Russia-Ukrainian War

[boilermaker75]

3 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Germany's military budget has to increase, it knows this.

 

And giving to Ukraine's war effort is a very effective way to do this.

Edited March 28, 2023 by boilermaker75

[Pelagic]

16 minutes ago, Dinar said:

I agree with you, with one caveat.  Germany's military budget is $56bn, so if it increased aid to Ukraine to E 15bn per annum, then it is spending not a couple of percent of its military budget but more like 28-30%.

 

Well short of the NATO goal of 2% of GDP but still your point stands, even if it was around 2% of GDP at 85B, 15B would be a meaningful percent. I guess the best explanation is a lot of that 15B would be going to German manufacturers to build modern German equipment for their own military to replace current stock being sent to Ukraine.

[Castanza]

 

Thought this was a pretty good podcast with a few different perspectives from a guy with an interesting background. I'd say approach it knowing that the opinions are anecdotes influenced heavily by real world experiences. But frankly, I'd rather hear opinions from those who have done; over those who sit at desks and form opinions only based on what they read in books. 

 

____________________________

 

Outside of this interview all I will say about this whole situation is that the US is really f%&$ing up by allowing China to potentially broker a peace deal with Russia between Ukraine and other deals with the Saudis. The US Sphere of influence and credibility on a global scale are diminishing. 

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Germany's military budget has to increase, it knows this.

I think the help to Ukraine is coming from a different bucket than the defense budget.

You can also see that it's likely that Ukraine is going to get fighter planes. the Poles sent the Mig-29 first and later they get the good stuff.

A year in, Ukraine is going to be the largest and best equipped army in Europe coming from and army that was using old Russian surplus mostly. Energy exports to Europe in the toilet with little lasting damage to the economy.

Well done Putin.

Edited March 28, 2023 by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

9 hours ago, Dinar said:

 

@cubsfan  Please explain how Russia can take any of its European neighbors even if it wins in Ukraine?  All of them, except for Moldova are members of NATO, so you see Russia able to defeat NATO?

 

 You can speculate what's in Putin's mind and what he might do - but you really have no idea. That's the bottom line. The Europeans have constantly underestimated Putin. For years. Even when he took Crimea 9 years ago - they STILL underestimated him.  Now you have this mess. What will Putin do if he is allowed to take Ukraine??   You don't have a clue - only Putin knows that - NATO or no NATO.

 

Putin only understands weak leaders. So you spend the money, stop him now - because he only understands military strength IF someone is willing to use it. That's the language despots understand.

[Spekulatius]

20 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

 You can speculate what's in Putin's mind and what he might do - but you really have no idea. That's the bottom line. The Europeans have constantly underestimated Putin. For years. Even when he took Crimea 9 years ago - they STILL underestimated him.  Now you have this mess. What will Putin do if he is allowed to take Ukraine??   You don't have a clue - only Putin knows that - NATO or no NATO.

 

Putin only understands weak leaders. So you spend the money, stop him now - because he only understands military strength IF someone is willing to use it. That's the language despots understand.

I agree. When has appeasement ever worked against a despot like Putin? I can’t think of a single time. Now that it’s clear he sprung into a bear trap in an Ukraine, this is the best opportunity to defang him and Russia. Never let a mistake of your opponent go to waste.

Edited March 29, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

On 3/28/2023 at 2:06 PM, Castanza said:

 

Thought this was a pretty good podcast with a few different perspectives from a guy with an interesting background. I'd say approach it knowing that the opinions are anecdotes influenced heavily by real world experiences. But frankly, I'd rather hear opinions from those who have done; over those who sit at desks and form opinions only based on what they read in books. 

 

____________________________

 

Outside of this interview all I will say about this whole situation is that the US is really f%&$ing up by allowing China to potentially broker a peace deal with Russia between Ukraine and other deals with the Saudis. The US Sphere of influence and credibility on a global scale are diminishing. 

 

China could broker something between Iran and Saudi Arabia because it was an honest broker. Not because it is honest per say as a government, rather than it had equal stake on both sides which forces it to be honest. 
 

I can never imagine U.S. government to be honest broker in any shape or form with Iran. 
 

On Russia and Ukraine, I have a hard time to see PRC being that honest broker. Yes they will talk the walk. I truly think the Turks will play a strong and outsize role in whatever comes out of this conflict. They have a stake in a successful conclusion to this miserable conflict. And they are NATO and they are an autocracy at the same time. 
 

