Russia-Ukrainian War

[rossef2]

8 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

The absense of news is a clue to how things are going. Omission is how our media filters information. Its certainly less horrible than the outright nonsense seen in other countries like Russia - we are lucky in that 'our' press is indeed the most free but its not immune to shaping the news around narratives/audiences/advertisers......Ukraine struggling to make headway with the offensive, after all our support and rhetoric, is counter to the narrative, fails to sell papers/clicks which loses you advertisers.

 

Our media aren't scumbags - but if/when things start going badly for the Ukrainians I would expect that we wouldn't hear about contemporaneously & in 'real-time' but rather a little after the fact and only when its hard to ignore. I would expect a little exaggeration too on Ukrainian successes. I think when you put that filter on things we are lucky to have a press/media as good as we do. 

 There has been a fair bit of nonsense coming from Western Media during the Ukraine conflict. Russia blowing up it's own gas pipeline to Europe, or Russia blowing up that dam when the Ukrainians were talking about that as a key target last year. 

[John Hjorth]

Impressive this morning early following how things are escalating, Twitter being in front of the Press on running basis about an hour or so, all the time.

 

Please don't confuse my use of the word "Impressive" as if it is something positive. I mean : A coup d'état confirmed on state television by Putin and a civil war in a country with nuclear weapon capacity - what can possibly go wrong? 

Edited June 24, 2023 by John Hjorth

[james22]

11 hours ago, james22 said:

Shoigu may not be suicidal, but seems he's the fall guy if this is a fake coup.

 

I would have guessed a fake coup as equally likely, but nope:

 

President Vladimir V. Putin on Saturday pledged “decisive actions” to quell what he called a treasonous, armed rebellion by his erstwhile ally, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, as he addressed the nation for the first time since the uprising started to unfold the day before.
 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/24/world/russia-ukraine-news#putin-strikes-a-tough-tone-in-his-first-address-since-the-uprising-started

[Luca]

Incredible whats going on, been listening to the news for the last few hours. In german state media they interviewed some military expert who was quite serious about the size of this threat. Military is tired and weakened, Prigoschin having respect by many, much better trained combatants than the average russian soldiers. This is taking a very interesting path...

Edited June 24, 2023 by Luca

[sleepydragon]

A while ago, I said Russian tank could reach Beijing in just a few hours and someone said Russia is never going to invade China.

Now if Russia is taken over by someone who oppose Xi's best buddy, Xi's plan to invade Taiwan can go out of the windows. 

[InsecurityAnalysis]

Wagner took Rostov overnight and in less than 24 hours have impressively made it half way to Moscow with a convoy. Seems like they're running along the main highway and avoiding the cities along the way altogether.

 

If you're the Kremlin, you need to remain vigilant on the loyalty of the Russian military to face Wagner.

[Luca]

3 minutes ago, InsecurityAnalysis said:

Wagner took Rostov overnight and in less than 24 hours have impressively made it half way to Moscow with a convoy. Seems like they're running along the main highway and avoiding the cities along the way altogether.

 

If you're the Kremlin, you need to remain vigilant on the loyalty of the Russian military to face Wagner.

Incredible development, wouldnt be surprised if many soldiers who are tired of the war join these movements. Anything can happen really but this war takes one hell of a turn right now.

 

@sleepydragon Yeah, China is watching and so much is going wrong for russia, taiwan looking more and more unattractive...

[maplevalue]

Am I thinking about the implications of this right, two possible scenarios?

 

1. coup -> regime change somewhat quickly -> Ukraine war ends soon -> supply chains normalize, energy prices come down?

2. coup attempt -> things can get messy -> heightened uncertainty -> even more disrupted supply chains?

Edited June 24, 2023 by maplevalue

[Paarslaars]

Ukraine will become an interesting place to invest. Lots of NATO/Ru cash going there to recovery the country.

 

Supply chain will take a while, especially coming from Russia.

[Luca]

20 minutes ago, maplevalue said:

Am I thinking about the implications of this right, two possible scenarios?

 

1. coup -> regime change somewhat quickly -> Ukraine war ends soon -> supply chains normalize, energy prices come down?

2. coup attempt -> things can get messy -> heightened uncertainty -> even more disrupted supply chains?

Questionable how this new regime would position themselves, could become even worse. It will definitely shake things up good or bad.

[changegonnacome]

Moving forward when people reference a counter-offensive please specify whether it is the Ukrainian or Russian counteroffensive you are talking about…..this could get confusing  

[Xerxes]

With “Putin’ Chef” barreling toward Moscow at the head of a rebel army, perhaps that is more of an opportunity for Kremlin. 
 

A use of a low-yield tactical nuke would kill many birds with one stone:

 

(1) break the post-1945 nuclear taboo and normalize its usage (2) showcase an actual red line being crossed with the pillar of state being threaten by an insurrection (3) not use it directly against Ukraine (4) kill a tiresome Captain Rohm (5) intimidate Ukraine and others 

[Viking]

So is the threat from Wagner sufficient to force Russia to pull troops from Ukraine? Wagner exiting from Ukraine must be a significant development… they claim to have 25,000 troops. If the Wagner threat is real it makes sense to me Russia would prioritize putting down Wagner over empire building in Ukraine. Hopefully there is a way for Ukraine to exploit the current turmoil in Russia. 
 

