted Ukranian counteroffensive is stalling. It's hard to see the US continuing to provide so much support to a sputtering counteroffensive going into an election year next year. Thats a no-win easy slam dunk for desantis or trump on the domestic front. 

 

It's ultimately why I was not so comfortable holding such a large part of my portfolio in oil. Elections are coming up and there is going to be a lot of pressure on the administration to stabilize this/wind it down. 

 

 

Or blow it out of the water and light Eastern Europe up in the flames of war. 

 

Yeah, it's a terrible situation - maybe gonna look more like Verdun. Too early to tell.

But stopping Russia from a complete takeover is no small victory.

 

I think the silver lining is the bolstering of NATO - with Sweden & Finland joining. 

 

I can't imagine the Russians wanted that to happen...and it's certainly hard to see how

Russia can complete it's original objective.

[Eng12345]

8 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Yeah, it's a terrible situation - maybe gonna look more like Verdun. Too early to tell.

But stopping Russia from a complete takeover is no small victory.

 

I think the silver lining is the bolstering of NATO - with Sweden & Finland joining. 

 

I can't imagine the Russians wanted that to happen...and it's certainly hard to see how

Russia can complete it's original objective.

Agreed - the whole offensive is going to continue to be a bloody slog. 

 

Ukraine to start talks with US on security guarantees | Reuters  <<this is what gives me the inkling the whole thing is going to wind down. 

[ValueArb]

48 minutes ago, Eng12345 said:

Agreed - the whole offensive is going to continue to be a bloody slog. 

 

Ukraine to start talks with US on security guarantees | Reuters  <<this is what gives me the inkling the whole thing is going to wind down. 

 

Thats a discussion of expanding security guarantees until Ukraine is a member of NATO. There is zero chance the US is winding down support of Ukraine while the war is ongoing. Trump and Desantis can't score any points by arguing that we should allow Russia to complete their torture, rape and genocide of the Ukraine.