Edit:  I should add PRC and Russia have much in common yet much separates then. PRC does not want another 1989 fall of Berlin Wall but also doesn’t want to tear down rule-based post-1945 system we have. Just want to add Chinese characteristics to it. Can’t say the samething about Russia. 

Edited March 29, 2023 by Xerxes

[no_free_lunch]

On 3/28/2023 at 6:44 PM, cubsfan said:

 

 You can speculate what's in Putin's mind and what he might do - but you really have no idea. That's the bottom line. The Europeans have constantly underestimated Putin. For years. Even when he took Crimea 9 years ago - they STILL underestimated him.  Now you have this mess. What will Putin do if he is allowed to take Ukraine??   You don't have a clue - only Putin knows that - NATO or no NATO.

 

Putin only understands weak leaders. So you spend the money, stop him now - because he only understands military strength IF someone is willing to use it. That's the language despots understand.

Not just Ukraine. A similar situation in Chechnya,  Georgia,  Kazakhstan.  Anyone who thinks Russia has a better alternative should go live there.  They won't of course,  it's all talk. They want the safety and power of the west. 

[Spekulatius]

Glimpse into Russian cyber warfare:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/mar/30/vulkan-files-leak-reveals-putins-global-and-domestic-cyberwarfare-tactics

[cubsfan]

Moving in the right direction:

https://www.dailywire.com/news/major-northern-european-country-to-join-nato-as-tensions-with-russia-rise

 

[no_free_lunch]

It is the right direction. People are scared and for legitimate reasons. 

[Viking]

On 4/1/2023 at 10:13 AM, cubsfan said:

Moving in the right direction:

https://www.dailywire.com/news/major-northern-european-country-to-join-nato-as-tensions-with-russia-rise

 

Finland joining NATO is just one of many examples of how badly Putin / Russia mis-calculated - it has been catastrophic for Russia. There is no way to put lipstick on this pig. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland had never seriously considered joining NATO (please correct me if i am wrong). With Finland, Russia had a buffer along its northern border. No longer. Russia is much worse off.

 

NATO is also now much stronger as an organization. Larger, with Finland and likely Sweden. With a renewed sense of purpose. And with military spending at NATO countries spiking in the coming years. Putin has made NATO a much more formidable adversary for Russia.  

Edited April 2, 2023 by Viking

[cubsfan]

@Viking - Agree. Europe has been galvanized against the bear finally. The real test will be the use of power against Russia - so Putin gets the message.

 

China will be watching closely.

[shhughes1116]

On 3/23/2023 at 4:13 PM, shhughes1116 said:

 

For those of you that still follow this war closely, there have been some interesting actions recently, which lead me to believe the Ukrainian counter-offensive is coming soon, maybe late Spring.    

1. A handful of Russian mil-bloggers have been reporting Ukrainian attacks near Polohy.  From what is described, the Ukrainians are conducting reconnaissance in force.    

2. The most recent aid package from the United States contained fuel trucks designed to support heavy tanks and mechanized infantry in the field.

3.  Recent aid packages have included a lot of bridging and engineering equipment.    

4. Over the past few months, it looks like the Ukrainians have been reinforcing Bahkmut with Territorial Defense Forces and existing Brigrades (i.e. 80th, 92nd, 93rd).  Clearly things are tough in Bahkmut, but it doesn't look like they've been sending new units that have been recently trained by the West.  And I don't see any of the new vehicles they've been getting from the West (i.e. AMX-RC10s, Leopard 2s, Marder IFVs, Bradley IFVs). 

5.  Ukraine is forming 28,000 volunteers into Assault Brigades - that's about 10 brigades.   

 

By my estimation, Ukraine has another 5-6 undeployed brigades and support units trained by the West that have not been deployed yet.  Add in the Assault Brigades and you get a force of 15-16 Brigades.  The Challenger II and Leopard II tanks that they get this Spring, along with the Strykers, Bradleys, and Marders, will enable Ukraine to create from these brigades two armored brigades and a handful of mechanized brigades.  This is a pretty formidable force, especially with the Leopard IIs and Challenger IIs in the van. 

 

I continue to think the main thrust happens through Polohy, with subsequent thrusts to Berdyansk and Melitpol.  I think there will be a Dnipro River crossing - maybe a feint -  to keep Russian forces fixed along the river.  If the Russians remain fixed to the river, I'll bet we see a thunder run by the ex-French AMX-RC10s towards the Crimean Isthmus to prevent Russian forces from retreating into Crimea, which might cause a rout amongst the Russian forces that are currently along the Dnipro River.    