I am already thinking ahead to Monday and how financial markets will open; especially oil. Yes, lots will likely change over the next 48 hours. Crazy times.

—————

We have yet another example of just how badly Putin miscalculated when he decided to invade Ukraine. It is looking more and more like one of the great blunders / catastrophes of the post WWII era. And it might end up costing him his job. 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Viking

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

With “Putin’ Chef” barreling toward Moscow at the head of a rebel army, perhaps that is more of an opportunity for Kremlin. 
 

A use of a low-yield tactical nuke would kill many birds with one stone:

 

(1) break the post-1945 nuclear taboo and normalize its usage (2) showcase an actual red line being crossed with the pillar of state being threaten by an insurrection (3) not use it directly against Ukraine (4) kill a tiresome Captain Rohm (5) intimidate Ukraine and others 

Putin doesn’t have many options with few loyal troops between Moscow and Wagner, but tactical nukes are not very effective against troops. They are typically far too dispersed. His best bet would be to wipe Rostov off the map with something larger in order to decapitate the insurrection, but the consequences are entirely terrible for Putin.

[Xerxes]

2 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

Putin doesn’t have many options with few loyal troops between Moscow and Wagner, but tactical nukes are not very effective against troops. They are typically far too dispersed. His best bet would be to wipe Rostov off the map with something larger in order to decapitate the insurrection, but the consequences are entirely terrible for Putin.

Nor did a young Peter the Great have much in forces as insurrection was breaking out in Moscow, before pillars of state and interest group moved to protect the Tsar and decapitate the insurrectionist. 
 

With mini-nukes the aim is definitely not about being effective. Nor is the aim about Rostov, which is a Russian city. 
 

Anyway, all speculation on my part. I barely read anything on this “developing story” beside few tweets shown above. And what is on CNN yesterday. 

 

[cubsfan]

Does Putin control his own Air Force?

 

Why doesn’t he take out the Wagner convoys with Air power?

 

(here’s hoping he doesn’t)

[Gregmal]

I don’t understand why financial markets should care, at all. When this started, everyone made a huge deal of this. Told us how devastating it would be. How much it would push inflation higher long term. And that turned out to be completely wrong. Essentially a nothing burger. Oil was $90 a barrel pre war. Today it’s barely holding $70. This was little more than reality TV for the warmongers and pro USA propaganda for the media and politicians. 
 

So sure, there’s a new twist in Russia, but why should we care in terms of its larger impact here?

[Xerxes]

14 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I don’t understand why financial markets should care, at all. When this started, everyone made a huge deal of this. Told us how devastating it would be. How much it would push inflation higher long term. And that turned out to be completely wrong. Essentially a nothing burger. Oil was $90 a barrel pre war. Today it’s barely holding $70. This was little more than reality TV for the warmongers and pro USA propaganda for the media and politicians. 
 

So sure, there’s a new twist in Russia, but why should we care in terms of its larger impact here?

Agreed. The economic decoupling has largely happened.
 

Sure few % up and down here and there on the markets. But changing of the guards at the Kremlin is not going to mean much if it is just changing of the guard.  
 

The market will either open higher or lower and no doubt business media will build story around whichever comes. 
 

We are in the bull market of intellectualization of geopolitical content.

[John Hjorth]

 

[Paarslaars]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

I don’t understand why financial markets should care, at all. When this started, everyone made a huge deal of this. Told us how devastating it would be. How much it would push inflation higher long term. And that turned out to be completely wrong. Essentially a nothing burger. Oil was $90 a barrel pre war. Today it’s barely holding $70. This was little more than reality TV for the warmongers and pro USA propaganda for the media and politicians. 
 

So sure, there’s a new twist in Russia, but why should we care in terms of its larger impact here?

I believe there was a substantial impact on wheat prices though, Ukraine is a large supplier there.

[gfp]

This lady pretty much called it correctly 12 hours ago -

 

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

There are also reports that Wagner fighters are extremely unhappy that Prigozhin made a deal, as well as regular Russian army units that had joined the insurrection. Whatever deal fir his personal protection he made isn’t likely to protect them. So this may not be over.

 

And even if it is this has ended, it still has caused a major snafu in Russian logistics right as they face a renewed offensive. 

[Gregmal]

So another hyped up, American media created cocktail, that turns out impotent. Nice.

[ValueArb]

8 minutes ago, gfp said:

This lady pretty much called it correctly 12 hours ago -

 

Nope, she’s nuts. There is no way Putin assented to a plan that made him look this weak, just to fire two guys he could have fired anytime he wanted to.

 

It’s a pretty bad plan when it loses 7 helicopters desperately needed to defend against the Ukrainian offensive, and control of the strategic hub for supplies, men and ammo for their front. But it’s even worse to have all of Russia reading Prigozhins bluster about how the war was a lie, and that Russia needs a new president.

Finally, the most terrible effect of all was all the Russian military units joining Wagner instead of fighting them. The FSB was fleeing offices everywhere on the path to Moscow knowing it wasn’t going to be defended.

Edited June 24, 2023 by ValueArb

[Luca]

Yep, i think nobody really knows at the moment. Waiting for official statements by russian government.