Russia-Ukrainian War - Political

[CGJB]

5 hours ago, Luke said:

Again, you guys picture it black and white. Selensky the white knight, Putin the Darth Vader. Ukraine not responsible at all for the tensions in the eastern regions, Ukraine the country with freedom and democracy that was helplessly attacked.

 

Looking at the facts thats not true, they have their own responsibility for the outbreak of the war, its in the books but nobody is talking about it. Selensky has responsibility for his men and people and was willing to buy the promises of the Bidenists to continue this brutal war no matter the costs and reject any contact with the russian state. What did it get them besides a slowly losing stalemate, hundreds of thousands of men dead, the country in ruins?

 

Trump and Vance say it like it is. The time where selensky can push for more and more western engagement against russia and more and more weapons with zero results is over. The country is ruined, there will never be peace without russia.

 

All i see is a lot of denial by all those who blindly cheered for ukraine without looking at the bigger picture. That trump and vance get hate for that was to be expected but they are doing the right thing. Its a wake up call for selensky.

This is 100% accurate, imo, especially the first two paragraphs. The refusal of people to acknowledge this -- in general across the collective west and on this board -- is remarkable.

[John Hjorth]

19 minutes ago, Luke said:

That surely will not be possible without Russia knowing way in advance and immediately escalating further, maybe going nuclear? What would you do then? Is dictated peace still unacceptable if those are possible outcomes?

 

@Luke,

 

Not any different than what has been going on lately. Just make the agreement public when done, so everybody know, provided by Reuters, AP News, Blommberg, CNN, CNBC, Wall Street Journal ... - all of them!

 

What I suggested about referendums in territories occupied may be totally unrealitistic in the situation and actual context, that I will admit.

 

Have you listened the speech of the Finnish President a few days ago at MSC2025 about his experience of loosing contact to family members [father, grandparents] suddenly living in Russia, after what has happened between Russia and Finland?

 

I think people here tend to forget that Russian military is alreday dearly roughed up, decimated and amputated.

[John Hjorth]

10 minutes ago, CGJB said:

This is 100% accurate, imo, especially the first two paragraphs. The refusal of people to acknowledge this -- in general across the collective west and on this board -- is remarkable.

 

@CGJB,

 

Your statement may be correct, perhaps not.

 

What really matters here is, that it is irrelevant. And so are some of @Lukes statements, that you are commenting on, too. Simply because the arguments are rear-view looking, in stead of forward looking.

 

Argumentation related solution solving needs by logic to be forward looking instead of rear-view looking, or the quarrel between the disagreeing parties continues endlessly with no solutions achieved.

 

The last sentense of mine here is also why I think no peaceful solution is feasible to this situation, because by now, no European leader trusts Putin, except as far as I know two : The leaders of Hungary and Belarus, who at this point do really not matter in the context.

[Luke]

"We are funding a stalemate and a meatgrinder"

 

 

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

The strongest military in the world on his side.

 

Like @james22 said - ambiguity is an enormous strategic advantage in final negotiations.

You or Putin have no idea what might be in store for Putin should he violate a final agreement.

 

To spell it out now would be a mistake, you save it for Putin.

 

I have a very hard time believing that Zelenksy is in a stronger postion against Putin without Trump.

That doesn’t make sense though.  The US was on Ukraines side during the Biden era - it amounted to military aid but not a security guarantee.  Now it’s not on Ukraine’s side.

 

What is this ‘ambiguity’ - spell out what exactly what that could mean?  You think Trump is going to drop a bomb on a Russian general?  I don’t.

 

The problem for Trump is he has already set out his limits publicly.  He has been consistent in his messaging for Ukraine for years now.

 

I’d love to be more wrong here, but as predicted he is soft on Putin and tough on Ukraine.

[flesh]

Not sure if sachs has all his facts straight as a lot of its personal experience and I basically believe nothing anybody says but insofar as what he says is true and when I out the I put the usa in Russia’s shoes, I’ve no doubt we would’ve been even more aggressive. 

Edited 2 hours ago by flesh

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Ulti said:

Probably temporary peace for 50%” minerals”, land and the 20000 Ukrainian kids Putin “ borrowed “

Not sure that’s a winning hand.  Why does he need the minerals deal when he could just make all those concessions to Putin right now.

 

He was told yesterday repeatedly he had no cards to play.  I think that’s actually true.

 

I don’t know where this winning hand stuff comes from.

[Gregmal]

This thread has been the biggest, most pointless waste of space on COBF since it’s inception. Should just close it up rather than open the spigot for more politics. 

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

It's almost like there are consequences for the EU's failing to invest in their defense (and energy independence) for the last 35 years.

Yep.  And today, what do we get from Europeans?

 

‘You are not alone’, and more ‘we stand with Ukraine’ bollox on Twitter.

 

Where is the special summit?  Europe could collect raise 1 trillion in aid for Ukraine by the end of next week.  1 trillion paid back over 30 years is nothing in the grand scheme of things.

 

It’s crazy.

 

 

[Mephistopheles]

18 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

This thread has been the biggest, most pointless waste of space on COBF since it’s inception. Should just close it up rather than open the spigot for more politics. 

 

 

Close second to the SHLD thread 

[Ulti]

23 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Not sure that’s a winning hand.  Why does he need the minerals deal when he could just make all those concessions to Putin right now.

 

He was told yesterday repeatedly he had no cards to play.  I think that’s actually true.

 

I don’t know where this winning hand stuff comes from.

Meant to be sarcastic… sorry

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, Mephistopheles said:

 

 

Close second to the SHLD thread 

LOL, you guys actually had a thread on SHLD?  What was there to argue about? Not trying to reopen old wounds - just curious.