 

I think Ukraine gets one chance at a counter-offensive.  If this fails, I think they are pushed by the West to sue for peace.      

 

 

 

 

 

The package of arms announced today by the U.S. for Ukraine includes another 61 heavy fuel tankers.  The last package also included heavy fuel tankers, although I don't think they said how many.  Assuming we are giving the M969A1 - capacity of 5,000 gallons of fuel - 61 tankers is a field refueling capacity of ~300,000 gallons.

 

An armored brigade combat team - essentially the pointy end of a stick for a U.S Army Division - needs about 80,000 gallons of fuel to go 200 miles, and more if engaged in combat.  The 90 Abrams in the ABCT consume just over half the fuel, with the ~150 Bradleys, ~dozen Paladins, and ~50 M113s consuming the rest.  I believe the US just provided the field refueling capacity needed to support the Western tanks (Leopards, Challengers) and IFVs (CV90s, Bradleys, Marders, AMXRC-10s) and Strykers during the counter-offensive.  .  

 

Given the number of heavy fuel tankers and engineering vehicles that have been provided/committed over the last few months, along with the number of Western tanks and IFVs committed/delivered, I think we will see three separate corps-level units in the Ukrainian counter-offensive.    

 

My guess is still Polohy for the main thrust/breakthrough, with one corps heading towards the Mauripol-Vuhledar axis, another heading to Berdyansk, and another to Melitpol.  

 

 

 

[james22]

The Russian Military Is Destroying Itself In Ukraine

 

The British Military Intelligence has assessed that “a significant minority” of Russian casualties in Ukraine have been caused “due to non-combat causes. 

 

Non-combat deaths are normal on a battlefield. But Russian Telegram news channels report “extremely high” numbers of deaths linked to alcohol consumption and crime.

 

“Other leading causes of non-combat casualties likely include poor weapon handing drills, road traffic accidents and climatic injuries such as hypothermia. Russian commanders likely identify pervasive alcohol abuse as particularly detrimental to combat effectiveness,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate on the war.

 

Although completely foreign to Western professional miliary forces, alcohol consumption is an integral part of Russian culture, especially Russian military culture. 

 

“However, with heavy drinking pervasive across much of Russian society, it has long been seen as a tacitly accepted part of military life, even on combat operations,” the British Military Intelligence added.

 

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/04/putins-disaster-the-russian-military-is-destroying-itself-in-ukraine/

 

LOL

Edited April 4, 2023 by james22

[Spekulatius]

Sounds like Hitler in his bunker 1944/45:

 

[Xerxes]

These are very high consumption rate for Ukrainian air defense, if the classified documents can be believed.  
 

personally I think the media didn’t do any favours to Ukraine by turning them into superheroes and Marvel characters, keeping pressure off to re-supply. 
 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-may-run-out-of-air-defenses-by-may-leaked-pentagon-documents-warn-b96b0655
 

“So far, Ukraine has been successful in denying Russia the ability to use its manned aircraft deep inside Ukraine largely because of its network of Soviet-vintage long-range air-defense systems, primarily S-300 and Buk, which can intercept targets at altitudes above 20,000 feet. However, according to a secret purported Pentagon slide dated Feb. 28, Ukraine will have completely depleted its stock of Buk missiles by April 13, and of S-300 missiles by May 3, at current consumption rates.”

 

“Ukraine’s S-300 batteries were expending roughly 200 missiles a month, while Buk batteries fired about 69 missiles a month, the document said. Nasams and Iris-T expended a combined 64 missiles a month.“

 

I also like to recommend this Oddlot podcast episode. It is amazing. Looks at the optics of the war. What we are doing wrong. There is a lot of anti-Russian pow-wow* coming from Western media. Cut the crap. I agree with the podcast guest speaker.  

Edit: * before anyone gets excited, we are talking about Russian people, culture and history not The Kremlin 
 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000600529914

Edited April 10, 2023 by Xerxes

[shhughes1116]

5 hours ago, Xerxes said:

These are very high consumption rate for Ukrainian air defense, if the classified documents can be believed.  
 

personally I think the media didn’t do any favours to Ukraine by turning them into superheroes and Marvel characters, keeping pressure off to re-supply. 
 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-may-run-out-of-air-defenses-by-may-leaked-pentagon-documents-warn-b96b0655
 

“So far, Ukraine has been successful in denying Russia the ability to use its manned aircraft deep inside Ukraine largely because of its network of Soviet-vintage long-range air-defense systems, primarily S-300 and Buk, which can intercept targets at altitudes above 20,000 feet. However, according to a secret purported Pentagon slide dated Feb. 28, Ukraine will have completely depleted its stock of Buk missiles by April 13, and of S-300 missiles by May 3, at current consumption rates.”