[flesh]

This thread, although it would be fantastic if it simply contained people’s best ideas minus ad hominem attacks and or implications of idiocy on one’s counterpart, is important for investing. 

[Paarslaars]

 

[Sweet]

6 minutes ago, Ulti said:

Meant to be sarcastic… sorry

Oh lol.  I didn’t get it initially.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Sweet

[Gregmal]

9 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

 

 

Close second to the SHLD thread 

lol at least there were lessons learned there. Here it is a bunch of stupid made for television speculation mostly channeling simplistic good guys versus the bad guys storyline and every proclamation about an investment ramification has fallen flat on its face with astounding consistency. Heck even the “obvious” one, oil prices, has proven false. Its just a dumb amalgamation of war theory, history buff recitations, and politics. Put this thing to bed already. 

[John Hjorth]

5 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Yep.  And today, what do we get from Europeans?

 

‘You are not alone’, and more ‘we stand with Ukraine’ bollox on Twitter.

 

Where is the special summit?  Europe could collect raise 1 trillion in aid for Ukraine by the end of next week.  1 trillion paid back over 30 years is nothing in the grand scheme of things.

 

It’s crazy.

 

There certainly is an element of truth to the above, but to understand the shades of what's going on in Europe right now, you don't get a true, fair view, detailed and fine meshed picture of the development in the situation, unless you study the development by country.

 

The overall picture is, that there has been too much talk, lingering, 'hot air' venting and such stuff among the European countries about this, and absolute much too less action, several of the large European countries here being the worst ones, bacause the all have their individual issues to deal with, i.e. actually Spain being the worst culprit in that matter.

 

But there is an almost tectonic shift going on right now a long as we post here.

 

Posted here especially for James [ @james22 ] and Mike [ @cubsfan ], but  certainly also for all others.

[Gregmal]

18 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

LOL, you guys actually had a thread on SHLD?  What was there to argue about? Not trying to reopen old wounds - just curious.

Think it’s still around. Lot to learn reading the post mortem. Same for Seritage. 

[Sweet]

15 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

There certainly is an element of truth to the above, but to understand the shades of what's going on in Europe right now, you don't get a true, fair view, detailed and fine meshed picture of the development in the situation, unless you study the development by country.

 

The overall picture is, that there has been too much talk, lingering, 'hot air' venting and such stuff among the European countries about this, and absolute much too less action, several of the large European countries here being the worst ones, bacause the all have their individual issues to deal with, i.e. actually Spain being the worst culprit in that matter.

 

But there is an almost tectonic shift going on right now a long as we post here.

 

Posted here especially for James [ @james22 ] and Mike [ @cubsfan ], but  certainly also for all others.

I agree John, but it is painfully slow.  It was a car crash that could and should have been avoided.

[Sweet]

So there will actually be a summit in London tomorrow.

[John Hjorth]

16 minutes ago, flesh said:

This thread, although it would be fantastic if it simply contained people’s best ideas minus ad hominem attacks and or implications of idiocy on one’s counterpart, is important for investing. 

 

OK, I'll go first : 

 

It's perhaps not as specific as perhaps some here may want, but anyway : Do not .. - do not! - ... Never! - Ever! invest any of your hard earned currency units, whatever the currency of yours may be! - in Russia!

 

In short, I have a hard time to get to a better way of ruining your own life! Being p**ssed, in bad mood, depressed, resignating and whatnot becomes a part of your daily agenda!

 

Investing is meant to be fun and at the same time rewarding - why ever else to engage in it?

 

Here, with Russia, and if your a man, you're most likely doomed to loose your libido! - And if you're a woman, you'll likely become frigid!

 

[Xerxes]

I rewatch the last 10-15 min:  this was not a trap.
 

But Vance was clearly ready to pounce should Zelenskyy stepped out line, ….. knowing the resistance from Zelenskyy and steady flow of leaks. 
 

Trump goes with his instinct. As some point he just realized it won’t happen so he put him down. 
 

anyhow done for today on this topic 

Edited 30 minutes ago by Xerxes

[John Hjorth]

56 minutes ago, Sweet said:

I agree John, but it is painfully slow.  It was a car crash that could and should have been avoided.

 

I agree, @Sweet,

 

Painfully slow, to a degree, where it becomes so painfully slow, that it may be up for discussion if some European politicians really are up to the task, they are elected for, and doing their job orderly and properly. The voters' multiyear election cycles creates so much inertia in this whole democratic system, when things get volatile.

 

In short, democracy can actually at times become so cumbersome and bureaucratic.

[Sweet]

22 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

But Vance was clearly ready to pounce should Zelenskyy stepped out line, ….. knowing the resistance from Zelenskyy and steady flow of leaks. 

Yeh, it was actually Vance who started it by lecturing on diplomacy.  And Zelenskyy pointed out that had been tried.  Not quite sure how it blew up the way it did.

 

Incidentally, the day before Vance also did a similiar thing with UK PM Starmer about free speech, and Starmer hit back.  That didn’t blow up, and there were no claims of disrespect.

 

I think Vance has shown he is a bit of a liability. Trump and Zelenskyy managed to get on OK even though they did not see eye to eye.  Oddly, Vance claimed that Zelenskyy was trying to ‘litigate’ it publicly, yet it was he who started the public litigating.

 

I agree it wasn’t a plan to trap Zelenskyy, but surely Trump must be thinking that his VP kinda chucked a grenade. Zelenskyy threw back and it kicked off.

For reference this is Starmer vs Vance the day before:

 

Edited 6 minutes ago by Sweet