 

“Ukraine’s S-300 batteries were expending roughly 200 missiles a month, while Buk batteries fired about 69 missiles a month, the document said. Nasams and Iris-T expended a combined 64 missiles a month.“

I think that timing aligns with the expected arrival of the Patriot systems and the Samp/t from Italy and France.  The long lead time for the Patriot systems and samp/t systems - lots of training i guess - suggests that NATO has been planning for this eventuality for quite some time, so maybe that suggests there is a kernel of truth in the leaked documents.

 

Part of me wonders if the leaked documents are a misdirection from the U.S. A little bit of truth, and a little bit of BS, intended to confuse the Russians in advance of the counter-offensive.

 

[backtothebeach]

20 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:

Part of me wonders if the leaked documents are a misdirection from the U.S.

Thinking the same. The way this was immediately plastered all over mainstream media, CNN, The Guardian, etc. Kind of suspicious.

[Xerxes]

There is certainly a complex cat and mouse game of deception, double-deception being played.

 

Yet, would U.S. leak classified documents showing its own spying of its allies (yes, not exactly news but still) plus potentially revealing how deep its intelligence network is in Russia ... all in a bid to fool the Russians to believe some S300 consumption rate, and to have them somehow commit their air assets into a trap !!

 

 

 

The plot thickens. A news story that doesn't tell you anything.

Ukraine alters counter-offensive plans after document leak - CNN | Reuters 

 

Where is this Scotch on the Rocks Koffman dude, when we need him to cut the bullshit.

 

Edited April 11, 2023 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

I think there is a good amount of deception going on, especially when you keep in mind that the first Kharkiv counter offensive mostly surprised the Russians.

I do think the Ukraine counteroffensive probably starts in the next 4 weeks. The next few month certainly are the sweet spot, because the Russian army is about to burn through the first wave of 300k recruits from last fall, given their current attrition rate. Putin made the mistake to hold off too long on the second wave of recruitment, which just about to get started and too late to plug holes in the frontline, if Ukraine indeed starts their spring offensive soon.

Russia needs at 300k of recruits annually just to maintain the status quo on the frontline, given their likely "consumption rate".

Edited April 11, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

^^ your post implies 300,000 or so have already become incapacitated.
 

Here is an alternative scenario: 

 

after the 300,000 mobilization last year and realizing the mediocre state of hardware needed to equip such a force, the so called Russian winter offensive was downgraded to a few token major stories, capped by the limitation of their hardware.  
 

most of the force sits behind the line as reserves, uncommitted, until a clear view of Ukrainian offensive presents itself, where it can throw itself against it. Wether it can do any good or not, remains to be seen. 
 

I think western point of view, since the 2022 Russian debacle, has a baseline assumption built into it that Russian general staff can only do stupid things. Just imagine that in 2021, the same Western point of view had assumed Russia will roll over eastern Ukraine.  
 

Beware of pendulum biases 

[Dinar]

https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/article-738940

 

Meanwhile, Ukrainians are busy glorifying Nazis.  Could not ask for a better gift to Putin, plays straight into his narrative for domestic consumption, and of course gives those who do not want to see their tax dollars/euros/pounds given to Ukraine plenty of ammunition.  

[Xerxes]

Doesn’t matter as long as western supplier of capital and weapons is not bothered. And they won’t be as they are indoctrinated by the media:

 

“For 2022 and going forward, until further notice, these are your bad guys… these are your good guys, … and this is Captain America, … these are your toys, hate and love them accordingly”

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/article-738940

 

Meanwhile, Ukrainians are busy glorifying Nazis.  Could not ask for a better gift to Putin, plays straight into his narrative for domestic consumption, and of course gives those who do not want to see their tax dollars/euros/pounds given to Ukraine plenty of ammunition.  

 

 

There are probably less Neo Nazis in Ukraine as a percentage of population than in the US or Germany for that matter:

 

In the 2019 Ukrainian parliamentary election the coalition of Svoboda and the other extreme-right political parties in Ukraine―National Corps, the Governmental Initiative of Yarosh, and the Right Sector―won only 2.15% of the vote combined and failed to pass the 5% threshold.^[5][6] No far-right parties gained seats in the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament), as they all failed to win any single-mandate constituency seat.^[6]